871 resultados para nonparametric rationality tests
Resumo:
This paper presents a comparison between theoretical predictions and experimental results from a pin-on-disc test rig exploring friction-induced vibration. The model is based on a linear stability analysis of two systems coupled by sliding contact at a single point. Predictions are compared with a large volume of measured squeal initiations that have been post-processed to extract growth rates and frequencies at the onset of squeal. Initial tests reveal the importance of including both finite contact stiffness and a velocity-dependent dynamic model for friction, giving predictions that accounted for nearly all major clusters of squeal initiations from 0 to 5 kHz. However, a large number of initiations occurred at disc mode frequencies that were not predicted with the same parameters. These frequencies proved remarkably difficult to destabilise, requiring an implausibly high coefficient of friction. An attempt has been made to estimate the dynamic friction behaviour directly from the squeal initiation data, revealing complex-valued frequency-dependent parameters for a new model of linearised dynamic friction. These new parameters readily destabilised the disc modes and provided a consistent model that could account for virtually all initiations from 0 to 15 kHz. The results suggest that instability thresholds for a wide range of squeal-type behaviour can be predicted, but they highlight the central importance of a correct understanding and accurate description of dynamic friction at the sliding interface. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
We present reaction free energy calculations using the adaptive buffered force mixing quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics (bf-QM/MM) method. The bf-QM/MM method combines nonadaptive electrostatic embedding QM/MM calculations with extended and reduced QM regions to calculate accurate forces on all atoms, which can be used in free energy calculation methods that require only the forces and not the energy. We calculate the free energy profiles of two reactions in aqueous solution: the nucleophilic substitution reaction of methyl chloride with a chloride anion and the deprotonation reaction of the tyrosine side chain. We validate the bf-QM/MM method against a full QM simulation, and show that it correctly reproduces both geometrical properties and free energy profiles of the QM model, while the electrostatic embedding QM/MM method using a static QM region comprising only the solute is unable to do so. The bf-QM/MM method is not explicitly dependent on the details of the QM and MM methods, so long as it is possible to compute QM forces in a small region and MM forces in the rest of the system, as in a conventional QM/MM calculation. It is simple, with only a few parameters needed to control the QM calculation sizes, and allows (but does not require) a varying and adapting QM region which is necessary for simulating solutions.
Resumo:
Semi-supervised clustering is the task of clustering data points into clusters where only a fraction of the points are labelled. The true number of clusters in the data is often unknown and most models require this parameter as an input. Dirichlet process mixture models are appealing as they can infer the number of clusters from the data. However, these models do not deal with high dimensional data well and can encounter difficulties in inference. We present a novel nonparameteric Bayesian kernel based method to cluster data points without the need to prespecify the number of clusters or to model complicated densities from which data points are assumed to be generated from. The key insight is to use determinants of submatrices of a kernel matrix as a measure of how close together a set of points are. We explore some theoretical properties of the model and derive a natural Gibbs based algorithm with MCMC hyperparameter learning. The model is implemented on a variety of synthetic and real world data sets.
Resumo:
Physical models are widely used in the study of geotechnical earthquake engineering phenomena, and the comparison of modelling results to observations from field reconnaissance provides a transparent means of evaluating the design of our physical models. This paper compares centrifuge tests of pile groups in laterally spreading slopes with the response of piled bridge abutments in the 2011 Christchurch earthquake. We show that the model foundation's fixity conditions strongly affect the success with which the mechanism of response of the real abutments is replicated in the tests. © 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Resumo:
Vibration and acoustic analysis at higher frequencies faces two challenges: computing the response without using an excessive number of degrees of freedom, and quantifying its uncertainty due to small spatial variations in geometry, material properties and boundary conditions. Efficient models make use of the observation that when the response of a decoupled vibro-acoustic subsystem is sufficiently sensitive to uncertainty in such spatial variations, the local statistics of its natural frequencies and mode shapes saturate to universal probability distributions. This holds irrespective of the causes that underly these spatial variations and thus leads to a nonparametric description of uncertainty. This work deals with the identification of uncertain parameters in such models by using experimental data. One of the difficulties is that both experimental errors and modeling errors, due to the nonparametric uncertainty that is inherent to the model type, are present. This is tackled by employing a Bayesian inference strategy. The prior probability distribution of the uncertain parameters is constructed using the maximum entropy principle. The likelihood function that is subsequently computed takes the experimental information, the experimental errors and the modeling errors into account. The posterior probability distribution, which is computed with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, provides a full uncertainty quantification of the identified parameters, and indicates how well their uncertainty is reduced, with respect to the prior information, by the experimental data. © 2013 Taylor & Francis Group, London.
Resumo:
The development is described of a computer-controlled bowing machine that can bow a string with a range of gestures that match or exceed the capabilities of a human violinist. Example measurements of string vibration under controlled bowing conditions are shown, including a Schelleng diagram and a set of Guettler diagrams, for the open D string of a cello. For some results a rosin-coated rod was used in place of a conventional bow, to provide quantitative data for comparison with theoretical predictions. The results show qualitative consistency with the predictions of Schelleng and Guettler, but details are revealed that go beyond the limitations of existing models. © S. Hirzel Verlag · EAA.
Resumo:
Copyright © 2014, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (www.aaai.org). All rights reserved. This paper presents the beginnings of an automatic statistician, focusing on regression problems. Our system explores an open-ended space of statistical models to discover a good explanation of a data set, and then produces a detailed report with figures and natural- language text. Our approach treats unknown regression functions non- parametrically using Gaussian processes, which has two important consequences. First, Gaussian processes can model functions in terms of high-level properties (e.g. smoothness, trends, periodicity, changepoints). Taken together with the compositional structure of our language of models this allows us to automatically describe functions in simple terms. Second, the use of flexible nonparametric models and a rich language for composing them in an open-ended manner also results in state- of-the-art extrapolation performance evaluated over 13 real time series data sets from various domains.
Resumo:
Aim: To test a vicariant speciation hypothesis derived from geological evidence of large-scale changes in drainage patterns in the late Miocene that affected the drainages in the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau. Location: The Tibetan Plateau and adjacent areas. Methods: The cytochrome b DNA sequences of 30 species of the genus Schizothorax from nine different river systems were analysed. These DNA sequences were analysed using parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. The approximately unbiased and Shimodaira-Hasegawa tests were applied to evaluate the statistical significance of the shortest trees relative to alternative hypotheses. Dates of divergences between lineages were estimated using the nonparametric rate smoothing method, and confidence intervals of dates were obtained by parametric bootstrapping. Results: The phylogenetic relationships recovered from molecular data were inconsistent with traditional taxonomy, but apparently reflected geographical associations with rivers. Within the genus Schizothorax, we observed a divergence between the lineages from the Irrawaddy-Lhuit and Tsangpo-Parlung rivers, and tentatively dated this vicariant event back to the late Miocene (7.3-6.8 Ma). We also observed approximately simultaneous geographical splits within drainages of the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau, the Irrawaddy, the Yangtze and the Mekong-Salween rivers in the late Miocene (7.1-6.2 Ma). Main conclusions: Our molecular evidence tentatively highlights the importance of palaeoriver connections and the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau in understanding the evolution of the genus Schizothorax. Molecular estimates of divergence times allowed us to date these vicariant scenarios back to the late Miocene, which agrees with geological suggestions for the separation of these drainages caused by tectonic uplift in south-eastern Tibet. Our results indicated the substantial role of vicariant-based speciation in shaping the current distribution pattern of the genus Schizothorax.