A gray-box neural network-based model identification and fault estimation scheme for nonlinear dynamic systems

A novel gray-box neural network model (GBNNM), including multi-layer perception (MLP) neural network (NN) and integrators, is proposed for a model identification and fault estimation (MIFE) scheme. With the GBNNM, both the nonlinearity and dynamics of a class of nonlinear dynamic systems can be approximated. Unlike previous NN-based model identification methods, the GBNNM directly inherits system dynamics and separately models system nonlinearities. This model corresponds well with the object system and is easy to build. The GBNNM is embedded online as a normal model reference to obtain the quantitative residual between the object system output and the GBNNM output. This residual can accurately indicate the fault offset value, so it is suitable for differing fault severities. To further estimate the fault parameters (FPs), an improved extended state observer (ESO) using the same NNs (IESONN) from the GBNNM is proposed to avoid requiring the knowledge of ESO nonlinearity. Then, the proposed MIFE scheme is applied for reaction wheels (RW) in a satellite attitude control system (SACS). The scheme using the GBNNM is compared with other NNs in the same fault scenario, and several partial loss of effect (LOE) faults with different severities are considered to validate the effectiveness of the FP estimation and its superiority.

Demand Response for Residential Appliances in a Smart Electricity Distribution Network: Utility and Customer Perspectives

This thesis introduces advanced Demand Response algorithms for residential appliances to provide benefits for both utility and customers. The algorithms are engaged in scheduling appliances appropriately in a critical peak day to alleviate network peak, adverse voltage conditions and wholesale price spikes also reducing the cost of residential energy consumption. Initially, a demand response technique via customer reward is proposed, where the utility controls appliances to achieve network improvement. Then, an improved real-time pricing scheme is introduced and customers are supported by energy management schedulers to actively participate in it. Finally, the demand response algorithm is improved to provide frequency regulation services.

Understanding public response to a congestion charge : a random-effects ordered logit approach

Public acceptance is consistently listed as having an enormous impact on the implementation and success of a congestion charge scheme. This paper investigates public acceptance of such a scheme in Australia. Surveys were conducted in Brisbane and Melbourne, the two fastest growing Australian cities. Using an ordered logit modeling approach, the survey data including stated preferences were analyzed to pinpoint the important factors influencing people’s attitudes to a congestion charge and, in turn, to their transport mode choices. To accommodate the nature of, and to account for the resulting heterogeneity of the panel data, random effects were considered in the models. As expected, this study found that the amount of the congestion charge and the financial benefits of implementing it have a significant influence on respondents’ support for the charge and on the likelihood of their taking a bus to city areas. However, respondents’ current primary transport mode for travelling to the city areas has a more pronounced impact. Meanwhile, respondents’ perceptions of the congestion charge’s role in protecting the environment by reducing vehicle emissions, and of the extent to which the charge would mean that they travelled less frequently to the city for shopping or entertainment, also have a significant impact on their level of support for its implementation. We also found and explained notable differences across two cities. Finally, findings from this study have been fully discussed in relation to the literature.

Component modeling for SCADA network mapping

Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition systems (SCADA) are widely used to control critical infrastructure automatically. Capturing and analyzing packet-level traffic flowing through such a network is an essential requirement for problems such as legacy network mapping and fault detection. Within the framework of captured network traffic, we present a simple modeling technique, which supports the mapping of the SCADA network topology via traffic monitoring. By characterizing atomic network components in terms of their input-output topology and the relationship between their data traffic logs, we show that these modeling primitives have good compositional behaviour, which allows complex networks to be modeled. Finally, the predictions generated by our model are found to be in good agreement with experimentally obtained traffic.

The impact of a congestion pricing exemption on the demand for new energy efficient vehicles in Stockholm

As governments seek to transition to more efficient vehicle fleets, one strategy has been to incentivize ‘green’ vehicle choice by exempting some of these vehicles from road user charges. As an example, to stimulate sales of Energy-Efficient Vehicles (EEVs) in Sweden, some of these automobiles were exempted from Stockholm’s congestion tax. In this paper the effect this policy had on the demand for new, privately-owned, exempt EEVs is assessed by first estimating a model of vehicle choice and then by applying this model to simulate vehicle alternative market shares under different policy scenarios. The database used to calibrate the model includes owner-specific demographics merged with vehicle registry data for all new private vehicles registered in Stockholm County during 2008. Characteristics of individuals with a higher propensity to purchase an exempt EEV were identified. The most significant factors included intra-cordon residency (positive), distance from home to the CBD (negative), and commuting across the cordon (positive). By calculating vehicle shares from the vehicle choice model and then comparing these estimates to a simulated scenario where the congestion tax exemption was inactive, the exemption was estimated to have substantially increased the share of newly purchased, private, exempt EEVs in Stockholm by 1.8% (+/- 0.3%; 95% C.I.) to a total share of 18.8%. This amounts to an estimated 10.7% increase in private, exempt EEV purchases during 2008 i.e. 519 privately owned, exempt EEVs.

An interpretative structural modeling based network reconfiguration strategy for power systems

The network reconfiguration is an important stage of restoring a power system after a complete blackout or a local outage. Reasonable planning of the network reconfiguration procedure is essential for rapidly restoring the power system concerned. An approach for evaluating the importance of a line is first proposed based on the line contraction concept. Then, the interpretative structural modeling (ISM) is employed to analyze the relationship among the factors having impacts on the network reconfiguration. The security and speediness of restoring generating units are considered with priority, and a method is next proposed to select the generating unit to be restored by maximizing the restoration benefit with both the generation capacity of the restored generating unit and the importance of the line in the restoration path considered. Both the start-up sequence of generating units and the related restoration paths are optimized together in the proposed method, and in this way the shortcomings of separately solving these two issues in the existing methods are avoided. Finally, the New England 10-unit 39-bus power system and the Guangdong power system in South China are employed to demonstrate the basic features of the proposed method.

Smart coordinated distribution system control to enable high level penetration of rooftop PVs

This thesis addresses voltage violation problem, the most critical issue associated with high level penetration of photovoltaic (PV) in electricity distribution network. A coordinated control algorithm using the reactive power from PV inverter and integrated battery energy storage has been developed and investigated in different network scenarios in the thesis. Probable variations associated with solar generation, end-user participation and network parameters are also considered. Furthermore, a unified data model and well-defined communication protocol to ensure the smooth coordination between all the components during the operation of the algorithm is described. Finally this thesis incorporated the uncertainties of solar generation using probabilistic load flow analysis.

A Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network framework for passenger facilitation modelling

This paper presents a novel framework for the modelling of passenger facilitation in a complex environment. The research is motivated by the challenges in the airport complex system, where there are multiple stakeholders, differing operational objectives and complex interactions and interdependencies between different parts of the airport system. Traditional methods for airport terminal modelling do not explicitly address the need for understanding causal relationships in a dynamic environment. Additionally, existing Bayesian Network (BN) models, which provide a means for capturing causal relationships, only present a static snapshot of a system. A method to integrate a BN complex systems model with stochastic queuing theory is developed based on the properties of the Poisson and exponential distributions. The resultant Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) framework enables the simulation of arbitrary factors, their relationships, and their effects on passenger flow and vice versa. A case study implementation of the framework is demonstrated on the inbound passenger facilitation process at Brisbane International Airport. The predicted outputs of the model, in terms of cumulative passenger flow at intermediary and end points in the inbound process, are found to have an R2 goodness of fit of 0.9994 and 0.9982 respectively over a 10 h test period. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on a number of usage scenarios including causal analysis and ‘what-if’ analysis. This framework provides the ability to analyse and simulate a dynamic complex system, and can be applied to other socio-technical systems such as hospitals.

A supervisory load-leveling approach to improve the voltage profile in distribution network

This paper suggests a supervisory control for storage units to provide load leveling in distribution networks. This approach coordinates storage units to charge during high generation and discharge during peak load times, while utilized to improve the network voltage profile indirectly. The aim of this control strategy is to establish power sharing on a pro rata basis for storage units. As a case study, a practical distribution network with 30 buses is simulated and the results are provided.

An efficient forward-backward algorithm to MSDEPP including batteries and voltage control devices

Electric distribution networks are now in the era of transition from passive to active distribution networks with the integration of energy storage devices. Optimal usage of batteries and voltage control devices along with other upgrades in network needs a distribution expansion planning (DEP) considering inter-temporal dependencies of stages. This paper presents an efficient approach for solving multi-stage distribution expansion planning problems (MSDEPP) based on a forward-backward approach considering energy storage devices such as batteries and voltage control devices such as voltage regulators and capacitors. The proposed algorithm is compared with three other techniques including full dynamic, forward fill-in, backward pull-out from the point of view of their precision and their computational efficiency. The simulation results for the IEEE 13 bus network show the proposed pseudo-dynamic forward-backward approach presents good efficiency in precision and time of optimization.

DS-VBF : dual sink vector-based routing protocol for underwater wireless sensor network

Underwater wireless sensor networks (UWSNs) have become the seat of researchers' attention recently due to their proficiency to explore underwater areas and design different applications for marine discovery and oceanic surveillance. One of the main objectives of each deployed underwater network is discovering the optimized path over sensor nodes to transmit the monitored data to onshore station. The process of transmitting data consumes energy of each node, while energy is limited in UWSNs. So energy efficiency is a challenge in underwater wireless sensor network. Dual sinks vector based forwarding (DS-VBF) takes both residual energy and location information into consideration as priority factors to discover an optimized routing path to save energy in underwater networks. The modified routing protocol employs dual sinks on the water surface which improves network lifetime. According to deployment of dual sinks, packet delivery ratio and the average end to end delay are enhanced. Based on our simulation results in comparison with VBF, average end to end delay reduced more than 80%, remaining energy increased 10%, and the increment of packet reception ratio was about 70%.

Overvoltage and overloading prevention using coordinated PV inverters in distribution network

Overvoltage and overloading due to high utilization of PVs are the main power quality concerns for future distribution power systems. This paper proposes a distributed control coordination strategy to manage multiple PVs within a network to overcome these issues. PVs reactive power is used to deal with over-voltages and PVs active power curtailment are regulated to avoid overloading. The proposed control structure is used to share the required contribution fairly among PVs, in proportion to their ratings. This approach is examined on a practical distribution network with multiple PVs.

Application of a Bayesian Network complex system model to a successful community electricity demand reduction program

Utilities worldwide are focused on supplying peak electricity demand reliably and cost effectively, requiring a thorough understanding of all the factors influencing residential electricity use at peak times. An electricity demand reduction project based on comprehensive residential consumer engagement was established within an Australian community in 2008, and by 2011, peak demand had decreased to below pre-intervention levels. This paper applied field data discovered through qualitative in-depth interviews of 22 residential households at the community to a Bayesian Network complex system model to examine whether the system model could explain successful peak demand reduction in the case study location. The knowledge and understanding acquired through insights into the major influential factors and the potential impact of changes to these factors on peak demand would underpin demand reduction intervention strategies for a wider target group.

Engineering cellulose nanofibre suspensions to control filtration resistance and sheet permeability

This study examines and quantifies the effect of adding polyelectrolytes to cellulose nanofibre suspensions on the gel point of cellulose nanofibre suspensions, which is the lowest solids concentration at which the suspension forms a continuous network. The lower the gel point, the faster the drainage time to produce a sheet and the higher the porosity of the final sheet formed. Two new techniques were designed to measure the dynamic compressibility and the drainability of nanocellulose–polyelectrolyte suspensions. We developed a master curve which showed that the independent variable controlling the behaviour of nanocellulose suspensions and its composite is the structure of the flocculated suspension which is best quantified as the gel point. This was independent of the type of polyelectrolyte used. At an addition level of 2 mg/g of nanofibre, a reduction in gel point over 50 % was achieved using either a high molecular weight (13 MDa) linear cationic polyacrylamide (CPAM, 40 % charge), a dendrimer polyethylenimine of high molecular weight of 750,000 Da (HPEI) or even a low molecular weight of 2000 Da (LPEI). There was no significant difference in the minimum gel point achieved, despite the difference in polyelectrolyte morphology and molecular weight. In this paper, we show that the gel point controls the flow through the fibre suspension, even when comparing fibre suspensions with solids content above the gel point. A lower gel point makes it easier for water to drain through the fibre network,reducing the pressure required to achieve a given dewatering rate and reducing the filtering time required to form a wet laid sheet. We further show that the lower gel point partially controls the structure of the wet laid sheet after it is dried. Halving the gel point increased the air permeability of the dry sheet by 37, 46 and 25 %, when using CPAM, HPEI and LPEI, respectively. The resistance to liquid flow was reduced by 74 and 90 %, when using CPAM and LPEI. Analysing the paper formed shows that sheet forming process and final sheet properties can be engineered and controlled by adding polyelectrolytes to the nanofibre suspension.