A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

Enhancing MPLS QoS routing algorithms by using the network protection degree paradigm

IP based networks still do not have the required degree of reliability required by new multimedia services, achieving such reliability will be crucial in the success or failure of the new Internet generation. Most of existing schemes for QoS routing do not take into consideration parameters concerning the quality of the protection, such as packet loss or restoration time. In this paper, we define a new paradigm to develop new protection strategies for building reliable MPLS networks, based on what we have called the network protection degree (NPD). This NPD consists of an a priori evaluation, the failure sensibility degree (FSD), which provides the failure probability and an a posteriori evaluation, the failure impact degree (FID), to determine the impact on the network in case of failure. Having mathematical formulated these components, we point out the most relevant components. Experimental results demonstrate the benefits of the utilization of the NPD, when used to enhance some current QoS routing algorithms to offer a certain degree of protection

Improvement of antibiotic prescription in outpatient care: a cluster-randomized intervention study using a sentinel surveillance network of physicians.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of implementing guidelines, coupled with individual feedback, on antibiotic prescribing behaviour of primary care physicians in Switzerland. METHODS: One hundred and forty general practices from a representative Swiss sentinel network of primary care physicians participated in this cluster-randomized prospective intervention study. The intervention consisted of providing guidelines on treatment of respiratory tract infections (RTIs) and uncomplicated lower urinary tract infections (UTIs), coupled with sustained, regular feedback on individual antibiotic prescription behaviour during 2 years. The main aims were: (i) to increase the percentage of prescriptions of penicillins for all RTIs treated with antibiotics; (ii) to increase the percentage of trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole prescriptions for all uncomplicated lower UTIs treated with antibiotics; (iii) to decrease the percentage of quinolone prescriptions for all cases of exacerbated COPD (eCOPD) treated with antibiotics; and (iv) to decrease the proportion of sinusitis and other upper RTIs treated with antibiotics. The study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01358916). RESULTS: While the percentage of antibiotics prescribed for sinusitis or other upper RTIs and the percentage of quinolones prescribed for eCOPD did not differ between the intervention group and the control group, there was a significant increase in the percentage of prescriptions of penicillins for all RTIs treated with antibiotics [57% versus 49%, OR=1.42 (95% CI 1.08-1.89), P=0.01] and in the percentage of trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole prescriptions for all uncomplicated lower UTIs treated with antibiotics [35% versus 19%, OR=2.16 (95% CI 1.19-3.91), P=0.01] in the intervention group. CONCLUSIONS: In our setting, implementing guidelines, coupled with sustained individual feedback, was not able to reduce the proportion of sinusitis and other upper RTIs treated with antibiotics, but increased the use of recommended antibiotics for RTIs and UTIs, as defined by the guidelines.

Automatic self-configuration of the logical network using distributed software agents

We present a system for dynamic network resource configuration in environments with bandwidth reservation. The proposed system is completely distributed and automates the mechanisms for adapting the logical network to the offered load. The system is able to manage dynamically a logical network such as a virtual path network in ATM or a label switched path network in MPLS or GMPLS. The system design and implementation is based on a multi-agent system (MAS) which make the decisions of when and how to change a logical path. Despite the lack of a centralised global network view, results show that MAS manages the network resources effectively, reducing the connection blocking probability and, therefore, achieving better utilisation of network resources. We also include details of its architecture and implementation

An ATM distributed simulator for network management research

Due to the high cost of a large ATM network working up to full strength to apply our ideas about network management, i.e., dynamic virtual path (VP) management and fault restoration, we developed a distributed simulation platform for performing our experiments. This platform also had to be capable of other sorts of tests, such as connection admission control (CAC) algorithms, routing algorithms, and accounting and charging methods. The platform was posed as a very simple, event-oriented and scalable simulation. The main goal was the simulation of a working ATM backbone network with a potentially large number of nodes (hundreds). As research into control algorithms and low-level, or rather cell-level methods, was beyond the scope of this study, the simulation took place at a connection level, i.e., there was no real traffic of cells. The simulated network behaved like a real network accepting and rejecting SNMP ones, or experimental tools using the API node

Availability analysis of GMPLS connections based on physical network topology

This paper presents a study of connection availability in GMPLS over optical transport networks (OTN) taking into account different network topologies. Two basic path protection schemes are considered and compared with the no protection case. The selected topologies are heterogeneous in geographic coverage, network diameter, link lengths, and average node degree. Connection availability is also computed considering the reliability data of physical components and a well-known network availability model. Results show several correspondences between suitable path protection algorithms and several network topology characteristics

Dynamic bandwidth management as part of an integrated network management system based on distributed agents

We present a system for dynamic network resource configuration in environments with bandwidth reservation and path restoration mechanisms. Our focus is on the dynamic bandwidth management results, although the main goal of the system is the integration of the different mechanisms that manage the reserved paths (bandwidth, restoration, and spare capacity planning). The objective is to avoid conflicts between these mechanisms. The system is able to dynamically manage a logical network such as a virtual path network in ATM or a label switch path network in MPLS. This system has been designed to be modular in the sense that in can be activated or deactivated, and it can be applied only in a sub-network. The system design and implementation is based on a multi-agent system (MAS). We also included details of its architecture and implementation

Parental influences on pathogen resistance in brown trout embryos and effects of outcrossing within a river network.

Phenotypic plasticity can increase tolerance to heterogeneous environments but the elevations and slopes of reaction norms are often population specific. Disruption of locally adapted reaction norms through outcrossing can lower individual viability. Here, we sampled five genetically distinct populations of brown trout (Salmo trutta) from within a river network, crossed them in a full-factorial design, and challenged the embryos with the opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas fluorescens. By virtue of our design, we were able to disentangle effects of genetic crossing distance from sire and dam effects on early life-history traits. While pathogen infection did not increase mortality, it was associated with delayed hatching of smaller larvae with reduced yolk sac reserves. We found no evidence of a relationship between genetic distance (W, FST) and the expression of early-life history traits. Moreover, hybrids did not differ in phenotypic means or reaction norms in comparison to offspring from within-population crosses. Heritable variation in early life-history traits was found to remain stable across the control and pathogen environments. Our findings show that outcrossing within a rather narrow geographical scale can have neutral effects on F1 hybrid viability at the embryonic stage, i.e. at a stage when environmental and genetic effects on phenotypes are usually large.

Disseny i implementació d’una “Storage Area Network”

El següent projecte consisteix en analitzar com funciona un sistema SAN, per tal de veure comes pot obtenir un millor rendiment. L’objectiu principal es saber com es comportarà la nostra SAN muntada amb iSCSI a través de la xarxa, volem veure quines són les operacions, les dades i els resultats que comporta crear una RAID a través de discos no locals d’un ordinador i a través d’una xarxa LAN

Sentinel network for monitoring in vitro susceptibility of Plasmodium falciparum to antimalarial drugs in Colombia: a proof of concept

Drug resistance is one of the principal obstacles blocking worldwide malaria control. In Colombia, malaria remains a major public health concern and drug-resistant parasites have been reported. In vitro drug susceptibility assays are a useful tool for monitoring the emergence and spread of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum. The present study was conducted as a proof of concept for an antimalarial drug resistance surveillance network based on in vitro susceptibility testing in Colombia. Sentinel laboratories were set up in three malaria endemic areas. The enzyme linked immunosorbent assay-histidine rich protein 2 and schizont maturation methods were used to assess the susceptibility of fresh P. falciparum isolates to six antimalarial drugs. This study demonstrates that an antimalarial drug resistance surveillance network based on in vitro methods is feasible in the field with the participation of a research institute, local health institutions and universities. It could also serve as a model for a regional surveillance network. Preliminary susceptibility results showed widespread chloroquine resistance, which was consistent with previous reports for the Pacific region. However, high susceptibility to dihydroartemisinin and lumefantrine compounds, currently used for treatment in the country, was also reported. The implementation process identified critical points and opportunities for the improvement of network sustainability strategies.

Strategies for the successful implementation of viral laboratory automation.

It has been estimated that more than 70% of all medical activity is directly related to information providing analytical data. Substantial technological advances have taken place recently, which have allowed a previously unimagined number of analytical samples to be processed while offering high quality results. Concurrently, yet more new diagnostic determinations have been introduced - all of which has led to a significant increase in the prescription of analytical parameters. This increased workload has placed great pressure on the laboratory with respect to health costs. The present manager of the Clinical Laboratory (CL) has had to examine cost control as well as rationing - meaning that the CL's focus has not been strictly metrological, as if it were purely a system producing results, but instead has had to concentrate on its efficiency and efficacy. By applying re-engineering criteria, an emphasis has had to be placed on improved organisation and operating practice within the CL, focussing on the current criteria of the Integrated Management Areas where the technical and human resources are brought together. This re-engineering has been based on the concepts of consolidating and integrating the analytical platforms, while differentiating the production areas (CORE Laboratory) from the information areas. With these present concepts in mind, automation and virological treatment, along with serology in general, follow the same criteria as the rest of the operating methodology in the Clinical Laboratory.

A miR-34a-SIRT6 axis in the squamous cell differentiation network.

Squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) are highly heterogeneous tumours, resulting from deranged expression of genes involved in squamous cell differentiation. Here we report that microRNA-34a (miR-34a) functions as a novel node in the squamous cell differentiation network, with SIRT6 as a critical target. miR-34a expression increases with keratinocyte differentiation, while it is suppressed in skin and oral SCCs, SCC cell lines, and aberrantly differentiating primary human keratinocytes (HKCs). Expression of this miRNA is restored in SCC cells, in parallel with differentiation, by reversion of genomic DNA methylation or wild-type p53 expression. In normal HKCs, the pro-differentiation effects of increased p53 activity or UVB exposure are miR-34a-dependent, and increased miR-34a levels are sufficient to induce differentiation of these cells both in vitro and in vivo. SIRT6, a sirtuin family member not previously connected with miR-34a function, is a direct target of this miRNA in HKCs, and SIRT6 down-modulation is sufficient to reproduce the miR-34a pro-differentiation effects. The findings are of likely biological significance, as SIRT6 is oppositely expressed to miR-34a in normal keratinocytes and keratinocyte-derived tumours.

NetEye - Network Monitoring, Zabbix implementation

Con este proyecto se pretende implementar en un entorno real la herramienta Zabbix de monitoring de red. La idea es realizar un estudio de las necesidades, instalar la plataforma base, comprobar con ejemplos reales que la plataforma cumple con las necesidades corporativas y por último diseñar el plan de acción para el despliegue final a la organización.

TinyDomus

TinyDomus es un proyecto desarrollado para el TFC Sistemas Empotrados. Utiliza la plataforma TinyOS para gestionar una red inalámbrica de sensores (motas COU), que nos permitirán monitorizar ciertos aspectos físicos (picos magnéticos), y ambientales (temperatura y luminosidad). La funcionalidad de TinyDomus es la de simular un hogar domótico. Para ello dispone de una aplicación de escritorio con la que podemos visualizar la información de los sensores de las motas, controlar el funcionamiento del sistema y solicitar información a la red de sensores.