Patrones y procesos espaciales en poblaciones y comunidades vegetales: nuevas herramientas e hipótesis

Generalmente los patrones espaciales de puntos en ecología, se definen en el espacio bi-dimensional, donde cada punto representado por el par ordenado (x,y), resume la ubicación espacial de una planta. La importancia de los patrones espaciales de plantas radica en que proceden como respuesta ante importantes procesos ecológicos asociados a la estructura de una población o comunidad. Tales procesos incluyen fenómenos como la dispersión de semillas, la competencia por recursos, la facilitación, respuesta de las plantas ante algún tipo de estrés, entre otros. En esta tesis se evalúan los factores y potenciales procesos subyacentes, que explican los patrones de distribución espacial de la biodiversidad vegetal en diferentes ecosistemas como bosque mediterráneo, bosque tropical y matorral seco tropical; haciendo uso de nuevas metodologías para comprobar hipótesis relacionadas a los procesos espaciales. En este trabajo se utilizaron dos niveles ecológicos para analizar los procesos espaciales, el nivel de población y el nivel de comunidad, con el fin de evaluar la importancia relativa de las interacciones intraespecíficas e interespecíficas. Me centré en el uso de funciones estadísticas que resumen los patrones de puntos para explorar y hacer inferencias a partir de datos espaciales, empezando con la construcción de un nuevo modelo nulo para inferir variantes del síndrome de dispersión de una planta parásita en España central. Se analizó la dependencia de los patrones espaciales tanto de los hospedantes afectados como de los no-afectados y se observó fuerte dependencia a pequeña y mediana distancia. Se utilizaron dos funciones (kernel) para simular la dispersión de la especie parásita y se identificó consistencia de estos modelos con otros síndromes de dispersión adicionalmente a la autodispersión. Un segundo tema consistió en desarrollar un método ANOVA de dos vías? para patrones de puntos replicados donde el interés se concentró en evaluar la interacción de dos factores. Este método se aplicó a un caso de estudio que consitió en analizar la influencia de la topografía y la altitud sobre el patrón espacial de un arbusto dominante en matorral seco al sur del Ecuador, cuyos datos provienen de patrones de puntos replicados basados en diseño. Partiendo de una metodología desarrollada para procesos uni-factoriales, se construyó el método para procesos bi-factoriales y así poder evaluar el efecto de interacción. Se observó que la topografía por sí sola así como la interacción con la altitud presentaron efecto significativo sobre la formación del patrón espacial. Un tercer tema fue identificar la relación entre el patrón espacial y el síndrome de dispersión de la comunidad vegetal en el bosque tropical de la Isla de Barro Colorado (BCI), Panamá. Muchos estudios se han desarrollado en este bosque tropical y algunos han analizado la relación síndrome-patrón espacial, sin embargo lo novedoso de nuestro estudio es que se evaluaron un conjunto amplio de modelos (114 modelos) basados en procesos que incorporan la limitación de la dispersión y la heterogeneidad ambiental, y evalúan el efecto único y el efecto conjunto, para posteriormente seleccionar el modelo de mejor ajuste para cada especie. Más de la mitad de las especies presentaron patrón espacial consistente con el efecto conjutno de la limitación de la dispersión y heterogeneidad ambiental y el porcentaje restante de especies reveló en forma equitativa el efecto único de la heterogeneidad ambiental y efecto único de limitación de la dispersión. Finalmente, con la misma información del bosque tropical de BCI, y para entender las relaciones que subyacen para mantener el equilibrio de la biodiversidad, se desarrolló un índice de dispersión funcional local a nivel de individuo, que permita relacionar el patrón espacial con cuatro rasgos funcionales clave de las especies. Pese a que muchos estudios realizados involucran esta comunidad con la teoría neutral, se encontró que el ensamble de la comunidad de BCI está afectado por limitaciones de similaridad y de hábitat a diferentes escalas. ABSTRACT Overall the spatial point patterns in ecology are defined in two-dimensional space, where each point denoted by the (x,y) ordered pair, summarizes the spatial location of a plant. The spatial point patterns are essential because they arise in response to important ecological processes, associated with the structure of a population or community. Such processes include phenomena as seed dispersal, competition for resources, facilitation, and plant response to some type of stress, among others. In this thesis, some factors and potential underlying processes were evaluated in order to explain the spatial distribution patterns of plant biodiversity. It was done in different ecosystems such as Mediterranean forest, tropical forest and dry scrubland. For this purpose new methodologies were used to test hypothesis related to spatial processes. Two ecological levels were used to analyze the spatial processes, at population and community levels, in order to assess the relative importance of intraspecific and interspecific interactions. I focused on the use of spatial statistical functions to summarize point patterns to explore and make inferences from spatial data, starting with the construction of a new null model to infer variations about the dispersal syndrome of a parasitic plant in central Spain. Spatial dependence between point patterns in a multivariate point process of affected and unaffected hosts were analyzed and strong dependence was observed at small and medium distance. Two kernel functions were used to simulate the dispersion of parasitic plant and consistency of these models with other syndromes was identified, in addition to ballistic dispersion. A second issue was to analyze altitude and topography effects on the spatial population structure of a dominant shrub in the dry ecosystem in southern Ecuador, whose data come from replicated point patterns design-based. Based on a methodology developed for uni-factorial process, a method for bi-factorial processes was built to assess the interaction effect. The topography alone and interacting with altitude showed significant effect on the spatial pattern of shrub. A third issue was to identify the relationship between the spatial pattern and dispersal syndromes of plant community in the tropical forest of Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panamá. Several studies have been developed in this tropical forest and some focused on the spatial pattern-syndrome relationship; however the novelty of our study is that a large set of models (114 models) including dispersal limitation and environmental heterogeneity were evaluated, used to identify the only and joint effect to subsequently select the best fit model for each species. Slightly more than fifty percent of the species showed spatial pattern consistent with only the dispersal limitation, and the remaining percentage of species revealed the only effect of environmental heterogeneity and habitat-dispersal limitation joined effect, equitably. Finally, with the same information from the tropical forest of BCI, and to understand the relationships underlying for balance of biodiversity, an index of the local functional dispersion was developed at the individual level, to relate the spatial pattern with four key functional traits of species. Although many studies involve this community with neutral theory, the assembly of the community is affected by similarity and habitat limitations at different scales.

Diversidad funcional y diversidad filogenética en los bosques secos del sur del Ecuador

El concepto tradicional de reglas de ensamblaje refleja la idea de que las especies no co-ocurren al azar sino que están restringidos en su co-ocurrencia por la competencia interespecífica o por un filtrado ambiental. En está tesis abordé la importancia de los procesos que determinan el ensamble de la comunidad en la estructuración de los Bosques Secos en el Sur del Ecuador. Este estudio se realizó en la región biogeográfica Tumbesina, donde se encuentra la mayor concentración de bosques secos tropicales bien conservados del sur de Ecuador, y que constituyen una de las áreas de endemismo más importantes del mundo. El clima se caracteriza por una estación seca que va desde mayo a diciembre y una estación lluviosa de enero a abril, su temperatura anual varía entre 20°C y 26°C y una precipitación promedio anual entre 300 y 700 mm. Mi primer tema fue orientado a evaluar si la distribución de los rasgos funcionales a nivel comunitario es compatible con la existencia de un filtro ambiental (filtrado del hábitat) o con la existencia de un proceso de limitación de la semejanza funcional impuesta por la competencia inter-específica entre 58 especies de plantas leñosas repartidas en 109 parcelas (10x50m). Para ello, se analizó la distribución de los valores de cinco rasgos funcionales (altura máxima, densidad de la madera, área foliar específica, tamaño de la hoja y de masa de la semilla), resumida mediante varios estadísticos (rango, varianza, kurtosis y la desviación estándar de la distribución de distancias funcionales a la especies más próxima) y se comparó con la distribución esperada bajo un modelo nulo con ausencia de competencia. Los resultados obtenidos apoyan que tanto el filtrado ambiental como la limitación a la semejanza afectan el ensamble de las comunidades vegetales de los bosques secos Tumbesinos. Un segundo tema fue identificar si la diversidad funcional está condicionada por los gradientes ambientales, y en concreto si disminuye en los ambientes más estresantes a causa del filtrado ambiental, y si por el contrario aumenta en los ambientes más benignos donde la competencia se vuelve más importante, teniendo en cuenta las posibles modificaciones a este patrón general a causa de las interacciones de facilitación. Para abordar este estudio analizamos tanto las variaciones en la diversidad funcional (respecto a los de los cinco rasgos funcionales empleados en el primer capítulo de la tesis) como las variaciones de diversidad filogenética a lo largo de un gradiente de estrés climático en los bosques tumbesinos, y se contrastaron frente a las diversidades esperadas bajo un modelo de ensamblaje completamente aleatorio de la comunidad. Los análisis mostraron que tan sólo la diversidad de tamaños foliares siguió el patrón de variación esperado, disminuyendo a medida que aumentó el estrés abiótico mientras que ni el resto de rasgos funcionales ni la diversidad funcional multivariada ni la diversidad filogenética mostraron una variación significativa a lo largo del gradiente ambiental. Un tercer tema fue evaluar si los procesos que organizan la estructura funcional de la comunidad operan a diferentes escalas espaciales. Para ello cartografié todos los árboles y arbustos de más de 5 cm de diámetro en una parcela de 9 Ha de bosque seco y caractericé funcionalmente todas las especies. Dicha parcela fue dividida en subparcelas de diferente tamaño, obteniéndose subparcelas a seis escalas espaciales distintas. Los resultados muestran agregación de estrategias funcionales semejantes a escalas pequeñas, lo que sugiere la existencia bien de filtros ambientales actuando a escala fina o bien de procesos competitivos que igualan la estrategia óptima a dichas escalas. Finalmente con la misma información de la parcela permanente de 9 Ha. Nos propusimos evaluar el efecto y comportamiento de las especies respecto a la organización de la diversidad taxonómica, funcional y filogenética. Para ello utilicé tres funciones sumario espaciales: ISAR- para el nivel taxonómico, IFDAR para el nivel funcional y IPSVAR para el nivel filogenética y las contrastamos frente a modelos nulos que describen la distribución espacial de las especies individuales. Los resultados mostraron que en todas las escalas espaciales consideradas para ISAR, IFDAR y IPSVAR, la mayoría de las especies se comportaron como neutras, es decir, que están rodeados por la riqueza de diversidad semejante a la esperada. Sin embargo, algunas especies aparecieron como acumuladoras de diversidad funcional y filogenética, lo que sugiere su implicación en procesos competitivos de limitación de la semejanza. Una pequeña proporción de las especies apareció como repelente de la diversidad funcional y filogenética, lo que sugiere su implicación en un proceso de filtrado de hábitat. En este estudio pone de relieve cómo el análisis de las dimensiones alternativas de la biodiversidad, como la diversidad funcional y filogenética, puede ayudarnos a entender la co-ocurrencia de especies en diversos ensambles de comunidad. Todos los resultados de este estudio aportan nuevas evidencias de los procesos de ensamblaje de la comunidad de los Bosques Estacionalmente secos y como las variables ambientales y la competencia juegan un papel importante en la estructuración de la comunidad. ABSTRACT The traditional concept of the rules assembly for species communities reflects the idea that species do not co-occur at random but are restricted in their co-occurrence by interspecific competition or an environmental filter. In this thesis, I addressed the importance of the se processes in the assembly of plant communities in the dry forests of southern Ecuador. This study was conducted in the biogeographic region of Tumbesina has the largest concentration of well-conserved tropical dry forests of southern Ecuador, and is recognized as one of the most important areas of endemism in the world. The climate is characterized by a dry season from May to December and a rainy season from January to April. The annual temperature varies between 20 ° C and 26 ° C and an average annual rainfall between 300 and 700 mm. I first assessed whether the distribution of functional traits at the level of the community is compatible with the existence of an environmental filter (imposed by habitat) or the existence of a limitation on functional similarity imposed by interspecific competition. This analysis was conducted for 58 species of woody plants spread over 109 plots of 10 x 50 m. Specifically, I compared the distribution of values of five functional traits (maximum height, wood density, specific leaf area, leaf size and mass of the seed), via selected statistical properties (range, variance, kurtosis and analyzed the standard deviation of the distribution of the closest functional species) distances and compared with a expected distribution under a null model of no competition. The results support that both environmental filtering and a limitation on trait similarity affect the assembly of plant communities in dry forests Tumbesina. My second chapter evaluated whether variation in functional diversity is conditioned by environmental gradients. In particular, I tested whether it decreases in the most stressful environments because of environmental filters, or if, on the contrary, functional diversity is greater in more benign environments where competition becomes more important (notwithstanding possible changes to this general pattern due to facilitation). To address this theme I analyzed changes in both the functional diversity (maximum height, wood density, specific leaf area, leaf size and mass of the seed) and the phylogenetic diversity, along a gradient of climatic stress in Tumbes forests. The observed patterns of variation were contrasted against the diversity expected under a completely random null model of community assembly. Only the diversity of leaf sizes followed the hypothesis decreasing in as trait variation abiotic stress increased, while the other functional traits multivariate functional diversity and phylogenetic diversity no showed significant variation along the environmental gradient. The third theme assess whether the processes that organize the functional structure of the community operate at different spatial scales. To do this I mapped all the trees and shrubs of more than 5 cm in diameter within a plot of 9 hectares of dry forest and functionally classified each species. The plot was divided into subplots of different sizes, obtaining subplots of six different spatial scales. I found aggregation of similar functional strategies at small scales, which may indicate the existence of environmental filters or competitive processes that correspond to the optimal strategy for these fine scales. Finally, with the same information from the permanent plot of 9 ha, I evaluated the effect and behavior of individual species on the organization of the taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity. The analysis comprised three spatial summary functions: ISAR- for taxonomic level analysis, IFDAR for functional level analysis, and IPSVAR for phylogenetic level analysis, in each case the pattern of diversity was contrasted against null models that randomly reallocate describe the spatial distribution of individual species and their traits. For all spatial scales considering ISAR, IFDAR and IPSVAR, most species behaved as neutral, i.e. they are surrounded by the diversity of other traits similar to that expected under a null model. However, some species appeared as accumulator of functional and phylogenetic diversity, suggesting that they may play a role in competitive processes that limiting similarity. A small proportion of the species appeared as repellent of functional and phylogenetic diversity, suggesting their involvement in a process of habitat filtering. These analysis highlights that the analysis of alternative dimensions of biodiversity, such as functional and phylogenetic diversity, can help us understand the co-occurrence of species in the assembly of biotic communities. All results of this study provide further evidence of the processes of assembly of the community of the seasonally dry forests as environmental variables and competition play an important role in structuring the community.

Transfer of human serum IgG to nonobese diabetic Igμnull mice reveals a role for autoantibodies in the loss of secretory function of exocrine tissues in Sjögren’s syndrome

The NOD (nonobese diabetic) mouse has been studied as an animal model for autoimmune insulin-dependent diabetes and Sjögren’s syndrome. NOD.Igμnull mice, which lack functional B lymphocytes, develop progressive histopathologic lesions of the submandibular and lachrymal glands similar to NOD mice, but in the absence of autoimmune insulitis and diabetes. Despite the focal appearance of T cells in salivary and lachrymal tissues, NOD.Igμnull mice fail to lose secretory function as determined by stimulation of the muscarinic/cholinergic receptor by the agonist pilocarpine, suggesting a role for B cell autoantibodies in mediating exocrine dryness. Infusion of purified serum IgG or F(ab′)2 fragments from parental NOD mice or human primary Sjögren’s syndrome patients, but not serum IgG from healthy controls, alters stimulated saliva production, an observation consistent with antibody binding to neural receptors. Furthermore, human patient IgG fractions competitively inhibited the binding of the muscarinic receptor agonist, [3H]quinuclidinyl benzilate, to salivary gland membranes. This autoantibody activity is lost after preadsorption with intact salivary cells. These findings indicate that autoantibodies play an important part in the functional impairment of secretory processes seen in connection with the autoimmune exocrinopathy of Sjögren’s syndrome.

A model-based approach for assessing in vivo combination therapy interactions

We present an approach for evaluating the efficacy of combination antitumor agent schedules that accounts for order and timing of drug administration. Our model-based approach compares in vivo tumor volume data over a time course and offers a quantitative definition for additivity of drug effects, relative to which synergism and antagonism are interpreted. We begin by fitting data from individual mice receiving at most one drug to a differential equation tumor growth/drug effect model and combine individual parameter estimates to obtain population statistics. Using two null hypotheses: (i) combination therapy is consistent with additivity or (ii) combination therapy is equivalent to treating with the more effective single agent alone, we compute predicted tumor growth trajectories and their distribution for combination treated animals. We illustrate this approach by comparing entire observed and expected tumor volume trajectories for a data set in which HER-2/neu-overexpressing MCF-7 human breast cancer xenografts are treated with a humanized, anti-HER-2 monoclonal antibody (rhuMAb HER-2), doxorubicin, or one of five proposed combination therapy schedules.

Circadian rhythms in Neurospora crassa: Lipid deficiencies restore robust rhythmicity to null frequency and white-collar mutants

The conidiation rhythm in the fungus Neurospora crassa is a model system for investigating the genetics of circadian clocks. Null mutants at the frq (frequency) locus (frq9 and frq10) make no functional frq gene products and are arrhythmic under standard conditions. The white-collar strains (wc-1 and wc-2) are insensitive to most effects of light, and are also arrhythmic. All three genes are proposed to be central components of the circadian oscillator. We have been investigating two mutants, cel (chain-elongation) and chol-1 (choline-requirer), which are defective in lipid synthesis and affect the period and temperature compensation of the rhythm. We have constructed the double mutant strains chol-1 frq9, chol-1 frq10, chol-1 wc-1, chol-1 wc-2, cel frq9, cel frq10, and cel wc-2. We find that these double mutant strains are robustly rhythmic when assayed under lipid-deficient conditions, indicating that free-running rhythmicity does not require the frq, wc-1, or wc-2 gene products. The rhythms in the double mutant strains are similar to the cel and chol-1 parents, except that they are less sensitive to light. This suggests that the frq, wc-1, and wc-2 gene products may be components of a pathway that normally supplies input to a core oscillator to transduce light signals and sustain rhythmicity. This pathway can be bypassed when lipid metabolism is altered.

A genetic model provides evidence that the receptor for atrial natriuretic peptide (guanylyl cyclase-A) inhibits cardiac ventricular myocyte hypertrophy

Guanylyl cyclase-A (NPR-A; GC-A) is the major and possibly the only receptor for atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) or B-type natriuretic peptide. Although mice deficient in GC-A display an elevated blood pressure, the resultant cardiac hypertrophy is much greater than in other mouse models of hypertension. Here we overproduce GC-A in the cardiac myocytes of wild-type or GC-A null animals. Introduction of the GC-A transgene did not alter blood pressure or heart rate as a function of genotype. Cardiac myocyte size was larger (approximately 20%) in GC-A null than in wild-type animals. However, introduction of the GC-A transgene reduced cardiac myocyte size in both wild-type and null mice. Coincident with the reduction in myocyte size, both ANP mRNA and ANP content were significantly reduced by overexpression of GC-A, and this reduction was independent of genotype. This genetic model, therefore, separates a regulation of cardiac myocyte size by blood pressure from local regulation by a GC-mediated pathway.

Localization of atherosclerosis susceptibility loci to chromosomes 4 and 6 using the Ldlr knockout mouse model

Atherosclerosis is a complex disease resulting from the interaction of multiple genes. We have used the Ldlr knockout mouse model in an interspecific genetic cross to map atherosclerosis susceptibility loci. A total of 174 (MOLF/Ei × B6.129S7-Ldlrtm1Her) × C57BL/6J-Ldlrtm1Her backcross mice, homozygous for the Ldlr null allele, were fed a Western-type diet for 3 months and then killed for quantification of aortic lesions. A genome scan was carried out by using DNA pools and microsatellite markers spaced at ≈18-centimorgan intervals. Quantitative trait locus analysis of individual backcross mice confirmed linkages to chromosomes 4 (Athsq1, logarithm of odds = 6.2) and 6 (Athsq2, logarithm of odds = 6.7). Athsq1 affected lesions in females only whereas Athsq2 affected both sexes. Among females, the loci accounted for ≈50% of the total variance of lesion area. The susceptible allele at Athsq1 was derived from the MOLF/Ei genome whereas the susceptible allele at Athsq2 was derived from C57BL/6J. Inheritance of susceptible alleles at both loci conferred a 2-fold difference in lesion area, suggesting an additive effect of Athsq1 and Athsq2. No associations were observed between the quantitative trait loci and levels of plasma total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol, insulin, or body weight. We provide strong evidence for complex inheritance of atherosclerosis in mice with elevated plasma low density lipoprotein cholesterol and show a major influence of nonlipoprotein-related factors on disease susceptibility. Athsq1 and Athsq2 represent candidate susceptibility loci for human atherosclerosis, most likely residing on chromosomes 1p36–32 and 12p13–12, respectively.

Age-related functional and structural retinal modifications in the Igf1−/− null mouse

Background. Mutations in the gene encoding human insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) cause syndromic neurosensorial deafness. To understand the precise role of IGF-I in retinal physiology, we have studied the morphology and electrophysiology of the retina of the Igf1−/− mice in comparison with that of the Igf1+/− and Igf1+/+ animals during aging. Methods. Serological concentrations of IGF-I, glycemia and body weight were determined in Igf1+/+, Igf1+/− and Igf1−/− mice at different times up to 360 days of age. We have analyzed hearing by recording the auditory brainstem responses (ABR), the retinal function by electroretinographic (ERG) responses and the retinal morphology by immunohistochemical labeling on retinal preparations at different ages. Results. IGF-I levels are gradually reduced with aging in the mouse. Deaf Igf1−/− mice had an almost flat scotopic ERG response and a photopic ERG response of very small amplitude at postnatal age 360 days (P360). At the same age, Igf1+/− mice still showed both scotopic and photopic ERG responses, but a significant decrease in the ERG wave amplitudes was observed when compared with those of Igf1+/+ mice. Immunohistochemical analysis showed that P360 Igf1−/− mice suffered important structural modifications in the first synapse of the retinal pathway, that affected mainly the postsynaptic processes from horizontal and bipolar cells. A decrease in bassoon and synaptophysin staining in both rod and cone synaptic terminals suggested a reduced photoreceptor output to the inner retina. Retinal morphology of the P360 Igf1+/− mice showed only small alterations in the horizontal and bipolar cell processes, when compared with Igf1+/+ mice of matched age. Conclusions. In the mouse, IGF-I deficit causes an age-related visual loss, besides a congenital deafness. The present results support the use of the Igf1−/− mouse as a new model for the study of human syndromic deaf-blindness.

Proinsulin slows retinal degeneration and vision loss in the P23H rat model of retinitis pigmentosa

Proinsulin has been characterized as a neuroprotective molecule. In this work we assess the therapeutic potential of proinsulin on photoreceptor degeneration, synaptic connectivity, and functional activity of the retina in the transgenic P23H rat, an animal model of autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa (RP). P23H homozygous rats received an intramuscular injection of an adeno-associated viral vector serotype 1 (AAV1) expressing human proinsulin (hPi+) or AAV1-null vector (hPi−) at P20. Levels of hPi in serum were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and visual function was evaluated by electroretinographic (ERG) recording at P30, P60, P90, and P120. Preservation of retinal structure was assessed by immunohistochemistry at P120. Human proinsulin was detected in serum from rats injected with hPi+ at all times tested, with average hPi levels ranging from 1.1 nM (P30) to 1.4 nM (P120). ERG recordings showed an amelioration of vision loss in hPi+ animals. The scotopic b-waves were significantly higher in hPi+ animals than in control rats at P90 and P120. This attenuation of visual deterioration correlated with a delay in photoreceptor degeneration and the preservation of retinal cytoarchitecture. hPi+ animals had 48.7% more photoreceptors than control animals. Presynaptic and postsynaptic elements, as well as the synaptic contacts between photoreceptors and bipolar or horizontal cells, were preserved in hPi+ P23H rats. Furthermore, in hPi+ rat retinas the number of rod bipolar cell bodies was greater than in control rats. Our data demonstrate that hPi expression preserves cone and rod structure and function, together with their contacts with postsynaptic neurons, in the P23H rat. These data strongly support the further development of proinsulin-based therapy to counteract retinitis pigmentosa.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

Poster presented in the 24th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE 24), Budapest, Hungary, June 15-18, 2014.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

In this work, we analyze the effect of incorporating life cycle inventory (LCI) uncertainty on the multi-objective optimization of chemical supply chains (SC) considering simultaneously their economic and environmental performance. To this end, we present a stochastic multi-scenario mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) coupled with a two-step transformation scenario generation algorithm with the unique feature of providing scenarios where the LCI random variables are correlated and each one of them has the desired lognormal marginal distribution. The environmental performance is quantified following life cycle assessment (LCA) principles, which are represented in the model formulation through standard algebraic equations. The capabilities of our approach are illustrated through a case study of a petrochemical supply chain. We show that the stochastic solution improves the economic performance of the SC in comparison with the deterministic one at any level of the environmental impact, and moreover the correlation among environmental burdens provides more realistic scenarios for the decision making process.

Sur les tests lisses d'ajustement dans le context des series chronologiques

La plupart des modèles en statistique classique repose sur une hypothèse sur la distribution des données ou sur une distribution sous-jacente aux données. La validité de cette hypothèse permet de faire de l’inférence, de construire des intervalles de confiance ou encore de tester la fiabilité du modèle. La problématique des tests d’ajustement vise à s’assurer de la conformité ou de la cohérence de l’hypothèse avec les données disponibles. Dans la présente thèse, nous proposons des tests d’ajustement à la loi normale dans le cadre des séries chronologiques univariées et vectorielles. Nous nous sommes limités à une classe de séries chronologiques linéaires, à savoir les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile (ARMA ou VARMA dans le cas vectoriel). Dans un premier temps, au cas univarié, nous proposons une généralisation du travail de Ducharme et Lafaye de Micheaux (2004) dans le cas où la moyenne est inconnue et estimée. Nous avons estimé les paramètres par une méthode rarement utilisée dans la littérature et pourtant asymptotiquement efficace. En effet, nous avons rigoureusement montré que l’estimateur proposé par Brockwell et Davis (1991, section 10.8) converge presque sûrement vers la vraie valeur inconnue du paramètre. De plus, nous fournissons une preuve rigoureuse de l’inversibilité de la matrice des variances et des covariances de la statistique de test à partir de certaines propriétés d’algèbre linéaire. Le résultat s’applique aussi au cas où la moyenne est supposée connue et égale à zéro. Enfin, nous proposons une méthode de sélection de la dimension de la famille d’alternatives de type AIC, et nous étudions les propriétés asymptotiques de cette méthode. L’outil proposé ici est basé sur une famille spécifique de polynômes orthogonaux, à savoir les polynômes de Legendre. Dans un second temps, dans le cas vectoriel, nous proposons un test d’ajustement pour les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile avec une paramétrisation structurée. La paramétrisation structurée permet de réduire le nombre élevé de paramètres dans ces modèles ou encore de tenir compte de certaines contraintes particulières. Ce projet inclut le cas standard d’absence de paramétrisation. Le test que nous proposons s’applique à une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales. Nous illustrons cela dans le cas particulier des polynômes de Legendre et d’Hermite. Dans le cas particulier des polynômes d’Hermite, nous montrons que le test obtenu est invariant aux transformations affines et qu’il est en fait une généralisation de nombreux tests existants dans la littérature. Ce projet peut être vu comme une généralisation du premier dans trois directions, notamment le passage de l’univarié au multivarié ; le choix d’une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales ; et enfin la possibilité de spécifier des relations ou des contraintes dans la formulation VARMA. Nous avons procédé dans chacun des projets à une étude de simulation afin d’évaluer le niveau et la puissance des tests proposés ainsi que de les comparer aux tests existants. De plus des applications aux données réelles sont fournies. Nous avons appliqué les tests à la prévision de la température moyenne annuelle du globe terrestre (univarié), ainsi qu’aux données relatives au marché du travail canadien (bivarié). Ces travaux ont été exposés à plusieurs congrès (voir par exemple Tagne, Duchesne et Lafaye de Micheaux (2013a, 2013b, 2014) pour plus de détails). Un article basé sur le premier projet est également soumis dans une revue avec comité de lecture (Voir Duchesne, Lafaye de Micheaux et Tagne (2016)).

Coreferentiality: A New Method for the Hypothesis-Based Analysis of Phenotypes Characterized by Multivariate Data

Many multifactorial biologic effects, particularly in the context of complex human diseases, are still poorly understood. At the same time, the systematic acquisition of multivariate data has become increasingly easy. The use of such data to analyze and model complex phenotypes, however, remains a challenge. Here, a new analytic approach is described, termed coreferentiality, together with an appropriate statistical test. Coreferentiality is the indirect relation of two variables of functional interest in respect to whether they parallel each other in their respective relatedness to multivariate reference data, which can be informative for a complex effect or phenotype. It is shown that the power of coreferentiality testing is comparable to multiple regression analysis, sufficient even when reference data are informative only to a relatively small extent of 2.5%, and clearly exceeding the power of simple bivariate correlation testing. Thus, coreferentiality testing uses the increased power of multivariate analysis, however, in order to address a more straightforward interpretable bivariate relatedness. Systematic application of this approach could substantially improve the analysis and modeling of complex phenotypes, particularly in the context of human study where addressing functional hypotheses by direct experimentation is often difficult.

Complex genetic findings in a female patient with pyruvate dehydrogenase complex deficiency: Null mutations in the PDHX gene associated with unusual expression of the testis-specific PDHA2 gene in her somatic cells

Human pyruvate dehydrogenase complex (PDC) catalyzes a key step in the generation of cellular energy and is composed by three catalytic elements (E1, E2, E3), one structural subunit (E3-binding protein), and specific regulatory elements, phosphatases and kinases (PDKs, PDPs). The E1α subunit exists as two isoforms encoded by different genes: PDHA1 located on Xp22.1 and expressed in somatic tissues, and the intronless PDHA2 located on chromosome 4 and only detected in human spermatocytes and spermatids. We report on a young adult female patient who has PDC deficiency associated with a compound heterozygosity in PDHX encoding the E3-binding protein. Additionally, in the patient and in all members of her immediate family, a full-length testis-specific PDHA2 mRNA and a 5′UTR-truncated PDHA1 mRNA were detected in circulating lymphocytes and cultured fibroblasts, being bothmRNAs translated into full-length PDHA2 and PDHA1 proteins, resulting in the co-existence of both PDHA isoforms in somatic cells.Moreover, we observed that DNA hypomethylation of a CpG island in the coding region of PDHA2 gene is associatedwith the somatic activation of this gene transcription in these individuals. This study represents the first natural model of the de-repression of the testis-specific PDHA2 gene in human somatic cells, and raises some questions related to the somatic activation of this gene as a potential therapeutic approach for most forms of PDC deficiency.

Dynamic D-Vine copula model with applications to Value-at-Risk (VaR)

Regular vine copulas are multivariate dependence models constructed from pair-copulas (bivariate copulas). In this paper, we allow the dependence parameters of the pair-copulas in a D-vine decomposition to be potentially time-varying, following a nonlinear restricted ARMA(1,m) process, in order to obtain a very flexible dependence model for applications to multivariate financial return data. We investigate the dependence among the broad stock market indexes from Germany (DAX), France (CAC 40), Britain (FTSE 100), the United States (S&P 500) and Brazil (IBOVESPA) both in a crisis and in a non-crisis period. We find evidence of stronger dependence among the indexes in bear markets. Surprisingly, though, the dynamic D-vine copula indicates the occurrence of a sharp decrease in dependence between the indexes FTSE and CAC in the beginning of 2011, and also between CAC and DAX during mid-2011 and in the beginning of 2008, suggesting the absence of contagion in these cases. We also evaluate the dynamic D-vine copula with respect to Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting accuracy in crisis periods. The dynamic D-vine outperforms the static D-vine in terms of predictive accuracy for our real data sets.