Introduction to Multi-Agent Simulation

When designing systems that are complex, dynamic and stochastic in nature, simulation is generally recognised as one of the best design support technologies, and a valuable aid in the strategic and tactical decision making process. A simulation model consists of a set of rules that define how a system changes over time, given its current state. Unlike analytical models, a simulation model is not solved but is run and the changes of system states can be observed at any point in time. This provides an insight into system dynamics rather than just predicting the output of a system based on specific inputs. Simulation is not a decision making tool but a decision support tool, allowing better informed decisions to be made. Due to the complexity of the real world, a simulation model can only be an approximation of the target system. The essence of the art of simulation modelling is abstraction and simplification. Only those characteristics that are important for the study and analysis of the target system should be included in the simulation model. The purpose of simulation is either to better understand the operation of a target system, or to make predictions about a target system’s performance. It can be viewed as an artificial white-room which allows one to gain insight but also to test new theories and practices without disrupting the daily routine of the focal organisation. What you can expect to gain from a simulation study is very well summarised by FIRMA (2000). His idea is that if the theory that has been framed about the target system holds, and if this theory has been adequately translated into a computer model this would allow you to answer some of the following questions: · Which kind of behaviour can be expected under arbitrarily given parameter combinations and initial conditions? · Which kind of behaviour will a given target system display in the future? · Which state will the target system reach in the future? The required accuracy of the simulation model very much depends on the type of question one is trying to answer. In order to be able to respond to the first question the simulation model needs to be an explanatory model. This requires less data accuracy. In comparison, the simulation model required to answer the latter two questions has to be predictive in nature and therefore needs highly accurate input data to achieve credible outputs. These predictions involve showing trends, rather than giving precise and absolute predictions of the target system performance. The numerical results of a simulation experiment on their own are most often not very useful and need to be rigorously analysed with statistical methods. These results then need to be considered in the context of the real system and interpreted in a qualitative way to make meaningful recommendations or compile best practice guidelines. One needs a good working knowledge about the behaviour of the real system to be able to fully exploit the understanding gained from simulation experiments. The goal of this chapter is to brace the newcomer to the topic of what we think is a valuable asset to the toolset of analysts and decision makers. We will give you a summary of information we have gathered from the literature and of the experiences that we have made first hand during the last five years, whilst obtaining a better understanding of this exciting technology. We hope that this will help you to avoid some pitfalls that we have unwittingly encountered. Section 2 is an introduction to the different types of simulation used in Operational Research and Management Science with a clear focus on agent-based simulation. In Section 3 we outline the theoretical background of multi-agent systems and their elements to prepare you for Section 4 where we discuss how to develop a multi-agent simulation model. Section 5 outlines a simple example of a multi-agent system. Section 6 provides a collection of resources for further studies and finally in Section 7 we will conclude the chapter with a short summary.

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Multi-drug resistant Staphylococcus aureus isolated from emergency ward of an Iranian hospital

Purpose: To study the prevalence of resistant strains of Staphylococcus aureus isolated from surfaces, beds and various equipment of an Iranian hospital emergency ward. Methods: Two hundred swab samples were collected from the surfaces, beds, trolleys, surgical equipment and diagnostic medical devices in emergency ward. Samples were cultured and those that were S. aureus-positive were confirmed using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Antimicrobial resistance pattern was analyzed using disk diffusion method. Results: Nine of 200 samples (4.5 %) collected were positive for S. aureus. Surfaces (8.8 %), beds (5 %) and trolleys (5 %) were the most commonly contaminated. S. aureus isolates exhibited varying levels of resistance against antibiotics with the following being the highest: tetracycline (88.8 %), penicillin (88.8 %) and ampicillin (77.7 %). The prevalence of resistance against methicillin, oxacillin and azithromycin were 44.4, 33.3 and 33.3 %, respectively. There was no pattern of resistance against imipenem. Conclusion: Efficient disinfection of surfaces, beds, trolleys and surgical instruments should be performed periodically to reduce colonization of resistant strains of S. aureus in various areas of emergency health care centers.

Cognitive Competence and Life Course Change in Multi-Problem Adolescents

The dissertation reports on two studies. The purpose of Study I was to develop and evaluate a measure of cognitive competence (the Critical Problem Solving Skills Scale – Qualitative Extension) using Relational Data Analysis (RDA) with a multi-ethnic, adolescent sample. My study builds on previous work that has been conducted to provide evidence for the reliability and validity of the RDA framework in evaluating youth development programs (Kurtines et al., 2008). Inter-coder percent agreement among the TOC and TCC coders for each of the category levels was moderate to high, with a range of .76 to .94. The Fleiss’ kappa across all category levels was from substantial agreement to almost perfect agreement, with a range of .72 to .91. The correlation between the TOC and the TCC demonstrated medium to high correlation, with a range of r(40)=.68, p Study II reports an investigation of a positive youth development program using an Outcome Mediation Cascade (OMC) evaluation model, an integrated model for evaluating the empirical intersection between intervention and developmental processes. The Changing Lives Program (CLP) is a community supported positive youth development intervention implemented in a practice setting as a selective/indicated program for multi-ethnic, multi-problem at risk youth in urban alternative high schools in the Miami Dade County Public Schools (M-DCPS). The 259 participants for this study were drawn from the CLP’s archival data file. The study used a structural equation modeling approach to construct and evaluate the hypothesized model. Findings indicated that the hypothesized model fit the data (χ2 (7) = 5.651, p = .83; RMSEA = .00; CFI = 1.00; WRMR = .319). My study built on previous research using the OMC evaluation model (Eichas, 2010), and the findings are consistent with the hypothesis that in addition to having effects on targeted positive outcomes, PYD interventions are likely to have progressive cascading effects on untargeted problem outcomes that operate through effects on positive outcomes.

The Effect of a Multi-Component Consultation Intervention on the Pragmatic Language Skills of Students with Symptoms of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

The purpose of this research was to determine if a multi-component consultation intervention was effective in improving pragmatic performance in students with ADHD. Participants for this study consisted of 7 children for whom 3 data points were obtained by a parent or 2 data points by a teacher. Changes in pragmatic performance were measured by comparing reports provided by parents or teachers pre- and post- intervention. Descriptive analysis procedures were completed to summarize changes in pragmatic behavior. Results revealed the mean overall change in pragmatic behavior for children in the MCC condition (Χ=1.133) was greater than the change seen in the CAU condition (.334) after 2 months of intervention as per parent reported data. Data indicated improvement in each behavior but incongruence between teachers and parents was found. Results support the hypothesis that the multi-component consultation intervention is effective in improving the pragmatic language performance of children with ADHD.

A multi-model approach to evaluate the role of environmental variability and fishing pressure in sardine fisheries

Understanding the fluctuations in population abundance is a central question in fisheries. Sardine fisheries is of great importance to Portugal and is data-rich and of primary concern to fisheries managers. In Portugal, sub-stocks of Sardina pilchardus (sardine) are found in different regions: the Northwest (IXaCN), Southwest (IXaCS) and the South coast (IXaS-Algarve). Each of these sardine sub-stocks is affected differently by a unique set of climate and ocean conditions, mainly during larval development and recruitment, which will consequently affect sardine fisheries in the short term. Taking this hypothesis into consideration we examined the effects of hydrographic (river discharge), sea surface temperature, wind driven phenomena, upwelling, climatic (North Atlantic Oscillation) and fisheries variables (fishing effort) on S. pilchardus catch rates (landings per unit effort, LPUE, as a proxy for sardine biomass). A 20-year time series (1989-2009) was used, for the different subdivisions of the Portuguese coast (sardine sub-stocks). For the purpose of this analysis a multi-model approach was used, applying different time series models for data fitting (Dynamic Factor Analysis, Generalised Least Squares), forecasting (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), as well as Surplus Production stock assessment models. The different models were evaluated, compared and the most important variables explaining changes in LPUE were identified. The type of relationship between catch rates of sardine and environmental variables varied across regional scales due to region-specific recruitment responses. Seasonality plays an important role in sardine variability within the three study regions. In IXaCN autumn (season with minimum spawning activity, larvae and egg concentrations) SST, northerly wind and wind magnitude were negatively related with LPUE. In IXaCS none of the explanatory variables tested was clearly related with LPUE. In IXaS-Algarve (South Portugal) both spring (period when large abundances of larvae are found) northerly wind and wind magnitude were negatively related with LPUE, revealing that environmental effects match with the regional peak in spawning time. Overall, results suggest that management of small, short-lived pelagic species, such as sardine quotas/sustainable yields, should be adapted to a regional scale because of regional environmental variability.

Aragonite-based scaffold for the treatment of knee osteochondral defects: results of a prospective multi-center trial at 2 years' follow-up

PURPOSE: To evaluate the clinical and MRI outcomes after the implantation of a nanostructured cell free aragonite-based scaffold in patients affected by knee chondral and osteochondral lesions. METHODS: 126 patients (94 men, 32 women; age 32.7±8.8 years) were included according to the following criteria: grade III or IV chondra/osteochondral lesions in the femoral condyles or throclea; 2) no limb axial deviation (i.e. varus or valgus knee > 5°); 3) no signs of knee instability; 4) no concurrent tibial or patellar chondral/osteochondral defects. All patients were treated by arthrotomic implantation of an aragonite based-scaffold by a press-fit technique. Patients were prospectively evaluated by IKDC, Tegner, Lysholm and KOOS scores preoperatively and then at 6, 12, 18 and 24-months follow-up. MRI was also performed to evaluate the amount of defect filling by regenerated cartilage. Failures were defined as the need for re-intervention in the index knee within the follow-up period. RESULTS: Average defect size was 2±1.3 cm2 and in most cases a single scaffold was used. A significant improvement in each clinical score was recorded from basal level to 24 months’ follow-up. In particular, the IKDC subjective score increased from 42.14±16 to 70.94±24.69 and the Tegner score improved from 2.95±1.90 to 4.82±1.85 (p<0.0005). Lysholm score and all the subscales of KOOS showed a similar trend over time. Age of the patient at implantation, size of the defect and BMI were correlated with lower clinical outcome. The presence of OA didn’t influence the clinical results. MRI evaluation showed a significant increase in defect filling over time, with the highest value reached at 24 months. Failures occurred in eleven patients (8.7%). CONCLUSION: The aragonite-based biomimetic osteochondral scaffold proved to be safe, and encouraging clinical and radiographic outcomes were documented up to 2 years’ follow-up.

Development of novel multi-substituted apatite nanophases with advanced functionalities for bone regeneration

In the field of bone substitutes is highly researched an innovative material able to fill gaps with high mechanical performances and able to stimulate cell response, permitting the complete restoration of the bone portion. In this respect, the synthesis of new bioactive materials able to mimic the compositional, morphological and mechanical features of bone is considered as the elective approach for effective tissue regeneration. Hydroxyapatite (HA) is the main component of the inorganic part of bone. Additionally ionic substitution can be performed in the apatite lattice producing different effects, depending from the selected ions. Magnesium, in substitution of calcium, and carbonate, in substitution of phosphate, extensively present in the biological bones, are able to improve properties naturally present in the apatitic phase, (i.e. biomimicry, solubility e osteoinductive properties). Other ions can be used to give new useful properties, like antiresorptive or antimicrobial properties, to the apatitic phase. This thesis focused on the development of hydroxyapatite nanophases with multiple ionic substitutions including gallium, or zinc ions, in association with magnesium and carbonate, with the purpose to provide double synergistic functionality as osteogenic and antibacterial biomaterial. Were developed bioactive materials based on Sr-substituted hydroxyapatite in the form of sintered targets. The obtained targets were treated with Pulsed Plasma Deposition (PED) resulting in the deposition of thin film coatings able to improve the roughness and wettability of PEEK, enhancing its osteointegrability. Were investigated heterogeneous gas-solid reactions, addressed to the biomorphic transformations of natural 3D porous structures into bone scaffolds with biomimetic composition and hierarchical organization, for application in load-bearing sites. The kinetics of the different reactions of the process were optimized to achieve complete and controlled phase transformation, maintaining the original 3-D morphology. Massive porous scaffolds made of ion-substituted hydroxyapatite and bone-mimicking structure were developed and tested in 3-D cell culture models.

Multi-organ support device for combined extracorporeal carbon dioxide removal and hemofiltration treatments with pump-free solution for ultrafiltration

The use of extracorporeal organ support (ECOS) devices is increasingly widespread, to temporarily sustain or replace the functions of impaired organs in critically ill patients. Among ECOS, respiratory functions are supplied by extracorporeal life support (ECLS) therapies like extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and extracorporeal carbon dioxide removal (ECCO2R), and renal replacement therapies (RRT) are used to support kidney functions. However, the leading cause of mortality in critically ill patients is multi-organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS), which requires a complex therapeutic strategy where extracorporeal treatments are often integrated to pharmacological approach. Recently, the concept of multi-organ support therapy (MOST) has been introduced, and several forms of isolated ECOS devices are sequentially connected to provide simultaneous support to different organ systems. The future of critical illness goes towards the development of extracorporeal devices offering multiple organ support therapies on demand by a single hardware platform, where treatment lines can be used alternately or in conjunction. The aim of this industrial PhD project is to design and validate a device for multi-organ support, developing an auxiliary line for renal replacement therapy (hemofiltration) to be integrated on a platform for ECCO2R. The intended purpose of the ancillary line, which can be connected on demand, is to remove excess fluids by ultrafiltration and achieve volume control by the infusion of a replacement solution, as patients undergoing respiratory support are particularly prone to develop fluid overload. Furthermore, an ultrafiltration regulation system shall be developed using a powered and software-modulated pinch-valve on the effluent line of the hemofilter, proposed as an alternative to the state-of-the-art solution with peristaltic pump.

Toxic cyanobacteria in water intended for drinking purpose: improvement of cells and toxins’ analyses and of treatments for their removal

Massive proliferations of cyanobacteria in freshwaters have recently increased, causing ecological and economic losses. Their ever-increasing presence in water sources destined to potabilization has become a major threat for public health, since several species can produce harmful toxins (cyanotoxin). Therefore, additional specific measures to improve management and treatment of drinking water(s) are required. The PhD thesis investigates toxic cyanobacteria in drinking waters with a special focus on Emilia-Romagna (Italy), throughout three separated chapters, each with different specific objectives. The first chapter aims at improving the fast monitoring of cyanobacteria in drinking water, which was investigated by testing different models of multi-wavelength spectrofluorometers. Inter-laboratories calibrations were conducted using mono-specific cultures and field samples, and both the feasibility and the technical limitations of such tools were illustrated. The second chapter evaluates the effectiveness of drinking water treatments in removing cyanobacterial cells and toxins. Two chlorinated oxidants (sodium hypochlorite and chlorine dioxide) already in use for pre-oxidation during water potabilization, were tested on cultures of the toxic cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa posing a specific focus on toxin removal and revealing that pre-oxidation can cause the release of toxins and unknown metabolites. Innovative treatments based on non-thermal plasma were also tested, observing an effective and rapid inactivation of cyanobacterial cells. The third chapter presents a study on a cyanobacterium isolated from a drinking water reservoir of Emilia-Romagna and investigated by combining biological, chemical, and genomic methods. Although the strain did not produce any known cyanotoxin, high toxicity of water-extract was observed in bioassays and potential implications for drinking water were discussed. Overall, the PhD thesis offers new insights into toxic cyanobacteria management in drinking water, highlighting best practices for drinking water managers regarding their detection and removal. Additionally, the thesis provides new contributions to the understanding of the freshwater cyanobacteria community in the Emilia-Romagna region.

Distributed collision-free traffic management via vertex cover for multi-vehicle systems

In this thesis, we state the collision avoidance problem as a vertex covering problem, then we consider a distributed framework in which a team of cooperating Unmanned Vehicles (UVs) aim to solve this optimization problem cooperatively to guarantee collision avoidance between group members. For this purpose, we implement a distributed control scheme based on a robust Set-Theoretic Model Predictive Control ( ST-MPC) strategy, where the problem involves vehicles with independent dynamics but with coupled constraints, to capture required cooperative behavior.

Doehlert Design-desirability Function Multi-criteria Optimal Separation Of 17 Phenolic Compounds From Extra-virgin Olive Oil By Capillary Zone Electrophoresis.

In Brazil, the consumption of extra-virgin olive oil (EVOO) is increasing annually, but there are no experimental studies concerning the phenolic compound contents of commercial EVOO. The aim of this work was to optimise the separation of 17 phenolic compounds already detected in EVOO. A Doehlert matrix experimental design was used, evaluating the effects of pH and electrolyte concentration. Resolution, runtime and migration time relative standard deviation values were evaluated. Derringer's desirability function was used to simultaneously optimise all 37 responses. The 17 peaks were separated in 19min using a fused-silica capillary (50μm internal diameter, 72cm of effective length) with an extended light path and 101.3mmolL(-1) of boric acid electrolyte (pH 9.15, 30kV). The method was validated and applied to 15 EVOO samples found in Brazilian supermarkets.

Polyphenol Extraction Optimisation From Ceylon Gooseberry (dovyalis Hebecarpa) Pulp.

Originally from Asia, Dovyalis hebecarpa is a dark purple/red exotic berry now also produced in Brazil. However, no reports were found in the literature about phenolic extraction or characterisation of this berry. In this study we evaluate the extraction optimisation of anthocyanins and total phenolics in D. hebecarpa berries aiming at the development of a simple and mild analytical technique. Multivariate analysis was used to optimise the extraction variables (ethanol:water:acetone solvent proportions, times, and acid concentrations) at different levels. Acetone/water (20/80 v/v) gave the highest anthocyanin extraction yield, but pure water and different proportions of acetone/water or acetone/ethanol/water (with >50% of water) were also effective. Neither acid concentration nor time had a significant effect on extraction efficiency allowing to fix the recommended parameters at the lowest values tested (0.35% formic acid v/v, and 17.6 min). Under optimised conditions, extraction efficiencies were increased by 31.5% and 11% for anthocyanin and total phenolics, respectively as compared to traditional methods that use more solvent and time. Thus, the optimised methodology increased yields being less hazardous and time consuming than traditional methods. Finally, freeze-dried D. hebecarpa showed high content of target phytochemicals (319 mg/100g and 1,421 mg/100g of total anthocyanin and total phenolic content, respectively).

Behavior Of Listeria Monocytogenes In A Multi-species Biofilm With Enterococcus Faecalis And Enterococcus Faecium And Control Through Sanitation Procedures.

The formation of mono-species biofilm (Listeria monocytogenes) and multi-species biofilms (Enterococcus faecium, Enterococcus faecalis, and L. monocytogenes) was evaluated. In addition, the effectiveness of sanitation procedures for the control of the multi-species biofilm also was evaluated. The biofilms were grown on stainless steel coupons at various incubation temperatures (7, 25 and 39°C) and contact times (0, 1, 2, 4, 6 and 8days). In all tests, at 7°C, the microbial counts were below 0.4 log CFU/cm(2) and not characteristic of biofilms. In mono-species biofilm, the counts of L. monocytogenes after 8days of contact were 4.1 and 2.8 log CFU/cm(2) at 25 and 39°C, respectively. In the multi-species biofilms, Enterococcus spp. were present at counts of 8 log CFU/cm(2) at 25 and 39°C after 8days of contact. However, the L. monocytogenes in multi-species biofilms was significantly affected by the presence of Enterococcus spp. and by temperature. At 25°C, the growth of L. monocytogenes biofilms was favored in multi-species cultures, with counts above 6 log CFU/cm(2) after 8days of contact. In contrast, at 39°C, a negative effect was observed for L. monocytogenes biofilm growth in mixed cultures, with a significant reduction in counts over time and values below 0.4 log CFU/cm(2) starting at day 4. Anionic tensioactive cleaning complemented with another procedure (acid cleaning, disinfection or acid cleaning+disinfection) eliminated the multi-species biofilms under all conditions tested (counts of all micro-organisms<0.4 log CFU/cm(2)). Peracetic acid was the most effective disinfectant, eliminating the multi-species biofilms under all tested conditions (counts of the all microorganisms <0.4 log CFU/cm(2)). In contrast, biguanide was the least effective disinfectant, failing to eliminate biofilms under all the test conditions.

PARAFAC: uma ferramenta quimiométrica para tratamento de dados multidimensionais. Aplicações na determinação direta de fármacos em plasma humano por espectrofluorimetria

Since the last decade, the combined use of chemometrics and molecular spectroscopic techniques has become a new alternative for direct drug determination, without the need of physical separation. Among the new methodologies developed, the application of PARAFAC in the decomposition of spectrofluorimetric data should be highlighted. The first objective of this article is to describe the theoretical basis of PARAFAC. For this purpose, a discussion about the order of chemometric methods used in multivariate calibration and the development of multi-dimensional methods is presented first. The other objective of this article is to divulge for the Brazilian chemical community the potential of the combination PARAFAC/spectrofluorimetry for the determination of drugs in complex biological matrices. For this purpose, two applications aiming at determining, respectively, doxorrubicine and salicylate in human plasma are presented.