968 resultados para mortality probability prediction
Resumo:
Introduction. Nowadays, lung transplantation (LTx) allocation in Brazil is based mainly oil waiting time. There is a need to evaluate the equity of the current lung allocation system. Objectives. We sought to (1) determine the characteristics of registered patients on the waiting list and (2) identify predictors of death on the list. Materials and Methods. We analyzed the medical records as well as clinical and laboratory data of 164 patients registered on the waiting list from 2001 to June 2008. Predictors of mortality were obtained using Cox proportional hazards analysis. Results. Patients who were registered on the waiting list showed a mean age of 36.1 +/- 15.0 vs. 42.2 +/- 15.7 years, considering those who did versus did not, die on the list, respectively (P = .054). Emphysema was the most prevalent underlying disease among the patients who did not die on the list (28.8%); its prevalence was low among the patients who died on the list (6.5%; P = .009). The following variables correlated with the probability of death on the waiting list: emphysema or bronchiectasis diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.15; P = .002); activated partial thromboplastin time > 30 seconds (HR = 3.28; P = .002); serum albumin > 3.5 g/dL (HR = 0.41; P = .033); and hemoglobin saturation > 85% (HR = 0.44; P = .031). Conclusions. Some variables seemed to predict death on the LTx waiting list; these characteristics should be used to improve the LTx allocation criteria in Brazil.
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Objective: Several limitations of published bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equations have been reported. The aims were to develop in a multiethnic, elderly population a new prediction equation and cross-validate it along with some published BIA equations for estimating fat-free mass using deuterium oxide dilution as the reference method. Design and setting: Cross-sectional study of elderly from five developing countries. Methods: Total body water (TBW) measured by deuterium dilution was used to determine fat-free mass (FFM) in 383 subjects. Anthropometric and BIA variables were also measured. Only 377 subjects were included for the analysis, randomly divided into development and cross-validation groups after stratified by gender. Stepwise model selection was used to generate the model and Bland Altman analysis was used to test agreement. Results: FFM = 2.95 - 3.89 (Gender) + 0.514 (Ht(2)/Z) + 0.090 (Waist) + 0.156 (Body weight). The model fit parameters were an R(2), total F-Ratio, and the SEE of 0.88, 314.3, and 3.3, respectively. None of the published BIA equations met the criteria for agreement. The new BIA equation underestimated FFM by just 0.3 kg in the cross-validation sample. The mean of the difference between FFM by TBW and the new BIA equation were not significantly different; 95% of the differences were between the limits of agreement of -6.3 to 6.9 kg of FFM. There was no significant association between the mean of the differences and their averages (r = 0.008 and p = 0.2). Conclusions: This new BIA equation offers a valid option compared with some of the current published BIA equations to estimate FFM in elderly subjects from five developing countries.
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The strong inflammatory reaction that occurs in the heart during the acute phase of Trypanosoma cruzi infection is modulated by cytokines and chemokines produced by leukocytes and cardiomyocytes. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) have recently emerged as modulators of cardiovascular inflammation. In the present study we investigated the role of MMP-2 and MMP-9 in T. cruzi-induced myocarditis, by use of immunohistochemical analysis, gelatin zymography, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and real-time polymerase chain reaction to analyze the cardiac tissues of T. cruzi-infected C57BL/6 mice. Increased transcripts levels, immunoreactivity, and enzymatic activity for MMP-2 and MMP-9 were observed by day 14 after infection. Mice treated with an MMP inhibitor showed significantly decreased heart inflammation, delayed peak in parasitemia, and improved survival rates, compared with the control group. Reduced levels of cardiac tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interferon-gamma, serum nitrite, and serum nitrate were also observed in the treated group. These results suggest an important role for MMPs in the induction of T. cruzi-induced acute myocarditis.
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Rationale: The reduction of neutrophil migration to the bacterial focus is associated with poor outcome in sepsis. Objectives: The objective of this study was to identify soluble substances in the blood of septic mice that inhibit neutrophil migration. Methods: A pool of serum obtained from mice 2 hours after the induction of severe sepsis by cecal ligation and puncture inhibited the neutrophil migration. The proteins with inhibitory activity on neutrophil migration were isolated by Blue-Sepharose chromatography, high-performance liquid chromatography, and electrophoresis, and identified by mass spectrometry. Measurements and Main Results: Hemopexin was identified as the serum component responsible for the inhibition of neutrophil migration. In sepsis, the pretreatment of wild-type mice with hemopexin inhibited neutrophil migration to the focus of infection and decreased the survival rate from 87.5 to 50.0%. Hemopexin-null mice subjected to severe sepsis presented normal neutrophil migration, low bacteremia, and an improvement of 40% in survival rate. Moreover, hemopexin inhibited the neutrophil chemotaxis response evoked by C5a or macrophage inflammatory protein-2 and induced a reduction of CXCR2 and L-selectin as well as the up-regulation of CD11b expression in neutrophil membranes. The inhibitory effect of hemopexin on neutrophil chemotaxis was prevented by serine protease inhibitors or ATP. In addition, serum levels of ATP were decreased 2 hours after severe sepsis. Conclusions: These data demonstrate for the first time the inhibitory role of hemopexin in neutrophil migration during sepsis and suggest that the therapeutic inhibition of hemopexin or its protease activity could improve neutrophil migration to the focus of infection and survival in sepsis.
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This study provides evidence supporting the idea that although inflammatory cells migration to the cardiac tissue is necessary to control the growth of Trypanosoma cruzi, the excessive influx of such cells during acute myocarditis may be deleterious to the host. Production of lipid mediators of inflammation like leukotrienes (LTs) along with cytokines and chemokines largely influences the severity of inflammatory injury in response to tissue parasitism. T cruzi infection in mice deficient in 5-lipoxygenase (5-LO), the enzyme responsible for the synthesis of LTs and other lipid inflammatory mediators, resulted in transiently increased parasitemia, and improved survival rate compared with WT mice. Myocardia from 5-LO(-/-) mice exhibited reduced inflammation, collagen deposition, and migration of CD4(+), CD8(+), and IFN-gamma-producer cells compared with WT littermates. Moreover, decreased amounts of TNF-alpha, IFN-gamma, and nitric oxide synthase were found in the hearts of 5-LO(-/-) mice. Interestingly, despite of early higher parasitic load, 5-LO(-/-) mice survived, and controlled T cruzi infection. These results show that efficient parasite clearance is possible in a context of moderate inflammatory response, as occurred in 5-LO(-/-) mice, in which reduced myocarditis protects the animals during T cruzi infection. (c) 2010 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
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Oxidative stress plays an important role in the development of cognitive impairment in sepsis. Here we assess the effects of acute and extended administration of cannabidiol (CBD) on oxidative stress parameters in peripheral organs and in the brain, cognitive impairment, and mortality in rats submitted to sepsis by cecal ligation and perforation (CLP). To this aim, male Wistar rats underwent either sham operation or CLP. Rats subjected to CLP were treated by intraperitoneal injection with ""basic support"" and CBD (at 2.5, 5, or 10 mg/kg once or daily for 9 days after CLP) or vehicle. Six hours after CLP (early times), the rats were killed and samples from lung, liver, kidney, heart, spleen, and brain (hippocampus, striatum, and cortex) were obtained and assayed for thiobarbituric acid reactive species (TBARS) formation and protein carbonyls. On the 10th day (late times), the rats were submitted to the inhibitory avoidance task. After the test, the animals were killed and samples from lung, liver, kidney, heart, spleen, and brain (hippocampus) were obtained and assayed for TBARS formation and protein carbonyls. The acute and extended administration of CBD at different doses reduced TBARS and carbonyl levels in some organs and had no effects in others, ameliorated cognitive impairment, and significantly reduced mortality in rats submitted to CLP. Our data provide the first experimental demonstration that CBD reduces the consequences of sepsis induced by CLP in rats, by decreasing oxidative stress in peripheral organs and in the brain, improving impaired cognitive function, and decreasing mortality. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Dietary patterns have been related to health outcomes and morbi-mortality. Mediterranean diet indexes are correlated With adequate nutrient intake. The objective of the present study was to analyse the adequacy of nutrient intake of a posteriori defined Mediterranean (MDP) and Western (WDP) diet patterns in the Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra (SUN) cohort. A sample of 17 197 subjects participated in the study. Participants completed I 136-item validated semi-quantitative FFQ. Principal component analysis was used to define dietary patterns. Individuals were classified according to quintiles of adherence based on dietary pattern scores. Non-dietary variables, such as smoking and physical activity habits, were also taken into account. The probability approach was used to assess nutrient intake adequacy of certain vitamins (vitamins B(12), B(6), B(3), B(2), B(1), A, C, D and E) and minerals (Na, Zn, iodine, Se, folic acid, P, Mg, K, Fe and Ca). Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the adequacy of nutrient intake according to adherence to dietary patterns. WDP and MDP were defined. A higher quintile of adherence to an MDP was associated to I lower prevalence of inadequacy for the intake of Zn, iodine, vitamin E, Mg, Fe, vitamin B I, vitamin A, Se, vitamin C and folic acid. The adjusted OR for not reaching at least six (or at leas( ten) nutrient recommendations were 0.09 (95% Cl: 0.07, 0.11) (and 0.02 (95% Cl: 0.00, 0.16)) for the upper quintile of MDP and 4.4 (95% Cl: 3.6, 5.5) and 2.5 (95 % Cl: 1.1, 5.4) for the WDP. The MDP was associated to a better profile of nutrient intake.
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Low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS) is a common problem following cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) in neonates and infants, and its early recognition remains a challenging task. We aimed to test whether a multimarker approach combining inflammatory and cardiac markers provides complementary information for prediction of LCOS and death in children submitted to cardiac surgery with CPB. Forty-six children younger than 18 months with congenital heart defects were prospectively enrolled. No intervention was made. Blood samples were collected pre-operatively, during CPB and post-operatively (PO) for measurement of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha, cardiac troponin I (cTnI) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Clinical data and outcome variables were recorded. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of LCOS and death. Multivariate logistic regression identified pre-operative NT-proBNP and IL-8 4 h PO as independent predictors of LCOS, while cTnI 4 h PO and CPB length were independent predictors of death. The use of inflammatory and cardiac markers in combination improved sensitivity, negative predictive value and accuracy of the models. In conclusion, the combined assessment of inflammatory and cardiac biochemical markers can be useful for identifying young children at increased risk for LCOS and death after heart surgery with CPB. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent complication in hospitalized patients, especially in those in intensive care units (ICU). The RIFLE classification might be a valid prognostic factor for critically ill cancer patients. The present study aims to evaluate the discriminatory capacity of RIFLE versus other general prognostic scores in predicting hospital mortality in critically ill cancer patients. Methods: This is a single-center study conducted in a cancer-specialized ICU in Brazil. All of the 288 patients hospitalized from May 2006 to June 2008 were included. RIFLE classification, APACHE II, SOFA, and SAPS II scores were calculated and the area under receiver operating characteristic (AROC) curves and logistic multiple regression were performed using hospital mortality as the outcome. Results: AKI, defined by RIFLE criteria, was observed in 156 (54.2%) patients. The distribution of patients with any degree of AKI was: risk, n = 96 (33.3%); injury, n = 30 (10.4%), and failure, n = 30 (10.4%). Mortality was 13.6% for non-AKI patients, 49% for RIFLE `R` patients, 62.3% for RIFLE `I` patients, and 86.8% for RIFLE `F` patients (p = 0.0006). Logistic regression analysis showed that RIFLE criteria, APACHE II, SOFA, and SAPS II were independent factors for mortality in this population. The discrimination of RIFLE was good (AROC 0.801, 95% CI 0.748-0.854) but inferior compared to those of APACHE II (AROC 0.940, 95% CI 0.915-0.966), SOFA (AROC 0.910, 95% CI 0.876-0.943), and SAPS II (AROC 0.869, 95% CI 0.827-0.912). Conclusion: AKI is a frequent complication in ICU patients with cancer. RIFLE was inferior to commonly used prognostic scores for predicting mortality in this cohort of patients. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel
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Although many carnivores are of conservation concern, most are poorly studied. The maned wolf Chrysocyon brachyurus Illiger, 1811 is the largest South American canid with a broad distribution; however, the largest portion of its range is in the Brazilian Cerrado savannah, where due to intensive agricultural expansion, it is threatened by habitat loss. Maned wolf population trends are virtually unknown. We analyzed radio telemetry data from a 13-year study in Emas National Park, central Brazil, with Burnham`s live recapture/dead recovery models in the program MARK to obtain the first analytically sound estimate of the apparent maned wolf survival rate. We constructed 16 candidate models including variation in survival rate and resighting probability associated with an individual`s sex or age and year of study. Apparent adult survival rate throughout the study ranged from 0.28 (se=0.08) to 0.97 (se=0.06). There was no evidence for sex specificity but strong support for time variation. Model weights supported an age effect and the subadult survival rate was 0.63 (se=0.15). Results indicate similar life patterns for male and female maned wolves and similar mortality risks for adults and subadults in the study area. The observed temporal fluctuations of adult survival rate are important for population dynamics as they decrease average population growth rates. Population dynamics are central for conservation planning and our results are an important step towards a better understanding of the maned wolf`s ecology.