Wind generation and electricity demand during the severe winter of 2009/10 in Ireland

Throughout the world the share of wind power in the generation mix is increasing. In the All Island Grid, of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland there is now over 1.5 GW of installed wind power. As the penetration of these variable, non-dispatchable generators increases, power systems are becoming more sensitive to weather events on the supply side as well as on the demand side. In the temperate climate of Ireland, sensitivity of supply to weather is mainly due to wind variability while demand sensitivity is driven by space heating or cooling loads. The interplay of these two weather-driven effects is of particular concern if demand spikes driven by low temperatures coincide with periods of low winds. In December 2009 and January 2010 Ireland experienced a prolonged spell of unusually cold conditions. During much of this time, wind generation output was low due to low wind speeds. The impacts of this event are presented as a case study of the effects of weather extremes on power systems with high penetrations of variable renewable generation.

Influence of tropical easterlies in southern Africa's winter rainfall zone during the Holocene

South Africa's southwestern Cape occupies a critical transition zone between Southern Hemisphere temperate (winter) and tropical (summer) moisture-bearing systems. In the recent geological past, it has been proposed that the relative influence of these systems may have changed substantially, but little reliable evidence regarding regional hydroclimates and rainfall seasonality exists to refine or substantiate the understanding of long-term dynamics. In this paper we present a mid-to late Holocene multi-proxy record of environmental change from a rock hyrax midden from Katbakkies Pass, located along the modern boundary between the winter and summer rainfall zones. Derived from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes, fossil pollen and microcharcoal, these data provide a high resolution record of changes in humidity, and insight into changes in rainfall seasonality. Whereas previous work concluded that the site had generally experienced only subtle environmental change during the Holocene, our records indicate that significant, abrupt changes have occurred in the region over the last 7000 years. Contrary to expectations based on the site's location, these data indicate that the primary determinant of changes in humidity is summer rather than winter rainfall variability, and its influence on drought season intensity and/or length. These findings are consistent with independent records of upwelling along the southern and western coasts, which indicate that periods of increased humidity are related to increased tropical easterly flow. This substantially refines our understanding of the nature of temperate and tropical circulation system dynamics in SW Africa, and how changes in their relative dominance have impacted regional environments during the Holocene. 

Untreated Mild Hyperglycemia During Pregnancy and Anthropometric Measures of Obesity in Offspring at Age 5-7 Years

OBJECTIVE: Obesity in the offspring of women with hyperglycemia during pregnancy has been reported, but the results are conflicting. This study examined the association of hyperglycemia during pregnancy and anthropometry in 5- to 7-year-old offspring whose mothers participated in the Hyperglycemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes (HAPO) Study at the Belfast Centre.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Women in the HAPO study underwent a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at approximately 28 weeks of gestation. Mothers and caregivers remained blinded to the results unless the fasting plasma glucose (FPG) concentration was >5.8 mmol/L or the 2-h plasma glucose (2hPG) concentration was >11.1 mmol/L. Offspring weight, height, and skin-fold thicknesses (triceps, subscapular, and suprailiac) were measured at age 5-7 years. Overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity were defined as a BMI z score ≥85th, ≥95th, and ≥99th percentile, respectively, based on the 1990 British Growth Standard.

RESULTS: Belfast HAPO offspring (n = 1,320, 82%) aged 5-7 years attended for follow-up. Using multiple regression, maternal FPG, 1h PG, and 2hPG did not show any relation to offspring BMI z score or offspring skin-fold sum independent of maternal BMI at OGTT and offspring birth weight z score. This lack of association with maternal glycemia persisted with the offspring BMI z score expressed as ≥85th, ≥95th, or 99th percentile, and the sum of skin folds expressed as ≥90th percentile specific for sex. The initially significant relation between FPG and all offspring adiposity measures was explained by maternal BMI at the OGTT.

CONCLUSIONS: After adjustment for maternal BMI at the OGTT, higher maternal FPG concentration during pregnancy (short of diabetes) is no longer a risk factor for obesity, as reflected by BMI and the sum of skin folds in offspring aged 5-7 years.

Winter Is Coming: Seasonal Variation in Resting Metabolic Rate of the European Badger (Meles meles)

Resting metabolic rate (RMR) is a measure of the minimum energy requirements of an animal at rest, and can give an indication of the costs of somatic maintenance. We measured RMR of free-ranging European badgers (Meles meles) to determine whether differences were related to sex, age and season. Badgers were captured in live-traps and placed individually within a metabolic chamber maintained at 20 ± 1°C. Resting metabolic rate was determined using an open-circuit respirometry system. Season was significantly correlated with RMR, but no effects of age or sex were detected. Summer RMR values were significantly higher than winter values (mass-adjusted mean ± standard error: 2366 ± 70 kJ⋅d-1; 1845 ± 109 kJ⋅d-1, respectively), with the percentage difference being 24.7%. While under the influence of anaesthesia, RMR was estimated to be 25.5% lower than the combined average value before administration, and after recovery from anaesthesia. Resting metabolic rate during the autumn and winter was not significantly different to allometric predictions of basal metabolic rate for mustelid species weighing 1 kg or greater, but badgers measured in the summer had values that were higher than predicted. Results suggest that a seasonal reduction in RMR coincides with apparent reductions in physical activity and body temperature as part of the overwintering strategy ('winter lethargy') in badgers. This study contributes to an expanding dataset on the ecophysiology of medium-sized carnivores, and emphasises the importance of considering season when making predictions of metabolic rate.

Using microbiological tracers to assess the impact of winter land use restrictions on the quality of stream headwaters in a small catchment.

Diverse land use activities can elevate risk of microbiological contamination entering stream headwaters. Spatially distributed water quality monitoring carried out across a 17km(2) agricultural catchment aimed to characterize microbiological contamination reaching surface water and investigate whether winter agricultural land use restrictions proved effective in addressing water quality degradation. Combined flow and concentration data revealed no significant difference in fecal indicator organism (FIO) fluxes in base flow samples collected during the open and prohibited periods for spreading organic fertilizer, while relative concentrations of Escherichia coli, fecal streptococci and sulfite reducing bacteria indicated consistently fresh fecal pollution reached aquatic receptors during both periods. Microbial source tracking, employing Bacteroides 16S rRNA gene markers, demonstrated a dominance of bovine fecal waste in river water samples upstream of a wastewater treatment plant discharge during open periods. This contrasted with responses during prohibited periods where human-derived signatures dominated. Differences in microbiological signature, when viewed with hydrological data, suggested that increasing groundwater levels restricted vertical infiltration of effluent from on-site wastewater treatment systems and diverted it to drains and surface water. Study results reflect seasonality of contaminant inputs, while suggesting winter land use restrictions can be effective in limiting impacts of agricultural wastes to base flow water quality.

Predicting conversion to dementia in a memory clinic: A standard clinical approach compared with an empirically defined clustering method (latent profile analysis) for mild cognitive impairment subtyping

Introduction
Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) has clinical value in its ability to predict later dementia. A better understanding of cognitive profiles can further help delineate who is most at risk of conversion to dementia. We aimed to (1) examine to what extent the usual MCI subtyping using core criteria corresponds to empirically defined clusters of patients (latent profile analysis [LPA] of continuous neuropsychological data) and (2) compare the two methods of subtyping memory clinic participants in their prediction of conversion to dementia.

Methods
Memory clinic participants (MCI, n = 139) and age-matched controls (n = 98) were recruited. Participants had a full cognitive assessment, and results were grouped (1) according to traditional MCI subtypes and (2) using LPA. MCI participants were followed over approximately 2 years after their initial assessment to monitor for conversion to dementia.

Results
Groups were well matched for age and education. Controls performed significantly better than MCI participants on all cognitive measures. With the traditional analysis, most MCI participants were in the amnestic multidomain subgroup (46.8%) and this group was most at risk of conversion to dementia (63%). From the LPA, a three-profile solution fit the data best. Profile 3 was the largest group (40.3%), the most cognitively impaired, and most at risk of conversion to dementia (68% of the group).

Discussion
LPA provides a useful adjunct in delineating MCI participants most at risk of conversion to dementia and adds confidence to standard categories of clinical inference.

Mild temperature palladium-catalyzed ammoxidation of ethanol to acetonitrile

The ammoxidation of ethanol is investigated as a renewable process for the production of acetonitrile from a bio-feedstock. Palladium catalysts are shown to be active and very selective (>99%) to this reaction at moderate to low temperatures (150-240 °C), with acetonitrile yields considered a function of Pd morphology. Further investigations reveal that the stability of these catalysts is influenced by an unselective product, and that any deactivation observed is reversible. Interpretation of this deactivation allows operating conditions to be defined for the stable, high yielding production of acetonitrile from ethanol.

Epidemiology, Patterns of Care, and Mortality for Patients With Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Intensive Care Units in 50 Countries

Importance Limited information exists about the epidemiology, recognition, management, and outcomes of patients with the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).

Objectives To evaluate intensive care unit (ICU) incidence and outcome of ARDS and to assess clinician recognition, ventilation management, and use of adjuncts—for example prone positioning—in routine clinical practice for patients fulfilling the ARDS Berlin Definition.

Design, Setting, and Participants The Large Observational Study to Understand the Global Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Failure (LUNG SAFE) was an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study of patients undergoing invasive or noninvasive ventilation, conducted during 4 consecutive weeks in the winter of 2014 in a convenience sample of 459 ICUs from 50 countries across 5 continents.

Exposures Acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was ICU incidence of ARDS. Secondary outcomes included assessment of clinician recognition of ARDS, the application of ventilatory management, the use of adjunctive interventions in routine clinical practice, and clinical outcomes from ARDS.

Results Of 29 144 patients admitted to participating ICUs, 3022 (10.4%) fulfilled ARDS criteria. Of these, 2377 patients developed ARDS in the first 48 hours and whose respiratory failure was managed with invasive mechanical ventilation. The period prevalence of mild ARDS was 30.0% (95% CI, 28.2%-31.9%); of moderate ARDS, 46.6% (95% CI, 44.5%-48.6%); and of severe ARDS, 23.4% (95% CI, 21.7%-25.2%). ARDS represented 0.42 cases per ICU bed over 4 weeks and represented 10.4% (95% CI, 10.0%-10.7%) of ICU admissions and 23.4% of patients requiring mechanical ventilation. Clinical recognition of ARDS ranged from 51.3% (95% CI, 47.5%-55.0%) in mild to 78.5% (95% CI, 74.8%-81.8%) in severe ARDS. Less than two-thirds of patients with ARDS received a tidal volume 8 of mL/kg or less of predicted body weight. Plateau pressure was measured in 40.1% (95% CI, 38.2-42.1), whereas 82.6% (95% CI, 81.0%-84.1%) received a positive end-expository pressure (PEEP) of less than 12 cm H2O. Prone positioning was used in 16.3% (95% CI, 13.7%-19.2%) of patients with severe ARDS. Clinician recognition of ARDS was associated with higher PEEP, greater use of neuromuscular blockade, and prone positioning. Hospital mortality was 34.9% (95% CI, 31.4%-38.5%) for those with mild, 40.3% (95% CI, 37.4%-43.3%) for those with moderate, and 46.1% (95% CI, 41.9%-50.4%) for those with severe ARDS.

Conclusions and Relevance Among ICUs in 50 countries, the period prevalence of ARDS was 10.4% of ICU admissions. This syndrome appeared to be underrecognized and undertreated and associated with a high mortality rate. These findings indicate the potential for improvement in the management of patients with ARDS.

Handbook of Disabled Children's Childhoods: Building Understandings: Child, Youth, Family and Disability. Palgrave Macmillan:Disabled Children in Out-of-Home Care: Issues and Challenges for Practice Kelly, B., Sandra, D. & Winter, K. 2016

This chapter provides an overview of some of the key findings from a large mixed methods study regarding disabled children in care in Northern Ireland

Call & response - Winter 2008

Call & Response is the newsletter of the South Carolina African American Heritage Commission, whose mission is to identify and promote the preservation of historic sites, structures, buildings, and culture of the African American experience in South Carolina. This is volume III, number 1 and includes a message from the chair, list of board members, preservation project profile, news from the South Carolina Department of Archives and History and events calendar.

Call & response - Winter 2009

Call & Response is the newsletter of the South Carolina African American Heritage Commission, whose mission is to identify and promote the preservation of historic sites, structures, buildings, and culture of the African American experience in South Carolina. This is volume IV, number 1 and includes a message from the chair, list of board members, preservation project profile, news from the South Carolina Department of Archives and History, and events calendar.

Call & response - Winter 2010

Call & Response is the newsletter of the South Carolina African American Heritage Commission, whose mission is to identify and promote the preservation of historic sites, structures, buildings, and culture of the African American experience in South Carolina. This is volume V, number 1 and includes a message from the chair, list of board members, preservation project profile, news from the South Carolina Department of Archives and History, annual meeting information, and events calendar.

Underway O2/Ar-estiment net community production across the Kuroshio Extension and impact on winter pCO2 drawdown

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445