Multistratum response surface designs

Response surface designs are usually described as if the treatments have been completely randomized to the experimental units. However, in practice there is often a structure to the units, implying the need for blocking. If, in addition, some factors are more difficult to vary between units than others, a multistratum structure arises naturally. We present a general strategy for constructing response surface designs in multistratum unit structures. Designs are constructed stratum by stratum, starting in the highest stratum. In each stratum a prespecified treatment set for the factors applied in that stratum is arranged to be nearly orthogonal to the units in the higher strata, allowing-for all the effects that have to be estimated. Three examples are given to show the applicability of the method and are also used to check the relationship of the final design to the choice of treatment set. Finally, some practical considerations in randomization are discussed.

Análise de fatores genéticos e ambientais que afetam a infestação de fêmeas bovinas da raça Caracu por carrapatos (Boophilus microplus)

Este trabalho foi conduzido com o objetivo de avaliar o efeito de fatores de meio sobre a infestação de bovinos Caracu pelo carrapato Boophilus microplus (Canestrini, 1887) e estimar parâmetros genéticos do grau de infestação por esse ectoparasita. Foram realizadas contagens em fêmeas de dois rebanhos, nas quatro estações, por dois anos consecutivos (setembro/1998 a julho/2000). Contou-se o número de carrapatos (NC) em um dos lados do animal e atribuiu-se escore visual (EC) de acordo com a quantidade de carrapatos no animal. Foram feitas de uma a oito avaliações, totalizando-se 4.079 e 3.994 observações de NC e EC, respectivamente, em 718 animais. Os dados foram analisados pelo método dos quadrados mínimos com um modelo que incluiu efeitos de rebanho (R), cor do animal (C), R x C, animal dentro de R x C como erro a, ano e estação da avaliação, espessura de pelame e idade do animal como covariável. As estimativas dos componentes de variância foram obtidas pelo método da máxima verossimilhança restrita livre de derivadas, utilizando-se um modelo que incluiu os efeitos fixos de grupo de contemporâneos (fazenda-ano-época), espessura do pelame e idade do animal como covariável e os efeitos aleatórios aditivos diretos e de ambiente permanente. Antes das análises, a variável NC foi transformada para log10 (n + 1) e EC para (x + 0,5)½, em que n é o número de carrapatos contados no animal e x, o escore (0 a 4). A incidência de carrapatos foi maior no verão e, quanto maior a espessura do pelame, maior o nível de infestação. As estimativas de herdabilidade e repetibilidade foram, respectivamente, 0,22 e 0,29 para NC e 0,15 e 0,21 para EC; a correlação genética entre NC e EC foi igual a 1,00. Os resultados sugerem que é possível obter progresso genético para resistência a carrapato pela seleção.

Hair coat characteristics and sweating rate of Braford cows in Brazil

This paper deals with the effects of hair coat characteristics on the sweating rate of Brazilian Braford cows and estimation of heritabilities and genetic correlations of these traits. Data (n=1607) on hair length, coat thickness, hair diameter, number of hairs per unit area, coat reflectance and sweating rate were recorded from heifers and cows of a commercial herd managed on range under extensive system. The data were analyzed considering the following effects on the model for hair coat traits: classes of sires and contemporary groups; linear effects of month and genotype; linear and quadratic effects of age. The effect of sire was important (P<0.05) for all hair coat traits, except for number of hairs; contemporary groups affected (P<0.05) all hair coat traits; the effect of sampling month was important (P<0.05) for hair length and reflectance; genotype affected (P<0.05) hair length, diameter and coat reflectance; the quadratic effect of age was important (P<0.05) only for coat reflectance. Two models were used to analyze the sweating rate. The first model considered the following fixed effects: classes of contemporary groups and sires; linear effect of genotype, coat thickness, hair length, hair diameter, number of hairs, coat reflectance; linear and quadratic effects of time of day, age, air temperature, partial vapour pressure and radiant heat load. The second model used for the sweating rate considered the same fixed effects for the first model, except that the hair coat characteristics were adjusted for important effects used in the models to analyze hair coat traits. All meteorological factors and contemporary groups were important (P<0.05) on variation of sweating rate in both models. The Restricted Maximum. Likelihood (REML) method was used to estimate variance and covariance components under the sire model. Results included heritability estimates in narrow (h(2)) and broad (H) sense for single-trait analyzes: hair thickness (h(2)=0.16; H-2=0.26); hair length (h(2)=0.18; H-2=0.39); number of hairs (h(2)=0.08 +/- 0.07; H-2=0.08 +/- 0.07); hair diameter (h(2)=0.12 +/- 0.07; H-2=0.12 +/- 0.07); coat reflectance (h(2)=0.30; H-2=0.42); and sweating rate (h(2)=0.10 +/- 0.07; H-2=0.10 +/- 0.07). In general, the genetic correlations between the adaptive traits were favorable as for the direction to select for adaptation in tropical environment; however, they presented high standard errors. The results of this study imply that hair coat characteristics and sweating ability are important for the adaptability to heat stress and they must be better studied and further considered for selection for genetic progress of adaptation in tropical environment. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Fatores genéticos e de Meio na idade ao primeiro parto de caprinos leiteiros

Data on age at first kidding (IPP) were collected on seven farms in the Brazilian Southeastern region which explored breds. Least squares (LS) were used to evaluate the effects of environmental factors and to estimate variance components, and the derivative-free restricted maximum likelihood (DFREML) method was used to estimate the variance components of IPP and to genetically evaluate the goats used in the southest region of Brazil. The LS mean and standard error of IPP were 607.18 +/- 17.09 days. The interaction of year x kidding season had a significantly influenced IPP, indicating that management conditions varied among the seasons within each specific year, with a direct influence on body weight which is the main criterion adopted by farmers to decide when the animal is ready to breed. The effect of farm-breed combination influenced the IPP. The compararison among levels of farm-breed were done by cluster analysis. The results indicated that the individual goat management within each farm had a greater influence than breed, since goats of different breeds showed high and similar values on those farms having a high mean IPP. Heritability estimates obtained by LS using intraclass correlations among paternal half-sibs and those obtained by REML were 0.220 and 0.369, respectively.

Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in São Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of São Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of São Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

A Bayesian Analysis of Spectral ARMA Model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Constraints implementation for IQML and mode direction-of-arrival estimators

The iterative quadratic maximum likelihood IQML and the method of direction estimation MODE are well known high resolution direction-of-arrival DOA estimation methods. Their solutions lead to an optimization problem with constraints. The usual linear constraint presents a poor performance for certain DOA values. This work proposes a new linear constraint applicable to both DOA methods and compare their performance with two others: unit norm and usual linear constraint. It is shown that the proposed alternative performs better than others constraints. The resulting computational complexity is also investigated.

Assessing relationships between genetic evaluations using robust regression with an application to holsteins in Uruguay

Globalization of dairy cattle breeding has created a need for international sire proofs. Some early methods for converting proofs from one population to another are based on simple linear regression. An alternative robust regression method based on the t-distribution is presented, and maximum likelihood and Bayesian techniques for analysis are described, including the situation in which some proofs are missing. Procedures were used to investigate the relationship between Holstein sire proofs obtained by two Uruguayan genetic evaluation programs. The results suggest that conversion equations developed from data including only sires having proofs in both populations can lead to distorted results, relative to estimates obtained using techniques for incomplete data. There was evidence of non-normality of regression residuals, which constitutes an additional source of bias. A robust estimator may not solve all problems, but can provide simple conversion equations that are less sensitive to outlying proofs and to departures from assumptions.

Precision of yule-walker methods for the arma spectral model

In this work a new method is proposed of separated estimation for the ARMA spectral model based on the modified Yule-Walker equations and on the least squares method. The proposal of the new method consists of performing an AR filtering in the random process generated obtaining a new random estimate, which will reestimate the ARMA model parameters, given a better spectrum estimate. Some numerical examples will be presented in order to ilustrate the performance of the method proposed, which is evaluated by the relative error and the average variation coefficient.

Evaluación genética de búfalos de la raza Murrah para la producción de leche en el día de control y a los 305 días de lactancia

There were analyzed 4757 complete lactations of the Murrah breed, daughters of 187 bulls, with the goal of verifying the viability upon employing the test-day (PDLC), on substitution of the milk yield at 305th day of lactation (PL305), in the genetic evaluations. The components of variance for the PDLC1 to PDLC9 and for the PL305 were estimated in uni-traits analysis according to maximum restricted likelihood method. The used model included the genetic direct additive random effects, of residual and permanent environment. There were considered as fixed effects, the contemporary group and the number of milkings and the age of the cow at the moment of parity co-variable (quadratic and linear effect). The contemporary groups were constituted by the herd-year-month of control for the PDLC and by herd-year-epoch of parity for PL305. The estimates of heritability for the PDLC and PL305 were 0.12 to 0.23 and 0.22, respectively. The correlations of order of the predicted genetic values for the 187 bulls, obtained between the PDLC and the PL305, were from moderate to high, varying from 67.74 to 83.12. From the minimum selection of the 10% of the best bulls relating to the predicted genetic value for the PL305, the coincidence among the classification of these animals was over 68%, when evaluated by the PDLC3,PDLC4,PDLC5 and PDLC6. Upon selecting the 5% of the best animals that coincidence presented a lower value.

Multivariate models for correlated count data

In this study, we deal with the problem of overdispersion beyond extra zeros for a collection of counts that can be correlated. Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial distributions have been considered. First, we propose a multivariate count model in which all counts follow the same distribution and are correlated. Then we extend this model in a sense that correlated counts may follow different distributions. To accommodate correlation among counts, we have considered correlated random effects for each individual in the mean structure, thus inducing dependency among common observations to an individual. The method is applied to real data to investigate variation in food resources use in a species of marsupial in a locality of the Brazilian Cerrado biome. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Improving methods in gap ecology: Revisiting size and shape distributions using a model selection approach

Questions: We assess gap size and shape distributions, two important descriptors of the forest disturbance regime, by asking: which statistical model best describes gap size distribution; can simple geometric forms adequately describe gap shape; does gap size or shape vary with forest type, gap age or the method used for gap delimitation; and how similar are the studied forests and other tropical and temperate forests? Location: Southeastern Atlantic Forest, Brazil. Methods: Analysing over 150 gaps in two distinct forest types (seasonal and rain forests), a model selection framework was used to select appropriate probability distributions and functions to describe gap size and gap shape. The first was described using univariate probability distributions, whereas the latter was assessed based on the gap area-perimeter relationship. Comparisons of gap size and shape between sites, as well as size and age classes were then made based on the likelihood of models having different assumptions for the values of their parameters. Results: The log-normal distribution was the best descriptor of gap size distribution, independently of the forest type or gap delimitation method. Because gaps became more irregular as they increased in size, all geometric forms (triangle, rectangle and ellipse) were poor descriptors of gap shape. Only when small and large gaps (> 100 or 400m2 depending on the delimitation method) were treated separately did the rectangle and isosceles triangle become accurate predictors of gap shape. Ellipsoidal shapes were poor descriptors. At both sites, gaps were at least 50% longer than they were wide, a finding with important implications for gap microclimate (e.g. light entrance regime) and, consequently, for gap regeneration. Conclusions: In addition to more appropriate descriptions of gap size and shape, the model selection framework used here efficiently provided a means by which to compare the patterns of two different types of forest. With this framework we were able to recommend the log-normal parameters μ and σ for future comparisons of gap size distribution, and to propose possible mechanisms related to random rates of gap expansion and closure. We also showed that gap shape varied highly and that no single geometric form was able to predict the shape of all gaps, the ellipse in particular should no longer be used as a standard gap shape. © 2012 International Association for Vegetation Science.

Frequency and genetic diversity of the MAT1 locus of Histoplasma capsulatum isolates in Mexico and Brazil

The MAT1-1 and MAT1-2 idiomorphs associated with the MAT1 locus of Histoplasma capsulatum were identified by PCR. A total of 28 fungal isolates, 6 isolates from human clinical samples and 22 isolates from environmental (infected bat and contaminated soil) samples, were studied. Among the 14 isolates from Mexico, 71.4% (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 48.3% to 94.5%) were of the MAT1-2 genotype, whereas 100% of the isolates from Brazil were of the MAT1-1 genotype. Each MAT1 idiomorphic region was sequenced and aligned, using the sequences of the G-217B (+mating type) and G-186AR (-mating type) strains as references. BLASTn analyses of the MAT1-1 and MAT1-2 sequences studied correlated with their respective+ and-mating type genotypes. Trees were generated by the maximum likelihood (ML) method to search for similarity among isolates of each MAT1 idiomorph. All MAT1-1 isolates originated from Brazilian bats formed a well-defined group; three isolates from Mexico, the G-217B strain, and a subgroup encompassing all soil-derived isolates and two clinical isolates from Brazil formed a second group; last, one isolate (EH-696P) from a migratory bat captured in Mexico formed a third group of the MAT1-1 genotype. The MAT1-2 idiomorph formed two groups, one of which included two H. capsulatum isolates from infected bats that were closely related to the G-186AR strain. The other group was formed by two human isolates and six isolates from infected bats. Concatenated ML trees, with internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1) -5.8S-ITS2 and MAT1-1 or MAT1-2 sequences, support the relatedness of MAT1-1 or MAT1-2 isolates. H. capsulatum mating types were associated with the geographical origin of the isolates, and all isolates from Brazil correlated with their environmental sources. © 2013, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Agregação e viés em medidas de diversidade: uma abordagem computacional intensiva

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Papel de polimorfismos genéticos nos genes IL10, TNF e LTA na hanseníase

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)