When and how to support renewables? Letting the data speak. Bruegel Working Paper 2014/01, February 2014

Low-carbon energy technologies are pivotal for decarbonising our economies up to 2050 while ensuring secure and affordable energy. Consequently, innovation that reduces the cost of low-carbon energy would play an important role in reducing transition costs. We assess the two most prominent innovation policy instruments (i) public research, development and demonstration (RD&D) subsidies and (ii) public deployment policies. Our results indicate that both deployment and RD&D coincide with increasing knowledge generation and the improved competitiveness of renewable energy technologies. We find that both support schemes together have a greater effect that they would individually, that RD&D support is unsurprisingly more effective in driving patents and that timing matters. Current wind deployment based on past wind RD&D spending coincides best with wind patenting. If we look into competitiveness we find a similar picture, with the greatest effect coming from deployment. Finally, we find significant cross-border effects, especially for winddeployment. Increased deployment in one country coincides with increased patenting in nearby countries. Based on our findings we argue that both deployment and RD&D support are needed to create innovation in renewable energy technologies. However, we worry that current support is unbalanced. Public spending on deployment has been two orders of magnitude larger (in 2010 about €48 billion in the five largest EU countries in 2010) than spending on RD&D support (about €315 million). Consequently, basing the policy mix more on empirical evidence could increase the efficiency of innovation policy targeted towards renewable energy technologies.

German companies strengthen their cooperation with Russian gas suppliers. OSW Commentary No. 64, 2011-10-24

Germany’s decision to give up the use of nuclear energy will force it to find a conventional low-carbon energy source as a replacement; in the short term, in addition to coal, this is likely to be gas. Due to their continued high debt and the losses associated with the end of atomic power, German companies will not be able to spend large funds on investing in conventional energy. First of all, they will aim to raise capital and repay their debts. The money for this will come from selling off their less profitable assets; this will include sales on the gas market. This will create opportunities for natural gas exporters and extraction companies such as Gazprom to buy back some of the German companies’ assets (electricity companies, for example). The German companies will probably continue to seek to recover the costs incurred in the investment projects already underway, such as Nord Stream, the importance of which will grow after Russian gas imports increase. At the same time, because of their debts, the German companies will seek to minimise their investment costs by selling some shares on the conventional energy market, to Russian corporations among others; the latter would thus be able to increase their stake in the gas market in both Western (Germany, Great Britain, the Benelux countries) and Central Europe (Poland, the Czech Republic). It is possible that while establishing the details of cooperation between the Russian and German companies, Russia will try to put pressure on Germany to give up competing projects such as Nabucco. However, a well-diversified German energy market should be able to defend itself against attempts to increase German dependence on Russian gas supplies and the dictates of high prices.

Elemental and stable isotopic composition of fine fraction samples of ODP Site 115-709 (Table 1)

Stable isotopic and minor element compositions were measured on the fine fraction of pelagic carbonate sediments from Ocean Drilling Program Site 709 in the central Indian Ocean. This section ranges in age from 47 Ma to the present. The observed compositional variations are the result of either paleoceanographic changes (past oceanic chemical or temperature variations) or diagenetic changes. The CaCO3 record is little affected by diagenesis. From previous work, carbonate content is known to be determined by the interplay of biological productivity, water column dissolution, and dilution. The carbon isotopic record is generally similar to previously published curves. A good correlation was observed between sea-level high stands and high 13C/12C ratios. This supports Shackleton's hypothesis that as the proportion of organic carbon buried in marine sediments becomes larger, oceanic-dissolved inorganic carbon becomes isotopically heavier. This proportion appears to be higher when sea level is higher and organic carbon is buried in more extensive shallow-shelf sediments. The strontium content and oxygen isotopic composition of carbonate sediments are much more affected by burial diagenesis. Low strontium concentrations are invariably associated with high values of d18O, probably indicating zones of greater carbonate recrystallization. Nevertheless, there is an inverse correlation between strontium concentration and sea level that is thought to be a result of high-strontium aragonitic sedimentation on shallow banks and shelves during high stands. Iron and manganese concentrations and, to a lesser extent, magnesium and strontium concentrations and carbon isotopic ratios are affected by early diagenetic reactions. These reactions are best observed in a slumped interval of sediments that occurs between 13.0 and 17.5 Ma. As a result of microbial reduction of manganese and iron oxides and dissolved sulfate, it is hypothesized that small amounts of mixed-metal carbonate cements are precipitated. These have low carbon isotopic ratios and high concentrations of metals.

Crystallography of carbide-free bainite in a hard bainitic steel

The convergent beam Kikuchi line diffraction technique has been used to accurately determine the orientation relationships between bainitic ferrite and retained austenite in a hard bainitic steel. A reproducible orientation relationship has been uniquely observed for both the upper and lower bainite. It is [GRAPHICS] However, the habit plane of upper bainite is different from that of lower bainite. The former has habit plane that is either within 5 degrees of (221)(A) or of (259)(A). The latter only corresponds with a habit plane that is within 5 degrees of (259)(A). The determined orientation relationship is completely consistent with reported results determined using the same technique with an accuracy of +/- 0.5 degrees in lath martensite in an Fe-20 wt.% Ni-6 wt.% Mn alloy and in a low carbon low alloy steel. It also agrees well with the orientation relationship between granular bainite and austenite in an Fe-19 wt.% Ni-3.5 wt.% Mn-0.15 wt.% C steel. Hence it is believed that, at least from a crystallographic point view, the bainite transformation has the characteristics of martensitic transformation. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of non-metallic inclusions upon the properties of linepipe steels

The principal aim of this work was to determine the role of non-metallic inclusions in the process of hydrogen stepwise cracking (SWC). Additionally, the influence of inclusions upon the notch ductility of hydrogen charged (HC) and uncharged (UN) tensile specimens was examined. To obtain a basis for experiment a series of low carbon-manganese steels were prepared by induction melting. In order to produce variations in the composition, morphology, volume fraction, size and distribution of the inclusions the steel chemistry was adjusted prior to casting by additions of deoxidiser and Ca-Si injection. Sections of each ingot were hot rolled. Metallography, image analysis, mechanical tests and hydrogen SWC tests were then carried out. The volume fraction, morphology, and shape of inclusions influenced the tensile ductility of the steels. Marked anisotropy was found in the steels containing type II MnS inclusions at all rolling temperatures, whereas the fully Ca treated steel was isotropic. It was found that several inclusion parameters (projected length PL, mean free distance MFD, nearest-neighbour distance NND) correlated with fracture strain. An increase in inclusion volume fraction and/or the dimension of inclusions on a plane parallel to the plane of fracture led to a decrease in fracture strain. The inclusion parameters did not correlate with the fracture strains for the HC tensile specimens. However, large or clusters of inclusions acted as the principal sites for crack initiation. `Fisheyes' or areas of `flat' fracture were often found on these fracture surfaces. The criteria for SWC initiation was found to be either large inclusions or clusters of inclusions. As the PL of inclusions increased the probability of large SWCs occurring increased. SWC initiation at inclusions was believed to occur at a critical concentration of hydrogen. Factors which assisted the concentration of hydrogen at inclusions were discussed. None of the proposed mechanisms of hydrogen embrittlement could be identified as the single cause of SWC.

Techno-economic assessment and uncertainty analysis of thermochemical processes for second generation biofuels

Biomass-To-Liquid (BTL) is one of the most promising low carbon processes available to support the expanding transportation sector. This multi-step process produces hydrocarbon fuels from biomass, the so-called “second generation biofuels” that, unlike first generation biofuels, have the ability to make use of a wider range of biomass feedstock than just plant oils and sugar/starch components. A BTL process based on gasification has yet to be commercialized. This work focuses on the techno-economic feasibility of nine BTL plants. The scope was limited to hydrocarbon products as these can be readily incorporated and integrated into conventional markets and supply chains. The evaluated BTL systems were based on pressurised oxygen gasification of wood biomass or bio-oil and they were characterised by different fuel synthesis processes including: Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, the Methanol to Gasoline (MTG) process and the Topsoe Integrated Gasoline (TIGAS) synthesis. This was the first time that these three fuel synthesis technologies were compared in a single, consistent evaluation. The selected process concepts were modelled using the process simulation software IPSEpro to determine mass balances, energy balances and product distributions. For each BTL concept, a cost model was developed in MS Excel to estimate capital, operating and production costs. An uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo statistical method, was also carried out to examine how the uncertainty in the input parameters of the cost model could affect the output (i.e. production cost) of the model. This was the first time that an uncertainty analysis was included in a published techno-economic assessment study of BTL systems. It was found that bio-oil gasification cannot currently compete with solid biomass gasification due to the lower efficiencies and higher costs associated with the additional thermal conversion step of fast pyrolysis. Fischer-Tropsch synthesis was the most promising fuel synthesis technology for commercial production of liquid hydrocarbon fuels since it achieved higher efficiencies and lower costs than TIGAS and MTG. None of the BTL systems were competitive with conventional fossil fuel plants. However, if government tax take was reduced by approximately 33% or a subsidy of £55/t dry biomass was available, transport biofuels could be competitive with conventional fuels. Large scale biofuel production may be possible in the long term through subsidies, fuels price rises and legislation.

Estimation of transportation battery second life for use in electricity grid systems

This paper presents research from part of a larger project focusing on the potential development of commercial opportunities for the reuse of batteries on the electricity grid system, subsequent to their primary use in low and ultra-low carbon vehicles, and investigating the life cycle issues surrounding the batteries. The work has three main areas; examination of electric vehicle fleet data in detail to investigate usage in first life. Batteries that have passed through a battery recycler at the end of their first life have been tested within the laboratory to confirm the general assumption that remaining capacity of 80% after use in transportation is a reasonable assumption as a basis for second-life applications. The third aspect of the paper is an investigation of the equivalent usage for three different second-life applications based on connection to the electricity grid. Additionally, the paper estimates the time to cell failure of the batteries within their second-life application to estimate lifespan for use within commercial investigations. © 2014 IEEE.

Modular ESS with second life batteries operating in grid independent mode

This work is part of a bigger project which aims to research the potential development of commercial opportunities for the re-use of batteries after their use in low carbon vehicles on an electricity grid or microgrid system. There are three main revenue streams (peak load lopping on the distribution Network to allow for network re-enforcement deferral, National Grid primary/ secondary/ high frequency response, customer energy management optimization). These incomes streams are dependent on the grid system being present. However, there is additional opportunity to be gained from also using these batteries to provide UPS backup when the grid is no longer present. Most UPS or ESS on the market use new batteries in conjunction with a two level converter interface. This produces a reliable backup solution in the case of loss of mains power, but may be expensive to implement. This paper introduces a modular multilevel cascade converter (MMCC) based ESS using second-life batteries for use on a grid independent industrial plant without any additional onsite generator as a potentially cheaper alternative. The number of modules has been designed for a given reliability target and these modules could be used to minimize/eliminate the output filter. An appropriate strategy to provide voltage and frequency control in a grid independent system is described and simulated under different disturbance conditions such as load switching, fault conditions or a large motor starting. A comparison of the results from the modular topology against a traditional two level converter is provided to prove similar performance criteria. The proposed ESS and control strategy is an acceptable way of providing backup power in the event of loss of grid. Additional financial benefit to the customer may be obtained by using a second life battery in this way.

Meshing radial networks at 11kV

This project evaluates the benefits of meshing existing 11kV radial networks in order to reduce losses and maximise the connection of low carbon distributed generation. These networks are often arranged as radial feeders with normally-open links between two of the feeders; the link is closed only to enable continuity of supply to an isolated portion of a feeder following a fault on the network. However, this link could also be closed permanently thus operating the network as a meshed topology under non-faulted conditions. The study will look at loss savings and the addition of distributed generation on a typical network under three different scenarios; traditional radial feeders, fixed meshed network and a dynamic meshed network. The networks are compared in terms of feeder losses, capacity, voltage regulation and fault levels.

Reliability estimation of second life battery system power electronic topologies for grid frequency response applications

This paper is part of a project which aims to research the opportunities for the re-use of batteries after their primary use in low and ultra low carbon vehicles on the electricity grid system. One potential revenue stream is to provide primary/secondary/high frequency response to National Grid through market mechanisms via DNO's or Energy service providers. Some commercial battery energy storage systems (BESS) already exist on the grid system, but these tend to use costly new or high performance batteries. Second life batteries should be available at lower cost than new batteries but reliability becomes an important issue as individual batteries may suffer from degraded performance or failure. Therefore converter topology design could be used to influence the overall system reliability. A detailed reliability calculation of different single phase battery-to-grid converter interfacing schemes is presented. A suitable converter topology for robust and reliable BESS is recommended.

Sizing energy storage on the 11kV distribution network

The cost and limited flexibility of traditional approaches to 11kV network reinforcement threatens to constrain the uptake of low carbon technologies. Ofgem has released £500m of funding for DNOs to trial innovative techniques and share the learning with the rest of the industry. One of the techniques under study is the addition of Energy Storage at key substations to the network to help with peak load lopping. This paper looks in detail at the sizing algorithm for use in the assessment of alternatives to traditional reinforcement and investigates a method of sizing a battery for use on a Network taking into account load growth, capacity fade and battery lifecycle issues. A further complication to the analysis is the method of operation of the battery system and how this affects the Depth of Discharge (DoD). The proposed method is being trialled on an area of 11kV network in Milton Keynes Central area and the simulation results are presented in this paper.

A high-efficiency solar rankine engine with isothermal expansion

Though the principle of the solar Rankine cycle is well known, with several examples reported in the literature, there is yet a scarcity of engines that could be efficiently applied in small-scale (<100 KW) applications. Hence, this paper presents a variant of the engine that uses an isothermal expansion to achieve a theoretical efficiency close to the Carnot limit. Generation of steam inside the power cylinder obviates the need for an external boiler. The device is suitable for slow-moving applications and is of particular interest for driving a batch-desalination process. Preliminary experiments have shown cycle efficiency of 16%, and a high work ratio of 0.997. ©The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Protection schemes for meshed VSC-HVDC transmission systems for large-scale offshore wind farms

This chapter discusses network protection of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission systems for large-scale offshore wind farms where the HVDC system utilizes voltage-source converters. The multi-terminal HVDC network topology and protection allocation and configuration are discussed with DC circuit breaker and protection relay configurations studied for different fault conditions. A detailed protection scheme is designed with a solution that does not require relay communication. Advanced understanding of protection system design and operation is necessary for reliable and safe operation of the meshed HVDC system under fault conditions. Meshed-HVDC systems are important as they will be used to interconnect large-scale offshore wind generation projects. Offshore wind generation is growing rapidly and offers a means of securing energy supply and addressing emissions targets whilst minimising community impacts. There are ambitious plans concerning such projects in Europe and in the Asia-Pacific region which will all require a reliable yet economic system to generate, collect, and transmit electrical power from renewable resources. Collective offshore wind farms are efficient and have potential as a significant low-carbon energy source. However, this requires a reliable collection and transmission system. Offshore wind power generation is a relatively new area and lacks systematic analysis of faults and associated operational experience to enhance further development. Appropriate fault protection schemes are required and this chapter highlights the process of developing and assessing such schemes. The chapter illustrates the basic meshed topology, identifies the need for distance evaluation, and appropriate cable models, then details the design and operation of the protection scheme with simulation results used to illustrate operation. © Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2014.

Impact of driver behaviour on availability of electric vehicle stored energy for STOR

As take up of low carbon vehicles increase, there is interest in using the energy stored in the vehicles to help maintain system frequency through ancillary services on the electricity grid system. Research into this area is generally classed as vehicle-to-grid research. In theory, the energy available from electric vehicles could be directly correlated to the vehicle's state of charge (SoC) and battery capacity during the time the car is parked and plugged in. However, not all the energy in the vehicle may be used, as some capacity is required by the driver for their next journey. As such, this paper uses data captured as part of a large scale electric vehicle trial to investigate the effect of three different types of driver routine on vehicle-to-grid availability. Each driver's behaviour is analysed to assess the energy that is available for STOR, with follow on journey requirements also considered.

Predicting practical benefits of dynamic asset ratings of 33kv distribution transformers

This paper reports potential benefits around dynamic thermal rating prediction of primary transformers within Western Power Distribution (WPD) managed Project FALCON (Flexible Approaches to Low Carbon Optimised Networks). Details of the thermal modelling, parameter optimisation and results validation are presented with asset and environmental data (measured and day/week-ahead forecast) which are used for determining dynamic ampacity. Detailed analysis of ratings and benefits and confidence in ability to accurately predict dynamic ratings are presented. Investigating the effect of sustained ONAN rating compared to a dynamic rating shows that there is scope to increase sustained ratings under ONAN operating conditions by up to 10% higher between December and March with a high degree of confidence. However, under high ambient temperature conditions this dynamic rating may also reduce in the summer months.