Managing uncertainty in complex stochastic models: design and emulation of a Rabies model

In this paper we present a novel method for emulating a stochastic, or random output, computer model and show its application to a complex rabies model. The method is evaluated both in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency on synthetic data and the rabies model. We address the issue of experimental design and provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of utilizing replicate model evaluations compared to a space-filling design. We employ the Mahalanobis error measure to validate the heteroscedastic Gaussian process based emulator predictions for both the mean and (co)variance. The emulator allows efficient screening to identify important model inputs and better understanding of the complex behaviour of the rabies model.

Pore structure and diffusional properties of hardened cement pastes

This study has investigated the inclusion of pulverised fuel ash (PFA) and blast furnace slag (BFS) into hardened cement pastes (HCP) in retarding the ingress of chloride ions and oxygen molecules from the external environment. The influence of environmental factors such as drying and carbonation on the pore structure and diffusional properties of OPC, OPC/30%PFA and OPC/65%BFS hardened pastes was investigated. Specimens were desorbed from a saturated surface dry condition to a near constant weight at 65% relative humidity (RH) while others were simultaneously exposed to a 65% RH atmosphere and a carbon dioxide atmosphere of up to 5% by volume until there were fully carbonated. The presence of the interfacial zone at the cement paste-aggregate interface was critically reviewed and identified. The influence of the interfacial zone on porosity and chloride ingress in assumed periodic composites of glass bead mortars was also studied. The investigations have demonstrated the following: (a) The use of fly ash and slag in blended cement pastes has resulted in a marked reduction in capillary porosity and rate of chloride ingress. (b) The ratio of oxygen to chloride diffusion coefficients increased from values close to 1 in permeable pastes, to values of around 15 in low-permeability blended fly ash and slag pastes. This supports the view that the diffusion of chloride ions is retarded by the surface charge of the hydrated cement gel in low-permeability pastes. (c) Compared with plain OPC pastes, the carbonation of blended fly ash and slag pastes resulted in a marked increase in the coarse capillary porosity and a corresponding increase in the oxygen and chloride diffusion rates.

Freemasonary in France during the Nazi occupation and it's rehabilitation after the end of the Second World War

This thesis examines the involvement of the French Freemason movement in the Resistance during the Occupation of France by the Germans 1939-1945, its relationship with the Vichy government and the effect the 'Nouvelle Révolution' had on the lives of individual Masons. To set the scene and to put the role of Freemasonry into perspective in the life of France and the French political system, the origins of French Freemasonry are examined and explained. The main French Masonic obediences are discussed and the differences between them emphasised. The particular attributes of a Freemason are described and the ideals and ethos of the Order is discussed. From its earliest days, Freemasonry has often been persecuted by the Roman Catholic Church or by extreme Right-wing movements. The history of this persecution is reviewed and the reasons for its persistence noted, with especial emphasis on the treatment of Freemasons under the fascist regimes of Italy and Germany. The fate of Freemasonry in countries under German control is also briefly examined. With the occupation of France by the Germans, the differences and similarities of the treatment of French and German Freemasons are discussed. The processes and legislation of this ban are closely examined and the part played by the Vichy government in the persecution of French Freemasonry is discussed. The effects of this persecution and the consequences for individuals are examined and the Freemason's role in the emerging Resistance movement is reviewed. The contribution of many lodges to the Resistance movement is examined and the sacrifice of many Freemasons for their ideals is emphasised.

A comparative assessment of waste incinerators in the UK

The uptake in Europe of Energy from Waste (EfW) incinerator plants has increased rapidly in recent years. In the UK, 25 municipal waste incinerators with energy recovery are now in operation; however, their waste supply chains and business practices vary significantly. With over a hundred more plant developments being considered it is important to establish best business practices for ensuring efficient environmental and operational performance. By reviewing the 25 plants we identify four suitable case study plants to compare technologies (moving grate, fluidised bed and rotary kiln), plant economics and operations. Using data collected from annual reports and through interviews and site visits we provide recommendations for improving the supply chain for waste incinerators and highlight the current issues and challenges faced by the industry. We find that plants using moving grate have a high availability of 87-92%. However, compared to the fluidised bed and rotary kiln, quantities of bottom ash and emissions of hydrogen chloride and carbon monoxide are high. The uptake of integrated recycling practices, combined heat and power, and post incineration non-ferrous metal collections needs to be increased among EfW incinerators in the UK. We conclude that one of the major difficulties encountered by waste facilities is the appropriate selection of technology, capacity, site, waste suppliers and heat consumers. This study will be of particular value to EfW plant developers, government authorities and researchers working within the sector of waste management. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

A comparative assessment of waste incinerators in the UK

The uptake in Europe of Energy from Waste (EfW) incinerator plants has increased rapidly in recent years. In the UK, 25 municipal waste incinerators with energy recovery are now in operation; however, their waste supply chains and business practices vary significantly. With over a hundred more plant developments being considered it is important to establish best business practices for ensuring efficient environmental and operational performance. By reviewing the 25 plants we identify four suitable case study plants to compare technologies (moving grate, fluidised bed and rotary kiln), plant economics and operations. Using data collected from annual reports and through interviews and site visits we provide recommendations for improving the supply chain for waste incinerators and highlight the current issues and challenges faced by the industry. We find that plants using moving grate have a high availability of 87-92%. However, compared to the fluidised bed and rotary kiln, quantities of bottom ash and emissions of hydrogen chloride and carbon monoxide are high. The uptake of integrated recycling practices, combined heat and power, and post incineration non-ferrous metal collections needs to be increased among EfW incinerators in the UK. We conclude that one of the major difficulties encountered by waste facilities is the appropriate selection of technology, capacity, site, waste suppliers and heat consumers. This study will be of particular value to EfW plant developers, government authorities and researchers working within the sector of waste management. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Ash control methods to limit biomass inorganic content and its effect on fast pyrolysis bio-oil stability

This research investigates specific ash control methods to limit inorganic content within biomass prior to fast pyrolysis and effect of specific ash components on fast pyrolysis processing, mass balance yields and bio-oil quality and stability. Inorganic content in miscanthus was naturally reduced over the winter period from June (7.36 wt. %) to February (2.80 wt. %) due to a combination of senescence and natural leaching from rain water. September harvest produced similar mass balance yields, bio-oil quality and stability compared to February harvest (conventional harvest), but nitrogen content in above ground crop was to high (208 kg ha.-1) to maintain sustainable crop production. Deionised water, 1.00% HCl and 0.10% Triton X-100 washes were used to reduce inorganic content of miscanthus. Miscanthus washed with 0.10% Triton X-100 resulted in the highest total liquid yield (76.21 wt. %) and lowest char and reaction water yields (9.77 wt. % and 8.25 wt. % respectively). Concentrations of Triton X-100 were varied to study further effects on mass balance yields and bio-oil stability. All concentrations of Triton X-100 increased total liquid yield and decreased char and reaction water yields compared to untreated miscanthus. In terms of bio-oil stability 1.00% Triton X-100 produced the most stable bio-oil with lowest viscosity index (2.43) and lowest water content index (1.01). Beech wood was impregnated with potassium and phosphorus resulting in lower liquid yields and increased char and gas yields due to their catalytic effect on fast pyrolysis product distribution. Increased potassium and phosphorus concentrations produced less stable bio-oils with viscosity and water content indexes increasing. Fast pyrolysis processing of phosphorus impregnated beech wood was problematic as the reactor bed material agglomerated into large clumps due to char formation within the reactor, affecting fluidisation and heat transfer.

Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

The predictive accuracy of competing crude-oil price forecast densities is investigated for the 1994–2006 period. Moving beyond standard ARCH type models that rely exclusively on past returns, we examine the benefits of utilizing the forward-looking information that is embedded in the prices of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well as for regions and intervals that are of special interest for the economic agent. We find that non-parametric adjustments of risk-neutral density forecasts perform significantly better than their parametric counterparts. Goodness-of-fit tests and out-of-sample likelihood comparisons favor forecast densities obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:727–754, 2011

Comparison of cost- and energy-efficient signal modulations for next generation passive optical networks

Extensive numerical investigations are undertaken to analyze and compare, for the first time, the performance, techno-economy, and power consumption of three-level electrical Duobinary, optical Duobinary, and PAM-4 modulation formats as candidates for high-speed next-generation PONs supporting downstream 40 Gb/s per wavelength signal transmission over standard SMFs in C-band. Optimization of transceiver bandwidths are undertaken to show the feasibility of utilizing low-cost and band-limited components to support next-generation PON transmissions. The effect of electro-absorption modulator chirp is examined for electrical Duobinary and PAM-4. Electrical Duobinary and optical Duobinary are powerefficient schemes for smaller transmission distances of 10 km SMFs and optical Duobinary offers the best receiver sensitivity albeit with a relatively high transceiver cost. PAM-4 shows the best power budget and costefficiency for larger distances of around 20 km, although it consumes more power. Electrical Duobinary shows the best trade-off between performance, cost and power dissipation.

A case study of the assignment of withdrawal codes for reporting dropout in two disciplinary alternative schools

Dropout rates are major issues facing any nation's continued economic and social progress. The seriousness of this issue in the United States is evidenced by the recent legislation of the 2001 No Child Left Behind Act. The purpose of this study was to use the richness of qualitative methodology to analyze inaccuracies in the assignment of withdrawal codes by school administrators in two different disciplinary alternative schools. The primary codes examined were Code 05, any students over the age of 16 who leaves school voluntarily with no intention of returning; Code 15, any PK–12 student who is withdrawn from school due to nonattendance; Code 22, whereabouts unknown; Code 23, no other code can be used to identify the student's reason for leaving school, and Code 26, entering an adult program. ^ The cross-case method was used for this study. The participants were comprised of 19 school personnel and 25 students from two disciplinary alternative schools, designated X and Y, in the Miami-Dade County Public School system, Miami, FL. Data collection procedures included semi-structured interview, observations, field notes, and district documents. With a matrix, these data were analyzed to compare patterns and themes that emerged within both schools. ^ Results indicated that withdrawal codes were assigned inaccurately for two distinct reasons. At School Y, withdrawal codes were inaccurately assigned intentionally to keep the students from returning to a regular school without notification. At School X, withdrawal codes were inaccurately assigned due to lack of ability to properly track students and ascertain the real circumstances for their departure from school. The end result in both cases was that the school systems were not accurately identifying the whereabouts of students. It was recommended that further investigation be conducted to compare the accuracy of reporting dropouts among traditional/regular high schools and disciplinary alternative schools. ^

The men behind the market: Merchants, the Atlantic slave trade, and the shaping of South Carolina plantation society, 1700–1756

The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the role played by merchants in the shaping of South Carolina plantation society in its early stages of development. In 1700 South Carolina was on the fringes of the British Empire. By mid-century the colony had become an integral part of the British Atlantic system. This dissertation addresses merchants' activity in the shaping of plantation society through their involvement in the Atlantic slave trade. Records of the British and South Carolina governments, and petitions from merchants on both sides of the Atlantic have been extremely valuable in understanding the complex and rapidly changing political affiliations of merchants on both sides of the Atlantic. These sources are valuable to this study since they illustrate the merchants' strategy of utilizing government policies to acquire the absolute best terms of trade. Records such as wills and inventories yielded valuable information on merchants' economic portfolios and provided valuable insight into their personal lives. The data shows that the integration of Colonial South Carolina into the global economy can be attributed to its merchant class, who actively sought out business opportunities in the global economy while working within the framework of British mercantilism.

The socialization of adjunct faculty into the academic culture of a public community college campus

This study investigated the socialization of adjunct faculty into the academic culture of a community college campus. Because of the increased utilization of adjunct faculty, the need to socialize them to effectively function within the organizational culture has become more acute. A review of the literature revealed that when employees are socialized, they are more committed to the goals and welfare of the organization, are less likely to leave the organization, and are more productive and innovative. Therefore, it is important that administrators have programs and practices in place that would help to integrate adjunct faculty into the academic culture. The model of organizational socialization (Chao, O'Leary-Kelly, Wolf, Klein, & Gardner, 1994) formed the framework for this study, which was guided by the following research questions: How do adjunct faculty members describe their socialization into the culture of their college campus? How do administrators describe their roles and that of the organization in the socialization of adjunct faculty members? What organizational programs and activities are in place for the socialization of adjunct faculty? The North Campus of Miami Dade College was the site for this study, as it is a campus with a long history of utilizing adjunct faculty members and one that has a clearly-stated mission of adjunct faculty socialization. A qualitative case study method was used, and data collection included interviews and the review and analysis of institutional documents. The participants included 11 adjunct faculty members, 4 department chairpersons, the campus president, and the college training and development coordinator. The study revealed that there were structured and consistent professional development programs, but these conflicted with the schedules of adjunct faculty. Overall, adjunct faculty found support from the leadership; however, they revealed a need for more mentoring, more interactions with full-time faculty, and more input in decision making concerning textbooks and curricula. Implications and recommendations for practice include making professional development more accessible and relevant to adjunct faculty, developing a formal mentoring program where full-time faculty and veteran adjunct faculty mentor novice adjunct faculty, and involving adjuncts in decisions regarding curriculum and textbook selection.

The effect of osteoporosis education on calcium intake and physical activity in a group of community-dwelling Black older adults

The unprecedented increase in the number of older adults is expected to increase the burden of osteoporosis on the individual and society. Blacks have been understudied in osteoporosis prevention education research. Although the risk of osteoporosis is low in this population, its consequences are significant. This study employs a two-group experimental design (experimental and wait-list control groups) to evaluate the effect of an osteoporosis education on two osteoporosis prevention behaviors (OPBs)—calcium intake (CI) and physical activity (PA), in a group of community-dwelling Black older adults, 50 years and older resident in South Florida. A final sample of 110 (mean age 70.15 years), 90% female and 10% male completed a battery of questionnaires at two assessment periods. The experimental group participated in six weekly education program sessions immediately following baseline assessment, and the wait-list control group received the education following end of program assessment by all participants. The weekly educational sessions were conducted in social settings (church or senior center) employing constructs of the Revised Health Belief Model. The sessions focused on improving CI; osteoporosis knowledge (OKT), self-efficacy (SE), health beliefs (HB) and PA. Findings revealed significantly greater increase in reported CI ( M = 556 mg, Wilks’ λ = .47, F (1,108)=122.97, p< .001, η2=.53), OKT (p< .001), and SE (p< .001) among participants in the experimental compared to the wait-list control group. There was no significant difference between the two groups for PA and most of the HB subscales. OKT and SE were the best predictors of CI, while perceived barrier was a predominant factor predicting PA. Over the study period, a change in SE was the only variable related to changes in both OPBs. Attrition rate was lower than expected, which can be attributed to the settings utilized for the study. These findings support the importance of utilizing a familiar social setting. These results suggested the effectiveness of a program offered in multiple short sessions among this underserved minority population to improve OKT and SE resulting in a change in OPBs (increase in CI). However, there is need to explore alternative strategies to improve PA in this population group.

Towards the prediction of mutations in genomic sequences

Bio-systems are inherently complex information processing systems. Furthermore, physiological complexities of biological systems limit the formation of a hypothesis in terms of behavior and the ability to test hypothesis. More importantly the identification and classification of mutation in patients are centric topics in today's cancer research. Next generation sequencing (NGS) technologies can provide genome-wide coverage at a single nucleotide resolution and at reasonable speed and cost. The unprecedented molecular characterization provided by NGS offers the potential for an individualized approach to treatment. These advances in cancer genomics have enabled scientists to interrogate cancer-specific genomic variants and compare them with the normal variants in the same patient. Analysis of this data provides a catalog of somatic variants, present in tumor genome but not in the normal tissue DNA. In this dissertation, we present a new computational framework to the problem of predicting the number of mutations on a chromosome for a certain patient, which is a fundamental problem in clinical and research fields. We begin this dissertation with the development of a framework system that is capable of utilizing published data from a longitudinal study of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML), who's DNA from both normal as well as malignant tissues was subjected to NGS analysis at various points in time. By processing the sequencing data at the time of cancer diagnosis using the components of our framework, we tested it by predicting the genomic regions to be mutated at the time of relapse and, later, by comparing our results with the actual regions that showed mutations (discovered at relapse time). We demonstrate that this coupling of the algorithm pipeline can drastically improve the predictive abilities of searching a reliable molecular signature. Arguably, the most important result of our research is its superior performance to other methods like Radial Basis Function Network, Sequential Minimal Optimization, and Gaussian Process. In the final part of this dissertation, we present a detailed significance, stability and statistical analysis of our model. A performance comparison of the results are presented. This work clearly lays a good foundation for future research for other types of cancer.^

The Effect of Osteoporosis Education on Calcium Intake and Physical Activity in a Group of Community-Dwelling Black Older Adults

The unprecedented increase in the number of older adults is expected to increase the burden of osteoporosis on the individual and society. Blacks have been understudied in osteoporosis prevention education research. Although the risk of osteoporosis is low in this population, its consequences are significant. This study employs a two-group experimental design (experimental and wait-list control groups) to evaluate the effect of an osteoporosis education on two osteoporosis prevention behaviors (OPBs) – calcium intake (CI) and physical activity (PA), in a group of community-dwelling Black older adults, 50 years and older resident in South Florida. A final sample of 110 (mean age 70.15 years), 90% female and 10% male completed a battery of questionnaires at two assessment periods. The experimental group participated in six weekly education program sessions immediately following baseline assessment, and the wait-list control group received the education following end of program assessment by all participants. The weekly educational sessions were conducted in social settings (church or senior center) employing constructs of the Revised Health Belief Model. The sessions focused on improving CI; osteoporosis knowledge (OKT), self-efficacy (SE), health beliefs (HB) and PA. Findings revealed significantly greater increase in reported CI (M = 556 mg, Wilks’ λ = .47, F(1,108)=122.97, p< .001, η2=.53), OKT (p< .001), and SE (p< .001) among participants in the experimental compared to the wait-list control group. There was no significant difference between the two groups for PA and most of the HB subscales. OKT and SE were the best predictors of CI, while perceived barrier was a predominant factor predicting PA. Over the study period, a change in SE was the only variable related to changes in both OPBs. Attrition rate was lower than expected, which can be attributed to the settings utilized for the study. These findings support the importance of utilizing a familiar social setting. These results suggested the effectiveness of a program offered in multiple short sessions among this underserved minority population to improve OKT and SE resulting in a change in OPBs (increase in CI). However, there is need to explore alternative strategies to improve PA in this population group.

Paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic evolution of the Aegean Sea since the last interglacial (~130 ka BP) with special emphasis on sapropel formation

Five long piston cores collected from different subbasins of the Aegean Sea constitute the primary source of data for this PhD thesis. This study is the first to document a continuous paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic record of the Aegean Sea since the last interglacial. The chronostratigraphic reconstructions of the cored sediments based on organic carbon contents, stratigraphic position of known ash layers and oxygen isotopic curve matching collectively demonstrate the presence of sapropel S1 and MISS sapropels S3, S4 and S5 in the Aegean Sea subbasins. Generally, the organic carbon (TOC wt%) contents in sapropels range between 0.8% and 2% with highest concentrations of 9-13% in sapropels S4 and S5. Average sedimentation rates range between 4.7 and 11.8 cmlka with highest rates being observed in Euboea and North Ikaria basins (9.8 and 11.8 cm lka, respectively). The timing of the onset of sapropels S4 and S5 mostly predate those in the eastern Mediterranean with ages ranging from 106.4-105.6 and 128.6-128.4 ka BP, respectively. On the other hand, the initiation of the onset of sapropel S3 (i.e., 83.2-80.4 ka BP) seems to agree with its Mediterranean counterparts, which highlights the heterogeneity of the Aegean Sea subbasins in terms of rapid vs. lagged response to changing climatic conditions. The sapropel initiations appear to be synchronous across the Aegean Sea; whereas, the terminations display a wider temporal variability implying that the cessation of sapropels is controlled both by the amplitude of paleoclimatic changes and the physiography/location ofthe subbasins. Quantitative variations in the planktonic faunal assemblages exhibit a sequence of bioevents during the last -130,000 years which allow identification of four major biozones. The distributional patterns of the most significant taxa demonstrate similar trends among all core localities suggesting that the major changes in the planktonic foraminifera assemblages have taken place rather synchronously in the Aegean Sea. Sapropels S3, S4 and S5 were deposited under similar hydrographic conditions during which a distinct deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) layer was established. This situation points to a stratified water column and increased export productivity during times of sapropel formation. On the other hand, the faunal contrast between Sl and older sapropels indicates that the former was developed in the absence of a DCM layer, lacking a deep phytoplankton assemblage. Under such conditions, oxygen advection via intermediate water flow must have been significantly reduced which implies significant stagnation. Sapropels are interpreted to have been deposited under normal marine conditions with temporary establishment of semi-euxinic bottom water conditions. Both marine and terrestrial organic matter contributed equally to MISS sapropels. In addition, organic carbon isotopic values across sapropels are more depleted than those in the eastern Mediterranean which, in tum, suggests enhanced riverine input during their deposition. Primary productivity calculations show that, particularly for sapropels with very high TOC values, both preservation and increased productivity are imperative in order to deposit sapropels with very high organic carbon contents (i.e., up to 13%).