World population growth and fertility patterns, 1960-2000. A simple model explaining the evolution of world's fertility during the second half of the 20th Century

In this paper we attempt to describe the general reasons behind the world populationexplosion in the 20th century. The size of the population at the end of the century inquestion, deemed excessive by some, was a consequence of a dramatic improvementin life expectancies, attributable, in turn, to scientific innovation, the circulation ofinformation and economic growth. Nevertheless, fertility is a variable that plays acrucial role in differences in demographic growth. We identify infant mortality, femaleeducation levels and racial identity as important exogenous variables affecting fertility.It is estimated that in poor countries one additional year of primary schooling forwomen leads to 0.614 child less per couple on average (worldwide). While it may bepossible to identify a global tendency towards convergence in demographic trends,particular attention should be paid to the case of Africa, not only due to its differentdemographic patterns, but also because much of the continent's population has yet toexperience improvement in quality of life generally enjoyed across the rest of theplanet.

Molecular epidemiology and evolution of HIV-1 in Portugal and portuguese speaking african countries

The aims of this thesis were to better characterize HIV-1 diversity in Portugal, Angola, Mozambique and Cape Verde and to investigate the origin and epidemiological history of HIV-1 in these countries. The impact of these issues in diagnosis, disease progression and susceptibility to ARV therapy was also investigated. Finally, the nature, dynamics and prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) was determined in untreated HIV-1 infected patients. In Angola, practically all HIV-1 genetic forms were found, including almost all subtypes, untypable (U) strains, CRFs and URFs. Recombinants (first and second generation) were present in 47.1% of the patients. HIV/AIDS epidemic in Angola probably started in 1961, the major cause being the independence war, subsequently spreading to Portugal. In Maputo, 81% of the patients were infected with subtype C viruses. Subtype G, U and recombinants such as CRF37_cpx, were also present. The results suggest that HIV-1 epidemic in Mozambique is evolving rapidly in genetic complexity. In Cape Verde, where HIV-1 and HIV-2 co-circulate, subtype G is the prevailed subtype. Subtypes B, C, F1, U, CRF02_AG and other recombinant strains were also found. HIV-2 isolates belonged to group A, some being closely related to the original ROD isolate. In all three countries numerous new polymorphisms were identified in the RT and PR of HIV-1 viruses. Mutations conferring resistance to the NRTIs or NNRTIs were found in isolates from 2 (2%) patients from Angola, 4 (6%) from Mozambique and 3 (12%) from Cape Verde. None of the isolates containing TDR mutations would be fully sensitive to the standard first-line therapeutic regimens used in these countries. Close surveillance in treated and untreated populations will be crucial to prevent further transmission of drug resistant strains and maximize the efficacy of ARV therapy. In Portugal, investigation of a seronegative case infection with rapid progression to AIDS and death revealed that the patient was infected with a CRF14_BG-like R5-tropic strain selectively transmitted by his seropositive sexual partner. The results suggest a massive infection with a highly aggressive CRF14_BG like strain and/or the presence of an unidentified immunological problem that prevented the formation of HIV-1-specific antibodies. Near full-length genomic sequences obtained from three unrelated patients enabled the first molecular and phylogenomic characterization of CRF14_BG from Portugal; all sequences were strongly related with CRF14_BG Spanish isolates. The mean date of origin of CRF14_BG was estimated to be 1992. We propose that CRF14_BG emerged in Portugal in the early 1990s, spread to Spain in late 1990s as a consequence of IDUs migration and then to the rest of Europe. Most CRF14_BG strains were predicted to use CXCR4 and were associated with rapid CD4 depletion and disease progression. Finally, we provide evidence suggesting that the X4 tropism of CRF14_BG may have resulted from convergent evolution of the V3 loop possibly driven by an effective escape from neutralizing antibody response.

Stochastic evolution of rules for playing normal form games

The evolution of boundedly rational rules for playing normal form games is studied within stationary environments ofstochastically changing games. Rules are viewed as algorithms prescribing strategies for the different normal formgames that arise. It is shown that many of the folk results of evolutionary game theory typically obtained witha fixed game and fixed strategies carry over to the present case. The results are also related to recent experimentson rules and games.

The evolution of inequity in the access to health care in Spain: 1987-2001

This paper reports an analysis of the evolution of equity in access to health care in Spain over the period 1987-2001, a time span covering the development of the modern Spanish National Health System. Our measures of access are the probabilities of visiting a doctor, using emergency services and being hospitalised. For these three measures we obtain indices of horizontal inequity from microeconometric models of utilization that exploit the individual information in the Spanish National Health Surveys of 1987 and 2001. We find that by 2001 the system has improved in the sense that differences in income no longer lead to different access given the same level of need. However, the tenure of private health insurance leads to differences in access given the same level of need, and its contribution to inequity has increased over time, both because insurance is more concentrated among the rich and because the elasticity of utilization for the three services has increased too.

The evolution of helping and harming on graphs: the return of the inclusive fitness effect.

Evolutionary graph theory has been proposed as providing new fundamental rules for the evolution of co-operation and altruism. But how do these results relate to those of inclusive fitness theory? Here, we carry out a retrospective analysis of the models for the evolution of helping on graphs of Ohtsuki et al. [Nature (2006) 441, 502] and Ohtsuki & Nowak [Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B Biol. Sci (2006) 273, 2249]. We show that it is possible to translate evolutionary graph theory models into classical kin selection models without disturbing at all the mathematics describing the net effect of selection on helping. Model analysis further demonstrates that costly helping evolves on graphs through limited dispersal and overlapping generations. These two factors are well known to promote relatedness between interacting individuals in spatially structured populations. By allowing more than one individual to live at each node of the graph and by allowing interactions to vary with the distance between nodes, our inclusive fitness model allows us to consider a wider range of biological scenarios leading to the evolution of both helping and harming behaviours on graphs.

The evolution of gene expression levels in mammalian organs.

Changes in gene expression are thought to underlie many of the phenotypic differences between species. However, large-scale analyses of gene expression evolution were until recently prevented by technological limitations. Here we report the sequencing of polyadenylated RNA from six organs across ten species that represent all major mammalian lineages (placentals, marsupials and monotremes) and birds (the evolutionary outgroup), with the goal of understanding the dynamics of mammalian transcriptome evolution. We show that the rate of gene expression evolution varies among organs, lineages and chromosomes, owing to differences in selective pressures: transcriptome change was slow in nervous tissues and rapid in testes, slower in rodents than in apes and monotremes, and rapid for the X chromosome right after its formation. Although gene expression evolution in mammals was strongly shaped by purifying selection, we identify numerous potentially selectively driven expression switches, which occurred at different rates across lineages and tissues and which probably contributed to the specific organ biology of various mammals.

Independent evolution of hypervariable regions of HIV-1 gp120: V4 as a swarm of N-Linked glycosylation variants

In this study we have characterized intra-patient length polymorphism in V4 by cloning and sequencing a C2-C4 fragment from HIV plasma RNA in patients at different stages of HIV disease. Clonal analysis of clade B, G, and CRF02 isolates during early infection shows extensive intra-patient V4 variability, due to the presence of indel-associated polymorphism. Indels, coupled to amino acid substitution events, affect the number and distribution of potential N-glycosylation sites, resulting in the coexistence, within the same patient, of V4 subsets, each characterized by different sizes, amino acid sequences, and potential N-glycosylation patterns. In contrast, V3 appears to be relatively homogeneous, with similar V3 associated to significantly different V4 within the same clinical specimen. Based on these data, we propose that during early chronic infection V4 is present as a highly divergent quasispecies, enabling the virus to adopt different conformational structures according to immune constrains and other selective pressures

The evolution of punishment through reputation.

Punishment of non-cooperators has been observed to promote cooperation. Such punishment is an evolutionary puzzle because it is costly to the punisher while beneficial to others, for example, through increased social cohesion. Recent studies have concluded that punishing strategies usually pay less than some non-punishing strategies. These findings suggest that punishment could not have directly evolved to promote cooperation. However, while it is well established that reputation plays a key role in human cooperation, the simple threat from a reputation of being a punisher may not have been sufficiently explored yet in order to explain the evolution of costly punishment. Here, we first show analytically that punishment can lead to long-term benefits if it influences one's reputation and thereby makes the punisher more likely to receive help in future interactions. Then, in computer simulations, we incorporate up to 40 more complex strategies that use different kinds of reputations (e.g. from generous actions), or strategies that not only include punitive behaviours directed towards defectors but also towards cooperators for example. Our findings demonstrate that punishment can directly evolve through a simple reputation system. We conclude that reputation is crucial for the evolution of punishment by making a punisher more likely to receive help in future interactions, and that experiments investigating the beneficial effects of punishment in humans should include reputation as an explicit feature.

Molecular evolution of the Drosophila olfactory system

The olfactory system is an attractive model to study the genetic mechanisms underlying evolution of the nervous system. This sensory system mediates the detection and behavioural responses to an enormous diversity of volatile chemicals in the environment and displays rapid evolution, as species acquire, modify and discard olfactory receptors and circuits to adapt to new olfactory stimuli. Drosophilids provide an attractive model to study these processes. The availability of 12 sequenced genomes of Drosophila species occupying diverse ecological niches provides a rich resource for genomic analyses. Moreover, one of these species, Drosophila melanogaster, is amenable to a powerful combination of genetic and electrophysiological analyses. D. melanogaster has two distinct families of olfactory receptors to detect odours, the well-characterised Odorant Receptors (ORs) and the recently identified lonotropic Receptors (IRs). In my thesis, I have provided new insights into the genetic mechanisms underlying olfactory system evolution through three distinct, but interrelated projects. First, I performed a comparative genomic analysis of the IR repertoire in 12 sequenced Drosophila species, which has revealed that the olfactory IRs are highly conserved across species. By contrast, a large fraction of IRs that are not expressed in the olfactory system - and which may be gustatory receptors - are much more variable in sequence and gene copy number. Second, to identify ligands for IR expressing olfactory sensory neurons, I have performed an electrophysiological screen in D. melanogaster using a panel of over 160 odours. I found that the IRs respond to a number of amines, aldehydes and acids, contrasting with the chemical specificity of the OR repertoire, which is mainly tuned to esters, alcohols and ketones. Finally, the identification of ligands for IRs in this species allowed me to investigate in detail the molecular and functional evolution of a tandem array of IRs, IR75a/IR75b/IR75c, in D. sechellia. This species is endemic to the Seychelles archipelago and highly specialised to breed on the fruits of Morinda citrifolia, which is repulsive and toxic for other Drosophila species. These studies led me to discover that receptor loss, changes in receptor specificity and changes in receptor expression have likely played an important role during the evolution of these IRs in D. sechellia. These changes may explain, in part, the unique chemical ecology of this species. - Le système olfactif est un excellent modèle pour étudier les mécanismes génétiques impliqués dans l'étude de l'évolution du système nerveux. Ce système sensoriel permet la détection de nombreux composés volatils présents dans l'environnement et est à la base des réponses comportementales. Il est propre à chaque espèce et évolue rapidement en modifiant ou en éliminant des récepteurs et leurs circuits olfactifs correspondants pour s'adapter à de nouvelles odeurs. Pour étudier le système olfactif et son évolution, nous avons décidé d'utiliser la drosophile comme modèle. Le séquençage complet de 12 souches de drosophiles habitant différentes niches écologiques permet une analyse génomique conséquente. De plus, l'une de ces espèces Drosophila melanogaster permet la combinaison d'analyses génétiques et électrophysiologiques. En effet, D. melanogaster possède 2 familles distinctes de récepteurs olfactifs qui permettent la détection d'odeurs: les récepteurs olfactifs (ORs) étant les mieux caractérisés et les récepteurs ionotropiques (IRs), plus récemment identifiés. Au cours de ma thèse, j'ai apporté des nouvelles connaissances qui m'ont permis de mieux comprendre les mécanismes génétiques à la base de l'évolution du système olfactif au travers de trois projets différents, mais interdépendants. Premièrement, j'ai réalisé une analyse génomique comparative de l'ensemble des IRs dans les 12 souches de drosophiles séquencées jusqu'à présent. Ceci a montré que les récepteurs olfactifs IRs sont hautement conservés parmi l'ensemble de ces espèces. Au contraire, une grande partie des IRs qui ne sont pas exprimés dans le système olfactif, et qui semblent être des récepteurs gustatifs, sont beaucoup plus variables dans leur séquence et dans le nombre de copie de gènes. Deuxièmement, pour identifier les ligands des récepteurs IRs exprimés par les neurones sensoriels olfactifs, j'ai réalisé une étude électrophysiologique chez D. melanogaster e η testant l'effet de plus de 160 composés chimiques sur les IRs. J'ai trouvé que les IRs répondent à un nombre d'amines, d'aldéhydes et d'acides, contrairement aux récepteurs olfactifs ORs qui eux répondent principalement aux esthers, alcools et cétones. Finalement, l'identification de ligands pour les IRs dans ces espèces m'a permis d'étudier en détail l'évolution fonctionnelle et moléculaire des IR75a/IR75b/IR75c dans D. sechellia. Cette espèce est endémique de l'archipel des Seychelles et se nourrit spécifiquement du fruit Morinda citrifolia qui est répulsif et toxique pour d'autres souches de drosophiles. Ces études m'ont poussé à découvrir que, la perte de IR75a, le changement dans la spécificité de IR75b ainsi que le changement dans l'expression de IR75c ont probablement joué un rôle important dans l'évolution des IRs chez D. sechellia. Ces changements peuvent expliquer, en partie, l'écologie chimique propre à cette espèce. Résumé français large public Le système olfactif permet aux animaux de détecter des milliers de molécules odorantes, les aidant ainsi à trouver de la nourriture, à distinguer si elle est fraîche ou avariée, à trouver des partenaires sexuels, ainsi qu'à éviter les prédateurs. Selon l'environnement et le mode de vie des espèces, le système olfactif doit détecter des odeurs très diverses ; en effet, un moustique qui recherche du sang humain pour se nourrir doit détecter des odeurs bien différentes d'une abeille qui recherche des fleurs. Dans ma thèse, j'ai essayé de comprendre comment les systèmes olfactifs d'une espèce évoluent pour s'adapter aux exigences induites par son environnement. Un très bon modèle pour étudier cela est la drosophile dont les différentes espèces se nichent dans des habitats très divers. Pour ce faire, j'ai étudié les récepteurs olfactifs de différentes espèces de la drosophile. Ces récepteurs sont des protéines qui se lient à des odeurs spécifiques. Lorsqu'ils se lient, ils activent un neurone qui envoie un signal électrique au cerveau. Ce signal est ensuite traité par ce dernier qui indique à la mouche si l'odeur est attractive ou répulsive. J'ai identifié les récepteurs olfactifs de plusieurs espèces de drosophile et étudié s'il y avait des différences entre elles. La plupart des récepteurs sont similaires entre les espèces, cependant dans l'une d'entre elles, certains récepteurs sont différents. Ce fait est particulièrement intéressant car cette espèce de drosophile se nourrit de fruits que les autres espèces n'apprécient pas. Comme nous ne savons pas quels récepteurs se lient à quelles odeurs, j'ai testé un grand nombre de composants odorants. Ceci m'a permis de constater que, effectivement, certains changements produits dans ces récepteurs expliquent pourquoi cette espèce aime particulièrement ces fruits. En outre, mes résultats contribuent à mieux comprendre les changements génétiques qui sont impliqués dans l'évolution du système olfactif.

Thrusting, extension, and doming during the polyphase tectonometamorphic evolution of the High Himalayan Crystalline Zone in NW India

In the NW Himalaya of India, high-grade metamorphic rocks of the High Himalayan Crystalline Zone (HHCZ) are exposed as a 50 km large dome along the Miyar and Gianbul valleys. This Gianbul dome is cored by migmatitic paragneiss formed at peak conditions around 750 degreesC and 8 kbar, and symmetrically surrounded by sillimanite, kyanite +/- staurolite, garnet, biotite, and chlorite Barrovian mineral zones. Thermobarometric and structural investigations reveal that the Gianbul dome results from a polyphase tectono-metamorphic evolution. The first phase corresponds to the NE-directed thrusting of the Shikar Beh nappe, that is responsible for the Barrovian prograde metamorphic field gradient in the southern limb of the dome. In the northern limb of the dome, the Barrovian prograde metamorphism is the consequence of a second tectonic phase, associated with the SW-directed thrusting of the Nyimaling-Tsarap nappe. Following these crustal thickening events, exhumation and doming of the HHCZ high-grade rocks were controlled by extension along the north-dipping Zanskar Shear Zone, in the frontal part of the Nyimaling-Tsarap nappe, as well as by coeval to late extension along the south-dipping Khanjar Shear Zone, in the southern limb of the Gianbul dome. Rapid syn-convergence extension along both of these detachments induced a nearly isothermal decompression, resulting in a high-temperature/low-pressure metamorphic overprint, as well as enhanced partial melting. Such a rapid exhumation within a compressional orogenic context appears unlikely to be controlled solely by granitic diapirism. Alternatively, large-scale doming in the Himalaya could reflect a sub-vertical ductile extrusion of partially melted rocks.

The Palaeozoic metamorphic evolution of the Alpine External Massifs

The pre-Mesozoic metamorphic pattern of the External Massifs, composed of subunits of different metamorphic histories, resulted from the telescoping of Variscan, Ordovician and older metamorphic and structural textures and formations. During an early period, the future External Massifs were part of a peri-Gondwanian microplate evolving as an active margin. Precambrian to lower Palaeozoic igneous and sedimentary protoliths were reworked during an Ordovician subduction cycle (eclogites, granulites) preceding Ordovician anatexis and intrusion of Ordovician granitoids. Little is known about the time period when the microcontinent containing the future External Massifs followed a migration path leading to collision with Laurussia. Corresponding rock-series have not been identified. This might be because they have been eroded or transformed by migmatisation or because they remain hidden in the monocyclic areas. Besides the transformations which originated during the Ordovician subduction cycle, strong metamorphic transformations resulted from Variscan collision when many areas underwent amphibolite facies transformations and migmatisation. The different subunits composing the External Massifs and their corresponding P-T evolution are the expression of different levels in a nappe pile, which may have formed before Visean erosion and cooling. The presence of durbachitic magmatic rocks may be the expression of a large scale Early Variscan upwelling line which formed after Variscan lithospheric subduction. Late Variscan wrench fault tectonics and crustal thinning accompanied by high thermal gradients triggered several pulses of granite intrusions.