Estimating the value of victory:English football

Professional English football combines publicly traded ownership shares with an active and observable wagering market. This article utilizes the information from these markets, presenting a model that may be used to estimate the impact of matches on club values. Such information is potentially useful as clubs assess the values of players and coaches based on their anticipated contributions to team performance. The article also illustrates the modelling of ‘binomial events,’ such as win/lose, hire/do not hire or approval/disapproval, and how market-determined price responses illuminate expectations.

CEO compensation, option incentives and information disclosure

This paper examines the impact of information disclosure on the valuation of CEO options and the incentives created by those options. Prior executive compensation research in the US has made assumptions about key input variables that can affect the calculation of option values and financial incentives. Accordingly, biases may have ensued due to incomplete information disclosure about noncurrent option grants. Using new data on a sample of UK CEOs, we value executive option holdings and incentives for the first time and estimate the levels of distortion created by the less than complete US-style disclosure requirements. We also investigate the levels of distortion in the UK for the minority of companies that choose to reveal only partial information. Our results suggest that there have to date been few economic biases arising from less than complete information disclosure. Furthermore, we demonstrate that researchers using US data, who made reasonable assumptions about the inputs of noncurrent option grants, are unlikely to have made significant errors when calculating CEO financial incentives or option wealth. However, the recent downturn in the US stock market could result in the same assumptions, producing exaggerated incentive estimates in the future.

Visual data mining: integrating machine learning with information visualization

Today, the data available to tackle many scientific challenges is vast in quantity and diverse in nature. The exploration of heterogeneous information spaces requires suitable mining algorithms as well as effective visual interfaces. Most existing systems concentrate either on mining algorithms or on visualization techniques. Though visual methods developed in information visualization have been helpful, for improved understanding of a complex large high-dimensional dataset, there is a need for an effective projection of such a dataset onto a lower-dimension (2D or 3D) manifold. This paper introduces a flexible visual data mining framework which combines advanced projection algorithms developed in the machine learning domain and visual techniques developed in the information visualization domain. The framework follows Shneiderman’s mantra to provide an effective user interface. The advantage of such an interface is that the user is directly involved in the data mining process. We integrate principled projection methods, such as Generative Topographic Mapping (GTM) and Hierarchical GTM (HGTM), with powerful visual techniques, such as magnification factors, directional curvatures, parallel coordinates, billboarding, and user interaction facilities, to provide an integrated visual data mining framework. Results on a real life high-dimensional dataset from the chemoinformatics domain are also reported and discussed. Projection results of GTM are analytically compared with the projection results from other traditional projection methods, and it is also shown that the HGTM algorithm provides additional value for large datasets. The computational complexity of these algorithms is discussed to demonstrate their suitability for the visual data mining framework.

Information systems design for the community health services

This system is concerned with the design and implementation of a community health information system which fulfils some of the local needs of fourteen nursing and para-medical professions in a district health authority, whilst satisfying the statutory requirements of the NHS Korner steering group for those professions. A national survey of community health computer applications, documented in the form of an applications register, shows the need for such a system. A series of general requirements for an informations systems design methodology are identified, together with specific requirements for this problem situation. A number of existing methodologies are reviewed, but none of these were appropriate for this application. Some existing approaches, tools and techniques are used to define a more suitable methodology. It is unreasonable to rely on one single general methodology for all types of application development. There is a need for pragmatism, adaptation and flexibility. In this research, participation in the development stages by those who will eventually use the system was thought desirable. This was achieved by forming a representative design group. Results would seem to show a highly favourable response from users to this participation which contributed to the overall success of the system implemented. A prototype was developed for the chiropody and school nursing staff groups of Darlington health authority, and evaluations show that a significant number of the problems and objectives of those groups have been successfully addressed; the value of community health information has been increased; and information has been successfully fed back to staff and better utilised.

The evaluation of information systems in the organisational context of the National Health Service. Available in 2 volumes.

This thesis describes a project which has investigated the evaluation of information systems. The work took place in, and is related to, a specific organisational context, that of the National Health Service (NHS). It aims to increase understanding of the evaluation which takes place in the service and the way in which this is affected by the NHS environment. It also investigates the issues which surround some important types of evaluation and their use in this context. The first stage of the project was a postal survey in which respondents were asked to describe the evaluation which took place in their authorities and to give their opinions about it. This was used to give an overview of the practice of IS evaluation in the NHS and to identify its uses and the problems experienced. Three important types of evaluation were then examined in more detail by means of action research studies. One of these dealt with the selection and purchase of a large hospital information system. The study took the form of an evaluation of the procurement process, and examined the methods used and the influence of organisational factors. The other studies are concerned with post-implementation evaluation, and examine the choice of an evaluation approach as well as its application. One was an evaluation of a community health system which had been operational for some time but was of doubtful value, and suffered from a number of problems. The situation was explored by means of a study of the costs and benefits of the system. The remaining study was the initial review of a system which was used in the administration of a Breast Screening Service. The service itself was also newly operational and the relationship between the service and the system was of interest.

Management information:design of a system for change identification

This thesis deals with the problem of Information Systems design for Corporate Management. It shows that the results of applying current approaches to Management Information Systems and Corporate Modelling fully justify a fresh look to the problem. The thesis develops an approach to design based on Cybernetic principles and theories. It looks at Management as an informational process and discusses the relevance of regulation theory to its practice. The work proceeds around the concept of change and its effects on the organization's stability and survival. The idea of looking at organizations as viable systems is discussed and a design to enhance survival capacity is developed. It takes Ashby's theory of adaptation and developments on ultra-stability as a theoretical framework and considering conditions for learning and foresight deduces that a design should include three basic components: A dynamic model of the organization- environment relationships; a method to spot significant changes in the value of the essential variables and in a certain set of parameters; and a Controller able to conceive and change the other two elements and to make choices among alternative policies. Further considerations of the conditions for rapid adaptation in organisms composed of many parts, and the law of Requisite Variety determine that successful adaptive behaviour requires certain functional organization. Beer's model of viable organizations is put in relation to Ashby's theory of adaptation and regulation. The use of the Ultra-stable system as abstract unit of analysis permits developing a rigorous taxonomy of change; it starts distinguishing between change with in behaviour and change of behaviour to complete the classification with organizational change. It relates these changes to the logical categories of learning connecting the topic of Information System design with that of organizational learning.

The value of proprietary health and safety software to proactive health and safety management

There has been little research in health and safety management concernmg the application of information technology to the field. This thesis attempts to stimulate interest in this area by analysing the value of proprietary health and safety software to proactive health and safety management. The thesis is based upon the detailed software evaluation of seven pieces of proprietary health and safety software. It features a discussion concerning the development of information technology and health and safety management, a review of the key issues identified during the software evaluations, an analysis of the commercial market for this type of software, and a consideration of the broader issues which surround the use of this software. It also includes practical guidance for the evaluation, selection, implementation and maintenance of all health and safety management software. This includes a comprehensive software evaluation chart. The implications of the research are considered for proprietary health and safety software, the application of information technology to health and safety management, and for future research.

Simulating the value of collaboration in multi-actor conservation planning

The loss of habitat and biodiversity worldwide has led to considerable resources being spent for conservation purposes on actions such as the acquisition and management of land, the rehabilitation of degraded habitats, and the purchase of easements from private landowners. Prioritising these actions is challenging due to the complexity of the problem and because there can be multiple actors undertaking conservation actions, often with divergent or partially overlapping objectives. We use a modelling framework to explore this issue with a study involving two agents sequentially purchasing land for conservation. We apply our model to simulated data using distributions taken from real data to simulate the cost of patches and the rarity and co-occurence of species. In our model each agent attempted to implement a conservation network that met its target for the minimum cost using the conservation planning software Marxan. We examine three scenarios where the conservation targets of the agents differ. The first scenario (called NGO-NGO) models the situation where two NGOs are both are targeting different sets of threatened species. The second and third scenarios (called NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO, respectively) represent a case where a government agency attempts to implement a complementary conservation network representing all species, while an NGO is focused on achieving additional protection for the most endangered species. For each of these scenarios we examined three types of interactions between agents: i) acting in isolation where the agents are attempting to achieve their targets solely though their own actions ii) sharing information where each agent is aware of the species representation achieved within the other agent’s conservation network and, iii) pooling resources where agents combine their resources and undertake conservation actions as a single entity. The latter two interactions represent different types of collaborations and in each scenario we determine the cost savings from sharing information or pooling resources. In each case we examined the utility of these interactions from the viewpoint of the combined conservation network resulting from both agents' actions, as well as from each agent’s individual perspective. The costs for each agent to achieve their objectives varied depending on the order in which the agents acted, the type of interaction between agents, and the specific goals of each agent. There were significant cost savings from increased collaboration via sharing information in the NGO-NGO scenario were the agent’s representation goals were mutually exclusive (in terms of specie targeted). In the NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO scenarios, collaboration generated much smaller savings. If the two agents collaborate by pooling resources there are multiple ways the total cost could be shared between both agents. For each scenario we investigate the costs and benefits for all possible cost sharing proportions. We find that there are a range of cost sharing proportions where both agents can benefit in the NGO-NGO scenarios while the NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO scenarios again showed little benefit. Although the model presented here has a range of simplifying assumptions, it demonstrates that the value of collaboration can vary significantly in different situations. In most cases, collaborating would have associated costs and these costs need to be weighed against the potential benefits from collaboration. The model demonstrates a method for determining the range of collaboration costs that would result in collaboration providing an efficient use of scarce conservation resources.

Simulating the value of collaboration in multi-actor conservation planning

The loss of habitat and biodiversity worldwide has led to considerable resources being spent on conservation interventions. Prioritising these actions is challenging due to the complexity of the problem and because there can be multiple actors undertaking conservation actions, often with divergent or partially overlapping objectives. We explore this issue with a simulation study involving two agents sequentially purchasing land for the conservation of multiple species using three scenarios comprising either divergent or partially overlapping objectives between the agents. The first scenario investigates the situation where both agents are targeting different sets of threatened species. The second and third scenarios represent a case where a government agency attempts to implement a complementary conservation network representing 200 species, while a non-government organisation is focused on achieving additional protection for the ten rarest species. Simulated input data was generated using distributions taken from real data to model the cost of parcels, and the rarity and co-occurrence of species. We investigated three types of collaborative interactions between agents: acting in isolation, sharing information and pooling resources with the third option resulting in the agents combining their resources and effectively acting as a single entity. In each scenario we determine the cost savings when an agent moves from acting in isolation to either sharing information or pooling resources with the other agent. The model demonstrates how the value of collaboration can vary significantly in different situations. In most cases, collaborating would have associated costs and these costs need to be weighed against the potential benefits from collaboration. Our model demonstrates a method for determining the range of costs that would result in collaboration providing an efficient use of scarce conservation resources.

An information foraging theory based user study of an adaptive user interaction framework for content-based image retrieval

This paper presents the design and results of a task-based user study, based on Information Foraging Theory, on a novel user interaction framework - uInteract - for content-based image retrieval (CBIR). The framework includes a four-factor user interaction model and an interactive interface. The user study involves three focused evaluations, 12 simulated real life search tasks with different complexity levels, 12 comparative systems and 50 subjects. Information Foraging Theory is applied to the user study design and the quantitative data analysis. The systematic findings have not only shown how effective and easy to use the uInteract framework is, but also illustrate the value of Information Foraging Theory for interpreting user interaction with CBIR. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Browsing for information by highlighting automatically generated annotations:a user study and evaluation

The realization of the Semantic Web is constrained by a knowledge acquisition bottleneck, i.e. the problem of how to add RDF mark-up to the millions of ordinary web pages that already exist. Information Extraction (IE) has been proposed as a solution to the annotation bottleneck. In the task based evaluation reported here, we compared the performance of users without access to annotation, users working with annotations which had been produced from manually constructed knowledge bases, and users working with annotations augmented using IE. We looked at retrieval performance, overlap between retrieved items and the two sets of annotations, and usage of annotation options. Automatically generated annotations were found to add value to the browsing experience in the scenario investigated. Copyright 2005 ACM.

The value of magnetoencephalography to guide electrode implantation in epilepsy

To investigate if Magnetoencephalography (MEG) can add non-redundant information to guide implantation sites for intracranial recordings (IR). The contribution of MEG to intracranial recording planning was evaluated in 12 consecutive patients assessed pre-surgically with MEG followed by IR. Primary outcome measures were the identification of focal seizure onset in IR and favorable surgical outcome. Outcome measures were compared to those of 12 patients matched for implantation type in whom non-invasive pre-surgical assessment suggested clear hypotheses for implantation (non-MEG group). In the MEG group, non-invasive assessment without MEG was inconclusive, and MEG was then used to further help identify implantation sites. In all MEG patients, at least one virtual MEG electrode generated suitable hypotheses for the location of implantations. No differences in outcome measures were found between non-MEG and MEG groups. Although the MEG group included more complex patients, it showed similar percentage of successful implantations as the non-MEG group. This suggests that MEG can contribute to identify implantation sites where standard methods failed. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Visual data mining using principled projection algorithms and information visualization techniques

We introduce a flexible visual data mining framework which combines advanced projection algorithms from the machine learning domain and visual techniques developed in the information visualization domain. The advantage of such an interface is that the user is directly involved in the data mining process. We integrate principled projection algorithms, such as generative topographic mapping (GTM) and hierarchical GTM (HGTM), with powerful visual techniques, such as magnification factors, directional curvatures, parallel coordinates and billboarding, to provide a visual data mining framework. Results on a real-life chemoinformatics dataset using GTM are promising and have been analytically compared with the results from the traditional projection methods. It is also shown that the HGTM algorithm provides additional value for large datasets. The computational complexity of these algorithms is discussed to demonstrate their suitability for the visual data mining framework. Copyright 2006 ACM.

GEO Label – quality information interrogation tool for geospatial datasets:towards effective visualization of quality metadata

Although the importance of dataset fitness-for-use evaluation and intercomparison is widely recognised within the GIS community, no practical tools have yet been developed to support such interrogation. GeoViQua aims to develop a GEO label which will visually summarise and allow interrogation of key informational aspects of geospatial datasets upon which users rely when selecting datasets for use. The proposed GEO label will be integrated in the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and will be used as a value and trust indicator for datasets accessible through the GEO Portal. As envisioned, the GEO label will act as a decision support mechanism for dataset selection and thereby hopefully improve user recognition of the quality of datasets. To date we have conducted 3 user studies to (1) identify the informational aspects of geospatial datasets upon which users rely when assessing dataset quality and trustworthiness, (2) elicit initial user views on a GEO label and its potential role and (3), evaluate prototype label visualisations. Our first study revealed that, when evaluating quality of data, users consider 8 facets: dataset producer information; producer comments on dataset quality; dataset compliance with international standards; community advice; dataset ratings; links to dataset citations; expert value judgements; and quantitative quality information. Our second study confirmed the relevance of these facets in terms of the community-perceived function that a GEO label should fulfil: users and producers of geospatial data supported the concept of a GEO label that provides a drill-down interrogation facility covering all 8 informational aspects. Consequently, we developed three prototype label visualisations and evaluated their comparative effectiveness and user preference via a third user study to arrive at a final graphical GEO label representation. When integrated in the GEOSS, an individual GEO label will be provided for each dataset in the GEOSS clearinghouse (or other data portals and clearinghouses) based on its available quality information. Producer and feedback metadata documents are being used to dynamically assess information availability and generate the GEO labels. The producer metadata document can either be a standard ISO compliant metadata record supplied with the dataset, or an extended version of a GeoViQua-derived metadata record, and is used to assess the availability of a producer profile, producer comments, compliance with standards, citations and quantitative quality information. GeoViQua is also currently developing a feedback server to collect and encode (as metadata records) user and producer feedback on datasets; these metadata records will be used to assess the availability of user comments, ratings, expert reviews and user-supplied citations for a dataset. The GEO label will provide drill-down functionality which will allow a user to navigate to a GEO label page offering detailed quality information for its associated dataset. At this stage, we are developing the GEO label service that will be used to provide GEO labels on demand based on supplied metadata records. In this presentation, we will provide a comprehensive overview of the GEO label development process, with specific emphasis on the GEO label implementation and integration into the GEOSS.