Alcohol, tobacco and breast cancer - collaborative reanalysis of individual data from 53 epidemiological studies, including 58 515 women with breast cancer and 95 067 women without the disease

Alcohol and tobacco consumption are closely correlated and published results on their association with breast cancer have not always allowed adequately for confounding between these exposures. Over 80% of the relevant information worldwide on alcohol and tobacco consumption and breast cancer were collated, checked and analysed centrally. Analyses included 58515 women with invasive breast cancer and 95067 controls from 53 studies. Relative risks of breast cancer were estimated, after stratifying by study, age, parity and, where appropriate, women's age when their first child was born and consumption of alcohol and tobacco. The average consumption of alcohol reported by controls from developed countries was 6.0 g per day, i.e. about half a unit/drink of alcohol per day, and was greater in ever-smokers than never-smokers, (8.4 g per day and 5.0 g per day, respectively). Compared with women who reported drinking no alcohol, the relative risk of breast cancer was 1.32 (1.19 - 1.45, P < 0.00001) for an intake of 35 - 44 g per day alcohol, and 1.46 (1.33 - 1.61, P < 0.00001) for greater than or equal to 45 g per day alcohol. The relative risk of breast cancer increased by 7.1% (95% CI 5.5-8.7%; P

Characterisation of multiple Caribbean ciguatoxins and congeners in individual specimens of horse-eye jack (Caranx latus) by high-performance liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry

We studied the variation in toxin profiles of purified extracts of 10 individual specimens and two pools of ciguateric Caranx latus. High-performance liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry (HPLC/MS) identified in all individual samples at least seven Caribbean ciguatoxins (C-CTXs) comprising C-CTX-1 and its epimer C-CTX-2 ([M + H](+) m/z 1141.58), and five new C-CTX congeners with pseudo-molecular ions at m/z 1141.58, 1143.60, 1157.57, 1159.58, and 1127.57. In some samples, additional C-CTX isomers were detected with [M + H](+) ions at m/z 1141.58 (two), 1143.60 (one) and 1157.57 (two). The two low-toxic pools contained only four to six ciguatoxins. The comparison in relative proportions of four different mass classes ([M + H](+) at m/z 1141, 1143, 1157 and 1127) showed that the group at m/z 1157 increased (2-20%) with flesh toxicity. More than 80% of group m/z 1141 comprised C-CTX-1, C-CTX-2 and their isomer C-CTX-1 a whose level in this group correlated with fish toxicity. Contrary to low-toxic fishes, high-risk specimens had C-CTX-1 levels

On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Democracry and the Individual

The main question informing this paper is whether it is possible to extend democracy beyond its liberal forms. The paper reflects upon this question with regard to its implications for the individual. For the radicalization of democracy implies a need for self-transformation, if the everyday egoism of contemporary citizens is not to thwart reasonable discussion and participation. Theorists such as Richard Rorty argue that the philosophical resources required to guide such self-transformation can be made available only by sacrificing the political freedom and cultural diversity liberalism has been able to precariously establish. Other theorists insist that the thresholds of pluralism and tolerance that existing liberal democracies are struggling to maintain actually require an extension of democracy. The paper evaluates two different theoretical strategies that aim to identify potentials for democratization without falling prey to the dilemma identified by Rorty: a ‘ deliberative’ strategy explicated with reference to Jürgen Habermas and an ‘existential’ approach represented here by William Connolly.

Sistema de Avalia????o de Desempenho Individual do Inmetro (Siadi)

O Inmetro desenvolveu e implementou modelo de avalia????o de desempenho individual, instrumento de gest??o capaz de promover nova cultura baseada no m??rito, exig??ncia, motiva????o e reconhecimento. Adota remunera????o vari??vel vinculada ao desempenho, com crit??rios objetivos e regras claras, elaborados a partir de amplo debate com os servidores; a avalia????o ?? realizada por comit??s com maioria dos membros externos ?? institui????o, rompendo com a pr??tica limitada da avalia????o exclusivamente pelas chefias. O ciclo ?? anual e o processo consta basicamente da pactua????o de um plano de trabalho do servidor com sua chefia ao in??cio do ciclo, vinculado ao conjunto de objetivos institucionais. A an??lise, ao final do ciclo, do relat??rio de atividades do servidor e do parecer de sua chefia ?? conduzida pelo Comit?? de Avalia????o. A participa????o dos servidores nos dois primeiros ciclos foi irrestrita, com excelente receptividade, independente dos resultados

Pintura de guerra I: tomada de decis??o individual e organizacional

Maria Cec??lia, divorciada e com dois filhos, ?? servidora p??blica h?? vinte anos e h?? seis trabalha como coordenadora em um projeto da Secretaria de Educa????o do seu Estado. Com a proposta de se transformar em uma pol??tica p??blica e com um or??amento significativo, o projeto passa por um momento de crise, pois os resultados est??o abaixo do esperado. Maria Cec??lia e outros membros da equipe entram em conflito e divergem quanto aos ajustes que devem ser feitos no plano de trabalho. Nesse contexto, todos, incluindo Maria Cec??lia, encontram-se em um momento de tomada de decis??o

Associar o desempenho individual ao planejamento organizacional pela gest??o de compet??ncias: um novo enfoque para a avalia????o de desempenho na administra????o p??blica brasileira

Neste artigo, pretende-se fazer uma abordagem cr??tica da avalia????o de desempenho dirigida aos servidores p??blicos em suas m??ltiplas dimens??es, notadamente a partir da experi??ncia dos Minist??rios da Fazenda e do Planejamento, Or??amento e Gest??o com a implementa????o de sistemas de avalia????o de desempenho individual e institucional vinculados ao pagamento de gratifica????es de desempenho, e ?? tend??ncia ?? generaliza????o desse tipo de vantagem remunerat??ria. Como elemento inovador, recomenda-se analisar a gest??o por compet??ncias associada ?? avalia????o de desempenho, como forma de integrar, de modo mais eficaz e satisfat??rio, o planejamento organizacional ao dia-a-dia da organiza????o e ao desempenho dos servidores. Inicia-se por uma breve descri????o dos sistemas de avalia????o organizacionais que funcionam em conjunto com as avalia????es de desempenho para fins remunerat??rios at?? o momento atual para, em seguida, apresentar um breve hist??rico sobre as avalia????es de desempenho dos servidores atualmente existentes e experi??ncias ainda em fase de consolida????o. Encerra-se apresentando algumas perspectivas para a avalia????o de desempenho no setor p??blico brasileiro.