100 futures now : designing sustainable futures

This presentation tells the story of an initiative in middle schooling at Kelvin Grove State College that begins in the Art studios, but reaches out to other disciplines and approaches, and to community and industry partners. It is inspired by the potential of 'future thinking' to become a compelling focus in contemporary art and design. Ethically it espouses a simple premise": every student in our classrooms now has a stake in creating livable, democratic and creative futures. Every student has the potential to be an active force in making that future. "100 Futures Now" is a project that envisages creative and imaginative students working in collaboration with artists and designers to visualize amazing futures and communicate their vision through art and design. "100 Futures Now" is one in a series of innovative curriculum initiatives at Kelvin Grove State College designed to build sustainable practice in arts education with the support of partners in industry and universities and with resident artists and designers. The model blends elements of art and design methodology to focus on the critical and creative thinking skills prioritised in ACARA and 21st century curriculum. The organisers are developing a sustainable model for working with resident artists that goes beyond a single arts intervention or extension/enrichment experience. In this model artists and designers are collaborators in the design of learning experiences that support future programs. This model also looks to transfer the benefits of residencies to the wider school community (in this case to middle schooling curriculum) and to teachers in other curriculum areas, and not exclusively to the immediate target group. In "100 Futures Now", story-making is the engine that powers the creative process. For this reason the program uses a series of imaginative scenarios, including those of speculative fiction and science, as departure points for inquiry, and applies the methodologies of arts and design practice to explore and express student story telling and story making. The story-making responses of student teams will naturally be expressed multimodally through visual art, design artifacts, installation, performance and digital works. The project’s focus on narratives and its modes of communication (performance/installation) are inspired by the work of experimental contemporary design practices and the speculative scenarios of U.K. based designers Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby. Thanks to the support of an Arts Queensland Artist-in -Residence grant in 2014, resident artists and designers who work with a diversity of ideas and approaches ranging over science, bio-ethics, biodiversity, behavior and ethics, ambient sound, urbanism, food, and wearable design, will work with middle school students as catalysts for deeper thinking and creative action. All these rich fields for future speculation will become triggers for team inquiry into the deeper connections between the past, the present, and future challenges such as climate, waste, energy, sustainability and resilience. These imagined futures will form the platform for a critical, sustainability/design futures approach that will involve questioning assumptions and empowering students as agents rather than consumers of change.

Corporate credit risk prediction under stochastic volatility and jumps

This paper examines the impact of allowing for stochastic volatility and jumps (SVJ) in a structural model on corporate credit risk prediction. The results from a simulation study verify the better performance of the SVJ model compared with the commonly used Merton model, and three sources are provided to explain the superiority. The empirical analysis on two real samples further ascertains the importance of recognizing the stochastic volatility and jumps by showing that the SVJ model decreases bias in spread prediction from the Merton model, and better explains the time variation in actual CDS spreads. The improvements are found particularly apparent in small firms or when the market is turbulent such as the recent financial crisis.

Real-time price based home energy management scheduler

With the recent development of advanced metering infrastructure, real-time pricing (RTP) scheme is anticipated to be introduced in future retail electricity market. This paper proposes an algorithm for a home energy management scheduler (HEMS) to reduce the cost of energy consumption using RTP. The proposed algorithm works in three subsequent phases namely real-time monitoring (RTM), stochastic scheduling (STS) and real-time control (RTC). In RTM phase, characteristics of available controllable appliances are monitored in real-time and stored in HEMS. In STS phase, HEMS computes an optimal policy using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to select a set of appliances to be controlled with an objective of the total cost of energy consumption in a house. Finally, in RTC phase, HEMS initiates the control of the selected appliances. The proposed HEMS is unique as it intrinsically considers uncertainties in RTP and power consumption pattern of various appliances. In RTM phase, appliances are categorized according to their characteristics to ease the control process, thereby minimizing the number of control commands issued by HEMS. Simulation results validate the proposed method for HEMS.

kmth price sealed-bid auctions with general independent values and equilibrium linear mark-ups

A generalised bidding model is developed to calculate a bidder’s expected profit and auctioners expected revenue/payment for both a General Independent Value and Independent Private Value (IPV) kmth price sealed-bid auction (where the mth bidder wins at the kth bid payment) using a linear (affine) mark-up function. The Common Value (CV) assumption, and highbid and lowbid symmetric and asymmetric First Price Auctions and Second Price Auctions are included as special cases. The optimal n bidder symmetric analytical results are then provided for the uniform IPV and CV models in equilibrium. Final comments concern implications, the assumptions involved and prospects for further research.

Subtropical futures : Victoria Park re-imagined

Brisbane, the capital of Queensland, in South-East Queensland is situated on the Brisbane River, one of the largest rivers (and floodplains) on the east coast of Australia. The river defines the city and gives it its name. The river has been a natural place to accommodate some population growth for the city with high-density development that capitalises on the natural amenity, cycleways and a string of parks and the flatter land. The major floods of 2011 and the scare of 2013, has seen a more malevolent quality of the river and shift of thinking on its role within the city. The floods have made council, for the first time, acquire prime development sites near the river, with proposals for high density development and made them parks, at great cost. The pressure for population growth in Brisbane remains. 140,000 new dwellings are required by 2031. Brownfield sites are less plentiful and there is interest to rethink of some of the other strategic locations in the city away from the river on higher ground and steeper slopes. Some of these places are currently open spaces. Victoria Park Golf Course sits on a high ridge line and a very strategic part of the city just north of the city centre is one of the few remaining golf courses close to the centre of an Australian capital city. While it is a public course and a valuable community asset, it has been compromised by the recently completed northern busway with two bus stations constructed on its edges. It is bounded on the west and north-east by two major community facilities, the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) to the west and RBW Hospital at its northern end. In a city in need of urban consolidation, perhaps it is time to review the future of the golf course. This question has been investigated as a conjecture in the Master of Architecture program at the QUT. The project has been to re-imagine Victoria Park as a new city parkland and a place that makes an urban connection from the QUT to the hospital. This new urban precinct is be a medium to high-density transit oriented development that capitalises on the bus way stations and the proximity of the university and hospital. The precinct will frame/define/interact with the new major urban park for the city. A key question being addressed is how the design can embody and define principles of a subtropical urbanism. Students are identifying the appropriate street and block structure, density and built form to be accommodated on blocks that define and activate a rich sequence of streets and public spaces. The paper will present a critical overview of the project work that provides a lens to how future professionals may respond to these issue that will be the focus of their professional lives.

Sustainability Non-Price Incentives and Rewards: A Collaborative Procurement Perspective

Construction scholars suggest that procurement processes can be used as mechanisms to change construction industry practices. This paper discusses industry changes as a response to the calls for integration of sustainability ideals into construction practices. Because major infrastructure construction has been identified as a key producer of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), this study explores collaborative procurement models that have been used to facilitate mitigation of GHGE. The study focuses on the application of non-price incentives and rewards that work together as a binary mechanism. Data were collected using mixed-methods: government document content analysis was complemented with data collected through focus groups and individual interviews with both clients and contractors. This report includes examples of greening procurement agendas for three Australian road authorities relating to collaborative procurement project delivery models. Three collaborative procurement models, Alliance Consortium, Early Contractor Involvement and Public Private Partnerships provide evidence of construction projects that were completed early. It can also be argued that both clients and contractors are rewarded through collaborative project delivery. The incentive of early completion is rewarded with reduction of GHGE. This positive environmental outcome, based on a dual benefit and non-price sustainability criteria, suggests a step towards changed industry practices though the use of green procurement models.

EUTOPIA 75+ : exploratory futures scenarios for baby boomers’ preferred living spaces

Australia is experiencing the global phenomenon of an ageing population with the baby boomer generation starting to reach retirement age in large numbers. As a result, there is a growing need for appropriate accommodation and this will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. However, the needs of the fit, mobile and techno savvy baby boomers are likely to be far different from those of previous generations of older people, but are as yet unknown and unanticipated. This paper reports on the findings of a Futuring research project to explore the preferred housing futures for the baby boomer generation in the city of Brisbane, an aspiring creative city in South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. Their future home design and service needs are predicted by firstly employing a global environmental scan of related and associated ageing futures issues. This was followed by a micro-Futuring workshop, based on Inayatullah’s Futures Triangle Analysis, to identify a range of scenarios. The key aspects of the workshop culminated in the development of a Transformational Scenario – EUTOPIA 75+. From this, a suite of six design recommendations for seniors’ housing design and smart services provision are synthesised to give a sense of direction of preferred living styles, especially in terms of physical housing spaces, with a view to identifying new house design opportunities for the allied industries and research organisations. The issues identified are also of concern for aged care service providers, retirement living developers, and for academics involved in the social and physical design of living spaces for older people.

A stakeholder analysis of one institution’s assuring learning experience – is the promise and the practice worth the price?

Universities around the world are rushing to implement assurance of learning policies and practices with varying degrees of success. One School investigated its own policy and practice development through the eyes of its key stakeholders to identify whether the practice was worth the price. Findings indicate that although the key stakeholders considered different needs and viewed their experiences differently, value did abound and was in the eye of the beholder.

Mapping futures for news: Trends, opportunities and challenges for Scotland

The Mapping Futures of News research and seminar programme, sponsored by the Institute for Advanced Studies in 2009-10, addressed those questions, as well as the many more immediate issues facing the Scottish news industry, such as how to survive the current period of often traumatic transition. This document summarises that work, and identifies: Mapping Futures for News: Programme Report iii • Where the main Scottish print and broadcast news media are in 2010, in terms of circulation and ratings figures; • the key trends currently impacting on Scottish news media; • the responses up to now of government and regulators to assist the Scottish media through the present problems; • the responses of the news media themselves.

Sources and composition of sub-200 nm sea spray aerosol inferred from volatility and hygroscopicity

Enrichment of marine organics in remote marine aerosols can influence their ability to act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), which are sites for water vapour to condense into cloud droplets. This project identified the composition and hygroscopicity of sea spray aerosol (SSA) formed at the ocean surface due to bursting of entrained air bubbles. SSA from organically enriched waters in the southwest Pacific and Southern Oceans were investigated. Results indicate that current emission schemes may not adequately predict SSA CCN, influencing the representation of cloud formation in climate modelling.

Energy efficient home with price sensitive stochastically programmable TCAs

Introduction of dynamic pricing in present retail market, considerably affects customers with an increased cost of energy consumption. Therefore, customers are enforced to control their loads according to price variation. This paper proposes a new technique of Home Energy Management, which helps customers to minimize their cost of energy consumption by appropriately controlling their loads. Thermostatically Controllable Appliances (TCAs) such as air conditioner and water heater are focused in this study, as they consume more than 50% of the total household energy consumption. The control process includes stochastic dynamic programming, which incorporated uncertainties in price and demand variation. It leads to an accurate selection of appliance settings. It is followed by a real time control of selected appliances with its optimal settings. Temperature set points of TCAs are adjusted based on price droop which is a reflection of actual cost of energy consumption. Customer satisfaction is maintained within limits using constraint optimization. It is showed that considerable energy savings is achieved.

Collective futures: How projections about the future of society are related to actions and attitudes supporting social change

We identified the active ingredients in people’s visions of society’s future (“collective futures”) that could drive political behavior in the present. In eight studies (N = 595), people imagined society in 2050 where climate change was mitigated (Study 1), abortion laws relaxed (Study 2), marijuana legalized (Study 3), or the power of different religious groups had increased (Studies 4-8). Participants rated how this future society would differ from today in terms of societal-level dysfunction and development (e.g., crime, inequality, education, technology), people’s character (warmth, competence, morality), and their values (e.g., conservation, self-transcendence). These measures were related to present-day attitudes/intentions that would promote/prevent this future (e.g., act on climate change, vote for a Muslim politician). A projection about benevolence in society (i.e., warmth/morality of people’s character) was the only dimension consistently and uniquely associated with present-day attitudes and intentions across contexts. Implications for social change theories, political communication, and policy design are discussed.

Food futures: Three provocations to challenge HCI interventions

Our contemporary concerns about food range from food security to agricultural sustainability to getting dinner on the table for family and friends. This book investigates food issues as they intersect with participatory Internet culture--blogs, wikis, online photo- and video-sharing platforms, and social networks in efforts to bring about a healthy, socially inclusive, and sustainable food future. Focusing on our urban environments provisioned with digital and network capacities, and drawing on such "bottom-up" sociotechnical trends as DIY and open source, the chapters describe engagements with food and technology that engender (re-)creative interactions.