A method for systematically pooling data in very early stage construction price forecasting

Client owners usually need an estimate or forecast of their likely building costs in advance of detailed design in order to confirm the financial feasibility of their projects. Because of their timing in the project life cycle, these early stage forecasts are characterized by the minimal amount of information available concerning the new (target) project to the point that often only its size and type are known. One approach is to use the mean contract sum of a sample, or base group, of previous projects of a similar type and size to the project for which the estimate is needed. Bernoulli’s law of large numbers implies that this base group should be as large as possible. However, increasing the size of the base group inevitably involves including projects that are less and less similar to the target project. Deciding on the optimal number of base group projects is known as the homogeneity or pooling problem. A method of solving the homogeneity problem is described involving the use of closed form equations to compare three different sampling arrangements of previous projects for their simulated forecasting ability by a cross-validation method, where a series of targets are extracted, with replacement, from the groups and compared with the mean value of the projects in the base groups. The procedure is then demonstrated with 450 Hong Kong projects (with different project types: Residential, Commercial centre, Car parking, Social community centre, School, Office, Hotel, Industrial, University and Hospital) clustered into base groups according to their type and size.

The governance of inter-organisational decision-making : understanding the impacts of informal networks on formal decision-making regimes in the Brisbane Airport region

Airports and cities inevitably recognise the value that each brings the other; however, the separation in decision-making authority for what to build, where, when and how provides a conundrum for both parties. Airports often want a say in what is developed outside of the airport fence, and cities often want a say in what is developed inside the airport fence. Defining how much of a say airports and cities have in decisions beyond their jurisdictional control is likely to be a topic that continues so long as airports and cities maintain separate formal decision-making processes for what to build, where, when and how. However, the recent Green and White Papers for a new National Aviation Policy have made early inroads to formalising relationships between Australia’s major airports and their host cities. At present, no clear indication (within practice or literature) is evident to the appropriateness of different governance arrangements for decisions to develop in situations that bring together the opposing strategic interests of airports and cities; thus leaving decisions for infrastructure development as complex decision-making spaces that hold airport and city/regional interests at stake. The line of enquiry is motivated by a lack of empirical research on networked decision-making domains outside of the realm of institutional theorists (Agranoff & McGuire, 2001; Provan, Fish & Sydow, 2007). That is, governance literature has remained focused towards abstract conceptualisations of organisation, without focusing on the minutia of how organisation influences action in real-world applications. A recent study by Black (2008) has provided an initial foothold for governance researchers into networked decision-making domains. This study builds upon Black’s (2008) work by aiming to explore and understand the problem space of making decisions subjected to complex jurisdictional and relational interdependencies. That is, the research examines the formal and informal structures, relationships, and forums that operationalise debates and interactions between decision-making actors as they vie for influence over deciding what to build, where, when and how in airport-proximal development projects. The research mobilises a mixture of qualitative and quantitative methods to examine three embedded cases of airport-proximal development from a network governance perspective. Findings from the research provide a new understanding to the ways in which informal actor networks underpin and combine with formal decision-making networks to create new (or realigned) governance spaces that facilitate decision-making during complex phases of development planning. The research is timely, and responds well to Isett, Mergel, LeRoux, Mischen and Rethemeyer’s (2011) recent critique of limitations within current network governance literature, specifically to their noted absence of empirical studies that acknowledge and interrogate the simultaneity of formal and informal network structures within network governance arrangements (Isett et al., 2011, pp. 162-166). The combination of social network analysis (SNA) techniques and thematic enquiry has enabled findings to document and interpret the ways in which decision-making actors organise to overcome complex problems for planning infrastructure. An innovative approach to using association networks has been used to provide insights to the importance of the different ways actors interact with one another, thus providing a simple yet valuable addition to the increasingly popular discipline of SNA. The research also identifies when and how different types of networks (i.e. formal and informal) are able to overcome currently known limitations to network governance (see McGuire & Agranoff, 2011), thus adding depth to the emerging body of network governance literature surrounding limitations to network ways of working (i.e. Rhodes, 1997a; Keast & Brown, 2002; Rethemeyer & Hatmaker, 2008; McGuire & Agranoff, 2011). Contributions are made to practice via the provision of a timely understanding of how horizontal fora between airports and their regions are used, particularly in the context of how they reframe the governance of decision-making for airport-proximal infrastructure development. This new understanding will enable government and industry actors to better understand the structural impacts of governance arrangements before they design or adopt them, particularly for factors such as efficiency of information, oversight, and responsiveness to change.

Duration-dependant response of mixed-method pre-cooling for intermittent-sprint exercise in the heat

This study examined the effects of pre-cooling duration on performance and neuromuscular function for self-paced intermittent-sprint shuttle running in the heat. Eight male, team-sport athletes completed two 35-min bouts of intermittent-sprint shuttle running separated by a 15-min recovery on three separate occasions (33°C, 34% relative humidity). Mixed-method pre-cooling was completed for 20 min (COOL20), 10-min (COOL10) or no cooling (CONT) and reapplied for 5-min mid-exercise. Performance was assessed via sprint times, percentage decline and shuttle-running distance covered. Maximal voluntary contractions (MVC), voluntary activation (VA) and evoked twitch properties were recorded pre- and post-intervention and mid- and post-exercise. Core temperature (T c), skin temperature, heart rate, capillary blood metabolites, sweat losses, perceptual exertion and thermal stress were monitored throughout. Venous blood draws pre- and post-exercise were analyzed for muscle damage and inflammation markers. Shuttle-running distances covered were increased 5.2 ± 3.3% following COOL20 (P < 0.05), with no differences observed between COOL10 and CONT (P > 0.05). COOL20 aided in the maintenance of mid- and post-exercise MVC (P < 0.05; d > 0.80), despite no conditional differences in VA (P > 0.05). Pre-exercise T c was reduced by 0.15 ± 0.13°C with COOL20 (P < 0.05; d > 1.10), and remained lower throughout both COOL20 and COOL10 compared to CONT (P < 0.05; d > 0.80). Pre-cooling reduced sweat losses by 0.4 ± 0.3 kg (P < 0.02; d > 1.15), with COOL20 0.2 ± 0.4 kg less than COOL10 (P = 0.19; d = 1.01). Increased pre-cooling duration lowered physiological demands during exercise heat stress and facilitated the maintenance of self-paced intermittent-sprint performance in the heat. Importantly, the dose-response interaction of pre-cooling and sustained neuromuscular responses may explain the improved exercise performance in hot conditions.

Mixed-method pre-cooling reduces physiological demand without improving performance of medium-fast bowling in the heat

This study examined physiological and performance effects of pre-cooling on medium-fast bowling in the heat. Ten, medium-fast bowlers completed two randomised trials involving either cooling (mixed-methods) or control (no cooling) interventions before a 6-over bowling spell in 31.9±2.1°C and 63.5±9.3% relative humidity. Measures included bowling performance (ball speed, accuracy and run-up speeds), physical characteristics (global positioning system monitoring and counter-movement jump height), physiological (heart rate, core temperature, skin temperature and sweat loss), biochemical (serum concentrations of damage, stress and inflammation) and perceptual variables (perceived exertion and thermal sensation). Mean ball speed (114.5±7.1 vs. 114.1±7.2 km · h−1; P = 0.63; d = 0.09), accuracy (43.1±10.6 vs. 44.2±12.5 AU; P = 0.76; d = 0.14) and total run-up speed (19.1±4.1 vs. 19.3±3.8 km · h−1; P = 0.66; d = 0.06) did not differ between pre-cooling and control respectively; however 20-m sprint speed between overs was 5.9±7.3% greater at Over 4 after pre-cooling (P = 0.03; d = 0.75). Pre-cooling reduced skin temperature after the intervention period (P = 0.006; d = 2.28), core temperature and pre-over heart rates throughout (P = 0.01−0.04; d = 0.96−1.74) and sweat loss by 0.4±0.3 kg (P = 0.01; d = 0.34). Mean rating of perceived exertion and thermal sensation were lower during pre-cooling trials (P = 0.004−0.03; d = 0.77−3.13). Despite no observed improvement in bowling performance, pre-cooling maintained between-over sprint speeds and blunted physiological and perceptual demands to ease the thermoregulatory demands of medium-fast bowling in hot conditions.

Effects of mixed-method cooling on recovery of medium-fast bowling performance in hot conditions on consecutive days

This investigation examined physiological and performance effects of cooling on recovery of medium-fast bowlers in the heat. Eight, medium-fast bowlers completed two randomised trials, involving two sessions completed on consecutive days (Session 1: 10-overs and Session 2: 4-overs) in 31 ± 3°C and 55 ± 17% relative humidity. Recovery interventions were administered for 20 min (mixed-method cooling vs. control) after Session 1. Measures included bowling performance (ball speed, accuracy, run-up speeds), physical demands (global positioning system, counter-movement jump), physiological (heart rate, core temperature, skin temperature, sweat loss), biochemical (creatine kinase, C-reactive protein) and perceptual variables (perceived exertion, thermal sensation, muscle soreness). Mean ball speed was higher after cooling in Session 2 (118.9 ± 8.1 vs. 115.5 ± 8.6 km · h−1; P = 0.001; d = 0.67), reducing declines in ball speed between sessions (0.24 vs. −3.18 km · h−1; P = 0.03; d = 1.80). Large effects indicated higher accuracy in Session 2 after cooling (46.0 ± 11.2 vs. 39.4 ± 8.6 arbitrary units [AU]; P = 0.13; d = 0.93) without affecting total run-up speed (19.0 ± 3.1 vs. 19.0 ± 2.5 km · h−1; P = 0.97; d = 0.01). Cooling reduced core temperature, skin temperature and thermal sensation throughout the intervention (P = 0.001–0.05; d = 1.31–5.78) and attenuated creatine kinase (P = 0.04; d = 0.56) and muscle soreness at 24-h (P = 0.03; d = 2.05). Accordingly, mixed-method cooling can reduce thermal strain after a 10-over spell and improve markers of muscular damage and discomfort alongside maintained medium-fast bowling performance on consecutive days in hot conditions.

Between formal and informal : the shakeout in China’s online video industry

While a rich body of literature in television and film studies and media policy studies has tended to focus on the media activities in the formal sector, we know much less about informal media activities, its influence on state policies, as well as the dynamics between the formal and the informal sectors. This article examines these issues with reference to a particularly revealing period following a large-scale government crackdown on peer-to-peer video sharing sites in China in 2008. By analyzing the aim and consequences of the state action, I point to the counter-productive effect in terms of cultural loss and the resurgence of offline piracy; and show the positive impact on forcing the informal into the formal sector, and pressuring the formal to innovate. Meanwhile, an increasing rapprochement between professional and user-created content leads to a new relationship between formal and informal sectors. This case demonstrates the importance of considering the dynamics between the two sectors. It also offers compelling evidence of the role of the informal sector in engendering state action, which in turn impacted on the co-evolution of the formal and the informal sectors.

Evaluation of the Suchey-Brooks Method of age estimation in an Australian subpopulation using computed tomography of the pubic symphyseal surface

Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations. This study assessed the accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia and provides robust age parameters calibrated for our population. Three-dimensional surface reconstructions were generated from computed tomography scans of the pubic symphysis of male and female Caucasian individuals aged 15–70 years (n = 195) in Amira® and Rapidform®. Error was analyzed on the basis of bias, inaccuracy and percentage correct classification for left and right symphyseal surfaces. Application of transition analysis and Chi-square statistics demonstrated 63.9% and 69.7% correct age classification associated with the left symphyseal surface of Australian males and females, respectively, using the S-B method. Using Bayesian statistics, probability density distributions for each S-B phase were calculated, providing refined age parameters for our population. Mean inaccuracies of 6.77 (±2.76) and 8.28 (±4.41) years were reported for the left surfaces of males and females, respectively; with positive biases for younger individuals (<55 years) and negative biases in older individuals. Significant sexual dimorphism in the application of the S-B method was observed; and asymmetry in phase classification of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon. These results recommend that the S-B method should be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of Queensland skeletal remains and warrant further investigation of reliable age estimation techniques.

In vitro primary cell culture as a physiologically relevant method for preclinical testing of human oncolytic adenovirus

Ad[I/PPT-E1A] is an oncolytic adenovirus that specifically kills prostate cells via restricted replication by a prostate-specific regulatory element. Off-target replication of oncolytic adenoviruses would have serious clinical consequences. As a proposed ex vivo test, we describe the assessment of the specificity of Ad[I/PPT-E1A] viral cytotoxicity and replication in human nonprostate primary cells. Four primary nonprostate cell types were selected to mimic the effects of potential in vivo exposure to Ad[I/PPT-E1A] virus: bronchial epithelial cells, urothelial cells, vascular endothelial cells, and hepatocytes. Primary cells were analyzed for Ad[I/PPT-E1A] viral cytotoxicity in MTS assays, and viral replication was determined by hexon titer immunostaining assays to quantify viral hexon protein. The results revealed that at an extreme multiplicity of infection of 500, unlikely to be achieved in vivo, Ad[I/PPT-E1A] virus showed no significant cytotoxic effects in the nonprostate primary cell types apart from the hepatocytes. Transmission electron microscopy studies revealed high levels of Ad[I/PPT-E1A] sequestered in the cytoplasm of these cells. Adenoviral green fluorescent protein reporter studies showed no evidence for nuclear localization, suggesting that the cytotoxic effects of Ad[I/PPT-E1A] in human primary hepatocytes are related to viral sequestration. Also, hepatocytes had increased amounts of coxsackie adenovirus receptor surface protein. Active viral replication was only observed in the permissive primary prostate cells and LNCaP prostate cell line, and was not evident in any of the other nonprostate cells types tested, confirming the specificity of Ad[I/PPT-E1A]. Thus, using a relevant panel of primary human cells provides a convenient and alternative preclinical assay for examining the specificity of conditionally replicating oncolytic adenoviruses in vivo.

Within-subject intra- and inter-method consistency of two experimental risk attitude elicitation methods

We compare the consistency of choices in two methods to used elicit risk preferences on an aggregate as well as on an individual level. We asked subjects to choose twice from a list of nine decision between two lotteries, as introduced by Holt and Laury (2002, 2005) alternating with nine decisions using the budget approach introduced by Andreoni and Harbaugh (2009). We find that while on an aggregate(subject pool) level the results are (roughly) consistent, on an individual(within-subject) level,behavior is far from consistent. Within each method as well as across methods we observe low correlations. This again questions the reliability of experimental risk elicitation measures and the ability to use results from such methods to control for the risk aversion of subjects when explaining e�ects in other experimental games.

Development and review of vignettes representing older people with cognitive impairment

This paper describes a process undertaken to develop and review five clinical vignettes to be used in geriatric nursing educational research. The purpose of this process was to provide valid depictions of delirium and its subtypes and distinguish delirium from dementia. Five vignettes depicting hospital bedside interactions between nursing staff, family, and an older patient who displayed signs of one of the following conditions: delirium (hyper and hypo-active types respectively), dementia, or delirium (both types) superimposed on dementia were constructed. Vignette accuracy and reliability was established using a multistage process that culminated in formal review by a group of ten international nursing and medical delirium experts. The final five vignettes accurately depicted the given scenario as agreed by the experts and were at an appropriate level of simplicity and clarity. Given the increased interest in vignettes for both nursing research and educational purposes, the described method of vignette development and review has the ability to assist other vignette developers in creating reliable representations of their desired clinical scenarios.

Timed and Probabilistic Automata for Automatic Animal Call Recognition

Automatic Call Recognition is vital for environmental monitoring. Patten recognition has been applied in automatic species recognition for years. However, few studies have applied formal syntactic methods to species call structure analysis. This paper introduces a novel method to adopt timed and probabilistic automata in automatic species recognition based upon acoustic components as the primitives. We demonstrate this through one kind of birds in Australia: Eastern Yellow Robin.

An analytical method for assessing stage-specific drug activity in Plasmodium vivax malaria : implications for ex vivo drug susceptibility testing

The emergence of highly chloroquine (CQ) resistant P. vivax in Southeast Asia has created an urgent need for an improved understanding of the mechanisms of drug resistance in these parasites, the development of robust tools for defining the spread of resistance, and the discovery of new antimalarial agents. The ex vivo Schizont Maturation Test (SMT), originally developed for the study of P. falciparum, has been modified for P. vivax. We retrospectively analysed the results from 760 parasite isolates assessed by the modified SMT to investigate the relationship between parasite growth dynamics and parasite susceptibility to antimalarial drugs. Previous observations of the stage-specific activity of CQ against P. vivax were confirmed, and shown to have profound consequences for interpretation of the assay. Using a nonlinear model we show increased duration of the assay and a higher proportion of ring stages in the initial blood sample were associated with decreased effective concentration (EC50) values of CQ, and identify a threshold where these associations no longer hold. Thus, starting composition of parasites in the SMT and duration of the assay can have a profound effect on the calculated EC50 for CQ. Our findings indicate that EC50 values from assays with a duration less than 34 hours do not truly reflect the sensitivity of the parasite to CQ, nor an assay where the proportion of ring stage parasites at the start of the assay does not exceed 66%. Application of this threshold modelling approach suggests that similar issues may occur for susceptibility testing of amodiaquine and mefloquine. The statistical methodology which has been developed also provides a novel means of detecting stage-specific drug activity for new antimalarials.

Numerical simulation of red blood cells' deformation using SPH method

A numerical simulation method for the Red Blood Cells’ (RBC) deformation is presented in this study. The two-dimensional RBC membrane is modeled by the spring network, where the elastic stretch/compression energy and the bending energy are considered with the constraint of constant RBC surface area. Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method is used to solve the Navier-Stokes equation coupled with the Plasma-RBC membrane and Cytoplasm- RBC membrane interaction. To verify the method, the motion of a single RBC is simulated in Poiseuille flow and compared with the results reported earlier. Typical motion and deformation mechanism of the RBC is observed.

Stability and convergence of a finite volume method for the space fractional advection-dispersion equation

We consider the space fractional advection–dispersion equation, which is obtained from the classical advection–diffusion equation by replacing the spatial derivatives with a generalised derivative of fractional order. We derive a finite volume method that utilises fractionally-shifted Grünwald formulae for the discretisation of the fractional derivative, to numerically solve the equation on a finite domain with homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions. We prove that the method is stable and convergent when coupled with an implicit timestepping strategy. Results of numerical experiments are presented that support the theoretical analysis.

Rule-based transit signal priority control method using a real-time transit travel time prediction model

An advanced rule-based Transit Signal Priority (TSP) control method is presented in this paper. An on-line transit travel time prediction model is the key component of the proposed method, which enables the selection of the most appropriate TSP plans for the prevailing traffic and transit condition. The new method also adopts a priority plan re-development feature that enables modifying or even switching the already implemented priority plan to accommodate changes in the traffic conditions. The proposed method utilizes conventional green extension and red truncation strategies and also two new strategies including green truncation and queue clearance. The new method is evaluated against a typical active TSP strategy and also the base case scenario assuming no TSP control in microsimulation. The evaluation results indicate that the proposed method can produce significant benefits in reducing the bus delay time and improving the service regularity with negligible adverse impacts on the non-transit street traffic.