An EM-based Semi-Parametric Mixture Model Approach to the Regression Analysis of Competing-Risks Data

We consider a mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data. Attention is focused on inference concerning the effects of factors on both the probability of occurrence and the hazard rate conditional on each of the failure types. These two quantities are specified in the mixture model using the logistic model and the proportional hazards model, respectively. We propose a semi-parametric mixture method to estimate the logistic and regression coefficients jointly, whereby the component-baseline hazard functions are completely unspecified. Estimation is based on maximum likelihood on the basis of the full likelihood, implemented via an expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performance of the proposed semi-parametric method with a fully parametric mixture approach. The results show that when the component-baseline hazard is monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric and fully parametric mixture approaches are comparable for mildly and moderately censored samples. When the component-baseline hazard is not monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric method consistently provides less biased estimates than a fully parametric approach and is comparable in efficiency in the estimation of the parameters for all levels of censoring. The methods are illustrated using a real data set of prostate cancer patients treated with different dosages of the drug diethylstilbestrol. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

A longitudinal analysis of sex differences in bone mineral accrual in healthy 8-19-year-old boys and girls

Background: Although early in life there is little discernible difference in bone mass between boys and girls, at puberty sex differences are observed. It is uncertain if these differences represent differences in bone mass or just differences in anthropometric dimensions. Aim: The study aimed to identify whether sex independently affects bone mineral content (BMC) accrual in growing boys and girls. Three sites are investigated: total body (TB), femoral neck (FN) and lumbar spine (LS). Subjects and methods: 85 boys and 67 girls were assessed annually for seven consecutive years. BMC was assessed by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Biological age was defined as years from age at peak height velocity (PHV). Data were analysed using a hierarchical (random effects) modelling approach. Results: When biological age, body size and body composition were controlled, boys had statistically significantly higher TB and FN BMC at all maturity levels (p < 0.05). No independent sex differences were found at the LS (p > 0.05). Conclusion: Although a statistical significant sex effect is observed, it is less than the error of the measurement, and thus sex difference are debatable. In general, sex difference are explained by anthropometric difference

Applied physiology and game analysis of rugby union

Increased professionalism in rugby has elicited rapid changes in the fitness profile of elite players. Recent research, focusing on the physiological and anthropometrical characteristics of rugby players, and the demands of competition are reviewed. The paucity of research on contemporary elite rugby players is highlighted, along with the need for standardised testing protocols. Recent data reinforce the pronounced differences in the anthropometric and physical characteristics of the forwards and backs. Forwards are typically heavier, taller, and have a greater proportion of body fat than backs. These characteristics are changing, with forwards developing greater total mass and higher muscularity. The forwards demonstrate superior absolute aerobic and anaerobic power, and Muscular strength. Results favour the backs when body mass is taken into account. The scaling of results to body mass can be problematic and future investigations should present results using power function ratios. Recommended tests for elite players include body mass and skinfolds, vertical jump, speed, and the multi-stage shuttle run. Repeat sprint testing is a possible avenue for more specific evaluation of players. During competition, high-intensity efforts are often followed by periods of incomplete recovery. The total work over the duration of a game is lower in the backs compared with the forwards; forwards spend greater time in physical contact with the opposition while the backs spend more time in free running, allowing them to cover greater distances. The intense efforts undertaken by rugby players place considerable stress on anaerobic energy sources, while the aerobic system provides energy during repeated efforts and for recovery. Training should focus on repeated brief high-intensity efforts with short rest intervals to condition players to the demands of the game. Training for the forwards should emphasise the higher work rates of the game, while extended rest periods can be provided to the backs. Players should not only be prepared for the demands of competition, but also the stress of travel and extreme environmental conditions. The greater professionalism of rugby union has increased scientific research in the sport; however, there is scope for significant refinement of investigations on the physiological demands of the game, and sports-specific testing procedures.

Online titrimetric and off-gas analysis for examining nitrification processes in wastewater treatment

The two steps of nitrification, namely the oxidation of ammonia to nitrite and nitrite to nitrate, often need to be considered separately in process studies. For a detailed examination, it is desirable to monitor the two-step sequence using online measurements. In this paper, the use of online titrimetric and off-gas analysis (TOGA) methods for the examination of the process is presented. Using the known reaction stoichiometry, combination of the measured signals (rates of hydrogen ion production, oxygen uptake and carbon dioxide transfer) allows the determination of the three key process rates, namely the ammonia consumption rate, the nitrite accumulation rate and the nitrate production rate. Individual reaction rates determined with the TOGA sensor under a number of operation conditions are presented. The rates calculated directly from the measured signals are compared with those obtained from offline liquid sample analysis. Statistical analysis confirms that the results from the two approaches match well. This result could not have been guaranteed using alternative online methods. As a case study, the influences of pH and dissolved oxygen (DO) on nitrite accumulation are tested using the proposed method. It is shown that nitrite accumulation decreased with increasing DO and pH. Possible reasons for these observations are discussed. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methodologies for calibration and predictive analysis of a watershed model

The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.

A yield architecture framework to explain adaptation of pearl millet to environmental stress

Functional knowledge of the physiological basis of crop adaptation to stress is a prerequisite for exploiting specific adaptation to stress environments in breeding programs. This paper presents an analysis of yield components for pearl millet, to explain the specific adaptation of local landraces to stress environments in Rajasthan, India. Six genotypes, ranging from high-tillering traditional landraces to low-tillering open-pollinated modern cultivars, were grown in 20 experiments, covering a range of nonstress and drought stress patterns. In each experiment, yield components (particle number, grain number, 100 grain mass) were measured separately for main shoots, basal tillers, and nodal tillers. Under optimum conditions, landraces had a significantly lower grain yield than the cultivars, but no significant differences were observed at yield levels around 1 ton ha(-1). This genotype x environment interaction for grain yield was due to a difference in yield strategy, where landraces aimed at minimising the risk of a crop failure under stress conditions, and modem cultivars aimed at maximising yield potential under optimum conditions. A key aspect of the adaptation of landraces was the small size of the main shoot panicle, as it minimised (1) the loss of productive tillers during stem elongation; (2) the delay in anthesis if mid-season drought occurs; and (3) the reduction in panicle productivity of the basal tillers under stress. In addition, a low investment in structural panicle weight, relative to vegetative crop growth rate, promoted the production of nodal tillers, providing a mechanism to compensate for reduced basal tiller productivity if stress occurred around anthesis. A low maximum 100 grain mass also ensured individual grain mass was little affected by environmental conditions. The strategy of the high-tillering landraces carries a yield penalty under optimum conditions, but is expected to minimise the risk of a crop failure, particularly if mid-season drought stress occurs. The yield architecture of low-tillering varieties, by contrast, will be suited to end-of-season drought stress, provided anthesis is early. Application of the above adaptation mechanisms into a breeding program could enable the identification of plant types that match the prevalent stress patterns in the target environments. (C) 2003 E.J. van Oosterom. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The quest for a sustainable product: An environmental study of tyre recyclates

The main objective of the present study is to assess the environmental advantages of substituting aluminium for a polymer composite in the manufacture of a structural product (a frame to be used as a support for solar panels). The composite was made of polypropylene and a recycled tyres’ rubber granulate. Analysis of different composite formulations was performed, to assess the variation of the environmental impact with the percentage of rubber granulate incorporation. The results demonstrate that the decision on which of the two systems (aluminium or composite) has the best life cycle performance is strongly dependent on the End-of Life (EoL) stage of the composite frame. When the EoL is deposition in a landfill, the aluminium frame performs globally better than its composite counterpart. However, when it is incineration with energy recovery or recycling, the composite frame is environmentally preferable. The raw material production stage was found to be responsible for most of the impacts in the two frame systems. In that context, it was shown that various benefits can accrue in several environmental impact categories by recycling rubber tyres and using the resulting materials. This is in a significant part also due to the recycling of the steel in the tyres. The present work illustrates how it is possible to minimize the overall environmental impact of consumer products through the adequate selection of their constitutive materials in the design stage. Additionally it demonstrates how an adequate EoL planning can be an important issue when developing a sustainable product, since it can highly influence its overall life cycle performance.

Improving the environmental performance of bedding products by using life cycle assessment at the design stage

Improvement of the environmental performance of processes and products is a common objective in industry, and has been receiving increased attention in recent years. The main objective of this work is to evaluate the potential environmental impact of two bedding products, a polyurethane foam mattress (PFM) and a pocket spring mattress (PSM). These two types are the most common mattresses used in Europe. A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) shows that the PFM has a higher environmental impact than the PSM. For both products the main cause of environmental impact is the manufacturing process, respectively the polyurethane foam block moulding process for the PFM, and the pocket spring nucleus process for the PSM. A scenario analysis shows the possibility of reducing the environmental impact of the products’ life cycle using an alternative End-of-Life scenario, resorting to incineration rather than landfill. Two strategies were also studied in order to reduce the environmental impact of the PFM: (1) reutilization of foam that was sent to the waste system management, and (2) a 20% weight reduction of the polyurethane foam. The second strategy has proven to be the most effective.

Determinants of environmental disclosure in the annual reports of large companies operating in Portugal

Similarly to what has happened in other countries, since the early 1990s Portuguese companies have developed corporate environmental reporting practices in response to internal and external factors. This paper is based on empirical research directed to both the study of environmental reporting practices developed by Portuguese companies and the identification of the factors that explain the extent to which these companies disclose environmental information. This study focuses on the environmental disclosures made in the annual reports by a sample of 109 large firms operating in Portugal during the period 2002-04. Using the content analysis technique we have developed an index in order to assess the presence of the environmental disclosures in companies’ annual reports and their breadth. Based on the extant literature, several characteristics relating to firms’ attributes were selected and their influence on the level of environmental disclosure was tested empirically. The selected explanatory variables were firm size, industry membership, profitability, foreign ownership, quotation on the stock market and environmental certification. The results reveal that, in spite of the fact that the level of environmental information disclosed during the period 2002-04 is low, the extent of environmental disclosure has increased as well as the number of Portuguese companies that disclose environmental information. Moreover, the firm size and the fact that a company is listed on the stock market are positively related to the extent of environmental disclosure. This study adds to the international research on environmental disclosure by providing empirical data from a country, Portugal, where empirical evidence is still relatively unknown, extending the scope of the current understanding of the environmental reporting practices.

Erythroderma: analysis of 247 cases

The profile of 247 patients with erythroderma during a 23 year period from January, 1962 through March, 1985, with a follow-up period ranging from 1 to 26 years were analysed. The patients presented with diffuse erythema, scaling and pruritus of more than 2 months' duration, and the age ranged from 16 to 60 years. Psoriasis was the most frequent underlying disease with an estimated frequency of 44.9%, the reaction to the use of drugs appeared in 7.3% of total cases and association with reticulosis showed a frequency of 4.1%. The cause of the erythroderma could not be determined in 29.2% of the cases. Sex differences in terms of underlying diseases were not observed. One or more skin biopsies along with the clinical findings were diagnostic or suggestive of the underlying disease in 63.6% of the cases. Repeated skin biopsies are recommended as the best method for etiologic diagnosis of erythroderma. At P=0.05 significance level, masculine/feminine ratio of 2 : 1 was found. The question arises wether causal agent of erythroderma may not be somehow related to different exposure by sex to environmental antigens.

Exposure assessment: the influence of environmental monitoring methodology

Exposure assessment is an important step of risk assessment process and has evolved more quickly than perhaps any aspect of the four-step risk paradigm (hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response analysis, and risk characterization). Nevertheless, some epidemiological studies have associated adverse health effects to a chemical exposure with an inadequate or absent exposure quantification. In addition to the metric used, the truly representation of exposure by measurements depends on: the strategy of sampling, random collection of measurements, and similarity between the measured and unmeasured exposure groups. Two environmental monitoring methodologies for formaldehyde occupational exposure were used to assess the influence of metric selection in exposure assessment and, consequently, in risk assessment process.

Neutron activation analysis of wheat samples

The deficiency of essential micronutrients and excess of toxic metals in cereals, an important food items for human nutrition, can cause public health risk. Therefore, before their consumption and adoption of soil supplementation, concentrations of essential micronutrients and metals in cereals should be monitored. This study collected soil and two varieties of wheat samples–Triticum aestivum L. (Jordão/bread wheat), and Triticum durum L. (Marialva/durum wheat) from Elvas area, Portugal and analyzed concentrations of As, Cr, Co, Fe, K, Na, Rb and Zn using Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) to focus on the risk of adverse public health issues. The low variability and moderate concentrations of metals in soils indicated a lower significant effect of environmental input on metal concentrations in agricultural soils. The Cr and Fe concentrations in soils that ranged from 93–117 and 26,400–31,300 mg/kg, respectively, were relatively high, but Zn concentration was very low (below detection limit <22 mg/kg) indicating that soils should be supplemented with Zn during cultivation. The concentrations of metals in roots and straw of both varieties of wheat decreased in the order of K>Fe>Na>Zn>Cr>Rb>As>Co. Concentrations of As, Co and Cr in root, straw and spike of both varieties were higher than the permissible limits with exception of a few samples. The concentrations of Zn in root, straw and spike were relatively low (4–30 mg/kg) indicating the deficiency of an essential micronutrient Zn in wheat cultivated in Portugal. The elemental transfer from soil to plant decreases with increasing growth of the plant. The concentrations of various metals in different parts of wheat followed the order: Root>Straw>Spike. A few root, straw and spike samples showed enrichment of metals, but the majority of the samples showed no enrichment. Potassium is enriched in all samples of root, straw and spike for both varieties of wheat. Relatively to the seed used for cultivation, Jordão presented higher transfer coefficients than Marialva, in particular for Co, Fe, and Na. The Jordão and Marialva cultivars accumulated not statistically significant different concentrations of different metals. The advantages of using INAA are the multielementality, low detection limits and use of solid samples (no need of digestion).

Application of GIS-based multi-criteria analysis for site selection of aquifer recharge with reclaimed water

Reclaimed water from small wastewater treatment facilities in the rural areas of the Beira Interior region (Portugal) may constitute an alternative water source for aquifer recharge. A 21-month monitoring period in a constructed wetland treatment system has shown that 21,500 m(3) year(-1) of treated wastewater (reclaimed water) could be used for aquifer recharge. A GIS-based multi-criteria analysis was performed, combining ten thematic maps and economic, environmental and technical criteria, in order to produce a suitability map for the location of sites for reclaimed water infiltration. The areas chosen for aquifer recharge with infiltration basins are mainly composed of anthrosol with more than 1 m deep and fine sand texture, which allows an average infiltration velocity of up to 1 m d(-1). These characteristics will provide a final polishing treatment of the reclaimed water after infiltration (soil aquifer treatment (SAT)), suitable for the removal of the residual load (trace organics, nutrients, heavy metals and pathogens). The risk of groundwater contamination is low since the water table in the anthrosol areas ranges from 10 m to 50 m. Oil the other hand, these depths allow a guaranteed unsaturated area suitable for SAT. An area of 13,944 ha was selected for study, but only 1607 ha are suitable for reclaimed water infiltration. Approximately 1280 m(2) were considered enough to set up 4 infiltration basins to work in flooding and drying cycles.

Environmental impact on the bacteriological quality of domestic water supplies in Lagos, Nigeria

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of town planning, infrastructure, sanitation and rainfall on the bacteriological quality of domestic water supplies. METHODS: Water samples obtained from deep and shallow wells, boreholes and public taps were cultured to determine the most probable number of Escherichia coli and total coliform using the multiple tube technique. Presence of enteric pathogens was detected using selective and differential media. Samples were collected during both periods of heavy and low rainfall and from municipalities that are unique with respect to infrastructure planning, town planning and sanitation. RESULTS: Contamination of treated and pipe distributed water was related with distance of the collection point from a utility station. Faults in pipelines increased the rate of contamination (p<0.5) and this occurred mostly in densely populated areas with dilapidated infrastructure. Wastewater from drains was the main source of contamination of pipe-borne water. Shallow wells were more contaminated than deep wells and boreholes and contamination was higher during period of heavy rainfall (p<0.05). E. coli and enteric pathogens were isolated from contaminated supplies. CONCLUSIONS: Poor town planning, dilapidated infrastructure and indiscriminate siting of wells and boreholes contributed to the low bacteriological quality of domestic water supplies. Rainfall accentuated the impact.