A unified model for dislocation nucleation, dislocation emission and dislocation free zone

In this paper, a unified model for dislocation nucleation, emission and dislocation free zone is proposed based on the Peierls framework. Three regions are identified ahead of the crack tip. The emitted dislocations, located away from the crack tip in the form of an inverse pileup, define the plastic zone. Between that zone and the cohesive zone immediately ahead of the crack tip, there is a dislocation free zone. With the stress field and the dislocation density field in the cohesive zone and plastic zone being, respectively, expressed in the first and second Chebyshev polynomial series, and the opening and slip displacements in trigonometric series, a set of nonlinear algebraic equations can be obtained and solved with the Newton-Raphson Method. The results of calculations for pure shearing and combined tension and shear loading after dislocation emission are given in detail. An approximate treatment of the dynamic effects of the dislocation emission is also developed in this paper, and the calculation results are in good agreement with those of molecular dynamics simulations.

Fracture criteria for combined cleavage and dislocation emission

A general theory of fracture criteria for mixed dislocation emission and cleavage processes is developed based on Ohr's model. Complicated cases involving mixed-mode loading are considered. Explicit formulae are proposed for the critical condition of crack cleavage propagation after a number of dislocation emissions. The effects of crystal orientation, crack geometry and load phase angle on the apparent critical energy release rates and the total number of the emitted dislocations at the initiation of cleavage are analysed in detail. In order to evaluate the effects of nonlinear interaction between the slip displacement and the normal separation, an analysis of fracture criteria for combined dislocation emission and cleavage is presented on the basis of the Peierls framework. The calculation clearly shows that the nonlinear theory gives slightly high values of the critical apparent energy release rate G(c) for the same load phase angle. The total number N of the emitted dislocations at the onset of cleavage given by nonlinear theory is larger than that of linear theory.

Dislocation nucleation and emission from crack-tip

The problems of dislocation nucleation and emission from a crack tip are analysed based on Peierls model. The concept adopted here is essentially the same as that proposed by Rice. A slight modification is introduced here to identify the pure linear elastic response of material. A set of new governing equations is developed, which is different from that used by Beltz and Rice. The stress field and the dislocation density field can be expressed as the first and second Chebyshev polynomial series respectively. Then the opening and slip displacements can be expanded as the trigonometric series. The Newton-Raphson Method is used to solve a set of nonlinear algebraic equations. The new governing equations allow us to extend the analyses to the case of dislocation emission. The calculation results for pure shearing, pure tension and combined tension and shear loading are given in detail.

Long Term Dynamics in CO2 Allowance Prices and Carbon Capture Investments

In this paper we analyse the behaviour of the EU market for CO2 emission allowances; specifically, we focus on the contracts maturing in the Kyoto Protocol's second period of application (2008 to 2012). We calibrate the underlying parameters for the allowance price in the long run and we also calibrate those from the Spanish wholesale electricity market. This information is then used to assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit in a coal-fired power plant. We use a two-dimensional binomial lattice where costs and profits are valued and the optimal investment time is determined. In other words, we study the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately. We further analyse the impact of several variables on the critical prices, among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy. We conclude that, at current permit prices, from a financial point of view, immediate installation does not seem justified. This need not be the case, though, if carbon market parameters change dramatically and/or a specific policy to promote these units is adopted.

Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto

Coal-fired power plants may enjoy a significant advantage relative to gas plants in terms of cheaper fuel cost. Still, this advantage may erode or even turn into disadvantage depending on CO2 emission allowance price. This price will presumably rise in both the Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012) and the first post-Kyoto years. Thus, in a carbon-constrained environment, coal plants face financial risks arising in their profit margins, which in turn hinge on their so-called "clean dark spread". These risks are further reinforced when the price of the output electricity is determined by natural gas-fired plants' marginal costs, which differ from coal plants' costs. We aim to assess the risks in coal plants' margins. We adopt parameter values estimated from empirical data. These in turn are derived from natural gas and electricity markets alongside the EU ETS market where emission allowances are traded. Monte Carlo simulation allows to compute the expected value and risk profile of coal-based electricity generation. We focus on the clean dark spread in both time periods under different future scenarios in the allowance market. Specifically, bottom 5% and 10% percentiles are derived. According to our results, certain future paths of the allowance price may impose significant risks on the clean dark spread obtained by coal plants.

Valuing Expansions of the Electricity Transmission Network under Uncertainty: The Binodal Case

Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.