Time Varying Dimension Models

Time varying parameter (TVP) models have enjoyed an increasing popularity in empirical macroeconomics. However, TVP models are parameter-rich and risk over-fitting unless the dimension of the model is small. Motivated by this worry, this paper proposes several Time Varying dimension (TVD) models where the dimension of the model can change over time, allowing for the model to automatically choose a more parsimonious TVP representation, or to switch between different parsimonious representations. Our TVD models all fall in the category of dynamic mixture models. We discuss the properties of these models and present methods for Bayesian inference. An application involving US inflation forecasting illustrates and compares the different TVD models. We find our TVD approaches exhibit better forecasting performance than several standard benchmarks and shrink towards parsimonious specifications.

Les activations autonomiques nocturnes sont associées au diabète et à l'hypertension dans la population générale

Objectif : Les variations de l'amplitude de l'onde de pouls (AOP) dérivées du signal de l'oxymètre de pouls digital reflètent les variations du tonus sympathique durant le sommeil. Le but de cette étude était de démontrer la relation entre les chutes de l'AOP nocturnes et l'hypertension artérielle (HTA) ainsi que le diabète de type 2. Méthode: 1740 sujets (50.5 % de femmes, de 56.2 ± 10.5 ans, BMI 25.4 ± 4.4 kg/m2) participant à une étude de cohorte sur le sommeil (HypnoLaus) ont bénéficié d'un enregistrement polysomnographique complet (PSG) à domicile. L'index de chutes de l'AOP (AOPi) et la durée des chutes de l'AOP (AOPd) ont été mesurés pour chaque patient. Le diabète de type 2 a été défini par une glycémie à jeun de ≥ 7 mmol/L ou la prise d'un traitement antidiabétique. Une HTA a été définie par une TA systolique ≥ 130 mmHg, ou une TA diastolique ≥ 90 mmHg, ou la prise d'un traitement antihypertenseur. Les sujets ont été considérés comme n'ayant pas de troubles du sommeil s'ils avaient < 5 apnéeshypopnées/ heure (IAH), <15 mouvements périodiques des jambes/heure (IMPJ) et un score de somnolence d'Epworth <11/24. Résultats : L'AOPi moyen dans la population sans trouble du sommeil était de 40.2 ± 15.8 chutes/h. L'AOPd moyenne était de 13.7 ± 2.6 s. L'AOPd était significativement corrélée à la TA systolique (P=0.0038) et à la TA diastolique (P<0.0001). La prévalence d'HTA augmentait significativement avec l'AOPd (OR 1.66 (1.15 - 2.4) ; P <0.01). La prévalence de diabète de type 2 augmentait également significativement avec l'AOPd (OR 2.27 (1.46 - 5.75) ; P<0.01). Ces résultats restent significatifs indépendamment du sexe, de l'âge, du tour de cou ou de la taille, de la consommation d'alcool ou de tabac. Comparé avec d'autres marqueurs de fractionnement du sommeil, l'AOPd était le marqueur le plus significativement associé à l'HTA et au diabète de type 2. L'AOPi n'était pas associé à une augmentation du diabète ou de l'HTA. Il était par contre corrélé avec l'index apnées hypopnées (p < 0.0001) et de microréveils (p<0.0001). Conclusion : La durée des variations de l'amplitude de l'onde pouls pendant le sommeil (AOPd), et non sa fréquence (AOPi), est associée avec une augmentation de prévalence de diabète de type 2 et d'hypertension.

Amputations du membre inférieur [Amputations of the lower extremity]

Still nowadays amputations are frequently performed in our country. In diabetic patients the incidence of an amputation is 25 times higher than in the normal population. All possibilities of revascularisation or limb salvage must be excluded by a multidisciplinary approach before choosing an amputation. Once the decision is taken the good level of amputation and the correct technique have to determined. The goal of this article is to describe which clinical and paraclinical parameters will help the surgeon to choose the best level of amputation, which techniques are to be used for the amputation and to finally give some information about re-education and the fitting of an orthesis or prosthesis.

Understanding the low-temperature limitations to forest growth through calibration of a forest dynamics model with tree-ring data

The sensitivity of altitudinal and latitudinal tree-line ecotones to climate change, particularly that of temperature, has received much attention. To improve our understanding of the factors affecting tree-line position, we used the spatially explicit dynamic forest model TreeMig. Although well-suited because of its landscape dynamics functions, TreeMig features a parabolic temperature growth response curve, which has recently been questioned. and the species parameters are not specifically calibrated for cold temperatures. Our main goals were to improve the theoretical basis of the temperature growth response curve in the model and develop a method for deriving that curve's parameters from tree-ring data. We replaced the parabola with an asymptotic curve, calibrated for the main species at the subalpine (Swiss Alps: Pinus cembra, Larix decidua, Picea abies) and boreal (Fennoscandia: Pinus sylvestris, Betula pubescens, P. abies) tree-lines. After fitting new parameters, the growth curve matched observed tree-ring widths better. For the subalpine species, the minimum degree-day sum allowing, growth (kDDMin) was lowered by around 100 degree-days; in the case of Larix, the maximum potential ring-width was increased to 5.19 mm. At the boreal tree-line, the kDDMin for P. sylvestris was lowered by 210 degree-days and its maximum ring-width increased to 2.943 mm; for Betula (new in the model) kDDMin was set to 325 degree-days and the maximum ring-width to 2.51 mm; the values from the only boreal sample site for Picea were similar to the subalpine ones, so the same parameters were used. However, adjusting the growth response alone did not improve the model's output concerning species' distributions and their relative importance at tree-line. Minimum winter temperature (MinWiT, mean of the coldest winter month), which controls seedling establishment in TreeMig, proved more important for determining distribution. Picea, P. sylvestris and Betula did not previously have minimum winter temperature limits, so these values were set to the 95th percentile of each species' coldest MinWiT site (respectively -7, -11, -13). In a case study for the Alps, the original and newly calibrated versions of TreeMig were compared with biomass data from the National Forest Inventor), (NFI). Both models gave similar, reasonably realistic results. In conclusion, this method of deriving temperature responses from tree-rings works well. However, regeneration and its underlying factors seem more important for controlling species' distributions than previously thought. More research on regeneration ecology, especially at the upper limit of forests. is needed to improve predictions of tree-line responses to climate change further.

Nutrition dans la bronchopneumopathie chronique obstructive [Nutrition in chronic obstructive bronchopneumopathy]

The respiratory system and nutrition are linked. Obesity is sometimes seen in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but its prevalence, the morbidity and mortality induced by it are not known. In addition, the prevalence of malnutrition is high in COPD and the more severe the COPD is, the higher percentage of malnutrition is present. Emphysematous patients are more frequently undernourished than those suffering from chronic bronchitis. Malnutrition is the consequence of the hypermetabolism induced by the higher cost of breathing in emphysema. The survival rate of these patients is negatively affected by malnutrition. A careful assessment of nutritional status must be performed in all COPD patients, especially during an episode of acute respiratory failure. When signs of malnutrition are present, a nutritional intervention should be initiated rapidly. An amount of calories sufficient to meet the energy expenditure increased by the disease must be given. Excessive intake may overstress the respiratory system whose functional reserve is limited in COPD. The diet must include a well balanced percentage of fat, carbohydrates and proteins. Preservation of the fat-free mass is the minimum goal to reach in acute respiratory failure. After the resolution of the acute phase, a gain of weight should be attempted within a rehabilitation program.

Poumon et grossesse [Lung and pregnancy].

During pregnancy several adaptations develop in response to the enhanced maternal and fetal metabolic needs. This review summarizes the major cardiorespiratory modifications of pregnancy as well as their consequences in chronic respiratory diseases such as restrictive ventilatory defects (post-tuberculosis pneumonectomy, kyphoscoliosis, neuromuscular disorders), asthma, cystic fibrosis, and pulmonary hypertension. It is important to recognize early the cardiorespiratory situations for which pregnancy is contraindicated or associated with a high risk of respiratory complications. Clinical management by an expert and often pluridisciplinary team is recommended.

Thermogenic effect of bronchodilators in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are frequently malnourished and have increased resting energy expenditure (REE). An increase in the work of breathing is generally considered to be the main cause of this hypermetabolism, but other factors may also be implicated. Bronchodilators may decrease the work of breathing by reducing airway obstruction, but beta 2 adrenergic agents have a thermogenic effect. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of salbutamol and ipratropium bromide administration on REE in patients with COPD. METHODS: Thirteen patients (10 men) of mean (SD) age 68.3 (7.3) years and forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) 39.0 (17.0)% predicted were studied on three consecutive days. The REE was measured by indirect calorimetry at 30, 60, 120, and 180 minutes after double blind nebulisation of either salbutamol, ipratropium bromide, or placebo in random order. RESULTS: FEV1 increased both after salbutamol and after ipratropium. The difference in the mean response between salbutamol and placebo over 180 minutes was +199 ml (95% CI +104 to +295). The difference in mean response between ipratropium and placebo was +78 ml (95% CI +2 to +160). REE increased after salbutamol but was not changed after ipratropium. The difference in mean response between salbutamol and placebo was +4.8% of baseline REE (95% CI +2.2 to +7.4). Heart rate increased after salbutamol but not after ipratropium. The difference in the mean response between salbutamol and placebo was +5.5 beats/ min (95% CI +2.6 to +8.4). CONCLUSION: Salbutamol, but not ipratropium bromide, induces a sustained increase in the REE of patients with COPD despite a reduction in airway obstruction.

What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence-environment relationships using statistical and machine-learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree-based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence-environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building 'under fit' models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence-environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building 'over fit' models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species ranges.

Central and Cortical Gray Mater Segmentation of Magnetic Resonance Images of the Fetal Brain

Motivation. The study of human brain development in itsearly stage is today possible thanks to in vivo fetalmagnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques. Aquantitative analysis of fetal cortical surfacerepresents a new approach which can be used as a markerof the cerebral maturation (as gyration) and also forstudying central nervous system pathologies [1]. However,this quantitative approach is a major challenge forseveral reasons. First, movement of the fetus inside theamniotic cavity requires very fast MRI sequences tominimize motion artifacts, resulting in a poor spatialresolution and/or lower SNR. Second, due to the ongoingmyelination and cortical maturation, the appearance ofthe developing brain differs very much from thehomogenous tissue types found in adults. Third, due tolow resolution, fetal MR images considerably suffer ofpartial volume (PV) effect, sometimes in large areas.Today extensive efforts are made to deal with thereconstruction of high resolution 3D fetal volumes[2,3,4] to cope with intra-volume motion and low SNR.However, few studies exist related to the automatedsegmentation of MR fetal imaging. [5] and [6] work on thesegmentation of specific areas of the fetal brain such asposterior fossa, brainstem or germinal matrix. Firstattempt for automated brain tissue segmentation has beenpresented in [7] and in our previous work [8]. Bothmethods apply the Expectation-Maximization Markov RandomField (EM-MRF) framework but contrary to [7] we do notneed from any anatomical atlas prior. Data set &Methods. Prenatal MR imaging was performed with a 1-Tsystem (GE Medical Systems, Milwaukee) using single shotfast spin echo (ssFSE) sequences (TR 7000 ms, TE 180 ms,FOV 40 x 40 cm, slice thickness 5.4mm, in plane spatialresolution 1.09mm). Each fetus has 6 axial volumes(around 15 slices per volume), each of them acquired inabout 1 min. Each volume is shifted by 1 mm with respectto the previous one. Gestational age (GA) ranges from 29to 32 weeks. Mother is under sedation. Each volume ismanually segmented to extract fetal brain fromsurrounding maternal tissues. Then, in-homogeneityintensity correction is performed using [9] and linearintensity normalization is performed to have intensityvalues that range from 0 to 255. Note that due tointra-tissue variability of developing brain someintensity variability still remains. For each fetus, ahigh spatial resolution image of isotropic voxel size of1.09 mm is created applying [2] and using B-splines forthe scattered data interpolation [10] (see Fig. 1). Then,basal ganglia (BS) segmentation is performed on thissuper reconstructed volume. Active contour framework witha Level Set (LS) implementation is used. Our LS follows aslightly different formulation from well-known Chan-Vese[11] formulation. In our case, the LS evolves forcing themean of the inside of the curve to be the mean intensityof basal ganglia. Moreover, we add local spatial priorthrough a probabilistic map created by fitting anellipsoid onto the basal ganglia region. Some userinteraction is needed to set the mean intensity of BG(green dots in Fig. 2) and the initial fitting points forthe probabilistic prior map (blue points in Fig. 2). Oncebasal ganglia are removed from the image, brain tissuesegmentation is performed as described in [8]. Results.The case study presented here has 29 weeks of GA. Thehigh resolution reconstructed volume is presented in Fig.1. The steps of BG segmentation are shown in Fig. 2.Overlap in comparison with manual segmentation isquantified by the Dice similarity index (DSI) equal to0.829 (values above 0.7 are considered a very goodagreement). Such BG segmentation has been applied on 3other subjects ranging for 29 to 32 GA and the DSI hasbeen of 0.856, 0.794 and 0.785. Our segmentation of theinner (red and blue contours) and outer cortical surface(green contour) is presented in Fig. 3. Finally, torefine the results we include our WM segmentation in theFreesurfer software [12] and some manual corrections toobtain Fig.4. Discussion. Precise cortical surfaceextraction of fetal brain is needed for quantitativestudies of early human brain development. Our workcombines the well known statistical classificationframework with the active contour segmentation forcentral gray mater extraction. A main advantage of thepresented procedure for fetal brain surface extraction isthat we do not include any spatial prior coming fromanatomical atlases. The results presented here arepreliminary but promising. Our efforts are now in testingsuch approach on a wider range of gestational ages thatwe will include in the final version of this work andstudying as well its generalization to different scannersand different type of MRI sequences. References. [1]Guibaud, Prenatal Diagnosis 29(4) (2009). [2] Rousseau,Acad. Rad. 13(9), 2006, [3] Jiang, IEEE TMI 2007. [4]Warfield IADB, MICCAI 2009. [5] Claude, IEEE Trans. Bio.Eng. 51(4) (2004). [6] Habas, MICCAI (Pt. 1) 2008. [7]Bertelsen, ISMRM 2009 [8] Bach Cuadra, IADB, MICCAI 2009.[9] Styner, IEEE TMI 19(39 (2000). [10] Lee, IEEE Trans.Visual. And Comp. Graph. 3(3), 1997, [11] Chan, IEEETrans. Img. Proc, 10(2), 2001 [12] Freesurfer,http://surfer.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu.

Non-characteristic half-lives in radioactive decay

Half-lives of radionuclides span more than 50 orders of magnitude. We characterize the probability distribution of this broad-range data set at the same time that explore a method for fitting power-laws and testing goodness-of-fit. It is found that the procedure proposed recently by Clauset et al. [SIAM Rev. 51, 661 (2009)] does not perform well as it rejects the power-law hypothesis even for power-law synthetic data. In contrast, we establish the existence of a power-law exponent with a value around 1.1 for the half-life density, which can be explained by the sharp relationship between decay rate and released energy, for different disintegration types. For the case of alpha emission, this relationship constitutes an original mechanism of power-law generation.

Walking activity measured by accelerometry during respiratory rehabilitation.

PURPOSE: Activity monitoring is considered a highly relevant outcome measure of respiratory rehabilitation. This study aimed to assess the usefulness of a new accelerometric method for characterization of walking activity during a 3-week inpatient rehabilitation program. METHODS: After individual calibration of the accelerometer at different walking speeds, whole-day physical activity was recorded for 15 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease on the first and the last days of the program, and for 10 healthy subjects. Data were expressed as percentage of time spent in inactivity, low level activity, and medium level activity, with the latter corresponding to usual walking speed. RESULTS: The patients spent more time being inactive and less time walking than healthy subjects. At the end of the rehabilitation program, medium level activity had increased from 4% to 7% of total recording time. However, the change was not significant after periods of imposed exercise training were excluded. Walking activity increased to a greater degree among the patients with preserved limb muscle strength at entry to the program. Although health status scores improved, the changes did not correlate with the changes in walking activity. CONCLUSION: The findings lead to the conclusion that this new accelerometric method provides detailed analysis of walking activity during respiratory rehabilitation and may represent an additional useful measure of outcome.

The stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity on the schistosomiasis transmission modeling - the sensitivity Analysis

A mathematical model is proposed to analyze the effects of acquired immunity on the transmission of schistosomiasis in the human host. From this model the prevalence curve dependent on four parameters can be obtained. These parameters were estimated fitting the data by the maximum likelihood method. The model showed a good retrieving capacity of real data from two endemic areas of schistosomiasis: Touros, Brazil (Schistosoma mansoni) and Misungwi, Tanzania (S. haematobium). Also, the average worm burden per person and the dispersion of parasite per person in the community can be obtained from the model. In this paper, the stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity assumption in the model are assessed in terms of the epidemiological variables as follows. Regarded to the prevalence curve, we calculate the confidence interval, and related to the average worm burden and the worm dispersion in the community, the sensitivity analysis (the range of the variation) of both variables with respect to their parameters is performed.

Diet-induced thermogenesis in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Increased resting energy expenditure and malnutrition are frequently observed in patients with COPD. The aim of this study was to examine the possible contribution of an increased diet-induced thermogenesis (DIT) to weight loss. Eleven patients with COPD in stable clinical state and 11 healthy control subjects were studied. Resting energy expenditure (REE) was measured by standard methods of indirect calorimetry, using a ventilated canopy. Premeal REE was measured after an overnight fast. All subjects then received a balanced liquid test meal with a caloric content that was 0.3 times their REE extrapolated to 24 h. Diet-induced thermogenesis was measured over 130 min. Premeal REE was 109.9 +/- 11.7% of predicted values in the COPD group and 97.5 +/- 9.6% of predicted in the control group (p < 0.01). Seventy minutes after the test meal, REE had increased by 18.8 +/- 8.5% in the COPD group and by 15.1 +/- 5.8% in the control group (NS). After 130 min, REE had increased by 16.4 +/- 7.1% in the COPD group and by 12.4 +/- 5.3% in the control group (NS). The DIT expressed as a percentage of the caloric content of the meal was 4.3 +/- 1.6% in the COPD group and 3.3 +/- 1.4% in the control group (NS). We conclude that patients with stable COPD, although hypermetabolic at rest, do not show an increased DIT.

Pulmonary toxicity with mefloquine.

This report presents a case of acute lung injury developing within hours after administration of mefloquine for a low-level Plasmodium falciparum malaria, which was persistent despite halofantrine therapy. Extensive microbiological investigation remained negative and video-assisted thoracoscopic lung biopsy demonstrated diffuse alveolar damage. The evolution was favourable without treatment. This is the second report of acute lung injury and diffuse alveolar damage caused by mefloquine. Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency was present in the former case and was thought to contribute to the lung injury. However, glucose-phosphate dehydrogenase was normal in the present case, suggesting that it is not a predisposing condition to the lung injury.