Ecological forecasting: new tools for coastal and marine ecosystem management

Policy makers, natural resource managers, regulators, and the public often call on scientists to estimate the potential ecological changes caused by both natural and human-induced stresses, and to determine how those changes will impact people and the environment. To develop accurate forecasts of ecological changes we need to: 1) increase understanding of ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning, 2) expand ecosystem monitoring and apply advanced scientific information to make these complex data widely available, and 3) develop and improve forecast and interpretative tools that use a scientific basis to assess the results of management and science policy actions. (PDF contains 120 pages)

Cruise Report: Summer 2008 Ecological Assessment of Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary NOAA Ship NANCY FOSTER NF-08-09-CCEHBR (June 14-June 21, 2008)

Summary: This cruise report is a summary of a field survey conducted within the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (SBNMS), located between Cape Cod and Cape Ann at the mouth of Massachusetts Bay. The survey was conducted June 14 – June 21, 2008 on NOAA Ship NANCY FOSTER Cruise NF-08-09-CCEHBR. Multiple indicators of ecological condition and human dimensions were sampled synoptically at each of 30 stations throughout SBNMS using a random probabilistic sampling design. Samples were collected for the analysis of benthic community structure and composition; concentrations of chemical contaminants (metals, pesticides, PAHs, PCBs, PBDEs) in sediments and target demersal biota; nutrient and chlorophyll levels in the water column; and other basic habitat characteristics such as depth, salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, pH, sediment grain size, and organic carbon content. In addition to the fish samples that were collected for analysis of chemical contaminants relative to human-health consumption limits, other human-dimension indicators were sampled as well including presence or absence of fishing gear, vessels, surface trash, marine mammals, and noxious sediment odors. The overall purpose of the survey was to collect data to assess the status of ecosystem condition and potential stressor impacts throughout SBNMS, based on these various indicators and corresponding management thresholds, and to provide this information as a baseline for determining how such conditions may be changing with time. While sample analysis is still ongoing a few preliminary results and observations are reported here. A final report will be completed once all data have been processed. The results are anticipated to be of value in supporting goals of the SBNMS and National Marine Sanctuary Program aimed at the characterization, protection, and management of sanctuary resources (pursuant to the National Marine Sanctuary Reauthorization Act) as well as a new priority of NCCOS and NOAA to apply Ecosystem Based approaches to the Management of coastal resources (EBM) through Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEAs) conducted in various coastal regions of the U.S. including the Northeast Atlantic continental shelf. This was a multi-disciplinary partnership effort made possible by scientists from the following organizations:  NOAA, National Ocean Service (NOS), National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research (CCEHBR), Charleston, SC.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL), Atlantic Ecology Division (GED), Narragansett, RI.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL), Gulf Ecology Division (GED), Gulf Breeze, FL.  U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Wetlands Research Center, Gulf Breeze Project Office, Gulf Breeze, FL.  NOAA, Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO), NOAA ship Nancy Foster. (31pp) (PDF contains 58 pages)

Ecological linkages: Marine and estuarine ecosystems of Central and Northern California

Three of California’s four National Marine Sanctuaries, Cordell Bank, Gulf of the Farallones, and Monterey Bay, are currently undergoing a comprehensive management plan review. As part of this review, NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) has collaborated with NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) to conduct a biogeographic assessment of selected marine resources using geographic information system (GIS) technology. This report complements the analyses conducted for this effort by providing an overview of the physical and biological characteristics of the region. Key ecosystems and species occurring in estuarine and marine waters are highlighted and linkages between them discussed. In addition, this report describes biogeographic processes operating to affect species’ distributional patterns. The biogeographic analyses build upon this background to further understanding of the biogeography of this region. (PDF contaons 172 pages)

Cruise Report: Spring 2007 Survey of ecological conditions along the continental shelf off Florida from Anclote Key to West Palm Beach NOAA Ship NANCY FOSTER NF-07-08-NCCOS (May 15 - May 28, 2007)

This cruise report is a summary of a field survey conducted in coastal-ocean waters off Florida from Anclote Key to West Palm Beach and from approximately 1 nautical mile (nm) offshore seaward to the shelf break (100 m). The survey was conducted May 15 - May 28, 2007 on NOAA Ship NANCY FOSTER Cruise NF-07-08-NCCOS. Multiple indicators of ecological condition were sampled synoptically at each of 50 stations throughout the region including 10 stations within the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS) using a random probabilistic sampling design. Samples were collected for the analysis of benthic community structure and composition; concentrations of chemical contaminants (metals, pesticides, PAHs, PCBs, PBDEs) in sediments and target demersal biota; nutrient and chlorophyll levels in the water column; and other basic habitat characteristics such as depth, salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, sediment grain size, and organic carbon content. The overall purpose of the survey was to collect data to assess the status of ecological condition in coastal-ocean waters of the region, based on these various indicators, and to provide this information as a baseline for determining how environmental conditions may be changing with time. The results will be of value in helping to broaden our understanding of the status of ecological resources and their controlling factors, including impacts of potential ecosystem stressors, in such strategic coastal areas. (PDF contains 34 pages

Cruise Report: Spring 2006 Survey of ecological conditions of the U.S. Middle Atlantic Bight NOAA Ship Nancy Foster NF-06-06-NCCOS (May 12 - May 21, 2006)

This cruise report is a summary of a field survey conducted in coastal-ocean waters of the Mid-Atlantic Bight from Nags Head, North Carolina to Cape Cod, Massachusetts and from approximately 1 nautical mile (nm) of shore seaward to the shelf break (100 m). The survey was conducted May 12 - May 21, 2006 on NOAA Ship NANCY FOSTER Cruise NF-06-06-NCCOS. Multiple indicators of ecological condition were sampled synoptically at each of 49 stations throughout the region using a random probabilistic sampling design. Samples were collected for the analysis of benthic community structure and composition; concentrations of chemical contaminants (metals, pesticides, PAHs, PCBs, PBDEs) in sediments and target demersal biota; nutrient and chlorophyll levels in the water column; and other basic habitat characteristics such as depth, salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, sediment grain size, and organic carbon content. The overall purpose of the survey was to collect data to assess the status of ecological condition in coastal-ocean waters of the region, based on these various indicators, and to provide this information as a baseline for determining how environmental conditions may be changing with time. The results will be of value in helping to broaden our understanding of the status of ecological resources and their controlling factors, including impacts of potential ecosystem stressors, in such strategic coastal areas. (18pp.) (PDF contains 24 pages)

Long-Term Monitoring of Ecological Conditions In Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary: Comparison of soft-bottom benthic assemblages and contaminant levels in sediments and biota in Spring 2000 and 2005

As part of an ongoing program of benthic sampling and related assessments of sediment quality at Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) off the coast of Georgia, a survey of soft-bottom benthic habitats was conducted in spring 2005 to characterize condition of macroinfaunal assemblages and levels of chemical contaminants in sediments and biota relative to a baseline survey carried out in spring 2000. Distribution and abundance of macrobenthos were related foremost to sediment type (median particle size, % gravel), which in turn varied according to bottom-habitat mesoscale features (e.g., association with live bottom versus flat or rippled sand areas). Overall abundance and diversity of soft-bottom benthic communities were similar between the two years, though dominance patterns and relative abundances of component species were less repeatable. Seasonal summer pulses of a few taxa (e.g., the bivalve Ervilia sp. A) observed in 2000 were not observed in 2005. Concentrations of chemical contaminants in sediments and biota, though detectable in both years, were consistently at low, background levels and no exceedances of sediment probable bioeffect levels or FDA action levels for edible fish or shellfish were observed. Near-bottom dissolved oxygen levels and organic-matter content of sediments also have remained within normal ranges. Highly diverse benthic assemblages were found in both years, supporting the premise that GRNMS serves as an important reservoir of marine biodiversity. A total of 353 taxa (219 identified to species) were collected during the spring 2005 survey. Cumulatively, 588 taxa (371 identified to species) have been recorded in the sanctuary from surveys in 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2005. Species Accumulation Curves indicate that the theoretical maximum should be in excess of 600 species. Results of this study will be of value in advancing strategic science and management goals for GRNMS, including characterization and long-term monitoring of sanctuary resources and processes, as well as supporting evolving interests in ecosystem-based management of the surrounding South Atlantic Bight (SAB) ecosystem. (PDF contains 46 pages)

1979 Ecological study of fishes and the water quality characteristics of Florida Bay, Everglades National Park, Florida

Fish collections under varying ecological conditions were made by trawling and seining, monthly and quarterly in depths of <1 m to depths of 3 m of the Florida Bay portion of Everglades National Park, Florida. From May 1973 through September 1976, a total of 182,530 fishes representing 128 species and 50 families were taken at 27 stations. An additional 21 species were identified from sportfish-creel surveys and supplemental observations. Most of the species collected were juveniles of species that occur as adults in the Florida Bay creel census survey, or were small species that were seasonal residents. Marked temporal and spatial abundance of the catches was observed. The greatest numbers and biomass of the fishes occurred in the wet season (summer/fall), whereas lowest numbers and biomass appeared during the dry season (winter/spring) The greatest abundance and diversity of fishes was found in western Florida Bay followed by eastern and central Bay regions respectively. Overall, five species comprised 75% of the numerical total while eleven species made up 75% of the total biomass. Collections were dominated numerically by anchovies (Engraulidae), especially Anchoa mitchilli, in western Florida Bay. Mojarras (Gerridae), mostly silver jenny Eucinostomus gula, and porgies (Sparidae), especially pinfish Lagodon rhomboides, dominated numerically in central and eastern portions of the Bay, respectively. Except for salinity, other measured physico-chemical parameters (water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity) showed no variation beyond ranges considered normal for shallow, tropical marine environments. Salinity varied from 0 to 66 ppt near the mainland. Nearshore hypersaline conditions (>45 ppt) persisted for nearly 2 years during the 1974 - 1975 severe drought period. Significant reductions in fish abundance/diversity were observed in relation to hypersaline conditions. Bay-wide macrobenthic communities were mapped (presence/absence) and were primarily comprised of turtle grass (Thalassia), shoalgrass [(Diplanthera = (Halodule)], and/or green algae Penicillus. Seasonal dieoff of seagrasses was observed in north-central Florida Bay. (PDF contains 107 pages)

The ecological basis of fishery yield of the Puerto Rico-Virgin Islands Insular Shelf: 1987 Assessment

A literature review was conducted to locate information on the flow of energy from primary producers to the fishery stocks of the Puerto Rican-Virgin Islands insular shelf. This report uses site-specific information to describe the major ecological subsystems, or habitats, of the region, to identify the more common species and the subsystems in which they occur, to quantify productivity and biomass, and to outline trophic relationships. Discussions on each topic and subsystem vary in substance and detail, being limited by the availability and accessibility of information. (PDF contains 189 pages) Seven distinct subsystems are described: mangrove estuary, seagrass bed, coral reef, algal plain, sand/mud bottom, shelf break, and overlying pelagic. Over 50 tables provide lists of species found in each habitat on various surveys dating back to 1956. Estimates of density, relative abundance, and productivity are provided when possible. We evaluated whether sufficient information exists to support an analysis of the energy basis of fishery production in the area, beginning with the design and development of an ecosystem model. Data needs in three categories - species lists, biomass, and trophic relations - were examined for each subsystem and for each of three species groups - primary producers, invertebrates, and fish. We concluded that adequate data, sufficient for modeling purposes, are available in 16 (25%) of 64 categories; limited data, those requiring greater extrapolation, are available in 35 (55%) categories; and no data are available in 13 (20%) categories. The best-studied subsystems are seagrass beds and coral reefs, with at least limited data in all categories. Invertebrates, the intermediate link in the food web between primary producers and fishes, are the least quantified group in the region. Primary production and fishes, however, are relatively well-studied, providing sufficient data to support an ecosystem-level analysis and to initiate a modeling effort.

Biogeographic analysis of the Tortugas Ecological Reserve: Examining the refuge effect following reserve establishment

Almost 120 days at sea aboard three NOAA research vessels and one fishing vessel over the past three years have supported biogeographic characterization of Tortugas Ecological Reserve (TER). This work initiated measurement of post-implementation effects of TER as a refuge for exploited species. In Tortugas South, seafloor transect surveys were conducted using divers, towed operated vehicles (TOV), remotely operated vehicles (ROV), various sonar platforms, and the Deepworker manned submersible. ARGOS drifter releases, satellite imagery, ichthyoplankton surveys, sea surface temperature, and diver census were combined to elucidate potential dispersal of fish spawning in this environment. Surveys are being compiled into a GIS to allow resource managers to gauge benthic resource status and distribution. Drifter studies have determined that within the ~ 30 days of larval life stage for fishes spawning at Tortugas South, larvae could reach as far downstream as Tampa Bay on the west Florida coast and Cape Canaveral on the east coast. Together with actual fish surveys and water mass delineation, this work demonstrates that the refuge status of this area endows it with tremendous downstream spillover and larval export potential for Florida reef habitats and promotes the maintenance of their fish communities. In Tortugas North, 30 randomly selected, permanent stations were established. Five stations were assigned to each of the following six areas: within Dry Tortugas National Park, falling north of the prevailing currents (Park North); within Dry Tortugas National Park, falling south of the prevailing currents (Park South); within the Ecological Reserve falling north of the prevailing currents (Reserve North); within the Ecological Reserve falling south of the prevailing currents (Reserve South); within areas immediately adjacent to these two strata, falling north of the prevailing currents (Out North); and within areas immediately adjacent to these two strata, falling south of the prevailing currents (Out South). Intensive characterization of these sites was conducted using multiple sonar techniques, TOV, ROV, diver-based digital video collection, diver-based fish census, towed fish capture, sediment particle-size, benthic chlorophyll analyses, and stable isotope analyses of primary producers, fish, and, shellfish. In order to complement and extend information from studies focused on the coral reef, we have targeted the ecotone between the reef and adjacent, non-reef habitats as these areas are well-known in ecology for indicating changes in trophic relationships at the ecosystem scale. Such trophic changes are hypothesized to occur as top-down control of the system grows with protection of piscivorous fishes. Preliminary isotope data, in conjunction with our prior results from the west Florida shelf, suggest that the shallow water benthic habitats surrounding the coral reefs of TER will prove to be the source of a significant amount of the primary production ultimately fueling fish production throughout TER and downstream throughout the range of larval fish dispersal. Therefore, the status and influence of the previously neglected, non-reef habitat within the refuge (comprising ~70% of TER) appears to be intimately tied to the health of the coral reef community proper. These data, collected in a biogeographic context, employing an integrated Before-After Control Impact design at multiple spatial scales, leave us poised to document and quantify the postimplementation effects of TER. Combined with the work at Tortugas South, this project represents a multi-disciplinary effort of sometimes disparate disciplines (fishery oceanography, benthic ecology, food web analysis, remote sensing/geography/landscape ecology, and resource management) and approaches (physical, biological, ecological). We expect the continuation of this effort to yield critical information for the management of TER and the evaluation of protected areas as a refuge for exploited species. (PDF contains 32 pages.)

A review of the ecological effectiveness of subtidal marine reserves in Central California, Part I: Synopsis of scientific investigations

Marine reserves, often referred to as no-take MPAs, are defined as areas within which human activities that can result in the removal or alteration of biotic and abiotic components of an ecosystem are prohibited or greatly restricted (NRC 2001). Activities typically curtailed within a marine reserve are extraction of organisms (e.g., commercial and recreational fishing, kelp harvesting, commercial collecting), mariculture, and those activities that can alter oceanographic or geologic attributes of the habitat (e.g., mining, shore-based industrial-related intake and discharges of seawater and effluent). Usually, marine reserves are established to conserve biodiversity or enhance nearby fishery resources. Thus, goals and objectives of marine reserves can be inferred, even if they are not specifically articulated at the time of reserve formation. In this report, we review information about the effectiveness of the three marine reserves in the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary (Hopkins Marine Life Refuge, Point Lobos Ecological Reserve, Big Creek Ecological Reserve), and the one in the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary (the natural area on the north side of East Anacapa Island). Our efforts to objectively evaluate reserves in Central California relative to reserve theory were greatly hampered for four primary reasons; (1) few of the existing marine reserves were created with clearly articulated goals or objectives, (2) relatively few studies of the ecological consequences of existing reserves have been conducted, (3) no studies to date encompass the spatial and temporal scope needed to identify ecosystem-wide effects of reserve protection, and (4) there are almost no studies that describe the social and economic consequences of existing reserves. To overcome these obstacles, we used several methods to evaluate the effectiveness of subtidal marine reserves in Central California. We first conducted a literature review to find out what research has been conducted in all marine reserves in Central California (Appendix 1). We then reviewed the scientific literature that relates to marine reserve theory to help define criteria to use as benchmarks for evaluation. A recent National Research Council (2001) report summarized expected reserve benefits and provided the criteria we used for evaluation of effectiveness. The next step was to identify the research projects in this region that collected information in a way that enabled us to evaluate reserve theory relative to marine reserves in Central California. Chapters 1-4 in this report provide summaries of those research projects. Contained within these chapters are evaluations of reserve effectiveness for meeting specific objectives. As few studies exist that pertain to reserve theory in Central California, we reviewed studies of marine reserves in other temperate and tropical ecosystems to determine if there were lessons to be learned from other parts of the world (Chapter 5). We also included a discussion of social and economic considerations germane to the public policy decision-making processes associated with marine reserves (Chapter 6). After reviewing all of these resources, we provided a summary of the ecological benefits that could be expected from existing reserves in Central California. The summary is presented in Part II of this report. (PDF contains 133 pages.)

A review of the ecological effectiveness of subtidal marine reserves in Central California, Part II: Summary of existing marine reserves in Central California and their potential benefits

In Central California, and elsewhere around the world, a great deal of discussion is occurring about the use of marine protected areas (MPAs) as a tool to help manage marine resources. This discussion is taking place because there is growing evidence that humans have depleted marine resources in many parts of the world, often despite strong regulatory efforts. Moreover, there is also mounting evidence that the degradation of marine resources began long ago, and we do not fully realize how much humans have altered “natural” environments. This uncertainty has led people to discuss the use of MPAs as a precautionary tool to prevent depletion or extinction of marine resources, and as a means of redressing past damages. The discussion about the use of marine reserves is increasing in intensity in California because several resource management agencies are considering reserves as they create or revise management plans. Often, the discussions surrounding this important public policy debate lead to questions about the biological or ecological value of existing marine protected areas. More than 100 MPAs exist along the coast of California. Many of these were established arbitrarily and lack specific purposes. Some California marine protected areas also have co-occurring or overlapping boundaries, have conflicting designations for use, and have conflicting rules and regulations. Because few of the existing marine protected areas have clearly articulated goals or objectives, however, it is difficult or impossible to evaluate their ecological effectiveness. (PDF contains 18 pages.)

Deepwater reef fishes and multibeam bathymetry of the Tortugas South Ecological Reserve, Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, Florida

The Tortugas South Ecological Reserve, located along the margin of the southwest Florida carbonate platform, is part of the largest no-take marine reserve in the U.S. Established in July 2001, the reserve is approximately 206 km2 in area, and ranges in depths from 30 m at Riley’s Hump to over 600 m at the southern edge of the reserve. Geological and biological information for the Tortugas South Reserve is lacking, and critical for management of the area. Bathymetric surveys were conducted with a Simrad EM 3000 multibeam echosounder at Riley’s Hump and Miller’s Ledge, located in the northern and central part of the reserve. Resulting data were used to produce basemaps to obtain geological ground truth and visual surveys of biological communities, including reef fishes. Visual surveys were conducted using SCUBA and the Phantom S2 Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) at Riley’s Hump. Visual surveys were conducted using the ROV and the Deepworker 2000 research submersible along Miller’s Ledge, within and outside of the reserve. A total of 108 fishes were recorded during SCUBA, ROV, and submersible observations. Replicate survey transects resulted in over 50 fishes documented at Miller’s Ledge, and eight of the top ten most abundant species were planktivores. Many species of groupers, including scamp (Mycteroperca phenax), red grouper (Epinephelus morio), snowy grouper (E. niveatus), speckled hind (E. drummondhayi), and Warsaw grouper (E. nigritus), are present in the sanctuary. Numerous aggregations of scamp and a bicolor phase of the Warsaw grouper were observed, indicating the importance of Miller’s Ledge as a potential spawning location for both commercially important and rare deep reef species, and as a potential source of larval recruits for the Florida Keys and other deep reef ecosystems of Florida

Taxonomic and ecological survey of the flora of Calvert County, Maryland

Resulted from a occasional field trips on the Patuxent River, 1964-1968. Taxonomy and ecology survey following the quarter method (Cottam and Curtis, 1956) Includes: Literature review: Forests, soils, ecology; Materials and Methods: location, criteria, map of Calvert county; Results: descriptive, species of trees sampled; soils, ecology; discussion: vegetational, soils, ecology; Summary; Climate; Physical features of Calvert County; Botanical descriptions; Tables, Current checklist of vascular plants; selective bibliography

A Floristic and ecological survey of Assateague Island, Virgina-Maryland

Assateague Island is an offshore bar comprising the south-eastern coast of Maryland and the northeastern coast of Virgina. It is part of the system of discontinuous barrier reefs or bars which occupy most of the Atlantic shoreline from Florida to Massachusetts. These are unstable bars, continuously influenced by storm winds and tides which provide a distinct and rigorous habitat for the vegetation there. General floras of the Delmarva Peninusla do not mention Assateague Island specifically. The objective is to prepare a catalog of the vascular plants of Assateague Island and to describe the communities in which they are found, in the hope it will add to the knowledge of barrier reef vegetation.