Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége = Empirical models of exchange rate target zones

A sávosan rögzített devizaárfolyamok elméleti és gyakorlati vizsgálatai a nemzetközi közgazdaságtan egyik legnépszerűbb témaköre volt a kilencvenes évek elején. A gyakorlati módszerek közül az alkalmazások és hivatkozások száma tekintetében az úgynevezett eltolódással igazítás módszere emelkedett ki. A módszert alkalmazó szerzők szerint amíg a lebegő árfolyamú devizák előrejelzése céltalan feladatnak tűnik, addig sávos árfolyam esetén az árfolyam sávon belüli helyzetének előrejelzése sikeresen végezhető. E tanulmány bemutatja, hogy az Európai Monetáris Rendszer és az északeurópai államok sávos árfolyamrendszereinél e módszer alkalmazásával adódott eredmények például a lebegő árfolyamú amerikai dollárra és az egységgyökfolyamatok többségére is érvényesek. A tanulmány feltárja e látszólagos ellentmondás okait, és bemutat egy olyan, a sávos árfolyamrendszerek főbb megfigyelt jellemzőire épülő modellt, amelynek keretei között a sávon belüli árfolyam előrejelzése nem feltétlenül lehetséges, mert a leértékelés előtti időszakban a sávon belüli árfolyam alakulása kaotikus lehet. / === / Following the development of the first exchange rate target zone model at the end of the eighties dozens of papers analyzed theoretical and empirical topics of currency bands. This paper reviews different empirical methods to analyze the credibility of the band and lays special emphasis on the most widely used method, the so-called drift-adjustment method. Papers applying that method claim that while forecasting a freely floating currency is hopeless, predicting an exchange rate within the future band is successful. This paper shows that the results achieved by applications to EMS and Nordic currencies are not specific to data of target zone currencies. For example, application to US dollar and even to most unit root processes leads qualitatively to the same. This paper explores the solutions of this puzzle and shows a model of target zones in which the exchange rate within the band is not necessarily predictable since the process might follow chaotic dynamics before devaluation.

North Dade Medical Foundation Donates $5 Million to Establish Scholarships, Chairs at Florida International University College of Medicine

Press Release from Florida International University 's Office of Media Relations announcing North Dade Medical Foundation's $5 million dollar donation to establish scholarships for medical students and endowed chairs at Florida International University 's College of Medicine.

Ensemble fuzzy belief intrusion detection design

With the rapid growth of the Internet, computer attacks are increasing at a fast pace and can easily cause millions of dollar in damage to an organization. Detecting these attacks is an important issue of computer security. There are many types of attacks and they fall into four main categories, Denial of Service (DoS) attacks, Probe, User to Root (U2R) attacks, and Remote to Local (R2L) attacks. Within these categories, DoS and Probe attacks continuously show up with greater frequency in a short period of time when they attack systems. They are different from the normal traffic data and can be easily separated from normal activities. On the contrary, U2R and R2L attacks are embedded in the data portions of the packets and normally involve only a single connection. It becomes difficult to achieve satisfactory detection accuracy for detecting these two attacks. Therefore, we focus on studying the ambiguity problem between normal activities and U2R/R2L attacks. The goal is to build a detection system that can accurately and quickly detect these two attacks. In this dissertation, we design a two-phase intrusion detection approach. In the first phase, a correlation-based feature selection algorithm is proposed to advance the speed of detection. Features with poor prediction ability for the signatures of attacks and features inter-correlated with one or more other features are considered redundant. Such features are removed and only indispensable information about the original feature space remains. In the second phase, we develop an ensemble intrusion detection system to achieve accurate detection performance. The proposed method includes multiple feature selecting intrusion detectors and a data mining intrusion detector. The former ones consist of a set of detectors, and each of them uses a fuzzy clustering technique and belief theory to solve the ambiguity problem. The latter one applies data mining technique to automatically extract computer users’ normal behavior from training network traffic data. The final decision is a combination of the outputs of feature selecting and data mining detectors. The experimental results indicate that our ensemble approach not only significantly reduces the detection time but also effectively detect U2R and R2L attacks that contain degrees of ambiguous information.

Enhanced biocompatibility of Nitinol via surface treatment and alloying

It is projected that by 2020, there will be 138 million Americans over 45, the age at which the increased incidence of heart diseases is documented. Many will require stents. This multi-billion dollar industry, with over 2 million patients worldwide, 15% of whom use Nitinol stents have experienced a decline in sales recently, due in part to thrombosis. It is a sudden blood clot that forms inside stents. As a result, the Food and Drug Administration and American Heart Association are calling for a new generation of stents, new designs and different alloys that are more adaptable to the arteries. The future of Nitinol therefore depends on a better understanding of the mechanisms by which Nitinol surfaces can be rendered stable and inert. In this investigation, binary and ternary Nitinol alloys were prepared and subjected to various surface treatments such as electropolishing (EP), magnetoelectropolishing (MEP) and water boiling & passivation (W&P). In vitro corrosion tests were conducted on Nitinol alloys in accordance with ASTM F 2129-08. The metal ions released into the electrolyte during corrosion tests were measured by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectroscopy (ICP-MS). Biocompatibility was assessed by observing the growth of human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC) on the surface of Nitinol alloys. Static and dynamic immersion tests were performed by immersing the Nitinol alloys in cell culture media and measuring the amount of metal ions released in solution. Sulforhodamine B (SRB) assays were performed to elucidate the effect of metal ions on the growth of HUVEC cells. The surfaces of the alloys were studied using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) respectively. Finally, wettability and surface energy were measured by Contact Angle Meter, whereas surface roughness was measured by Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM). All the surface treated alloys exhibited high resistance to corrosion when compared with untreated alloys. SRB assays revealed that Ni and Cu ions exhibited greater toxicity than Cr, Ta and Ti ions on HUVEC cells. EP and MEP alloys possessed relatively smooth surfaces and some were composed of nickel oxides instead of elemental nickel as determined by XPS. MEP exhibited lowest surface energy and lowest surface roughness.

Raising Cane in the 'Glades: The Global Sugar Trade and the Transformation of Florida

Over the last century, the Everglades underwent a metaphorical and ecological transition from impenetrable swamp to endangered wetland. At the heart of this transformation lies the Florida sugar industry, which by the 1990s was at the center of the political storm over the multi-billion dollar ecological “restoration” of the Everglades. Raising Cane in the ’Glades is the first study to situate the environmental transformation of the Everglades within the economic and historical geography of global sugar production and trade. Using, among other sources, interviews, government and corporate documents, and recently declassified U.S. State Department memoranda, Gail M. Hollander demonstrates that the development of Florida’s sugar region was the outcome of pitched battles reaching the highest political offices in the U.S. and in countries around the world, especially Cuba—which emerges in her narrative as a model, a competitor, and the regional “other” to Florida’s “self.” Spanning the period from the age of empire to the era of globalization, the book shows how the “sugar question”—a label nineteenth-century economists coined for intense international debates on sugar production and trade—emerges repeatedly in new guises. Hollander uses the sugar question as a thread to stitch together past and present, local and global, in explaining Everglades transformation.

Ecological indicators for system-wide assessment of the greater everglades ecosystem restoration program

Developing scientifically credible tools for measuring the success of ecological restoration projects is a difficult and a non-trivial task. Yet, reliable measures of the general health and ecological integrity of ecosystems are critical for assessing the success of restoration programs. The South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Task Force (Task Force), which helps coordinate a multi-billion dollar multi-organizational effort between federal, state, local and tribal governments to restore the Florida Everglades, is using a small set of system-wide ecological indicators to assess the restoration efforts. A team of scientists and managers identified eleven ecological indicators from a field of several hundred through a selection process using 12 criteria to determine their applicability as part of a system-wide suite. The 12 criteria are: (1) is the indicator relevant to the ecosystem? (2) Does it respond to variability at a scale that makes it applicable to the entire system? (3) Is the indicator feasible to implement and is it measureable? (4) Is the indicator sensitive to system drivers and is it predictable? (5) Is the indicator interpretable in a common language? (6) Are there situations where an optimistic trend with regard to an indicator might suggest a pessimistic restoration trend? (7) Are there situations where a pessimistic trend with regard to an indicator may be unrelated to restoration activities? (8) Is the indicator scientifically defensible? (9) Can clear, measureable targets be established for the indicator to allow for assessments of success? (10) Does the indicator have specificity to be able to result in corrective action? (11) What level of ecosystem process or structure does the indicator address? (12) Does the indicator provide early warning signs of ecological change? In addition, a two page stoplight report card was developed to assist in communicating the complex science inherent in ecological indicators in a common language for resource managers, policy makers and the public. The report card employs a universally understood stoplight symbol that uses green to indicate that targets are being met, yellow to indicate that targets have not been met and corrective action may be needed and red to represent that targets are far from being met and corrective action is required. This paper presents the scientific process and the results of the development and selection of the criteria, the indicators and the stoplight report card format and content. The detailed process and results for the individual indicators are presented in companion papers in this special issue of Ecological Indicators.

Using data from an encounter sampler to model fish dispersal

A method to estimate speed of free-ranging fishes using a passive sampling device is described and illustrated with data from the Everglades, U.S.A. Catch per unit effort (CPUE) from minnow traps embedded in drift fences was treated as an encounter rate and used to estimate speed, when combined with an independent estimate of density obtained by use of throw traps that enclose 1 m2 of marsh habitat. Underwater video was used to evaluate capture efficiency and species-specific bias of minnow traps and two sampling studies were used to estimate trap saturation and diel-movement patterns; these results were used to optimize sampling and derive correction factors to adjust species-specific encounter rates for bias and capture efficiency. Sailfin mollies Poecilia latipinna displayed a high frequency of escape from traps, whereas eastern mosquitofish Gambusia holbrooki were most likely to avoid a trap once they encountered it; dollar sunfish Lepomis marginatus were least likely to avoid the trap once they encountered it or to escape once they were captured. Length of sampling and time of day affected CPUE; fishes generally had a very low retention rate over a 24 h sample time and only the Everglades pygmy sunfish Elassoma evergladei were commonly captured at night. Dispersal speed of fishes in the Florida Everglades, U.S.A., was shown to vary seasonally and among species, ranging from 0· 05 to 0· 15 m s−1 for small poeciliids and fundulids to 0· 1 to 1· 8 m s−1 for L. marginatus. Speed was generally highest late in the wet season and lowest in the dry season, possibly tied to dispersal behaviours linked to finding and remaining in dry-season refuges. These speed estimates can be used to estimate the diffusive movement rate, which is commonly employed in spatial ecological models.

Two Decades Out of the Whirlpool: Past (and Possible Future) United States Interventions in Latin America [Student's Paper Series]

This paper examines the history of U.S. interventions in Latin America and attempts to explain their frequency by highlighting two factors – besides security and economic interests – that have made American interventions in Latin America so common. First, immense differences in size and influence between the United States and the States of Latin America have made interventions appear to be a low risk solution to crises that threaten American interests in the region. Second, when U.S government concerns and aspirations for Latin America converge with the general fears and aspirations of American foreign policy, interventions become much more likely. Such a convergence pushes Latin American issues high up the U.S. foreign policy agenda because of the region’s proximity to the United States and the perception that costs of intervening are low. The leads proponents of intervention to begin asking questions like “if we cannot stop communism/revolutions/drug-trafficking in Latin America, where can we stop it?” This article traces how these factors influenced the decision to intervene in Latin America during the era of Dollar Diplomacy and during the Cold War. It concludes with three possible scenarios that could lead to a reemergence of an American interventionist policy in Latin America. It makes the argument that even though the United Sates has not intervened in Latin America during the twenty-two years, it is far from clear that American interventions in Latin America will be consigned to the past.

A Look at Restaurant Commissaries

Restaurant commissaries range the full spectrum from simple storage of food and supplies to multi-million-dollar processing plants. The author discusses the cost effectiveness of commissary units, including their operating costs, quality control, and scope.

Visitor At-Destination Search for Travel-Related Services

The phenomenon of at-destination search activity and decision processes utilized by visitors to a location is predominantly an academic unknown. As destinations and organizations increasingly compete for their share of the travel dollar, it is evident that more research need to be done regarding how consumers obtain information once they arrive at a destination. This study examined visitor referral recommendations provided by hotel and non-hotel ''locals" in a moderately-sized community for lodging, food service, and recreational and entertainment venues.

File Control: The Heart Of Business Computer Management

In his study - File Control: The Heart Of Business Computer Management - William G. O'Brien, Assistant Professor, The School of Hospitality Management at Florida International University, initially informs you: “Even though computers are an everyday part of the hospitality industry, many managers lack the knowledge and experience to control and protect the files in these systems. The author offers guidelines which can minimize or prevent damage to the business as a whole.” Our author initially opens this study with some anecdotal instances illustrating the failure of hospitality managers to exercise due caution with regard to computer supported information systems inside their restaurants and hotels. “Of the three components that make up any business computer system (data files, programs, and hard-ware), it is files that are most important, perhaps irreplaceable, to the business,” O’Brien informs you. O’Brien breaks down the noun, files, into two distinct categories. They are, the files of extrinsic value, and its counterpart the files of intrinsic value. An example of extrinsic value files would be a restaurant’s wine inventory. “As sales are made and new shipments are received, the computer updates the file,” says O’Brien. “This information might come directly from a point-of-sale terminal or might be entered manually by an employee,” he further explains. On the intrinsic side of the equation, O’Brien wants you to know that the information itself is the valuable part of this type of file. Its value is over and above the file’s informational purpose as a pragmatic business tool, as it is in inventory control. “The information is money in the legal sense For instance, figures moved about in banking system computers do not represent dollars; they are dollars,” O’Brien explains. “If the record of a dollar amount is erased from all computer files, then that money ceases to exist,” he warns. This type of information can also be bought and sold, such as it is in customer lists to advertisers. Files must be protected O’Brien stresses. “File security requires a systematic approach,” he discloses. O’Brien goes on to explain important elements to consider when evaluating file information. File back-up is also an important factor to think about, along with file storage/safety concerns. “Sooner or later, every property will have its fire, flood, careless mistake, or disgruntled employee,” O’Brien closes. “…good file control can minimize or prevent damage to the business as a whole.”

Global Pricing Strategy for a Quick-Service Restaurant Chain

The purpose of this paper is to compare prices for a popular quick-service restaurant chain (i.e. McDonalds’) across countries throughout the world using the “Big Mac Index” published by “The Economist.” The index was originally developed to measure the valuation of international currencies against the U.S. dollar. The analysis in this study examines the relationship between the price of a Big Mac and other variables such as the cost of beef, price elasticity, and income. Finally, these relationships are reviewed to draw inferences concerning the use of demand, costs, and competition in setting prices.

Fast-Food Franchises: An Alternative Menu for Hotel/Casinos

In their discussion - Fast-Food Franchises: An Alternative Menu for Hotel/Casinos - by Skip Swerdlow, Assistant Professor of Finance, Larry Strate, Assistant Professor of Business Law, and Francis X. Brown, Assistant Professor of Hotel Administration at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, their preview reads: Hotel/casino food service operations are adding some non-traditional fare to their daily offerings in the form of fast-food franchises. The authors review aspects of franchising and cite some new Las Vegas food ideas.” The authors offer that the statewide food and beverage figures, according to the Nevada Gaming Abstract of 1985, exceeded $1.24 billion. Most of that figure was generated in traditional coffee shops, gourmet dining rooms, and buffets. With that kind of food and beverage figure solidly on the table, it was inevitable that fast-food franchises would move into casinos to garner a share of the proceeds. In a March 1986 review of franchising, Restaurant Business reported the following statistics: “Over 60 percent of all restaurants are franchisee owned. This relationship is also paralleled in dollar sales, which has exceeded $53 billion.” “Restaurant franchising expansion has grown at an annual rate of 12 percent per year for the past five years.” The beginning of the article is dedicated to describing, in general, the franchise phenomenon; growth has been spectacular the authors inform you. “The franchise concept has provided an easy method of going into business for the entrepreneur with minimal business experience, but a desire to work hard to make a profit,” say professors Swerdlow, Strate, and Brown. Lured by tourist traffic, and the floundering Chapter 11 afflicted, Riviera Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, Burger King saw an attractive opportunity for an experiment in non-traditional outlet placement, say the authors. Although innately transient, the tourist numbers were way too significant to ignore. That tourist traffic, the authors say, is ‘round-the-clock. Added to that figure is the 2000-3000 average employee count for many of the casinos on the ‘Vegas strip. Not surprisingly, the project began to look very appealing to both Burger King and the Riviera Hotel/Casino, the authors report. In the final analysis, the project did work out well; very well indeed. So it is written, “The successful operation of the Burger King in the Riviera has sparked interest by other existing hotel/casino operations and fast-food restaurant chains. Burger King's operation, like so many other industry leadership decisions, provides impetus for healthy competition in a market that is burgeoning not only because of expansion that recognizes traditional population growth, but because of bold moves that search for customers in non-traditional areas.” The authors provide an Appendix listing Las Vegas hotel/casino properties and the restaurants they contain.

Assessment of policies for innovative financing in infrastructure systems

Infrastructure systems are drivers of the economy in the nation. A dollar spent on infrastructure development yields roughly double the initial spending in ultimate economic output in the short term; and over a twenty-year period, and generalized ‘public investment’ produces an aggregated $3.21 of economic activity per $1.00 spent [1]. Thus, formulation of policies pertaining to infrastructure investment and development is of significance affecting the social and economic wellbeing of the nation. The aim of this policy brief is to evaluate innovative financing in infrastructure systems from two different perspectives: (1) through consideration of the current condition of infrastructure in the U.S., the current trends in public spending, and the emerging innovative financing tools; (2) through evaluation of the roles and interactions of different agencies in the creation and the diffusion of innovative financing tools. Then using the example of transportation financing, the policy brief provides an assessment of policy landscapes which could lead to the closure of infrastructure financing gap in the U.S and proposes strategies for citizen involvement to gain public support of innovative financing.

Ensemble Fuzzy Belief Intrusion Detection Design

With the rapid growth of the Internet, computer attacks are increasing at a fast pace and can easily cause millions of dollar in damage to an organization. Detecting these attacks is an important issue of computer security. There are many types of attacks and they fall into four main categories, Denial of Service (DoS) attacks, Probe, User to Root (U2R) attacks, and Remote to Local (R2L) attacks. Within these categories, DoS and Probe attacks continuously show up with greater frequency in a short period of time when they attack systems. They are different from the normal traffic data and can be easily separated from normal activities. On the contrary, U2R and R2L attacks are embedded in the data portions of the packets and normally involve only a single connection. It becomes difficult to achieve satisfactory detection accuracy for detecting these two attacks. Therefore, we focus on studying the ambiguity problem between normal activities and U2R/R2L attacks. The goal is to build a detection system that can accurately and quickly detect these two attacks. In this dissertation, we design a two-phase intrusion detection approach. In the first phase, a correlation-based feature selection algorithm is proposed to advance the speed of detection. Features with poor prediction ability for the signatures of attacks and features inter-correlated with one or more other features are considered redundant. Such features are removed and only indispensable information about the original feature space remains. In the second phase, we develop an ensemble intrusion detection system to achieve accurate detection performance. The proposed method includes multiple feature selecting intrusion detectors and a data mining intrusion detector. The former ones consist of a set of detectors, and each of them uses a fuzzy clustering technique and belief theory to solve the ambiguity problem. The latter one applies data mining technique to automatically extract computer users’ normal behavior from training network traffic data. The final decision is a combination of the outputs of feature selecting and data mining detectors. The experimental results indicate that our ensemble approach not only significantly reduces the detection time but also effectively detect U2R and R2L attacks that contain degrees of ambiguous information.