External assessment of the Early Mortality Risk Score in patients with adenocarcinoma undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy.

BACKGROUND: Pancreaticoduodenectomies (PD) still have a substantial mortality rate. Recently, different scores have been published to predict the mortality risk pre-operatively after PD. This retrospective study was designed to perform an external assessment of an Early Mortality Risk Score (EMRS). METHODS: From 2000 to 2012, all PD cases performed at our institution were documented. Only patients treated for pancreatic head adenocarcinomas were included. Survival time and EMRS (based on age, tumour size, tumour differentiation and comorbidities) were calculated for every patient. Relative risks (RR) of early death 9 and 12 months after PD were then calculated. RESULTS: Of 270 PD for various aetiologies, 120 PD for adenocarcinomas were included. The median follow-up was 37 months, and the overall median survival was 19 months. EMRS of 4 showed a mortality RR of 5.1 at 9 months (P = 0.048) and of 4.5 at 12 months (P = 0.020). CONCLUSIONS: EMRS of 4 is a predictor of tumour-related mortality at 9 and 12 months after PD for adenocarcinoma. The EMRS was externally assessed in our patient cohort and can be implemented in clinical practice. Clinical implications of this score still need to be studied.

Development of a food-exchange model to replace saturated fat with MUFAS and n-6 PUFAS in adults at moderate cardiovascular risk

The recommendation to reduce saturated fatty acid (SFA) consumption to ≤10% of total energy (%TE) is a key public health target aimed at lowering cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Replacement of SFA with unsaturated fats may provide greater benefit than replacement with carbohydrates, yet the optimal type of fat is unclear. The aim was to develop a flexible food-exchange model to investigate the effects of substituting SFAs with monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) or n-6 (ω-6) polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) on CVD risk factors. In this parallel study, UK adults aged 21-60 y with moderate CVD risk (50% greater than the population mean) were identified using a risk assessment tool (n = 195; 56% females). Three 16-wk isoenergetic diets of specific fatty acid (FA) composition (%TE SFA:%TE MUFA:%TE n-6 PUFA) were designed using spreads, oils, dairy products, and snacks as follows: 1) SFA-rich diet (17:11:4; n = 65); 2) MUFA-rich diet (9:19:4; n = 64); and 3) n-6 PUFA-rich diet (9:13:10; n = 66). Each diet provided 36%TE total fat. Dietary targets were broadly met for all intervention groups, reaching 17.6 ± 0.4%TE SFA, 18.5 ± 0.3%TE MUFA, and 10.4 ± 0.3%TE n-6 PUFA in the respective diets, with significant overall diet effects for the changes in SFA, MUFA, and n-6 PUFA between groups (P < 0.001). There were no differences in the changes of total fat, protein, carbohydrate, and alcohol intake or anthropometric measures between groups. Plasma phospholipid FA composition showed changes from baseline in the proportions of total SFA, MUFA, and n-6 PUFA for each diet group, with significant overall diet effects for total SFA and MUFA between groups (P < 0.001). In conclusion, successful implementation of the food-exchange model broadly achieved the dietary target intakes for the exchange of SFA with MUFA or n-6 PUFA with minimal disruption to the overall diet in a free-living population. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01478958.

The role of myocardial scintigraphy in the assessment of cardiovascular risk in patients with end-stage chronic kidney disease on the waiting list for renal transplantation

The usefulness of stress myocardial perfusion scintigraphy for cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification in chronic kidney disease remains controversial. We tested the hypothesis that different clinical risk profiles influence the test. We assessed the prognostic value of myocardial scintigraphy in 892 consecutive renal transplant candidates classified into four risk groups: very high (aged epsilon 50 years, diabetes and CV disease), high (two factors), intermediate (one factor) and low (no factor). The incidence of CV events and death was 20 and 18, respectively (median follow-up 22 months). Altered stress testing was associated with an increased probability of cardiovascular events only in intermediate-risk (one risk factor) patients [30.3 versus 10, hazard ratio (HR) 2.37, confidence interval (CI) 1.693.33, P 0.0001]. Low-risk patients did well regardless of scan results. In patients with two or three risk factors, an altered stress test did not add to the already increased CV risk. Myocardial scintigraphy was related to overall mortality only in intermediate-risk patients (HR 2.8, CI 1.55.1, P 0.007). CV risk stratification based on myocardial stress testing is useful only in patients with just one risk factor. Screening may avoid unnecessary testing in 60 of patients, help stratifying for risk of events and provide an explanation for the inconsistent performance of myocardial scintigraphy.

Assessment of cardiovascular risk of patients with arterial hypertension of a public health unit

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cardiovascular risk, using the Framingham risk score, in a sample of hypertensive individuals coming from a public primary care unit. METHODS: The caseload comprised hypertensive individuals according to criteria established by the JNC VII, 2003, of 2003, among 1601 patients followed up in 1999, at the Cardiology and Arterial Hypertension Outpatients Clinic of the Teaching Primary Care Unit, at the Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo. The patients were selected by draw, aged over 20 years, both genders, excluding pregnant women. It was a descriptive, cross-sectional, observational study. The Framingham risk score was used to stratify cardiovascular risk of developing coronary artery disease (death or non-fatal acute myocardial infarction). RESULTS: Age range of 27-79 years ( = 63.2 ± 9.58). Out of 382 individuals studied, 270 (70.7%) were female and 139 (36.4%) were characterized as high cardiovascular risk for presenting diabetes mellitus, atherosclerosis documented by event or procedure. Out of 243 stratified patients, 127 (52.3%) had HDL-C < 50 mg/dL; 210 (86.4%) had systolic blood pressure > 120 mmHg; 46 (18.9%) were smokers; 33 (13.6%) had a high cardiovascular risk. Those added to 139 enrolled directly as high cardiovascular risk, totaled up 172 (45%); 77 (20.2%) of medium cardiovascular risk and 133 (34.8%) of low risk. The highest percentage of high cardiovascular risk individuals was aged over 70 years; those of medium risk were aged over 60 years; and the low risk patients were aged 50 to 69 years. CONCLUSION: The significant number of high and medium cardiovascular risk individuals indicates the need to closely follow them up.

Gender-specific modulation of immune system complement gene expression in marine medaka Oryzias melastigma following dietary exposure of BDE-47

BDE-47 is one of the most widely found congeners of PBDEs in marine environments. The potential immunomodulatory effects of BDE-47 on fish complement system were studied using the marine medaka Oryzias melastigma as a model fish. Three-month-old O. melastigma were subjected to short-term (5 days) and long-term (21 days) exposure to two concentrations of BDE-47 (low dose at 290 +/- 172 ng/day; high dose at 580 +/- 344 ng/day) via dietary uptake of BDE-47 encapsulated in Artemia nauplii. Body burdens of BDE-47 and other metabolic products were analyzed in the exposed and control fish. Only a small amount of debrominated product, BDE-28, was detected, while other metabolic products were all under detection limit. Transcriptional expression of six major complement system genes involved in complement activation: C1r/s (classical pathway), MBL-2 (lectin pathway), CFP (alternative pathway), F2 (coagulation pathway), C3 (the central component of complement system), and C9 (cell lysis) were quantified in the liver of marine medaka. Endogenous expression of all six complement system genes was found to be higher in males than in females (p < 0.05). Upon dietary exposure of marine medaka to BDE-47, expression of all six complement genes were downregulated in males at day 5 (or longer), whereas in females, MBl-2, CFP, and F2 mRNAs expression were upregulated, but C3 and C9 remained stable with exposure time and dose. A significant negative relationship was found between BDE-47 body burden and mRNA expression of C1r/s, CFP, and C3 in male fish (r = -0.8576 to -0.9447). The above findings on changes in complement gene expression patterns indicate the complement system may be compromised in male O. melastigma upon dietary exposure to BDE-47. Distinct gender difference in expression of six major complement system genes was evident in marine medaka under resting condition and dietary BDE-47 challenge. The immunomodulatory effects of BDE-47 on transcriptional expression of these complement components in marine medaka were likely induced by the parent compound instead of biotransformed products. Our results clearly demonstrate that future direction for fish immunotoxicology and risk assessment of immunosuppressive chemicals must include parallel evaluation for both genders.

Multicentre validation of the Geneva Risk Score for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism. Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE).

There is a need to validate risk assessment tools for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We investigated whether a predefined cut-off of the Geneva Risk Score, as compared to the Padua Prediction Score, accurately distinguishes low-risk from high-risk patients regardless of the use of thromboprophylaxis. In the multicentre, prospective Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE) cohort study, 1,478 hospitalised medical patients were enrolled of whom 637 (43%) did not receive thromboprophylaxis. The primary endpoint was symptomatic VTE or VTE-related death at 90 days. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01277536. According to the Geneva Risk Score, the cumulative rate of the primary endpoint was 3.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-4.6%) in 962 high-risk vs 0.6% (95% CI 0.2-1.9%) in 516 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.5% vs 0.8% (p=0.029), respectively. In comparison, the Padua Prediction Score yielded a cumulative rate of the primary endpoint of 3.5% (95% CI 2.3-5.3%) in 714 high-risk vs 1.1% (95% CI 0.6-2.3%) in 764 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.2% vs 1.5% (p=0.130), respectively. Negative likelihood ratio was 0.28 (95% CI 0.10-0.83) for the Geneva Risk Score and 0.51 (95% CI 0.28-0.93) for the Padua Prediction Score. In conclusion, among hospitalised medical patients, the Geneva Risk Score predicted VTE and VTE-related mortality and compared favourably with the Padua Prediction Score, particularly for its accuracy to identify low-risk patients who do not require thromboprophylaxis.

Concepts and methods of quantitative assessment of risk to groundwater resources

This work presents a two-dimensional approach of risk assessment method based on the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby synthetic contaminant source terms were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring pollution events or a priori potential probability distribution. The spatial and temporal distributions of the generated contaminant concentrations at pre-defined monitoring points within the aquifer were then simulated from repeated realisations using integrated mathematical models. The number of times when user defined ranges of concentration magnitudes were exceeded is quantified as risk. The utilities of the method were demonstrated using hypothetical scenarios, and the risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated. The results are presented in the form of charts and spatial maps. The generated risk maps show the risk of pollution at each observation borehole, as well as the trends within the study area. This capability to generate synthetic pollution events from numerous potential sources of pollution based on historical frequency of their occurrence proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary methods.

Coronary heart disease risk factors among tri-ethnic students at Florida International University

The present study identified and compared Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) risk factors quantified as “CHD risk point standards” (CHDRPS) among tri-ethnic (White non-Hispanic [WNH], Hispanic [H], and Black non-Hispanic [BNH]) college students. All 300 tri-ethnic subjects completed the Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Instruments and had blood pressure readings recorded on three occasions. The Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis (BIA) was used to measure body composition. Students' knowledge of CHD risk factors was also measured. In addition, a 15 ml fasting blood sample was collected from 180 subjects and blood lipids and Homocysteine (tHcy) levels were measured. Data were analyzed by gender and ethnicity using one-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) with Bonferroni's pairwise mean comparison procedure, Pearson correlation, and Chi-square test with follow-up Bonferroni's Chi-square tests. ^ The mean score of CHDRPS for all subjects was 19.15 ± 6.79. Assigned to the CHD risk category, college students were below-average risk of developing CHD. Males scored significantly (p < 0.013) higher for CHD risk than females, and BNHs scored significantly (p < 0.033) higher than WNHs. High consumption of dietary fat saturated fat and cholesterol resulted in a high CHDRPS among H males and females and WNH females. High alcohol consumption resulted in a high CHDRPS among all subjects. Mean tHcy ± SD of all subjects was 6.33 ± 3. 15 μmol/L. Males had significantly (p < 0.001) higher tHcy than females. Black non-Hispanic females and H females had significantly (p < 0.003) lower tHcy than WNH females. Positive associations were found between tHcy levels and CHDRPS among females (p < 0.001), Hs (p < 0.001), H males (p < 0.049), H females (p < 0.009), and BNH females (p < 0.005). Significant positive correlations were found between BMI levels and CHDRPS in males (p < 0.001), females (p < 0.001), WNHs (p < 0.008), Hs (p < 0.001), WNH males (p < 0.024), H males (p < 0.004) and H females (p < 0.001). The mean knowledge of CHD questions of all subjects was 71.70 ± 7.92 out of 100. The mean knowledge of CHD was significantly higher for WNH males (p < 0.039) than BNH males. A significant inverse correlation (r = 0.392, p < 0.032) was found between the CHD knowledge and CHDRPS in WNH females. The researcher's findings indicate strong gender and ethnic differences in CHD risk factors among the college-age population. ^

Towards a Better Modelling and Assessment of Construction Risk: Insights from a Literature Review

This paper reviews the literature of construction risk modelling and assessment. It also reviews the real practice of risk assessment. The review resulted in significant results, summarised as follows. There has been a major shift in risk perception from an estimation variance into a project attribute. Although the Probability–Impact risk model is prevailing, substantial efforts are being put to improving it reflecting the increasing complexity of construction projects. The literature lacks a comprehensive assessment approach capable of capturing risk impact on different project objectives. Obtaining a realistic project risk level demands an effective mechanism for aggregating individual risk assessments. The various assessment tools suffer from low take-up; professionals typically rely on their experience. It is concluded that a simple analytical tool that uses risk cost as a common scale and utilises professional experience could be a viable option to facilitate closing the gap between theory and practice of risk assessment.

The Use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Performing Alternatives Assessment and Comparative Risk Analysis: The Case Study of Codling Moth Pesticides

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Role of assessment components and recent adverse outcomes in risk estimation and prediction: use of the Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) in an adult secure inpatient mental health service

The Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability is a structured judgement tool used to inform risk estimation for multiple adverse outcomes. In research, risk estimates outperform the tool's strength and vulnerability scales for violence prediction. Little is known about what its’component parts contribute to the assignment of risk estimates and how those estimates fare in prediction of non-violent adverse outcomes compared with the structured components. START assessment and outcomes data from a secure mental health service (N=84) was collected. Binomial and multinomial regression analyses determined the contribution of selected elements of the START structured domain and recent adverse risk events to risk estimates and outcomes prediction for violence, self-harm/suicidality, victimisation, and self-neglect. START vulnerabilities and lifetime history of violence, predicted the violence risk estimate; self-harm and victimisation estimates were predicted only by corresponding recent adverse events. Recent adverse events uniquely predicted all corresponding outcomes, with the exception of self-neglect which was predicted by the strength scale. Only for victimisation did the risk estimate outperform prediction based on the START components and recent adverse events. In the absence of recent corresponding risk behaviour, restrictions imposed on the basis of START-informed risk estimates could be unwarranted and may be unethical.

Performance of protective factors assessment in risk prediction for adults: systematic review and meta-analysis

Protective factors are neglected in risk assessment in adult psychiatric and criminal justice populations. This review investigated the predictive efficacy of selected tools that assess protective factors. Five databases were searched using comprehensive terms for records up to June 2014, resulting in 17 studies (n = 2,198). Results were combined in a multilevel meta-analysis using the R (R Core Team, R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2015) metafor package (Viechtbauer, Journal of Statistical Software, 2010, 36, 1). Prediction of outcomes was poor relative to a reference category of violent offending, with the exception of prediction of discharge from secure units. There were no significant differences between the predictive efficacy of risk scales, protective scales, and summary judgments. Protective factor assessment may be clinically useful, but more development is required. Claims that use of these tools is therapeutically beneficial require testing.

Improving risk stratification in non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction with combined assessment of GRACE and CRUSADE risk scores

BACKGROUND: Risk assessment is fundamental in the management of acute coronary syndromes (ACS), enabling estimation of prognosis. AIMS: To evaluate whether the combined use of GRACE and CRUSADE risk stratification schemes in patients with myocardial infarction outperforms each of the scores individually in terms of mortality and haemorrhagic risk prediction. METHODS: Observational retrospective single-centre cohort study including 566 consecutive patients admitted for non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. The CRUSADE model increased GRACE discriminatory performance in predicting all-cause mortality, ascertained by Cox regression, demonstrating CRUSADE independent and additive predictive value, which was sustained throughout follow-up. The cohort was divided into four different subgroups: G1 (GRACE<141; CRUSADE<41); G2 (GRACE<141; CRUSADE≥41); G3 (GRACE≥141; CRUSADE<41); G4 (GRACE≥141; CRUSADE≥41). RESULTS: Outcomes and variables estimating clinical severity, such as admission Killip-Kimbal class and left ventricular systolic dysfunction, deteriorated progressively throughout the subgroups (G1 to G4). Survival analysis differentiated three risk strata (G1, lowest risk; G2 and G3, intermediate risk; G4, highest risk). The GRACE+CRUSADE model revealed higher prognostic performance (area under the curve [AUC] 0.76) than GRACE alone (AUC 0.70) for mortality prediction, further confirmed by the integrated discrimination improvement index. Moreover, GRACE+CRUSADE combined risk assessment seemed to be valuable in delineating bleeding risk in this setting, identifying G4 as a very high-risk subgroup (hazard ratio 3.5; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Combined risk stratification with GRACE and CRUSADE scores can improve the individual discriminatory power of GRACE and CRUSADE models in the prediction of all-cause mortality and bleeding. This combined assessment is a practical approach that is potentially advantageous in treatment decision-making.

Índice de Qualidade da Dieta Revisado para população brasileira

O Índice de Qualidade da Dieta Revisado é um indicador de qualidade da dieta desenvolvido consoante com as recomendações nutricionais vigentes. Os dados dietéticos foram provenientes do estudo de base-populacional, Inquérito de Saúde e Alimentação (ISA)-Capital-2003. O Índice contém 12 componentes, sendo nove fundamentados nos grupos de alimentos do Guia Alimentar Brasileiro de 2006, cujas porções diárias são expressas em densidade energética; dois nutrientes (sódio e gordura saturada); e Gord_AA (calorias provenientes de gordura sólida, álcool e açúcar de adição). O Índice de Qualidade da Dieta Revisado propicia mensurar variados fatores de riscos dietéticos para doenças crônicas, permitindo, simultaneamente, avaliar e monitorar a dieta em nível individual ou populacional.