A medium-scale open economy model of Australia

We estimate an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)model of Australia with a number of shocks, frictions and rigidities, matching alarge number of observable time series. We find that both foreign and domesticshocks are important drivers of the Australian business cycle.We also find that theinitial impact on inflation of an increase in demand for Australian commoditiesis negative, due to an improvement in the real exchange rate, though there is apersistent positive effect on inflation that dominates at longer horizons.

Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy

We lay out a small open economy version of the Calvo sticky price model, and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap. We use the resulting framework to analyze the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rule-based policy regimes for the small open economy: domestic inflation and CPI-based Taylor rules, and an exchange rate peg. We show that a key difference amongthese regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail. We also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy, and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules.

Women, Work and the Iowa Economy, September 2008

Women play a substantial and crucial role in the Iowa economy. Women make up almost half the labor force, participating in the labor force at one of the highest rates in the nation. At the same time, disparities persist as to women’s prospects for success in that same economy. For instance, although women in Iowa are more likely than men to receive post-secondary education, they are also more likely to be in poverty and to earn a lower wage than male peers. The “gender gap,” the difference between male and female wages, is a much-discussed but often misunderstood tool that helps measure women’s success in the workforce. Women’s median wages are lower than men’s median wages largely because of differences in male and female occupations and work history, although gender discrimination in the workforce also plays a role. This report investigates Iowa’s gender gap in ways that clearly show both its causes and effects and suggests policy responses that could ensure women’s full and equal participation in Iowa’s economic future. Understanding the differences between men’s and women’s experiences in the state economy is important for developing policies that can effectively address barriers to economic success for all Iowans.

The political economy of employment protection

This paper develops a model of job creation and job destruction in agrowing economy with embodied technical progress, that we use toanalyze the political support for employment protection legislationssuch as the ones that are observed in most European countries.We analyze the possibility of Condorcet cycles due to the fact thatworkers about to become unemployed prefer both an increase and areduction in firing costs over the status quo. Despite this problem, we show the existence of local, and sometimes global majority winners.In voting in favour of employment protection, incumbent employeestrade off lower living standards (because employment protectionmaintains workers in less productive activities) against longer job duration. We show that the gains from, and consequently the politicalsupport for employment protection (as defined by maximunjob tenure) are larger, the lower the rate of creative destruction and the largerthe worker's bargaining power. Numerical simulations suggest a hump-shaped response of firing costs to these variables, as well as negative impact of exogeneous turnover on employment protection.

Stable sunspot equilibria in a cash-in-advance economy

We analyze a monetary model with flexible labor supply, cash-inadvance constraints and seigniorage-financed government deficits. If the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of labor is greater than one, there are two steady states, one determinate and the other indeterminate. If the elasticity is less than one, there is a unique steady state, which can be indeterminate. Only in the latter case do there exist sunspot equilibria that are stable under adaptive learning. A sufficient reduction in government purchases can in many cases eliminate the sunspot equilibria while raising consumption/labor taxes even enough to balance the budget may fail to achieve determinacy.

Iowa's Workforce and the Economy, 2008

A discussion of Iowa's key economic indicators as well as commentary on various apsects of the statewide econony.

Which inflation to target? A small open economy with sticky wages indexed to past inflation

In a closed economy context there is common agreement on price inflation stabilization being one of the objects of monetary policy. Moving to an open economy context gives rise to the coexistence of two measures of inflation: domestic inflation (DI) and consumer price inflation (CPI). Which one of the two measures should be the target variable? This is the question addressed in this paper. In particular, I use a small open economy model to show that once sticky wages indexed to past CPI inflation are introduced, a complete inward looking monetary policy is no more optimal. I first, derive a loss function from a secondorder approximation of the utility function and then, I compute the fully optimalmonetary policy under commitment. Then, I use the optimal monetary policy as a benchmark to compare the performance of different monetary policy rules. The main result is that once a positive degree of indexation is introduced in the model the rule performing better (among the Taylor type rules considered) is the one targeting wage inflation and CPI inflation. Moreover this rule delivers results very close to the one obtained under the fully optimal monetary policy with commitment.

The geophysical electromagnetic prospecting in the spatial location of the travertine deposits of the Banyoles Depression (Girona)

The results of the application of the geophysical electromagnetic prospection methods in the resolution of the problems of the spatial location of the travertine quaternary formations of the Banyoles depression are presented

Personality traits, cognition and volumetric MRI changes in elderly patients with early-onset depression: A 2-year follow-up study.

Previous studies revealed personality changes in elderly patients with early-onset depression (EOD) that persist in euthymic stages. However, depression in older patients is a complex disorder that may affect not only personality, but also cognition and brain structure. To address this issue, a cross-sectional comparison and 2-year follow-up of 28 EOD elderly patients and 48 healthy controls included detailed neurocognitive assessment, estimates of brain volumes in limbic areas and white matter hyperintensities, as well as evaluation of the Five Factor Model of personality, in a remitted mood state. Results revealed that cognitive performances as well as brain volumes were preserved in EOD patients both at baseline and at follow-up. The increased Neuroticism factor and Anxiety facet scores as well as the decreased Warmth and Positive Emotions facet scores found at baseline reached the level of healthy controls after 2years. Only the Depression facet scores remained significantly higher in EOD patients compared to controls upon follow-up. Results were independent of depressive relapse since baseline (25% of patients). These findings suggest that both cognitive performances and brain volumes show long-term preservation in older EOD patients. In contrast, the depression-related personality facet might be a trait like marker that persists in the long-term evolution of this disorder.

Relações material de origem / solo e pedogênese em uma seqüência de solos predominantemente argilosos e Latossólicos sobre psamitos na depressão periférica Paulista: Paulo State Peripheral Depression, southeastern Brazil

Na região da Depressão Periférica Paulista, estudaram-se os solos em uma encosta representativa das baixas colinas com relevo suave ondulado e lançantes longos do baixo vale do rio Piracicaba. Após intensas observações de campo, foram amostrados cinco pedons, assentados em rochas psamíticas da formação Itararé (Carbonífero-Permiano). Quatro apresentaram características latossólicas e textura argilosa e um, interposto na porção superior da meia encosta, textura média e B textural. Com observações de campo, estratigráficas, macro e micromorfológicas e da mineralogia da argila, concluiu-se que grande parte do material de origem dos pedons Latossólicos argilosos proveio do retrabalhamento de um sedimento neocenozóico argiloso, previamente bastante intemperizado, com remanescentes semelhantes, hoje ocupando preferencialmente as superfícies cimeiras locais, e sem aparente filiação com as rochas psamíticas subjacentes. Deduziu-se que as características latossólicas dos solos da meia encosta e do sopé foram herdadas de idêntico material. No terço inferior da encosta, ocorreu um Bt, relativamente pouco espesso, interpretado como produto de transformação do transportado Bw, principalmente por mecanismos de argiluviação que coalescem os antigos microagregados tipicamente Latossólicos. O mais provável material de origem do Podzólico Vermelho-Amarelo Latossólico textura média/argilosa no terço superior da meia encosta, foi considerado como derivado, em grande parte, de sedimento correlativo a um antigo e elevado depósito aluvial correspondente a um nível de terraço do rio Piracicaba, hoje quase totalmente reafeiçoado.

Investigating the possible causal association of smoking with depression and anxiety using Mendelian randomisation meta-analysis: the CARTA consortium.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether associations of smoking with depression and anxiety are likely to be causal, using a Mendelian randomisation approach. DESIGN: Mendelian randomisation meta-analyses using a genetic variant (rs16969968/rs1051730) as a proxy for smoking heaviness, and observational meta-analyses of the associations of smoking status and smoking heaviness with depression, anxiety and psychological distress. PARTICIPANTS: Current, former and never smokers of European ancestry aged ≥16 years from 25 studies in the Consortium for Causal Analysis Research in Tobacco and Alcohol (CARTA). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Binary definitions of depression, anxiety and psychological distress assessed by clinical interview, symptom scales or self-reported recall of clinician diagnosis. RESULTS: The analytic sample included up to 58 176 never smokers, 37 428 former smokers and 32 028 current smokers (total N=127 632). In observational analyses, current smokers had 1.85 times greater odds of depression (95% CI 1.65 to 2.07), 1.71 times greater odds of anxiety (95% CI 1.54 to 1.90) and 1.69 times greater odds of psychological distress (95% CI 1.56 to 1.83) than never smokers. Former smokers also had greater odds of depression, anxiety and psychological distress than never smokers. There was evidence for positive associations of smoking heaviness with depression, anxiety and psychological distress (ORs per cigarette per day: 1.03 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.04), 1.03 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.04) and 1.02 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.03) respectively). In Mendelian randomisation analyses, there was no strong evidence that the minor allele of rs16969968/rs1051730 was associated with depression (OR=1.00, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.05), anxiety (OR=1.02, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.07) or psychological distress (OR=1.02, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.06) in current smokers. Results were similar for former smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from Mendelian randomisation analyses do not support a causal role of smoking heaviness in the development of depression and anxiety.

Anxiety, depression and school absenteeism in youth with chronic or episodic headache.

BACKGROUND: Chronic daily headache (CDH) in children has been documented in general and clinical populations. Comorbid psychological conditions, risk factors and functional outcomes of CDH in children are not well understood. OBJECTIVES: To examine anxiety and depression, associated risk factors and school outcomes in a clinical population of youth with CDH compared with youth with episodic headache (EH). METHODS: Data regarding headache characteristics, anxiety, depression and missed school days were collected from 368 consecutive patients eight to 17 years of age, who presented with primary headache at a specialized pediatric headache centre. RESULTS: A total of 297 patients (81%) were diagnosed with EH and 71 were diagnosed with CDH. Among those with CDH, 78.9% presented with chronic tension-type headache and 21.1% with chronic migraine (CM). Children with CDH had a higher depression score than the standardized reference population. No difference was observed for anxiety or depression scores between children with CDH and those with EH. However, children with CM were more anxious and more depressed than those with chronic tension-type headache. Youth experiencing migraine with aura were three times as likely to have clinically significant anxiety scores. Headache frequency and history were not associated with psychopathological symptoms. Children with CDH missed school more often and for longer periods of time. CONCLUSIONS: These findings document the prevalence of anxiety, depression and school absenteeism in youth with CDH or EH. The present research also extends recent studies examining the impact of aura on psychiatric comorbidity and the debate on CM criteria.