Fuzzy real option analysis in patent related decision making and patent valuation

The shift towards a knowledge-based economy has inevitably prompted the evolution of patent exploitation. Nowadays, patent is more than just a prevention tool for a company to block its competitors from developing rival technologies, but lies at the very heart of its strategy for value creation and is therefore strategically exploited for economic pro t and competitive advantage. Along with the evolution of patent exploitation, the demand for reliable and systematic patent valuation has also reached an unprecedented level. However, most of the quantitative approaches in use to assess patent could arguably fall into four categories and they are based solely on the conventional discounted cash flow analysis, whose usability and reliability in the context of patent valuation are greatly limited by five practical issues: the market illiquidity, the poor data availability, discriminatory cash-flow estimations, and its incapability to account for changing risk and managerial flexibility. This dissertation attempts to overcome these impeding barriers by rationalizing the use of two techniques, namely fuzzy set theory (aiming at the first three issues) and real option analysis (aiming at the last two). It commences with an investigation into the nature of the uncertainties inherent in patent cash flow estimation and claims that two levels of uncertainties must be properly accounted for. Further investigation reveals that both levels of uncertainties fall under the categorization of subjective uncertainty, which differs from objective uncertainty originating from inherent randomness in that uncertainties labelled as subjective are highly related to the behavioural aspects of decision making and are usually witnessed whenever human judgement, evaluation or reasoning is crucial to the system under consideration and there exists a lack of complete knowledge on its variables. Having clarified their nature, the application of fuzzy set theory in modelling patent-related uncertain quantities is effortlessly justified. The application of real option analysis to patent valuation is prompted by the fact that both patent application process and the subsequent patent exploitation (or commercialization) are subject to a wide range of decisions at multiple successive stages. In other words, both patent applicants and patentees are faced with a large variety of courses of action as to how their patent applications and granted patents can be managed. Since they have the right to run their projects actively, this flexibility has value and thus must be properly accounted for. Accordingly, an explicit identification of the types of managerial flexibility inherent in patent-related decision making problems and in patent valuation, and a discussion on how they could be interpreted in terms of real options are provided in this dissertation. Additionally, the use of the proposed techniques in practical applications is demonstrated by three fuzzy real option analysis based models. In particular, the pay-of method and the extended fuzzy Black-Scholes model are employed to investigate the profitability of a patent application project for a new process for the preparation of a gypsum-fibre composite and to justify the subsequent patent commercialization decision, respectively; a fuzzy binomial model is designed to reveal the economic potential of a patent licensing opportunity.

Organization of the marketing communication activities after fusion - the integration and the decision making processes

This master’s thesis was made in order to gain answers to the question of how the integration of the marketing communications and the decision making related to it in a geographically dispersed service organization could be improved in a situation where an organization has gone through a merger. The effects of the organizational design dimensions towards the integration of the marketing communications and the decision making related to it was the main focus. A case study as a research strategy offered a perfect frames for an exploratory study and the data collection was conducted by semi-structured interviews and observing. The main finding proved that from the chosen design dimensions, decentralization, coordination and power, could be found specific factors that in a geographically dispersed organization are affecting the integration of the marketing communications negatively. The effects can be seen mostly in the decision making processes, roles and in the division of responsibility, which are affecting the other dimensions and by this, the integration. In a post-merger situation, the coordination dimension and especially the information asymmetry and the information flow seem to have a largest affect towards the integration of the marketing communications. An asymmetric information distribution with the lack of business and marketing education resulted in low self-assurance and at the end in fragmented management and to the inability to set targets and make independent decisions. As conclusions it can be stated, that with the organizational design dimensions can the effects of a merger towards the integration process of the marketing communications to be evaluated.

Impact of Word-of-Mouth on consumer decision-making: An information processing perspective in the context of a high-involvement service

This doctoral study conducts an empirical analysis of the impact of Word-of-Mouth (WOM) on marketing-relevant outcomes such as attitudes and consumer choice, during a high-involvement and complex service decision. Due to its importance to decisionmaking, WOM has attracted interest from academia and practitioners for decades. Consumers are known to discuss products and services with one another. These discussions help consumers to form an evaluative opinion, as WOM reduces perceived risk, simplifies complexity, and increases the confidence of consumers in decisionmaking. These discussions are also highly impactful as WOM is a trustworthy source of information, since it is independent from the company or brand. In responding to the calls for more research on what happens after WOM information is received, and how it affects marketing-relevant outcomes, this dissertation extends prior WOM literature by investigating how consumers process information in a highinvolvement service domain, in particular higher-education. Further, the dissertation studies how the form of WOM influences consumer choice. The research contributes to WOM and services marketing literature by developing and empirically testing a framework for information processing and studying the long-term effects of WOM. The results of the dissertation are presented in five research publications. The publications are based on longitudinal data. The research leads to the development of a proposed theoretical framework for the processing of WOM, based on theories from social psychology. The framework is specifically focused on service decisions, as it takes into account evaluation difficulty through the complex nature of choice criteria associated with service purchase decisions. Further, other gaps in current WOM literature are taken into account by, for example, examining how the source of WOM and service values affects the processing mechanism. The research also provides implications for managers aiming to trigger favorable WOM through marketing efforts, such as advertising and testimonials. The results provide suggestions on how to design these marketing efforts by taking into account the mechanism through which information is processed, or the form of social influence.

A Study of role conflict, role ambiguity, locus of control, job satisfaction and participation in decision making among front-line vocational service workers for mentally retarded adults

This study was an investigation of individual and organizational factors, as perceived by front-line vocational service workers from Adult Rehabilitation Centres (ARC Industries) for mentally retarded adults. The specific variables which were measured included role conflict/role ambiguity (role factors), internal/external locus of control (individual differences), job satisfaction with work and supervision (job attitudes) and participation in deci~ion making (organizational factor). The exploration of these constructs was conducted by means of self-report questionnaires which were completed by sixty-nine out of a total of ninety front-line employees. The surveys were distributed in booklet form to nine distinct rehabilitation facilities from St. Catharines, West Lincoln, Greater Niagara, Port Colborne, WeIland, Fort Erie, Hamilton, Guelph and Brantford. The survey data was evaluated by the statisti.cal Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) which used the Pearson Product Moment Correlation procedure and a compar~son of means test. A comparison of correlation coefficients test was also conducted. This statistical procedure was calculated mathematically. The results obtained from the statistical evaluation confirmed the prediction that self-reported measures of participation in decision making and satisfaction (work and supervision) would be negatively correlated with role conflict and role ambiguity. As well, the speculation that perceived satisfaction (work and supervision) would be positively correlated with participation in decision making was empirically supported. Internal and external locus of control did not contribute to a significant difference in r~sponses to role perceptions (conflict and ambiguity) , satisfaction (work and supervision) or the correlational relationship between participation in decision making and satisfaction (work and supervision). Overall, the findings from this study substantiated the importance of examining employee perceptions in the workplace and the interrelationships among individual and organizational variables. This research was considered a contribution to the general area of occupational stress and to the study of individuals in work organizations.

A study on the role of the parent in educational decision making from the perspective of parents and teachers

ADeweyan (1916) democratic theoty ofeducation called for the participation ofall citizens in deliberating important educational issues to improve overall student learning. Thus, the move to include parents in educational decision making can be considered to be rooted in democratic principles. To gain greater insight into the issue ofparent involvement in educational decision making, one elementary school was studied and a triangulization method was employed in an attempt to clarify the important issues surrolUlding the move to include parents in the governance ofschools. The three methods to gain information included surveys, interviews, and documentation ofsignificant school events and related work. All ofthe parents and teachers ofthe school were surveyed, 10 parents and 6teachers were interviewed, and related school events were recorded. The survey design was modeled on the Parent Involvement Questionnaire (PIQ) created and reported on by Chavkin and Williams (1987). The results ofthe surveys were used as a guide for the interview questions. An interview outline was developed based on Seidman's (1991) open-ended approach and Patton's (1980) standardized open-ended interview style in which parents and teachers were asked about their experiences and opinions on anmnber ofparent involvement issues. Parents and teachers in this school indicated agreater interest in becoming more aware ofeducational issues such as school budget and school discipline policies. Although the parents indicated agreater interest in school matters and the teachers indicated awillingness to include parents in school matters, both the parents and teachers in this study perceived the role ofthe parent as advisory, not decision making. It was concluded that to ensure ameaningful and functional role for parellts as tlleir p811icipatioll ill educational matters evolves, SCllools must have a clear vision ofthe primary goal ofall schools, namely, to foster and nourish democratic citizens for ademocratic society (Glickman, 1993). Furthennore, intentional practices such as Purkey's (ad) 5-P Relay approach, based on a democratic theory and practice of education, will have to be employed in order to give parents an authentic voice in educational matters and provide an avenue for parents to acquire the necessary skills and lmowledge needed to do so. As schools, school boards, and the Ministry ofEducation implement parent involvement guidelines and policies, developmental needs ofeach school need to be considered to ensure the employment ofdemocratic practices not authoritarian mandates. Parent interest and involvement, at whatever level, should be an important element in the overall move to make schools part ofthe democratic society they were meant to be.

Youth Involvement in Organizational Decision Making: The Connection to Youth Initiative and Organizational Functioning

Studying positive adolescent development requires an examination of the mutually beneficial associations between youth and their environment. These youthcontext relations include both the contributions that youth make to others and society and the youth-context interactions that might predict positive youth outcomes. Community and youth-serving organizations, where youth may be involved in decision-making roles such as service delivery, advocacy, or on boards of directors, can provide one important context for youth contributions and for positive adolescent development. Research on the outcomes of youth involvement in organizational decision-making, however, is limited, and largely consists of exploratory qualitative studies. This dissertation is formatted as an integrated article dissertation. It begins with a review of the literature on contexts of structured youth activities and positive youth development. This review is intended to describe theory on development-context relations, in which development is considered an interactive process that occurs between individuals and their contexts, as it pertains the positive development of youth who are involved in various structured activities (e.g., volunteering). This description follows with a review of current research, and conclusions and rationale for the current studies. Following this theoretical and research background, the dissertation includes reports of two studies that were designed to address gaps in the research on youth involvement in organizational decision-making. The first was a qualitative research synthesis to elucidate and summarize the extant qualitative research on the outcomes of youth involvement in organizational decision making on adults and organizations. Results of this study suggested a number of outcomes for service provision, staff, and broader organizational functioning, including both benefits to organizations as well as some costs. The second study was a quantitative analysis of the associations among youth involvement, organizations' learning culture, and youth initiative, and relied on survey data gathered from adults and youth in community-based organizations with youth involvement. As expected, greater youth involvement in organizational decision making was associated with higher learning culture within the organization. Two dimensions of youth involvement, greater program engagement and relationships with adults, were related to greater youth initiative. A third dimension, sense of ownership, was not- .-.- associated with youth's level of initiative. Moreover, the association between relationships with adults and youth initiative was only significant in organizations with relatively low learning culture. Despite some limitations, these studies contribute to the research literature by providing some indication of the potential benefits and costs of youth involvement and by making an important contribution toward the early stages of context-level analyses of youth development. Findings have important implications for practitioners, funders, future research, and lifespan development theory.

Tribunals and Guidelines: Exploring the Relationship Between Fairness and Legitimacy in Administrative Decision-Making

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Analogy in Decision-Making

In the context of decision making under uncertainty, we formalize the concept of analogy: an analogy between two decision problems is a mapping that transforms one problem into the other while preserving the problem's structure. We identify the basic structure of a decision problem, and provide a representation of the mappings that pre- serve this structure. We then consider decision makers who use multiple analogies. Our main results are a representation theorem for "aggregators" of analogies satisfying certain minimal requirements, and the identification of preferences emerging from analogical reasoning. We show that a large variety of multiple-prior preferences can be thought of as emerging from analogical reasoning.

Agendas in legislative decision-making

Despite the wide range of agendas used in legislative decision-making, the literature has focused almost exclusively on two stylized formats, the so-called Euro-Latin and Anglo-American agendas. As emphasized by Ordeshook and Schwartz [1987], this focus leaves a sizable gap in our understanding of the legislative process. To help address the deficiency, I first define a very broad class of agendas (called simple agendas) whose features are common among agendas used in legislative settings. I then characterize the sophisticated (Farquharson [1969]) voting outcomes implemented by agendas in this class. By establishing a clear connection between the structure of simple agendas and the outcomes associated with them, the characterization extends our understanding of legislative decision-making well beyond the very limited scope of Euro-Latin and Anglo-American agendas.

Group preference structures in AHP–group decision making

This paper presents a procedure that allows us to determine the preference structures (PS) associated to each of the different groups of actors that can be identified in a group decision making problem with a large number of individuals. To that end, it makes use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) (Saaty, 1980) as the technique to solve discrete multicriteria decision making problems. This technique permits the resolution of multicriteria, multienvironment and multiactor problems in which subjective aspects and uncertainty have been incorporated into the model, constructing ratio scales corresponding to the priorities relative to the elements being compared, normalised in a distributive manner (wi = 1). On the basis of the individuals’ priorities we identify different clusters for the decision makers and, for each of these, the associated preference structure using, to that end, tools analogous to those of Multidimensional Scaling. The resulting PS will be employed to extract knowledge for the subsequent negotiation processes and, should it be necessary, to determine the relative importance of the alternatives being compared using anyone of the existing procedures

Behind the decision making of the KFC coffee campaign, can KFC win the coffee market in UK?�

KFC, the chain fast-food restaurants in UK, planed to launched coffee products through campaigns. There are two main reasons for KFC to make the decision. The first one is KFC tried to promote its coffee products with KFC A.M. breakfast plan and it failed at last. The second reason is that KFC needs extension points of interest. The financial condition of KFC has been steady but no breakthrough growth. It has been showed that there is enormous potential of “fast-drink” market in UK. After the success of KFC “Krushems” series, it is reasonable for the company launched coffee products. However, KFC also faced to many challenges to win the market. Compare to the main competitor of McDonald’s, KFC’s quantity of restaurants is far too less. Moreover, KFC has a brand limitation that focuses more family than single urban. The dominant competitors are another challenge KFC need to manage. To sum up, KFC has to win these challenges to be a bigger player in UK coffee market.