Monte Carlo Hypothesis Testing with The Sharpe Ratio

The purpose of this master thesis was to perform simulations that involve use of random number while testing hypotheses especially on two samples populations being compared weather by their means, variances or Sharpe ratios. Specifically, we simulated some well known distributions by Matlab and check out the accuracy of an hypothesis testing. Furthermore, we went deeper and check what could happen once the bootstrapping method as described by Effrons is applied on the simulated data. In addition to that, one well known RobustSharpe hypothesis testing stated in the paper of Ledoit and Wolf was applied to measure the statistical significance performance between two investment founds basing on testing weather there is a statistically significant difference between their Sharpe Ratios or not. We collected many literatures about our topic and perform by Matlab many simulated random numbers as possible to put out our purpose; As results we come out with a good understanding that testing are not always accurate; for instance while testing weather two normal distributed random vectors come from the same normal distribution. The Jacque-Berra test for normality showed that for the normal random vector r1 and r2, only 94,7% and 95,7% respectively are coming from normal distribution in contrast 5,3% and 4,3% failed to shown the truth already known; but when we introduce the bootstrapping methods by Effrons while estimating pvalues where the hypothesis decision is based, the accuracy of the test was 100% successful. From the above results the reports showed that bootstrapping methods while testing or estimating some statistics should always considered because at most cases the outcome are accurate and errors are minimized in the computation. Also the RobustSharpe test which is known to use one of the bootstrapping methods, studentised one, were applied first on different simulated data including distribution of many kind and different shape secondly, on real data, Hedge and Mutual funds. The test performed quite well to agree with the existence of statistical significance difference between their Sharpe ratios as described in the paper of Ledoit andWolf.

Cardiothoracic ratio and vertebral heart size (VHS) to standardize the heart size of the tufted capuchin (Cebus apella Linnaeus, 1758) in computerized radiographic images

Abstract: The VHS and CTR were assessed using computerized thoracic radiographs of ten clinically healthy tufted capuchin monkeys (five males and five females) from the Wild Animal Screening Center in São Luís (Centro de Triagem de Animais Silvestres de São Luís-MA-CETAS). Radiographs were taken in laterolateral and dorsoventral projections to calculate the cardiothoracic ratio (VHS) and vertebral heart size (CTR). The VHS showed mean values of 9.34±0.32v (males) and 9.16±0.34v (females) and there was no statistical difference between males and females (p>0.05). The CTR showed mean values of 0.55±0.04 (males) and 0.52±0.03 (females) and there was no statistical difference between the sexes (p>0.05). There was positive correlation between VHS and CTR (r=0.78). The thoracic and heart diameters showed mean values of 5.70±0.48cm and 2.16±0.40cm in the males, respectively. In the females they measured 5.32±0.39cm and 2.94±0.32cm. There was no statistical difference between the sexes. Our results show that the high correlation found between VHS and CTR permitted the verification with similar clinical precision between the two methods to estimate alterations in the heart silhouette by radiographic examination of tufted capuchin, making it an easy technique to apply that can be considered in the investigation of heart problems for this wild species.

Plasma hydroxy-metronidazole/ metronidazole ratio in hepatitis C virus-induced liver disease

It has been suggested that the measurement of metronidazole clearance is a sensitive method for evaluating liver function. The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of plasma hydroxy-metronidazole/metronidazole ratios as indicators of dynamic liver function to detect changes resulting from the various forms of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. A total of 139 individuals were studied: 14 healthy volunteers, 22 healthy, asymptomatic, consecutive anti-HCV-positive HCV-RNA negative subjects, 81 patients with chronic hepatitis C (49 with moderate/severe chronic hepatitis and 34 with mild hepatitis), and 20 patients with cirrhosis of the liver. HCV status was determined by the polymerase chain reaction. Plasma concentrations of metronidazole and its hydroxy-metabolite were measured by reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography with ultraviolet detection in a blood sample collected 10 min after the end of a metronidazole infusion. Anti-HCV-positive HCV-RNA-negative individuals demonstrated a significantly reduced capacity to metabolize intravenously infused metronidazole compared to healthy individuals (0.0478 ± 0.0044 vs 0.0742 ± 0.0232). Liver cirrhosis patients also had a reduced plasma hydroxy-metronidazole/metronidazole ratio when compared to the other groups of anti-HCV-positive individuals (0.0300 ± 0.0032 vs 0.0438 ± 0.0027 (moderate/severe chronic hepatitis) vs 0.0455 ± 0.0026 (mild chronic hepatitis) and vs 0.0478 ± 0.0044 (anti-HCV-positive, HCV-RNA-negative individuals)). These results suggest an impairment of the metronidazole metabolizing system induced by HCV infection that lasts after viral clearance. In those patients with chronic hepatitis C, this impairment is paralleled by progression of the disease to liver cirrhosis.

Efficacy of the FEV1/FEV6 ratio compared to the FEV1/FVC ratio for the diagnosis of airway obstruction in subjects aged 40 years or over

The present cross-sectional, population-based study was designed to evaluate the performance of the FEV1/FEV6 ratio for the detection of airway-obstructed subjects compared to the FEV1/FVC <0.70 fixed ratio test, as well as the lower limit of normality (LLN) for 1000 subjects ³40 years of age in the metropolitan area of São Paulo, SP, Brazil. After the exclusion of 37 (3.7%) spirometries, a total of 963 pre-bronchodilator (BD) and 918 post-BD curves were constructed. The majority of the post-BD curves (93.1%) were of very good quality and achieved grade A (762 curves) or B (93 curves). The FEV1/FEV6 and FEV1/FVC ratios were highly correlated (r² = 0.92, P < 0.000). Two receiver operator characteristic curves were constructed in order to express the imbalance between the sensitivity and specificity of the FEV1/FEV6 ratio compared to two FEV1/FVC cut-off points for airway obstruction: equal to 70 (area under the curve = 0.98, P < 0.0001) and the LLN (area under the curve = 0.97, P < 0.0001), in the post-BD curves. According to an FEV1/FVC <0.70, the cut-off point for the FEV1/FEV6 ratio with the highest sum for sensitivity and specificity was 0.75. The FEV1/FEV6 ratio can be considered to be a good alternative to the FEV1/FVC ratio for the diagnosis of airway obstruction, both using a fixed cut-off point or below the LLN as reference. The FEV1/FEV6 ratio has the additional advantage of being an easier maneuver for the subjects and for the lung function technicians, providing a higher reproducibility than traditional spirometry maneuvers.

Epistolarum conscribendarum forma & ratio

Dedikaatio: Johannes Cajanus, Jacobus Frosterus, Laurentius Lithovius, Olaus Lauraeus, Jacobus Falander, Johannes Laibeck, Georgius Aenelius, Johannes Forsman, Abraham Falander, Johannes Argillander.

Spot urine porphyrins/creatinine ratio profile of healthy Brazilian individuals adjusted for personal habits

Changes in urinary porphyrin excretion may be the result of hereditary causes and/or from environmental or occupational exposure. The objective of this study was to measure the amount of some porphyrins in spot urine samples obtained from volunteers randomly selected from a healthy adult population of São Paulo with a sensitive HPLC method and to estimate normal ranges for a non-exposed population. Spot urine samples were collected from 126 subjects (both genders, 18 to 65 years old) not occupationally exposed to porphyrinogenic agents. Porphyrin fractions were separated on RP-18 HPLC column eluted with a methanol/ammonium acetate buffer gradient, pH 4.0, and measured fluorometrically (excitation 405 nm/emission 620 nm). The amount of porphyrins was corrected for urinary creatinine excretion. Only 8-carboxyl (uro) and 4-carboxyl (copro) porphyrins were quantified as µg/g creatinine. Data regarding age, gender, occupational activities, smoking and drinking habits were analyzed by Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Uroporphyrin results did not differ significantly between the subgroups studied. Copro and uro + copro porphyrins were significantly different for smokers (P = 0.008) and occupational activities (P = 0.004). With respect to alcohol consumption, only men drinking >20 g/week showed significant differences in the levels of copro (P = 0.022) and uro + copro porphyrins (P = 0.012). The 2.5-97.5th percentile limit values, excluding those for subjects with an alcohol drinking habit >20 g/week, were 0-20.8, 11.7-93.1, and 15.9-102.9 µg/g creatinine for uro, copro and uro + copro porphyrins, respectively. These percentile limit values can be proposed as a first attempt to provide urinary porphyrin reference values for our population, serving for an early diagnosis of porphyrinopathies or as biomarkers of exposure to porphyrinogenic agents.

A high-carbohydrate diet enhances the adverse effect of the S2 allele of APOC3 SstI polymorphism on the TG/HDL-C ratio only in young Chinese females

Both genetic background and diet have profound effects on plasma lipid profiles. We hypothesized that a high-carbohydrate (high-CHO) diet may affect the ratios of serum lipids and apolipoproteins (apo) differently in subjects with different genotypes of the SstI polymorphism in the apoCIII gene (APOC3). Fifty-six healthy university students (27 males and 29 females, 22.89 ± 1.80 years) were given a washout diet of 54% carbohydrate for 7 days, followed by a high-CHO diet of 70% carbohydrate for 6 days without total energy restriction. Serum triglyceride (TG), total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), apoB100, apoAI, and the APOC3 SstI polymorphism were analyzed. The ratios of serum lipids and apoB100/apoAI were calculated. At baseline, the TG/HDL-C ratio was significantly higher in females, but not in males, with the S2 allele. The differences in the TG/HDL-C ratio between genotypes remained the same after the washout and the high-CHO diet in females. When compared with those before the high-CHO diet, the TC/HDL-C (male S2 carriers: 3.13 ± 1.00 vs 2.36 ± 0.65, P = 0.000; male subjects with the S1S1 genotype: 2.97 ± 0.74 vs 2.09 ± 0.55, P = 0.000; female S2 carriers: 2.68 ± 0.36 vs 2.24 ± 0.37, P = 0.004; female subjects with the S1S1 genotype: 2.69 ± 0.41 vs 2.09 ± 0.31, P = 0.000) and LDL-C/HDL-C (male S2 carriers: 1.44 ± 0.71 vs 1.06 ± 0.26, P = 0.012; male subjects with the S1S1 genotype: 1.35 ± 0.61 vs 1.01 ± 0.29, P = 0.005; female S2 carriers: 1.18 ± 0.33 vs 1.00 ± 0.18, P = 0.049; female subjects with the S1S1 genotype: 1.18 ± 0.35 vs 1.04 ± 0.19, P = 0.026) ratios were significantly decreased after the high-CHO diet regardless of gender and of genotype of the APOC3 SstI polymorphism. However, in female S2 carriers, the TG/HDL-C (1.38 ± 0.46 vs 1.63 ± 0.70, P = 0.039) ratio was significantly increased after the high-CHO diet. In conclusion, the high-CHO diet has favorable effects on the TC/HDL-C and LDL-C/HDL-C ratios regardless of gender and of genotype of the APOC3 SstI polymorphism. Somehow, it enhanced the adverse effect of the S2 allele on the TG/HDL-C ratio only in females.

Photon Upconverting Nanophosphors: Unique Reporters for Optical Biosensing

Upconversion photoluminescence is a unique property of mostly certain inorganic materials, which are capable of converting low-energy infrared radiation into a higher-energy emission at visible wavelengths. This anti-Stokes shift enables luminescence detection without autofluorescence, which makes the upconverting materials a highly suitable reporter technology for optical biosensing applications. Furthermore, they exhibit long luminescence lifetime with narrow bandwidths also at the optical window of biomaterials enabling luminescence measurements in challenging sample matrices, such as whole blood. The aim of this thesis was to study the unique properties and the applicability of nano-sized upconverting phosphors (UCNPs) as reporters in biosensing applications. To render the inorganic nanophosphors water-dispersible and biocompatible, they were subjected to a series of surface modifications starting with silica-encapsulation and ending with a bioconjugation step with an analyte-recognizing biomolecule. The paramagnetism of the lanthanide dopants in the nanophosphors was exploited to develop a highly selective separation method for the UCNP-bioconjugates based on the magnetic selectivity of the high gradient magnetic separation (HGMS) system. The applicability of the nano-sized UCNPs as reporters in challenging sample matrices was demonstrated in two homogeneous sensing applications based on upconversion resonance energy transfer (UC-RET). A chemosensor for intracellular pH was developed exploiting UC-RET between the UCNP and a fluorogenic pH-sensitive dye with strongly increasing fluorescence intensity in decreasing pH. The pH-independent emission of the UCNPs at 550 nm was used for referencing. The applicability of the pH-nanosensor for intracellular pH measurement was tested in HeLa cells, and the acidic pH of endosomes could be detected with a confocal fluorescence microscope. Furthermore, a competitive UC-RET-based assay for red blood cell folic acid was developed for the measurement of folate directly from a whole blood sample. The optically transparent window of biomaterials was used in both the excitation and the measurement of the UC-RET sensitized emission of a near-infrared acceptor dye to minimize sample absorption, and the anti-Stokes detection completely eliminated the Stokes-shifted autofluorescence. The upconversion photoluminescence efficiency is known to be dependent on crystallite size, because the increasing surface-to-volume ratio of nano-sized UCNPs renders them more susceptible to quenching effects of the environment than their bulk counterpart. Water is known to efficiently quench the luminescence of lanthanide dopants. In this thesis, the quenching mechanism of water was studied using luminescence decay measurements. Water was found to quench the luminescence of UCNPs by increasing the non-radiative relaxation of the excited state of Yb3+ sensitizer ion, which had a very strong quenching effect on upconversion luminescence intensity.

Acid and salt uptake during the marinatig process of Engraulis anchoita fillets influence of the solution: fish ratio and agitation

The aims of this research were to determine the effect of different conditions of the marination stage on the salt and acid uptake, immersion time, and sensorial characteristics during the marinating process of anchovy (Engraulis anchoita). Different solution:fish ratios and the agitation effect during this stage were analyzed. The ratios used were: 0.77:1, 3:1 and 10:1 (with and without agitation). An increase of marinating solution:fish ratio causes a higher speed of acid and salt penetration The product obtained with the 10:1 ratio had a dry and fibrous texture and a slightly salty taste. Salt concentration was statistically significantly lower (p < 0.01) in the samples with agitation. Agitation did not influence the acid uptake, and the salt penetration speed decreased, but rancidity was detected in this product. The ratio 3:1 decreases the marinating time without damaging sensory attributes and can be used in the fish marinating process.

Influence of passion fruit albedo, citric acid, and the pulp/sugar ratio on the quality of banana preserves

The objective of this research was to evaluate the effect of the citric acid concentration, pulp/sugar ratio, and albedo concentration of the passion fruit peel on physical, physiochemical, and sensorial characteristics of the 'Silver' banana preserves. A 2³ factorial design and 3 repetitions in the central point were used. The albedo concentration between 0 and 3% had significant influence on the reduction of the reducing sugars and on the decrease in titratable acidity. The increase in the pulp/sugar ratio exerted a negative effect on the pH and positive on the titratable acidity; the acid addition reduced the non-reducing sugar level. The sensorial evaluation and purchase intention indicated that the incorporation of a maximum of 1.5% albedo in formulations containing 50% pulp and 0.5% citric acid resulted in products with good acceptability in comparison with the formulation in which 60% pulp and an absence of acid or albedo is utilized.

Chemical changes in biomass during torrefaction

Torrefaction is moderate thermal treatment (~200-300 °C) of biomass in an inert atmosphere. The torrefied fuel offers advantages to traditional biomass, such as higher heating value, reduced hydrophilic nature, increased its resistance to biological decay, and improved grindability. These factors could, for instance, lead to better handling and storage of biomass and increased use of biomass in pulverized combustors. In this work, we look at several aspects of changes in the biomass during torrefaction. We investigate the fate of carboxylic groups during torrefaction and its dependency to equilibrium moisture content. The changes in the wood components including carbohydrates, lignin, extractable materials and ashforming matters are also studied. And at last, the effect of K on torrefaction is investigated and then modeled. In biomass, carboxylic sites are partially responsible for its hydrophilic characteristic. These sites are degraded to varying extents during torrefaction. In this work, methylene blue sorption and potentiometric titration were applied to measure the concentration of carboxylic groups in torrefied spruce wood. The results from both methods were applicable and the values agreed well. A decrease in the equilibrium moisture content at different humidity was also measured for the torrefied wood samples, which is in good agreement with the decrease in carboxylic group contents. Thus, both methods offer a means of directly measuring the decomposition of carboxylic groups in biomass during torrefaction as a valuable parameter in evaluating the extent of torrefaction. This provides new information to the chemical changes occurring during torrefaction. The effect of torrefaction temperature on the chemistry of birch wood was investigated. The samples were from a pilot plant at Energy research Center of the Netherlands (ECN). And in that way they were representative of industrially produced samples. Sugar analysis was applied to analyze the hemicellulose and cellulose content during torrefaction. The results show a significant degradation of hemicellulose already at 240 °C, while cellulose degradation becomes significant above 270 °C torrefaction. Several methods including Klason lignin method, solid state NMR and Py-GC-MS analyses were applied to measure the changes in lignin during torrefaction. The changes in the ratio of phenyl, guaiacyl and syringyl units show that lignin degrades already at 240 °C to a small extent. To investigate the changes in the extractives from acetone extraction during torrefaction, gravimetric method, HP-SEC and GC-FID followed by GC-MS analysis were performed. The content of acetone-extractable material increases already at 240 °C torrefaction through the degradation of carbohydrate and lignin. The molecular weight of the acetone-extractable material decreases with increasing the torrefaction temperature. The formation of some valuable materials like syringaresinol or vanillin is also observed which is important from biorefinery perspective. To investigate the change in the chemical association of ash-forming elements in birch wood during torrefaction, chemical fractionation was performed on the original and torrefied birch samples. These results give a first understanding of the changes in the association of ashforming elements during torrefaction. The most significant changes can be seen in the distribution of calcium, magnesium and manganese, with some change in water solubility seen in potassium. These changes may in part be due to the destruction of carboxylic groups. In addition to some changes in water and acid solubility of phosphorous, a clear decrease in the concentration of both chlorine and sulfur was observed. This would be a significant additional benefit for the combustion of torrefied biomass. Another objective of this work is studying the impact of organically bound K, Na, Ca and Mn on mass loss of biomass during torrefaction. These elements were of interest because they have been shown to be catalytically active in solid fuels during pyrolysis and/or gasification. The biomasses were first acid washed to remove the ash-forming matters and then organic sites were doped with K, Na, Ca or Mn. The results show that K and Na bound to organic sites can significantly increase the mass loss during torrefaction. It is also seen that Mn bound to organic sites increases the mass loss and Ca addition does not influence the mass loss rate on torrefaction. This increase in mass loss during torrefaction with alkali addition is unlike what has been found in the case of pyrolysis where alkali addition resulted in a reduced mass loss. These results are important for the future operation of torrefaction plants, which will likely be designed to handle various biomasses with significantly different contents of K. The results imply that shorter retention times are possible for high K-containing biomasses. The mass loss of spruce wood with different content of K was modeled using a two-step reaction model based on four kinetic rate constants. The results show that it is possible to model the mass loss of spruce wood doped with different levels of K using the same activation energies but different pre-exponential factors for the rate constants. Three of the pre-exponential factors increased linearly with increasing K content, while one of the preexponential factors decreased with increasing K content. Therefore, a new torrefaction model was formulated using the hemicellulose and cellulose content and K content. The new torrefaction model was validated against the mass loss during the torrefaction of aspen, miscanthus, straw and bark. There is good agreement between the model and the experimental data for the other biomasses, except bark. For bark, the mass loss of acetone extractable material is also needed to be taken into account. The new model can describe the kinetics of mass loss during torrefaction of different types of biomass. This is important for considering fuel flexibility in torrefaction plants.

Failure modes of passive decay heat removing safety systems of modern nuclear power plants

The purpose of this master’s thesis is to gain an understanding of passive safety systems’ role in modern nuclear reactors projects and to research the failure modes of passive decay heat removal safety systems which use phenomenon of natural circulation. Another purpose is to identify the main physical principles and phenomena which are used to establish passive safety tools in nuclear power plants. The work describes passive decay heat removal systems used in AES-2006 project and focuses on the behavior of SPOT PG system. The descriptions of the main large-scale research facilities of the passive safety systems of the AES-2006 power plant are also included. The work contains the calculations of the SPOT PG system, which was modeled with thermal-hydraulic system code TRACE. The dimensions of the calculation model are set according to the dimensions of the real SPOT PG system. In these calculations three parameters are investigated as a function of decay heat power: the pressure of the system, the natural circulation mass flow rate around the closed loop, and the level of liquid in the downcomer. The purpose of the calculations is to test the ability of the SPOT PG system to remove the decay heat from the primary side of the nuclear reactor in case of failure of one, two, or three loops out of four. The calculations show that three loops of the SPOT PG system have adequate capacity to provide the necessary level of safety. In conclusion, the work supports the view that passive systems could be widely spread in modern nuclear projects.

Sexual selections in the northern fall field cricket, Gryllus pennsylvanicus: a manipulation of the adult sex ratio

The operational sex ratio has long been considered an important constraint on the structure of mating systems. The effects of an experimentally manipulated sex ratio on mating behavior and selection were investigated in a polygynous species, Gryllus pennsylvanicus, where the potential exists for spatial/temporal fluctuations in sex ratio of field populations. Four different sex ratios (males: females, 5:0, 5:2, 5:5, 5:10) were investigated. Observations were conducted in late summer over two field seasons, from 2400 h , to 1000 h EST. Several male characters thought to be associated with male reproduc.tive success were studied: calling duration, searching distance, weight, fighting behavior, courtship frequency, and mating success. Variance in male mating success was used as the indicator for the opportunity for sexual selection. Total selection was estimated as the univariate regression coefficient between relative fitness and the character of interest, while direct selection was estimated as standardized partial regression coefficients generated from a multiple regression of relative fitness on each character. The opportunity for sexual selection was highest at 5:2 and lowest at 5:10. The frequency of fighting behavior was highest at 5:2 and 5:5. Fighting ability (% wins) was determined to be an important correlate of male body weight. Direct selection for increased male body weight was detected at 5:2, while total selection for body weight was seen at 5:5. Selection on male body weight was not detected at 5: 10. Calling duration decreased as sex ratio became more female-biased. Total and direct selection were detected for increased calling at 5:2, only total selection for calling was seen at 5:5, whereas direct selection against calling was detected at 5: 10. Searching distance also decreased as sex ratio became more female-biased, however no form of selection was detected for searching at any of the sex ratios. Data are discussed in terms of sexual selection on male reproductive tactics, the mating system and maintenance of genetic variation in male reproductive behavior.