Development and evaluation of neural network freeway incident detection models using field data

This paper discusses a multi-layer feedforward (MLF) neural network incident detection model that was developed and evaluated using field data. In contrast to published neural network incident detection models which relied on simulated or limited field data for model development and testing, the model described in this paper was trained and tested on a real-world data set of 100 incidents. The model uses speed, flow and occupancy data measured at dual stations, averaged across all lanes and only from time interval t. The off-line performance of the model is reported under both incident and non-incident conditions. The incident detection performance of the model is reported based on a validation-test data set of 40 incidents that were independent of the 60 incidents used for training. The false alarm rates of the model are evaluated based on non-incident data that were collected from a freeway section which was video-taped for a period of 33 days. A comparative evaluation between the neural network model and the incident detection model in operation on Melbourne's freeways is also presented. The results of the comparative performance evaluation clearly demonstrate the substantial improvement in incident detection performance obtained by the neural network model. The paper also presents additional results that demonstrate how improvements in model performance can be achieved using variable decision thresholds. Finally, the model's fault-tolerance under conditions of corrupt or missing data is investigated and the impact of loop detector failure/malfunction on the performance of the trained model is evaluated and discussed. The results presented in this paper provide a comprehensive evaluation of the developed model and confirm that neural network models can provide fast and reliable incident detection on freeways. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of multifrequency bioelectrical impedance data for predicting lean tissue mass in beef cattle

Multifrequency bioimpedance analysis has the potential to provide a non-invasive technique for determining body composition in live cattle. A bioimpedance meter developed for use in clinical medicine was adapted and evaluated in 2 experiments using a total of 31 cattle. Prediction equations were obtained for total body water, extracellular body water, intracellular body water, carcass water and carcass protein. There were strong correlations between the results obtained through chemical markers and bioimpedance analysis when determined in cattle that had a wide range of liveweights and conditions. The r(2) values obtained were 0.87 and 0.91 for total body water and extracellular body water respectively. Bioimpedance also correlated with carcass water, measured by chemical analysis (r(2) = 0.72), but less well with carcass protein (r(2) = 0.46). These correlations were improved by inclusion of liveweight and sex as variables in multiple regression analysis. However, the resultant equations were poor predictors of protein and water content in the carcasses of a group of small underfed beef cattle, that had a narrow range of liveweights. In this case, although there was no statistical difference between the predicted and measured values overall, bioimpedance analysis did not detect the differences in carcass protein between the 2 groups that were apparent following chemical analysis. Further work is required to determine the sensitivity of the technique in small underfed cattle, and its potential use in heavier well fed cattle close to slaughter weight.

Prediction of the chemical composition of lamb carcasses from multi-frequency impedance data

Multi-frequency bioimpedance analysis (MFBIA) was used to determine the impedance, reactance and resistance of 103 lamb carcasses (17.1-34.2 kg) immediately after slaughter and evisceration. Carcasses were halved, frozen and one half subsequently homogenized and analysed for water, crude protein and fat content. Three measures of carcass length were obtained. Diagonal length between the electrodes (right side biceps femoris to left side of neck) explained a greater proportion of the variance in water mass than did estimates of spinal length and was selected for use in the index L-2/Z to predict the mass of chemical components in the carcass. Use of impedance (Z) measured at the characteristic frequency (Z(c)) instead of 50 kHz (Z(50)) did not improve the power of the model to predict the mass of water, protein or fat in the carcass. While L-2/Z(50) explained a significant proportion of variation in the masses of body water (r(2) 0.64), protein (r(2) 0.34) and fat (r(2) 0.35), its inclusion in multi-variate indices offered small or no increases in predictive capacity when hot carcass weight (HCW) and a measure of rib fat-depth (GR) were present in the model. Optimized equations were able to account for 65-90 % of the variance observed in the weight of chemical components in the carcass. It is concluded that single frequency impedance data do not provide better prediction of carcass composition than can be obtained from measures of HCW and GR. Indices of intracellular water mass derived from impedance at zero frequency and the characteristic frequency explained a similar proportion of the variance in carcass protein mass as did the index L-2/Z(50).

Jobless - Unemployment and young people's health

Morrell, Taylor and Kerr, from the University of Sydney's Department of Public Health, review the evidence of an association between unemployment and psychological and physical ill-health in young people aged 15-24 years. Aggregate data show youth unemployment and youth suicide to be strongly associated Youth unemployment is also associated with psychological symptoms, such as depression and loss of confidence. Effects on physical health have been less extensively studied; however, there is some evidence for an association with raised blood pressure. Finally, the prevalence of lifestyle risk factors (cannabis use and, less consistently tobacco and alcohol consumption) is higher in unemployed compared with employed young people.

Changes in estimated coronary risk in the 1980s: data from 38 populations in the WHO MONICA Project

The World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project is a 10-year study monitoring trends and determinants of cardiovascular disease in geographically defined populations. Data were collected from over 100 000 randomly selected participants in two risk factor surveys conducted approximately 5 years apart in 38 populations using standardized protocols. The net effects of changes in the risk factor levels were estimated using risk scores derived from longitudinal studies in the Nordic countries. The prevalence of cigarette smoking decreased among men in most populations, but the trends for women varied. The prevalence of hypertension declined in two-thirds of the populations. Changes in the prevalence of raised total cholesterol were small but highly correlated between the genders (r = 0.8). The prevalence of obesity increased in three-quarters of the populations for men and in more than half of the populations for women. In almost half of the populations there were statistically significant declines in the estimated coronary risk for both men and women, although for Beijing the risk score increased significantly for both genders. The net effect of the changes in the risk factor levels in the 1980s in most of the study populations of the WHO MONICA Project is that the rates of coronary disease are predicted to decline in the 1990s.

Data analysis in multiple-frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis

The performance of three analytical methods for multiple-frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis (MFBIA) data was assessed. The methods were the established method of Cole and Cole, the newly proposed method of Siconolfi and co-workers and a modification of this procedure. Method performance was assessed from the adequacy of the curve fitting techniques, as judged by the correlation coefficient and standard error of the estimate, and the accuracy of the different methods in determining the theoretical values of impedance parameters describing a set of model electrical circuits. The experimental data were well fitted by all curve-fitting procedures (r = 0.9 with SEE 0.3 to 3.5% or better for most circuit-procedure combinations). Cole-Cole modelling provided the most accurate estimates of circuit impedance values, generally within 1-2% of the theoretical values, followed by the Siconolfi procedure using a sixth-order polynomial regression (1-6% variation). None of the methods, however, accurately estimated circuit parameters when the measured impedances were low (<20 Omega) reflecting the electronic limits of the impedance meter used. These data suggest that Cole-Cole modelling remains the preferred method for the analysis of MFBIA data.

Data partitioning for parallel spatial join processing

The cost of spatial join processing can be very high because of the large sizes of spatial objects and the computation-intensive spatial operations. While parallel processing seems a natural solution to this problem, it is not clear how spatial data can be partitioned for this purpose. Various spatial data partitioning methods are examined in this paper. A framework combining the data-partitioning techniques used by most parallel join algorithms in relational databases and the filter-and-refine strategy for spatial operation processing is proposed for parallel spatial join processing. Object duplication caused by multi-assignment in spatial data partitioning can result in extra CPU cost as well as extra communication cost. We find that the key to overcome this problem is to preserve spatial locality in task decomposition. We show in this paper that a near-optimal speedup can be achieved for parallel spatial join processing using our new algorithms.

Observations of QSO J2233-606 in the Southern Hubble Deep Field

The Hubble Deep Field South (HDF-S) Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations are expected to begin in 1998 October. We present a composite spectrum of the QSO in the HDF-S held covering UV/optical/near-IR wavelengths, obtained by combining data from the Australian National University 2.3 m telescope with STIS on the HST.(1) This intermediate-resolution spectrum covers the range 1600-10000 Angstrom and allows us to derive some basic information on the intervening absorption systems which will be important in planning future higher resolution studies of this QSO. The QSO J2233 - 606 coordinates are alpha = 22(h)33(m)37(s).6, delta = -60 degrees 33'29 (J2000), the magnitude is B = 17.5, and its redshift is z(em) = 2.238, derived by simultaneously fitting several emission lines. The spectral index is alpha = -0.7 +/- 0.1, measured between the Ly alpha and Mg II emission lines. Many absorption systems are present, including systems with metal lines redward of the Ly alpha emission line at z(abs) 2.204, 1.942, 1.870, 1.787 and a few very strong Ly alpha features at z(abs) = 2.077, 1.928, without similarly strong metal lines. There is a conspicuous Lyman limit (LL) absorption system that is most likely associated with the z(abs) = 1.942 system with a neutral hydrogen column density of N-HI = (3.1 +/- 1.0) x 10(17) cm(-2). There is some evidence for the presence of a second LL absorber just to the blue of the conspicuous system at z = 1.870. We have employed a new technique, based on an analysis of the shape of the observed spectrum in the region of the LL absorption, to explore the properties of the gas. We tentatively conclude that this system might have suitable characteristics for measuring the deuterium-to-hydrogen (D/H) ratio.

Heart rate, blood lactate and kinematic data of elite colts (under-19) rugby union players during competition

Physiological and kinematic data were collected from elite under-19 rugby union players to provide a greater understanding of the physical demands of rugby union. Heart rate, blood lactate and time-motion analysis data were collected from 24 players (mean +/- s((x) over bar): body mass 88.7 +/- 9.9 kg, height 185 +/- 7 cm, age 18.4 +/- 0.5 years) during six competitive premiership fixtures. Six players were chosen at random from each of four groups: props and locks, back row forwards, inside backs, outside backs. Heart rate records were classified based on percent time spent in four zones (>95%, 85-95%, 75-84%, <75% HRmax). Blood lactate concentration was measured periodically throughout each match, with movements being classified as standing, walking, jogging, cruising, sprinting, utility, rucking/mauling and scrummaging. The heart rate data indicated that props and locks (58.4%) and back row forwards (56.2%) spent significantly more time in high exertion (85-95% HRmax) than inside backs (40.5%) and outside backs (33.9%) (P < 0.001). Inside backs (36.5%) and outside backs (38.5%) spent significantly more time in moderate exertion (75-84% HRmax) than props and locks (22.6%) and back row forwards (19.8%) (P < 0.05). Outside backs (20.1%) spent significantly more time in low exertion (< 75% HRmax) than props and locks (5.8%) and back row forwards (5.6%) (P < 0.05). Mean blood lactate concentration did not differ significantly between groups (range: 4.67 mmol.l(-1) for outside backs to 7.22 mmol.l(-1) for back row forwards; P < 0.05). The motion analysis data indicated that outside backs (5750 m) covered a significantly greater total distance than either props and locks or back row forwards (4400 and 4080 m, respectively; P < 0.05). Inside backs and outside backs covered significantly greater distances walking (1740 and 1780 m, respectively; P < 0.001), in utility movements (417 and 475 m, respectively; P < 0.001) and sprinting (208 and 340 m, respectively; P < 0.001) than either props and locks or back row forwards (walking: 1000 and 991 m; utility movements: 106 and 154 m; sprinting: 72 and 94 m, respectively). Outside backs covered a significantly greater distance sprinting than inside backs (208 and 340 m, respectively; P < 0.001). Forwards maintained a higher level of exertion than backs, due to more constant motion and a large involvement in static high-intensity activities. A mean blood lactate concentration of 4.8-7.2 mmol.l(-1) indicated a need for 'lactate tolerance' training to improve hydrogen ion buffering and facilitate removal following high-intensity efforts. Furthermore, the large distances (4.2-5.6 km) covered during, and intermittent nature of, match-play indicated a need for sound aerobic conditioning in all groups (particularly backs) to minimize fatigue and facilitate recovery between high-intensity efforts.

Cohort trends in age of initiation to heroin use

This paper examines gender differences and trends over time in the age of initiation to heroin use. Data from two large surveys: the Sydney component of the ANAIDUS, conducted in 1989, and the ASHIDU, conducted in 1994, were used to examine this issue. Together, these studies contained information on 1,292 individuals who identified themselves as heroin users. Results indicated that, while there were no significant gender differences in age of initiation to heroin use, there was a significant (p < 0.001) time trend in the mean age at which heroin was first used. Specifically, the mean age of first heroin use among individuals born during the interval 1940-1949 was 20.5 years while among those born during 1970-1979 the mean age of first heroin use was 16.5 years. These findings were confirmed by analyses of the National Household Survey. Further analysis of the ASHIDU data indicated that younger age of initiation to heroin use was associated with polydrug use, overdose and crime after the effects of duration of heroin use had been statistically controlled. These findings suggest that there has been both an increase in the willingness of young people to experiment with heroin and an increased availability of the drug over this time. In combination with evidence that there has been an increase in the amount of heroin being imported into Australia, and an increased demand for treatment for opiate dependence, these data suggest that Australia is experiencing an increase in the use of heroin, particularly among youth.

A framework for selecting appropriate remotely sensed data dimensions for environmental monitoring and management

Two major factors are likely to impact the utilisation of remotely sensed data in the near future: (1)an increase in the number and availability of commercial and non-commercial image data sets with a range of spatial, spectral and temporal dimensions, and (2) increased access to image display and analysis software through GIS. A framework was developed to provide an objective approach to selecting remotely sensed data sets for specific environmental monitoring problems. Preliminary applications of the framework have provided successful approaches for monitoring disturbed and restored wetlands in southern California.

Flush air data system calibration using numerical simulation

The use of computational fluid dynamics simulations for calibrating a flush air data system is described, In particular, the flush air data system of the HYFLEX hypersonic vehicle is used as a case study. The HYFLEX air data system consists of nine pressure ports located flush with the vehicle nose surface, connected to onboard pressure transducers, After appropriate processing, surface pressure measurements can he converted into useful air data parameters. The processing algorithm requires an accurate pressure model, which relates air data parameters to the measured pressures. In the past, such pressure models have been calibrated using combinations of flight data, ground-based experimental results, and numerical simulation. We perform a calibration of the HYFLEX flush air data system using computational fluid dynamics simulations exclusively, The simulations are used to build an empirical pressure model that accurately describes the HYFLEX nose pressure distribution ol cr a range of flight conditions. We believe that computational fluid dynamics provides a quick and inexpensive way to calibrate the air data system and is applicable to a broad range of flight conditions, When tested with HYFLEX flight data, the calibrated system is found to work well. It predicts vehicle angle of attack and angle of sideslip to accuracy levels that generally satisfy flight control requirements. Dynamic pressure is predicted to within the resolution of the onboard inertial measurement unit. We find that wind-tunnel experiments and flight data are not necessary to accurately calibrate the HYFLEX flush air data system for hypersonic flight.