Formation of Exchange Rates on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling

Galina Kovaleva. The Formation of the Exchange Rate on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling. The Russian financial market is fast becoming one of the major sectors of the Russian economy. Assets have been increasing steadily, while new market segments and new financial market instruments have emerged. Kovaleva attempted to isolate the factors influencing exchange rates, determine patterns in the dynamic changes to the rouble/dollar exchange rate, construct models of the processes, and on the basis of these activities make forecasts. She studied the significance of economic indicators influencing the rouble/dollar exchange rate at different times, and developed multi-factor econometric models. In order to reveal the inner structure of the financial indicators and to work out ex-post forecasts for different time intervals, she carried out a series of calculations with the aim of constructing trend-cyclical (TC) and harmonic models, and Box and Jenkins models. She found that: 1. The Russian financial market is dependant on the rouble/dollar exchange rate. Its dynamics are formed under the influence of the short-term state treasury notes and government bonds markets, interbank loans, the rouble/DM exchange rate, the inflation rate, and the DM/dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate is influenced by sales on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange and the mechanism of those sales. 2. The TC model makes it possible to conduct an in-depth study of the structure of the processes and to make forecasts of the dynamic changes to currency indicators. 3. The Russian market is increasingly influenced by the world currency market and its prospects are of crucial interest for the world financial community.

Quantification of atelectatic lung volumes in two different porcine models of ARDS

BACKGROUND: Cyclic recruitment during mechanical ventilation contributes to ventilator associated lung injury. Two different pathomechanisms in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) are currently discussed: alveolar collapse vs persistent flooding of small airways and alveoli. We compare two different ARDS animal models by computed tomography (CT) to describe different recruitment and derecruitment mechanisms at different airway pressures: (i) lavage-ARDS, favouring alveolar collapse by surfactant depletion; and (ii) oleic acid ARDS, favouring alveolar flooding by capillary leakage. METHODS: In 12 pigs [25 (1) kg], ARDS was randomly induced, either by saline lung lavage or oleic acid (OA) injection, and 3 animals served as controls. A respiratory breathhold manoeuvre without spontaneous breathing at different continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) was applied in random order (CPAP levels of 5, 10, 15, 30, 35 and 50 cm H(2)O) and spiral-CT scans of the total lung were acquired at each CPAP level (slice thickness=1 mm). In each spiral-CT the volume of total lung parenchyma, tissue, gas, non-aerated, well-aerated, poorly aerated, and over-aerated lung was calculated. RESULTS: In both ARDS models non-aerated lung volume decreased significantly from CPAP 5 to CPAP 50 [oleic acid lung injury (OAI): 346.9 (80.1) to 96.4 (48.8) ml, P<0.001; lavage-ARDS: 245 17.6) to 42.7 (4.8) ml, P<0.001]. In lavage-ARDS poorly aerated lung volume decreased at higher CPAP levels [232 (45.2) at CPAP 10 to 84 (19.4) ml at CPAP 50, P<0.001] whereas in OAI poorly aerated lung volume did not vary at different airway pressures. CONCLUSIONS: In both ARDS models well-aerated and non-aerated lung volume respond to different CPAP levels in a comparable fashion: Thus, a cyclical alveolar collapse seems to be part of the derecruitment process also in the OA-ARDS. In OA-ARDS, the increase in poorly aerated lung volume reflects the specific initial lesion, that is capillary leakage with interstitial and alveolar oedema.

Maintenance of end-expiratory recruitment with increased respiratory rate after saline-lavage lung injury

Cyclical recruitment of atelectasis with each breath is thought to contribute to ventilator-associated lung injury. Extrinsic positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEPe) can maintain alveolar recruitment at end exhalation, but PEEPe depresses cardiac output and increases overdistension. Short exhalation times can also maintain end-expiratory recruitment, but if the mechanism of this recruitment is generation of intrinsic PEEP (PEEPi), there would be little advantage compared with PEEPe. In seven New Zealand White rabbits, we compared recruitment from increased respiratory rate (RR) to recruitment from increased PEEPe after saline lavage. Rabbits were ventilated in pressure control mode with a fraction of inspired O(2) (Fi(O(2))) of 1.0, inspiratory-to-expiratory ratio of 2:1, and plateau pressure of 28 cmH(2)O, and either 1) high RR (24) and low PEEPe (3.5) or 2) low RR (7) and high PEEPe (14). We assessed cyclical lung recruitment with a fast arterial Po(2) probe, and we assessed average recruitment with blood gas data. We measured PEEPi, cardiac output, and mixed venous saturation at each ventilator setting. Recruitment achieved by increased RR and short exhalation time was nearly equivalent to recruitment achieved by increased PEEPe. The short exhalation time at increased RR, however, did not generate PEEPi. Cardiac output was increased on average 13% in the high RR group compared with the high PEEPe group (P < 0.001), and mixed venous saturation was consistently greater in the high RR group (P < 0.001). Prevention of end-expiratory derecruitment without increased end-expiratory pressure suggests that another mechanism, distinct from intrinsic PEEP, plays a role in the dynamic behavior of atelectasis.

Glucocorticosteroid-induced spinal osteoporosis: scientific update on pathophysiology and treatment

Glucocorticosteroid-induced spinal osteoporosis (GIOP) is the most frequent of all secondary types of osteoporosis. The understanding of the pathophysiology of glucocorticoid (GC) induced bone loss is of crucial importance for appropriate treatment and prevention of debilitating fractures that occur predominantly in the spine. GIOP results from depressed bone formation due to lower activity and higher death rate of osteoblasts on the one hand, and from increase bone resorption due to prolonged lifespan of osteoclasts on the other. In addition, calcium/phosphate metabolism may be disturbed through GC effects on gut, kidney, parathyroid glands and gonads. Therefore, therapeutic agents aim at restoring balanced bone cell activity by directly decreasing apoptosis rate of osteoblasts (e.g., cyclical parathyroid hormone) or by increasing apoptosis rate of osteoclasts (e.g., bisphosphonates). Other therapeutical efforts aim at maintaining/restoring calcium/phosphate homeostasis: improving intestinal calcium absorption (using calcium supplementation, vitamin D and derivates) and avoiding increased urinary calcium loss (using thiazides) prevent or counteract a secondary hyperparthyroidism. Bisphosphonates, particularly the aminobisphosphonates risedronate and alendronate, have been shown to protect patients on GCs from (further) bone loss to reduce vertebral fracture risk. Calcitonin may be of interest in situation where bisphosphonates are contraindicated or not applicable and in cases where acute pain due to vertebral fracture has to be manage. The intermittent administration of 1-34-parathormone may be an appealing treatment alternative, based on its documented anabolic effects on bone resulting from the reduction of osteoblastic apoptosis. Calcium and vitamin D should be a systematic adjunctive measure to any drug treatment for GIOP. Based on currently available evidence, fluoride, androgens, estrogens (opposed or unopposed) cannot be recommended for the prevention and treatment of GIOP. However, substitution of gonadal hormones may be indicated if GC-induced hypogonadism is present and leads to clinical symptoms. Data using the SERM raloxifene to treat or prevent GIOP are lacking, as are data using the promising bone anabolic agent strontium ranelate. Kyphoplasty performed in appropriately selected osteoporotic patients with painful vertebral fractures is a promising addition to current medical treatment.

EPA's Council for Regulatory Environmental Modeling : a case study of science policy implementation

As environmental problems became more complex, policy and regulatory decisions become far more difficult to make. The use of science has become an important practice in the decision making process of many federal agencies. Many different types of scientific information are used to make decisions within the EPA, with computer models becoming especially important. Environmental models are used throughout the EPA in a variety of contexts and their predictive capacity has become highly valued in decision making. The main focus of this research is to examine the EPA’s Council for Regulatory Modeling (CREM) as a case study in addressing science issues, particularly models, in government agencies. Specifically, the goal was to answer the following questions: What is the history of the CREM and how can this information shed light on the process of science policy implementation? What were the goals of implementing the CREM? Were these goals reached and how have they changed? What have been the impediments that the CREM has faced and why did these impediments occur? The three main sources of information for this research came from observations during summer employment with the CREM, document review and supplemental interviews with CREM participants and other members of the modeling community. Examining a history of modeling at the EPA, as well as a history of the CREM, provides insight into the many challenges that are faced when implementing science policy and science policy programs. After examining the many impediments that the CREM has faced in implementing modeling policies, it was clear that the impediments fall into two separate categories, classic and paradoxical. The classic impediments include the more standard impediments to science policy implementation that might be found in any regulatory environment, such as lack of resources and changes in administration. Paradoxical impediments are cyclical in nature, with no clear solution, such as balancing top-down versus bottom-up initiatives and coping with differing perceptions. These impediments, when not properly addressed, severely hinder the ability for organizations to successfully implement science policy.

STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELING AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: TOOLS FOR FUTURE CO-DEVELOPMENT OF MADAGASCAR’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND PEOPLE

Madagascar’s terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have long supported a unique set of ecological communities, many of whom are endemic to the tropical island. Those same ecosystems have been a source of valuable natural resources to some of the poorest people in the world. Nevertheless, with pride, ingenuity and resourcefulness, the Malagasy people of the southwest coast, being of Vezo identity, subsist with low development fishing techniques aimed at an increasingly threatened host of aquatic seascapes. Mangroves, sea grass bed, and coral reefs of the region are under increased pressure from the general populace for both food provisions and support of economic opportunity. Besides purveyors and extractors, the coastal waters are also subject to a number of natural stressors, including cyclones and invasive, predator species of both flora and fauna. In addition, the aquatic ecosystems of the region are undergoing increased nutrient and sediment runoff due, in part, to Madagascar’s heavy reliance on land for agricultural purposes (Scales, 2011). Moreover, its coastal waters, like so many throughout the world, have been proven to be warming at an alarming rate over the past few decades. In recognizing the intimate interconnectedness of the both the social and ecological systems, conservation organizations have invoked a host of complimentary conservation and social development efforts with the dual aim of preserving or restoring the health of both the coastal ecosystems and the people of the region. This paper provides a way of thinking more holistically about the social-ecological system within a resiliency frame of understanding. Secondly, it applies a platform known as state-and-transition modeling to give form to the process. State-and-transition modeling is an iterative investigation into the physical makeup of a system of study as well as the boundaries and influences on that state, and has been used in restorative ecology for more than a decade. Lastly, that model is sited within an adaptive management scheme that provides a structured, cyclical, objective-oriented process for testing stakeholders cognitive understanding of the ecosystem through a pragmatic implementation and monitoring a host of small-scale interventions developed as part of the adaptive management process. Throughout, evidence of the application of the theories and frameworks are offered, with every effort made to retool conservation-minded development practitioners with a comprehensive strategy for addressing the increasingly fragile social-ecological systems of southwest Madagascar. It is offered, in conclusion, that the seascapes of the region would be an excellent case study worthy of future application of state-and-transition modeling and adaptive management as frameworks for conservation-minded development practitioners whose multiple projects, each with its own objective, have been implemented with a single goal in mind: preserve and protect the state of the supporting environment while providing for the basic needs of the local Malagasy people.

Targeting vessels to treat hepatocellular carcinoma

The process of blood vessel proliferation, known as angiogenesis, is essential during embryonic development and organogenesis. In adult life, it participates in normal tissue repair, wound healing, and cyclical growth of the corpus luteum and the endometrium. Crucial as it is, angiogenesis can become pathological, and abnormal angiogenesis contributes to the pathogenesis of inflammatory and neoplasic diseases. The present review highlights the evidence for the role of angiogenesis in HCC (hepatocellular carcinoma) and discusses the increasing importance of inhibitors of angiogenesis in HCC therapy.

Considering the Consequences of Child Welfare Service Decisions

The following commentary serves as a response to the article, “That Wall is Around My Heart,” underscoring the importance of decision making in child welfare services. The commentary supports the need for child welfare systems to carefully consider the long-term consequences of various service intervention strategies. Child welfare systems must attend to both the internal external elements of safety, giving special attention to the emotional trauma of child maltreatment and the trauma resulting from removal and placement in alternative care. The commentary supports the need for child welfare systems to provide effective interventions that prevent and respond to child abuse and neglect, as well as break the cyclical nature of child maltreatment, helping ensure the safety of children and families for future generations.

The Emergence of Partnership Networks in the Enterprise Application Development Industry - A Global Corporation Perspective

Currently, dramatic changes are happening in the IS development industry. The incumbent system developers (hubs) are embracing partnerships with less well established companies (spokes), acting in specific niches. This paper seeks to establish a better understanding of the motives for this strategy. Relying on existing work on strategic alliance formation, it is argued that partnering is particularly attractive, if these small companies possess certain capabilities that are difficult to obtain through other arrangements than partnering. Again drawing on the literature, three categories of capabilities are identified: the capability to innovate within their niche, the capability to provide a specific functionality that can be integrated with the incumbents’ systems, and the capability to address novel markets. These factors are analyzed through a case study. The case represents a market leader in the global IS development industry, which fosters a network of smaller partner firms. The study reveals that temporal dynamics between the identified factors are playing a dominant role in these networks. A cyclical partnership model is developed that attempts to explain the life cycle of a partnership within such a network.

Cardiopulmonary performance testing using a robotics-assisted tilt table: Feasibility assessment in able-bodied subjects

BACKGROUND: Robotics-assisted tilt table technology was introduced for early rehabilitation of neurological patients. It provides cyclical stepping movement and physiological loading of the legs. The aim of the present study was to assess the feasibility of this type of device for peak cardiopulmonary performance testing using able-bodied subjects. METHODS: A robotics-assisted tilt table was augmented with force sensors in the thigh cuffs and a work rate estimation algorithm. A custom visual feedback system was employed to guide the subjects' work rate and to provide real time feedback of actual work rate. Feasibility assessment focused on: (i) implementation (technical feasibility), and (ii) responsiveness (was there a measurable, high-level cardiopulmonary reaction?). For responsiveness testing, each subject carried out an incremental exercise test to the limit of functional capacity with a work rate increment of 5 W/min in female subjects and 8 W/min in males. RESULTS: 11 able-bodied subjects were included (9 male, 2 female; age 29.6 ± 7.1 years: mean ± SD). Resting oxygen uptake (O_{2}) was 4.6 ± 0.7 mL/min/kg and O_{2}peak was 32.4 ± 5.1 mL/min/kg; this mean O_{2}peak was 81.1% of the predicted peak value for cycle ergometry. Peak heart rate (HRpeak) was 177.5 ± 9.7 beats/min; all subjects reached at least 85% of their predicted HRpeak value. Respiratory exchange ratio (RER) at O_{2}peak was 1.02 ± 0.07. Peak work rate) was 61.3 ± 15.1 W. All subjects reported a Borg CR10 value for exertion and leg fatigue of 7 or more. CONCLUSIONS: The robotics-assisted tilt table is deemed feasible for peak cardiopulmonary performance testing: the approach was found to be technically implementable and substantial cardiopulmonary responses were observed. Further testing in neurologically-impaired subjects is warranted.

Anatomy, biology, physiology and basic pathology of the nail organ

The nail is the largest skin appendage. It grows continuously through life in a non-cyclical manner; its growth is not hormone-dependent. The nail of the middle finger of the dominant hand grows fastest with approximately 0.1 mm/day, whereas the big toe nail grows only 0.03-0.05 mm/d. The nails' size and shape vary characteristically from finger to finger and from toe to toe, for which the size and shape of the bone of the terminal phalanx is responsible. The nail apparatus consists of both epithelial and connective tissue components. The matrix epithelium is responsible for the production of the nail plate whereas the nail bed epithelium mediates firm attachment. The hyponychium is a specialized structure sealing the subungual space and allowing the nail plate to physiologically detach from the nail bed. The proximal nail fold covers most of the matrix. Its free end forms the cuticle which seals the nail pocket or cul-de-sac. The dermis of the matrix and nail bed is specialized with a morphogenetic potency. The proximal and lateral nail folds form a frame on three sides giving the nail stability and allowing it to grow out. The nail protects the distal phalanx, is an extremely versatile tool for defense and dexterity and increases the sensitivity of the tip of the finger. Nail apparatus, finger tip, tendons and ligaments of the distal interphalangeal joint form a functional unit and cannot be seen independently. The nail organ has only a certain number of reaction patterns that differ in many respects from hairy and palmoplantar skin.

Comparative assessment of a canine-specific medium to support colony formation from canine hair follicular keratinocytes.

BACKGROUND Follicular stem cells and their progeny are responsible for the cyclical renewal of hair follicles and maintenance of the hair coat. The understanding of pathways involved in this process is essential to elucidate the pathogenetic mechanisms of primary alopecia. Stem cells and their direct descendants are located in the bulge region of the isthmus of hair follicles. Although these cells have been studied extensively in mice and humans, data for canine isthmic keratinocyte activation and proliferation are not available. HYPOTHESIS/OBJECTIVES The aim was to establish an accurate and reliable in vitro system to study the growth potential of canine isthmic keratinocytes. We assessed the colony-promoting capability of a commercially available canine-specific medium, CELLnTEC (CnT-09), compared with a well-established home-made medium, complete FAD (cFAD). The CnT-09 medium is specific for the growth of canine keratinocytes, while the cFAD medium can support growth and colony formation of keratinocytes from several species. ANIMALS Skin biopsies were obtained from 15 recently euthanized dogs of various breeds with no skin abnormalities. METHODS The isthmic region of compound hair follicles was isolated by microdissection and cell growth monitored using several parameters with colony-forming assays. RESULTS The CnT-09 and cFAD media provided similar growth as measured by the total number and size of colonies, as well as rate of cell differentiation. CONCLUSIONS The commercial canine-specific CnT-09 medium was comparable to the home-made cFAD medium in supporting the growth and proliferation of canine follicular keratinocytes in vitro. The CnT-09 medium should be a viable alternative growth medium for molecular studies of alopecic disorders in dogs.

Comparison of peak cardiopulmonary performance parameters on a robotics-assisted tilt table, a cycle and a treadmill

Robotics-assisted tilt table (RATT) technology provides body support, cyclical stepping movement and physiological loading. This technology can potentially be used to facilitate the estimation of peak cardiopulmonary performance parameters in patients who have neurological or other problems that may preclude testing on a treadmill or cycle ergometer. The aim of the study was to compare the magnitude of peak cardiopulmonary performance parameters including peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak) and peak heart rate (HRpeak) obtained from a robotics-assisted tilt table (RATT), a cycle ergometer and a treadmill. The strength of correlations between the three devices, test-retest reliability and repeatability were also assessed. Eighteen healthy subjects performed six maximal exercise tests, with two tests on each of the three exercise modalities. Data from the second tests were used for the comparative and correlation analyses. For nine subjects, test-retest reliability and repeatability of VO2peak and HRpeak were assessed. Absolute VO2peak from the RATT, the cycle ergometer and the treadmill was (mean (SD)) 2.2 (0.56), 2.8 (0.80) and 3.2 (0.87) L/min, respectively (p < 0.001). HRpeak from the RATT, the cycle ergometer and the treadmill was 168 (9.5), 179 (7.9) and 184 (6.9) beats/min, respectively (p < 0.001). VO2peak and HRpeak from the RATT vs the cycle ergometer and the RATT vs the treadmill showed strong correlations. Test-retest reliability and repeatability were high for VO2peak and HRpeak for all devices. The results demonstrate that the RATT is a valid and reliable device for exercise testing. There is potential for the RATT to be used in severely impaired subjects who cannot use the standard modalities.

Submaximal cardiopulmonary thresholds on a robotics-assisted tilt table, a cycle and a treadmill: a comparative analysis

BACKGROUND: The robotics-assisted tilt table (RATT), including actuators for tilting and cyclical leg movement, is used for rehabilitation of severely disabled neurological patients. Following further engineering development of the system, i.e. the addition of force sensors and visual bio-feedback, patients can actively participate in exercise testing and training on the device. Peak cardiopulmonary performance parameters were previously investigated, but it also important to compare submaximal parameters with standard devices. The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of the RATT for estimation of submaximal exercise thresholds by comparison with a cycle ergometer and a treadmill. METHODS: 17 healthy subjects randomly performed six maximal individualized incremental exercise tests, with two tests on each of the three exercise modalities. The ventilatory anaerobic threshold (VAT) and respiratory compensation point (RCP) were determined from breath-by-breath data. RESULTS: VAT and RCP on the RATT were lower than the cycle ergometer and the treadmill: oxygen uptake (V'O2) at VAT was [mean (SD)] 1.2 (0.3), 1.5 (0.4) and 1.6 (0.5) L/min, respectively (p < 0.001); V'O2 at RCP was 1.7 (0.4), 2.3 (0.8) and 2.6 (0.9) L/min, respectively (p = 0.001). High correlations for VAT and RCP were found between the RATT vs the cycle ergometer and RATT vs the treadmill (R on the range 0.69-0.80). VAT and RCP demonstrated excellent test-retest reliability for all three devices (ICC from 0.81 to 0.98). Mean differences between the test and retest values on each device were close to zero. The ventilatory equivalent for O2 at VAT for the RATT and cycle ergometer were similar and both were higher than the treadmill. The ventilatory equivalent for CO2 at RCP was similar for all devices. Ventilatory equivalent parameters demonstrated fair-to-excellent reliability and repeatability. CONCLUSIONS: It is feasible to use the RATT for estimation of submaximal exercise thresholds: VAT and RCP on the RATT were lower than the cycle ergometer and the treadmill, but there were high correlations between the RATT vs the cycle ergometer and vs the treadmill. Repeatability and test-retest reliability of all submaximal threshold parameters from the RATT were comparable to those of standard devices.

The Aggregate Demand for Private Health Insurance Coverage in the U.S.

This paper estimates the aggregate demand for private health insurance coverage in the U.S. using an error-correction model and by recognizing that people are without private health insurance for voluntary, structural, frictional, and cyclical reasons and because of public alternatives. Insurance coverage is measured both by the percentage of the population enrolled in private health insurance plans and the completeness of the insurance coverage. Annual data for the period 1966-1999 are used and both short and long run price and income elasticities of demand are estimated. The empirical findings indicate that both private insurance enrollment and completeness are relatively inelastic with respect to changes in price and income in the short and long run. Moreover, private health insurance enrollment is found to be inversely related to the poverty rate, particularly in the short-run. Finally, our results suggest that an increase in the number cyclically uninsured generates less of a welfare loss than an increase in the structurally uninsured.