Compensation between resolved wave driving and parameterized orographic gravity wave driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation and its response to climate change

Following recent findings, the interaction between resolved (Rossby) wave drag and parameterized orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD) is investigated, in terms of their driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), in a comprehensive climate model. To this end, the parameter that effectively determines the strength of OGWD in present-day and doubled CO2 simulations is varied. The authors focus on the Northern Hemisphere during winter when the largest response of the BDC to climate change is predicted to occur. It is found that increases in OGWD are to a remarkable degree compensated by a reduction in midlatitude resolved wave drag, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC. This compensation is also found for the response to climate change: changes in the OGWD contribution to the BDC response to climate change are compensated by opposite changes in the resolved wave drag contribution to the BDC response to climate change, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC response to climate change. By contrast, compensation does not occur at northern high latitudes, where resolved wave driving and the associated downwelling increase with increasing OGWD, both for the present-day climate and the response to climate change. These findings raise confidence in the credibility of climate model projections of the strengthened BDC.

Evaluating the ability of process based models to project sea-level change

We evaluate the ability of process based models to reproduce observed global mean sea-level change. When the models are forced by changes in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate system and anthropogenic changes in land-water storage, the average of the modelled sea-level change for the periods 1900–2010, 1961–2010 and 1990–2010 is about 80%, 85% and 90% of the observed rise. The modelled rate of rise is over 1 mm yr−1 prior to 1950, decreases to less than 0.5 mm yr−1 in the 1960s, and increases to 3 mm yr−1 by 2000. When observed regional climate changes are used to drive a glacier model and an allowance is included for an ongoing adjustment of the ice sheets, the modelled sea-level rise is about 2 mm yr−1 prior to 1950, similar to the observations. The model results encompass the observed rise and the model average is within 20% of the observations, about 10% when the observed ice sheet contributions since 1993 are added, increasing confidence in future projections for the 21st century. The increased rate of rise since 1990 is not part of a natural cycle but a direct response to increased radiative forcing (both anthropogenic and natural), which will continue to grow with ongoing greenhouse gas emissions

Twentieth-century global-mean sea-level rise: is the whole greater than the sum of the parts?

Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Progress has been made toward solving the “enigma” of twentieth-century GMSLR, which is that the observed GMSLR has previously been found to exceed the sum of estimated contributions, especially for the earlier decades. The authors propose the following: thermal expansion simulated by climate models may previously have been underestimated because of their not including volcanic forcing in their control state; the rate of glacier mass loss was larger than previously estimated and was not smaller in the first half than in the second half of the century; the Greenland ice sheet could have made a positive contribution throughout the century; and groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment, which are of opposite sign, may have been approximately equal in magnitude. It is possible to reconstruct the time series of GMSLR from the quantified contributions, apart from a constant residual term, which is small enough to be explained as a long-term contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. The reconstructions account for the observation that the rate of GMSLR was not much larger during the last 50 years than during the twentieth century as a whole, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semiempirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of the authors' closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the twentieth century.

Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes

Model projections of heavy precipitation and temperature extremes include large uncertainties. We demonstrate that the disagreement between individual simulations primarily arises from internal variability, whereas models agree remarkably well on the forced signal, the change in the absence of internal variability. Agreement is high on the spatial pattern of the forced heavy precipitation response showing an intensification over most land regions, in particular Eurasia and North America. The forced response of heavy precipitation is even more robust than that of annual mean precipitation. Likewise, models agree on the forced response pattern of hot extremes showing the greatest intensification over midlatitudinal land regions. Thus, confidence in the forced changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in response to a certain warming is high. Although in reality internal variability will be superimposed on that pattern, it is the forced response that determines the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in a risk perspective.

The synergies between goal sketching and enterprise architecture

This paper introduces a pragmatic and practical method for requirements modeling. The method is built using the concepts of our goal sketching technique together with techniques from an enterprise architecture modeling language. Our claim is that our method will help project managers who want to establish early control of their projects and will also give managers confidence in the scope of their project. In particular we propose the inclusion of assumptions as first class entities in the ArchiMate enterprise architecture modeling language and an extension of the ArchiMate Motivation Model principle to allow radical as well as normative analyses. We demonstrate the usefulness of this method using a simple university library system as an example.

Urban economic openness and IPO underpricing

We examine the empirical impact of trade openness on the short-run underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) using city-level real estate data. This paper represents a first attempt to employ a macroeconomic approach to explain IPO performance. We investigate an openness effect in which urban economic openness (UEO) has a significant impact on the productivity and on the prices of both direct and indirect real estate due to productivity gains of companies in more open areas. This in turn positively affects the firm’s profitability, enhancing the confidence in the local real estate market and the future company performance and decreasing the uncertainty of the IPO valuation. And as a result, we find that issuers have less incentive to underprice the IPO shares. China provides a suitable experimental ground to study the immense underpricing in developing markets, which cannot solely be accounted for by firm specific effects. First, Chinese real estate companies show strong geographic patterns focusing their businesses locally – usually at a city level. Second, we observe a degree of openness which is significantly heterogeneous across Chinese cities. Controlling for company-specific variables, location and state ownership, we find the evidence that companies whose businesses are in economically more open areas experience less IPO underpricing. Our results show high explanatory power and are robust to diverse specifications.

Large contribution of supercooled liquid clouds to the solar radiation budget of the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean is a critical region for global climate, yet large cloud and solar radiation biases over the Southern Ocean are a long-standing problem in climate models and are poorly understood, leading to biases in simulated sea surface temperatures. This study shows that supercooled liquid clouds are central to understanding and simulating the Southern Ocean environment. A combination of satellite observational data and detailed radiative transfer calculations is used to quantify the impact of cloud phase and cloud vertical structure on the reflected solar radiation in the Southern Hemisphere summer. It is found that clouds with supercooled liquid tops dominate the population of liquid clouds. The observations show that clouds with supercooled liquid tops contribute between 27% and 38% to the total reflected solar radiation between 40° and 70°S, and climate models are found to poorly simulate these clouds. The results quantify the importance of supercooled liquid clouds in the Southern Ocean environment and highlight the need to improve understanding of the physical processes that control these clouds in order to improve their simulation in numerical models. This is not only important for improving the simulation of present-day climate and climate variability, but also relevant for increasing confidence in climate feedback processes and future climate projections.

Verifiable Visualization for Isosurface Extraction

Visual representations of isosurfaces are ubiquitous in the scientific and engineering literature. In this paper, we present techniques to assess the behavior of isosurface extraction codes. Where applicable, these techniques allow us to distinguish whether anomalies in isosurface features can be attributed to the underlying physical process or to artifacts from the extraction process. Such scientific scrutiny is at the heart of verifiable visualization - subjecting visualization algorithms to the same verification process that is used in other components of the scientific pipeline. More concretely, we derive formulas for the expected order of accuracy (or convergence rate) of several isosurface features, and compare them to experimentally observed results in the selected codes. This technique is practical: in two cases, it exposed actual problems in implementations. We provide the reader with the range of responses they can expect to encounter with isosurface techniques, both under ""normal operating conditions"" and also under adverse conditions. Armed with this information - the results of the verification process - practitioners can judiciously select the isosurface extraction technique appropriate for their problem of interest, and have confidence in its behavior.

Kvinnors erfarenheter av framfödandet vid planerad hemförlossning

Background: The prevalence of sphincter rupture during childbirth has increased in Sweden from half percent to three percent from 1973 to 1993. Women who undergo planned home birth have sphincter injuries to a smaller extent than women who undergo planned hospital births. Objective: The purpose of this study was to describe women’s experience of the last stages of delivery during planned home birth. Design: Inductive content analysis of 150 randomly selected delivery reports. The delivery reports were gathered as a reply to an open question in a previously conducted survey.Findings: The woman´s confidence in the natural birthing process emerged as the overall theme of the delivery reports. Fourteen subcategories and five categories emerged during the analysis process: experience of support, physical experience, psychological experience, experience of birthplace and birth position and the woman’s awareness during birth. Conclusion: The support from the surrounding people was very important for the women and they felt calm and secure in the home environment. The women often gave birth in a birthing position that led to a reduced risk of perineal tears. Many risk factors for sphincter injuries were eliminated for the women who went thru planned home birth. For example the women often had experiences of prior deliveries and further no medical instruments were used during late stages of delivery in planned home births.

A proposed Model for Country Branding : an experimental Application on Nigeria

In the era of globalization, countries compete with each other for attention, respect and trust of potential consumers, investors, tourists, media and governments of other nations. Branding is the most powerful tool that a nation can utilize for effective differentiation strategies and for creating competitive advantage over other nations. Unfortunately, not every nations or destination marketers have a broad understanding of the concept of branding and how a country can be successfully branded. Hence, this study has proposed a model that could be used as a valuable guide for country branding. Also the model is recommended for countries struggling with image crisis; on the mission to improve the image internationally. Nigeria is a good example of countries with image crisis; it is one of the most populated countries in the world with a population of about 160 million inhabitants and growth rate of 2.553percent annually. Despite the abundant resources (e.g. coal, petroleum, natural gas etc.) that the nation is endowed with, it is quite disappointing that the population below poverty line is still at the alarming rate of 70percent of the total population. The mismanagement and poor leadership of the nation characterised by corruption, fraud, embezzlement of public fund etc. has culminated into serious image crisis that is slowing down the potential for investment and economic growth. However, there has been series of image rebranding campaigns but no tangible achievement has been recorded. It is quite questionable though, if image rebranding will provide the kind of future that Nigeria envisaged, considering the socio-political situation and the economic imbalance; compounded by the obvious fact that the nation has no known brand. Therefore, this paper argues that there is need to redirect the effort invested on image rebranding to the creation of a unique and competitive brand for the country. It was established from the study that a nation’s brand is capable of improving the reputation of the nation as well as stimulate the expectation of the target audience. However, it was also established from the study that a wrong approach to branding could mislead the target audience and attract negative publicity. Hence, as a contribution of the study to the field of branding, a model was proposed as a functional guide for country branding. Also, considering the abysmal performance of Nigeria’s image in the international community and to strengthen the argument that brand creation is required for the country; an experimental application of the proposed model was conducted using Nigeria as the case country. The first phase of the model suggested a major improvement in the society; this is required to further enhance the strengths of the country and to motivate the much needed community participation and confidence in the brand creation. It is the conclusion of the study that a strong nation brand can offset the image problem if it is built on something concrete, genuine, and uniquely identifiable with the country, capable of connecting to the cognitive psychology of the target audience.

Egenvård vid hjärtsvikt- en enkätstudie om vilka egenvårds åtgärder personer med hjärtsvikt säger sig använda i det dagliga livet

Heart failure is an illness that requires life-long treatment and often affects everyday aspects of a person’s life. Self-care is a significant part of the treatment. Good self-care resources make it possible for people with heart failure to make the lifestyle changes they often need to maintain or improve their level of health. Self-care means having knowledge of and being able to recognize the symptoms and signs of deterioration that can occur with heart failure, so that the person can take appropriate measures – and it also means knowing when it is time to seek professional help. The significance of self-care for heart failure has increased and will increase even more in the future, when monitoring one’s condition will be left more and more to the people themselves and those who take care of them. The object of the study was to learn what self-care measures people with heart failure say they apply in everyday life. The quantitative method of a questionnaire study (The European Heart Failure Self-Care Behaviour Scale) was used. Of the 94 people registered at a heart failure unit who were asked to complete the questionnaire, 58 of them consented. The results showed that more than 95% of the people with heart failure applied the recommended self-care measure of taking the medicines prescribed by their doctor. Many also applied the self-care measures of taking a rest during the day (83%) and taking it easy when they felt out of breath (78%). On the other hand, the self-care measures of daily weight control were applied only by 41%, daily exercise by only 48% and salt and fluid restrictions by only 59%. The self-care measures of contacting a doctor/nurse when noticing problems or symptoms of deterioration were applied by only 36% of those who felt out of breath and by only 43% of those who felt increased fatigue. The conclusion is that there is a need to improve the knowledge about and confidence in self-care treatment for people with heart failure. One way of achieving this is to show that people with heart failure check for symptoms and apply measures in their homes as part of the treatment and that this leads to an increased quality of life.

Kvinnans tillit till amning : En enkätstudie på BB och Eftervårdsmottagningen i Värmland

Amningsfrekvensen i Värmland sjunker och är låg jämfört med riket. En bidragande faktor till den sjunkande amningsfrekvensen är bristen på tillit till amning. Det är viktigt att kunna identifiera kvinnor med låg tillit till amning för att vända den sjunkande amningsfrekvensen och stärka kvinnan i rollen som moder. Syfte: Syftet med denna studie var att undersöka kvinnors tillit till amning på Barnbördshuset (BB) och Eftervårdsmottagningen i Värmland. Med enkäten BSES-SF identifieras kvinnor med låg tillit till amning och kvinnor som behöver ett ökat amningsstöd efter förlossning. Design/Metod: Studien utfördes med kvantitativ ansats. Data inhämtades från enkäten BSES-SF som besvarats av 70 kvinnor på BB och Eftervårdsmottagningen i Värmland. All data analyserades genom SPSS. Resultat: De flesta kvinnor ansåg att det var mycket viktigt med en fungerande amning och när kvinnorna skattade amningens betydelse framkom ett medelvärde på 8,66 där 0=inte alls viktigt och 10=mycket viktigt. Kvinnor som ammat tidigare skattade sin upplevda amningserfarenhet som mycket god. Varje enskild fråga på BSES-SF jämfördes mellan kvinnorna som vårdats på BB och Eftervårdsmottagningen. Det framkom en skillnad på åtta frågor där kvinnorna på Eftervårdsmottagningen skattade en högre tillit till amning jämfört med kvinnorna på BB. Utifrån totalsumman på BSES-SF med ett poängintervall mellan 14-70, framkom det att tilliten till amning skattades högre hos kvinnorna på Eftervårdsmottagningen (M=56,54) än på BB (M=49,88). Slutsats och klinisk tillämpbarhet: BSES-SF kan utifrån studiens resultat vara ett användbart verktyg, framförallt på BB där kvinnorna skattat en lägre tillit till amning. Förstföderskor och omföderskor som upplevt en komplicerad förlossning kan vara i behov av större insatser av amningsstöd. Studiens resultat kan medföra att barnmorskan blir extra uppmärksam på de kvinnor vars amning inte fungerar och där extra stöd behövs för att öka tilliten.

Marketing performance measurement : overview of approaches and practices for high technology firms

Um levantamento de 320 executivos de marketing feito pelo Conselho CMO e divulgado em junho de 2004 indicou que poucas companhias de alta tecnologia (menos de 20% das empresas entrevistadas) têm desenvolvido medidas e métricas úteis e expressivas para as suas organizações de marketing. Porém a pesquisa também revelou que companhias que estabeleceram medidas formais e compreensivas atingiram resultados financeiros superiores e tiveram mais confiança do CEO na função de marketing. Esta dissertação provê uma visão geral da informação precisa para executivos de marketing entenderem e implementarem processos para medição de performance de marketing (MPM) em suas organizações. Ela levanta questões para gerentes de marketing na industria de alta tecnologia com respeito às demandas para maior responsabilidade final, valor de medição para o melhoramento dos processos de marketing, iniciativas para determinar a lucratividade dos investimentos em marketing, e a importância das atividades de marketing nos relatórios corporativos. Esta dissertação defende a implementação de MPM, mapeando seus benefícios de medição para ambos gerentes de marketing e as suas empresas. o trabalho logo explora alguns conceitos gerais de medição de marketing e investiga algumas abordagens a MPM propostas pela industria, pela comunidade acadêmica, e pelos analistas. Finalmente, a dissertação descreve algumas práticas que todo gerente de marketing na industria de alta tecnologia deve considerar quando adotando MPM. As sugestões são gerais, mas devem familiarizar o leitor com as informações precisas para habilitar processos e rigor na sua organização com respeito a MPM.

A taxa natural de juros no Brasil

Neste artigo, foi estimada a taxa natural de juros para a economia brasileira entre o final de 2001 e segundo trimestre de 2010 com base em dois modelos, sendo o primeiro deles o proposto por Laubach e Williams e o segundo proposto por Mesónnier e Renne, que trata de uma versão alterada do primeiro, que segundo os autores perimite uma estimação mais transparente e robusta. Em ambos os modelos, a taxa natural de juros é estimada em conjunto com o produto potencial, através de filtro de Kalman, no formato de um modelo Espaço de Estado. As estimativas provenientes dos dois modelos não apresentam diferenças relevantes, o que gera maior confiabilidade nos resultados obtidos. Para o período de maior interesse deste estudo (pós-2005), dada a existência de outras análises para período anterior, as estimativas mostram que a taxa natural de juros está em queda na economia brasileira desde 2006. A mensuração da taxa natural de juros, adicionalmente, possibilitou que fosse feita uma avaliação sobre a condução da política monetária implementada pelo Banco Central brasileiro nos últimos anos através do conceito de hiato de juros. Em linhas gerais, a análise mostrou um Banco Central mais conservador entre o final de 2001 e 2005, e mais próximo da neutralidade desde então. Esta conclusão difere da apontada por outros estudos, especialmente para o primeiro período.

A importância do objeto transicional no desenvolvimento psíquico sadio

O objeto transicional é um mediador entre mãe e filho, eu e não-eu, mundo interno e mundo externo. A mãe suficientemente boa permitirá esse objeto e através dele a criança passará de um estado de ilusão para um estado de desilusão, do relacionar-se com o objeto para o uso do objeto. A passagem do princípio do prazer para o princípio da realidade permitida pela mãe boa, através de uma adaptação ativa com a criança facilitará uma capacidade do brincar criativo num espaço potencial. O jogo com as pessoas onde haverá amigos e inimigos somente se realizará através desse brincar criativo. Para que exista um desenvolvimento do processo de separação- individualização é necessário a existência de um objeto transicional em sua forma saudável como um acalmador da ansiedade. Daí a importância da disponibilidade da mãe e do objeto transicional para que todo o desenvolvimento psíquico saudável se realize; a importância de uma continuidade no cuidado e uma consequente confiança na mãe para que possa ser bem suportada a sua ausência; e para que no processo de dependência para o rumo à independência a criança possa seguir segura e feliz por essa separação ou independência da mãe e filho ao mesmo tempo. Caso isto não ocorra de uma forma saudável, isto e, se a mãe ou o ambiente não for suficientemente bom, pode haver o desenvolvimento, na criança e posteriormente no adulto, de um objeto transicional sendo o próprio corpo e mais tarde uma idéia fixa. O que é mais importante nisso tudo é que o objeto transicional exista e seja permitido em toda a sua plenitude sem interrupções. O processo deve realizar-se até o final, isto é, até que o objeto perca simplesmente o seu significado e não esquecido ou reprimido. Que fique reduzido somente ao nível de significante. O tempo que ele durará vai variar de criança para criança, de mãe para mãe, de meio para meio. E isto não terá muita importância. O que terá importância será somente que a ele seja permitido existir e se o processo for concluído a criança terá um desenvolvimento psíquico saudável e poderá, pela vida afora,confiar em si mesma e nas pessoas que a rodeiam. Poderá ser um "ser total" pronto para encarar e enfrentar o mundo externo.