Cost-Effectiveness of Palliation of Unresectable Esophageal Cancer

Introduction Different modalities of palliation for obstructive symptoms in patients with unresectable esophageal cancer (EC) exist. However, these therapeutic alternatives have significant differences in costs and effectiveness. Methods A Markov model was designed to compare the cost-effectiveness (CE) of self-expandable stent (SES), brachytherapy and laser in the palliation of unresectable EC. Patients were assigned to one of the strategies, and the improvement in swallowing function was compared given the treatment efficacy, probability of survival, and risks of complications associated to each strategy. Probabilities and parameters for distribution were based on a 9-month time frame. Results Under the base-case scenario, laser has the lowest CE ratio, followed by brachytherapy at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $4,400.00, and SES is a dominated strategy. In the probabilistic analysis, laser is the strategy with the highest probability of cost-effectiveness for willingness to pay (WTP) values lower than $3,201 and brachytherapy for all WTP yielding a positive net health benefit (NHB) (threshold $4,440). The highest probability of cost-effectiveness for brachytherapy is 96%, and consequently, selection of suboptimal strategies can lead to opportunity losses for the US health system, ranging from US$ 4.32 to US$ 38.09 million dollars over the next 5-20 years. Conclusion Conditional to the WTP and current US Medicare costs, palliation of unresectable esophageal cancers with brachytherapy provides the largest amount of NHB and is the strategy with the highest probability of CE. However, some level of uncertainly remains, and wrong decisions will be made until further knowledge is acquired.

Management of Common Bile Duct Stones in Cirrhotic Patients with Coagulopathy: A Comparison of Supra-Papillary Puncture and Standard Cannulation Technique

Bleeding is not uncommon following endoscopic sphincterotomy. Supra-papillary puncture (SPP) might be safer than standard cannulation (SC) techniques in patients with coagulopathy. The aim of the study was to compare the safety and effectiveness of SPP and SC. This was a prospective case control intervention study. Decompensated cirrhotic patients with coagulopathy and choledocolithiasis underwent SC and SPP methods for biliary access. One hundred five patients (56 [53.3%] men, mean [SD] age 56 [15.8]) underwent ERCP. SC and SPP were performed in 63 and 42 patients, respectively. Biliary access was achieved in 56/63 (89%) and 40/42 (95%) of patients undergoing SC and SPP, respectively (P = 0.13; 95% CI [-0.16; 0.03]). Complications occurred in 10/63 (15.8%) patients undergoing SC and 5/42 (11.9%) SPP (P = 0.28; 95% CI [-0.17, 0.16]). Five (7.9%) and two (3.2%) episodes of post-sphincterotomy bleeding was seen in the SC and SPP groups, respectively (P = 0.36; 95% CI [-0.16, 0.05]). In contrast, three (4.8%) episodes of pancreatitis were seen in the SC and none in the SPP group (P = 0.05; 95% CI [0.001; 0.004]). A cost-effectiveness analysis demonstrated that SPP is an acceptable alternative at an ICER of US$ 5,974.92 per additional successful procedure. SPP is a safe and effective technique for the management of common bile duct stones in decompensated cirrhotic patients. Conditional to the willingness-to-pay and to the local ERCP-related costs, SPP is also a cost-effective alternative to the SC methods. SPP is associated with a lower rate of complications but larger studies to validate these findings are necessary.

Influence of third-generation oral contraceptives on the complexity analysis and symbolic dynamics of heart rate variability

Objective To evaluate the influence of oral contraceptives (OCs) containing 20 mu mu g ethinylestradiol (EE) and 150 mu mu g gestodene (GEST) on the autonomic modulation of heart rate (HR) in women. Methods One-hundred and fifty-five women aged 24 +/-+/- 2 years were divided into four groups according to their physical activity and the use or not of an OC: active-OC, active-non-OC (NOC), sedentary-OC, and sedentary-NOC. The heart rate was registered in real time based on the electrocardiogram signal for 15 minutes, in the supine-position. The heart rate variability (HRV) was analysed using Shannon`s entropy (SE), conditional entropy (complexity index [CInd] and normalised CInd [NCI]), and symbolic analysis (0V%, 1V%, 2LV%, and 2ULV%). For statistical analysis the Kruskal-Wallis test with Dunn post hoc and the Wilcoxon test (p < 0.05 was considered significant) were applied. Results Treatment with this COC caused no significant changes in SE, CInd, NCI, or symbolic analysis in either active or sedentary groups. Active groups presented higher values for SE and 2ULV%, and lower values for 0V% when compared to sedentary groups (p < 0.05). Conclusion HRV patterns differed depending on life style; the non-linear method applied was highly reliable for identifying these changes. The use of OCs containing 20 mu mu g EE and 150 mu mu g GEST does not influence HR autonomic modulation.

Relational learning in children with deafness and cochlear implants

This four-experiment series sought to evaluate the potential of children with neurosensory deafness and cochlear implants to exhibit auditory-visual and visual-visual stimulus equivalence relations within a matching-to-sample format. Twelve children who became deaf prior to acquiring language (prelingual) and four who became deaf afterwards (postlingual) were studied. All children learned auditory-visual conditional discriminations and nearly all showed emergent equivalence relations. Naming tests, conducted with a subset of the: children, showed no consistent relationship to the equivalence-test outcomes.. This study makes several contributions: to the literature on stimulus equivalence. First; it demonstrates that both pre- and postlingually deaf children-can: acquire auditory-visual equivalence-relations after cochlear implantation, thus demonstrating symbolic functioning. Second, it directs attention to a population that may be especially interesting for researchers seeking to analyze the relationship. between speaker and listener repertoires. Third, it demonstrates the feasibility of conducting experimental studies of stimulus control processes within the limitations of a hospital, which these children must visit routinely for the maintenance of their cochlear implants.

Quasi-stationarity in populations that are subject to large-scale mortality or emigration

We shall examine a model, first studied by Brockwell et al. [Adv Appl Probab 14 (1982) 709.], which can be used to describe the longterm behaviour of populations that are subject to catastrophic mortality or emigration events. Populations can suffer dramatic declines when disease, such as an introduced virus, affects the population, or when food shortages occur, due to overgrazing or fluctuations in rainfall. However, perhaps surprisingly, such populations can survive for long periods and, although they may eventually become extinct, they can exhibit an apparently stationary regime. It is useful to be able to model this behaviour. This is particularly true of the ecological examples that motivated the present study, since, in order to properly manage these populations, it is necessary to be able to predict persistence times and to estimate the conditional probability distribution of population size. We shall see that although our model predicts eventual extinction, the time till extinction can be long and the stationary exhibited by these populations over any reasonable time scale can be explained using a quasistationary distribution. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stimulus competition in affective and relational learning

Evaluative learning theory states that affective learning, the acquisition of likes and dislikes, is qualitatively different from relational learning, the learning of predictive relationships among stimuli. Three experiments tested the prediction derived from evaluative learning theory that relational learning, but not affective learning, is affected by stimulus competition by comparing performance during two conditional stimuli, one trained in a superconditioning procedure and the other in a blocking procedure. Ratings of unconditional stimulus expectancy and electrodermal responses indicated stimulus competition in relational learning. Evidence for stimulus competition in affective learning was provided by verbal ratings of conditional stimulus pleasantness and by measures of blink startle modulation. Taken together, the present experiments demonstrate stimulus competition in relational and affective learning, a result inconsistent with evaluative learning theory. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Continuous quantum measurement of two coupled quantum dots using a point contact: A quantum trajectory approach

We obtain the finite-temperature unconditional master equation of the density matrix for two coupled quantum dots (CQD's) when one dot is subjected to a measurement of its electron occupation number using a point contact (PC). To determine how the CQD system state depends on the actual current through the PC device, we use the so-called quantum trajectory method to derive the zero-temperature conditional master equation. We first treat the electron tunneling through the PC barrier as a classical stochastic point process (a quantum-jump model). Then we show explicitly that our results can be extended to the quantum-diffusive limit when the average electron tunneling rate is very large compared to the extra change of the tunneling rate due to the presence of the electron in the dot closer to the PC. We find that in both quantum-jump and quantum-diffusive cases, the conditional dynamics of the CQD system can be described by the stochastic Schrodinger equations for its conditioned state vector if and only if the information carried away from the CQD system by the PC reservoirs can be recovered by the perfect detection of the measurements.

Quantum measurement of coherent tunnelling between quantum dots

We describe the conditional and unconditional dynamics of two coupled quantum dots when one dot is subjected to a measurement of its occupation number by coupling it to a third readout dot via the Coulomb interaction. The readout dot is coupled to source and drain leads under weak bias, and a tunnel current flows through a single bound state when energetically allowed. The occupation of the quantum dot near the readout dot shifts the bound state of the readout dot from a low conducting state to a high conducting state. The measurement is made by continuously monitoring the tunnel current through the readout dot. We show that there is a difference between the time scale for the measurement-induced decoherence between the localized states of the dots, and the time scale on which the system becomes localized due to the measurement.

Gag-Pol supplied in trans is efficiently packaged and supports viral function in human immunodeficiency virus type 1

The intracellular trafficking and subsequent incorporation of Gag-Pol into human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) remains poorly defined. Gag-Pol is encoded by the same mRNA as Gag and is generated by ribosomal frameshifting. The multimerization of Gag and Gag-Pol is an essential step in the formation of infectious viral particles. In this study, we examined whether the interaction between Gag and Gag-Pol is initiated during protein translation in order to facilitate the trafficking and subsequent packaging of Gag-Pol into the virion. A conditional cotransfection system was developed in which virion formation required the coexpression of two HIV-1-based plasmids, one that produces both Gag and Gag-Pol and one that only produces Gag-Pol. The Gag-Pol proteins were either immunotagged with a His epitope or functionally tagged with a mutation (K65R) in reverse transcriptase that is associated with drug resistance. Gag-Pol packaging was assessed to determine whether the Gag-Pol incorporated into the virion was preferentially packaged from the plasmid that expressed both Gag and Gag-Pol or whether it could be packaged from either plasmid. Our data show that translation of Gag and Gag-Pol from the same mRNA is not critical for virion packaging of the Gag-Pol polyprotein or for viral function.

Dynamics of a mesoscopic charge quantum bit under continuous quantum measurement

We present the conditional quantum dynamics of an electron tunneling between two quantum dots subject to a measurement using a low transparency point contact or tunnel junction. The double dot system forms a single qubit and the measurement corresponds to a continuous in time readout of the occupancy of the quantum dot. We illustrate the difference between conditional and unconditional dynamics of the qubit. The conditional dynamics is discussed in two regimes depending on the rate of tunneling through the point contact: quantum jumps, in which individual electron tunneling current events can be distinguished, and a diffusive dynamics in which individual events are ignored, and the time-averaged current is considered as a continuous diffusive variable. We include the effect of inefficient measurement and the influence of the relative phase between the two tunneling amplitudes of the double dot/point contact system.

Sun exposure and interaction with family history in risk of melanoma, Queensland, Australia

Sun exposure is the main environmental risk factor for melanoma, but the timing of exposure during life that confers increased risk is controversial. Here we provide the first report of the association between lifetime and age-specific cumulative ultraviolet exposure and cutaneous melanoma in Queensland, Australia, an area of high solar radiation, and examine the association separately for families at high, intermediate and low familial melanoma risk. Subjects were a population-based sample of melanoma cases diagnosed and registered in Queensland between 1982 and 1990 and their relatives. The analysis included 1,263 cases and relatives with confirmed cutaneous melanoma and 3,111 first-degree relatives without melanoma as controls. Data an lifetime residence and sun exposure, family history and other melanoma risk factors were collected by a mailed questionnaire. Using conditional multiple logistic regression with stratification by family, cumulative sun exposure in childhood and in adulthood after age 20 was significantly associated with melanoma, with estimated relative risks of 1.15 per 5,000 minimal erythemal doses (MEDs) from age 5 to 12 years, and 1.52 per 5 MEDs/day from age 20. There was no association with sun exposure in families at high familial melanoma risk. History of nonmelanoma skin cancer (relative risk [RR] = 1.26) and multiple sunburns (RR = 1.31) were significant risk factors. These findings indicate that sun exposure in childhood and in adulthood are important determinants of melanoma but not in those rare families with high melanoma susceptibility, in which genetic factors are likely to be more important. (C) 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Atom lasers, coherent states, and coherence. I. Physically realizable ensembles of pure states

A laser, be it an optical laser or an atom laser, is an open quantum system that produces a coherent beam of bosons (photons or atoms, respectively). Far above threshold, the stationary state rho(ss) of the laser mode is a mixture of coherent-field states with random phase, or, equivalently, a Poissonian mixture of number states. This paper answers the question: can descriptions such as these, of rho(ss) as a stationary ensemble of pure states, be physically realized? Here physical realization is as defined previously by us [H. M. Wiseman and J. A. Vaccaro, Phys. Lett. A 250, 241 (1998)]: an ensemble of pure states for a particular system can be physically realized if, without changing the dynamics of the system, an experimenter can (in principle) know at any time that the system is in one of the pure-state members of the ensemble. Such knowledge can be obtained by monitoring the baths to which the system is coupled, provided that coupling is describable by a Markovian master equation. Using a family of master equations for the (atom) laser, we solve for the physically realizable (PR) ensembles. We find that for any finite self-energy chi of the bosons in the laser mode, the coherent-state ensemble is not PR; the closest one can come to it is an ensemble of squeezed states. This is particularly relevant for atom lasers, where the self-energy arising from elastic collisions is expected to be large. By contrast, the number-state ensemble is always PR. As the self-energy chi increases, the states in the PR ensemble closest to the coherent-state ensemble become increasingly squeezed. Nevertheless, there are values of chi for which states with well-defined coherent amplitudes are PR, even though the atom laser is not coherent (in the sense of having a Bose-degenerate output). We discuss the physical significance of this anomaly in terms of conditional coherence (and hence conditional Bose degeneracy).

Self-awareness of Prospective Memory Failure in Adults with Traumatic Brain Injury

The frequency of prospective memory failure in individuals with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) was investigated by comparison with a non-brain-injured control group. Self-awareness of prospective memory function was also assessed by comparing self-ratings with ratings by significant others. Study participants included 33 individuals with severe TBI and 29 non-brain-injured persons. Each participant nominated a close friend or relative who completed the informant's version of the questionnaire. Participants and their significant others both rated the participants' frequency of prospective memory lapses using the Comprehensive Assessment of Prospective Memory (CAPM). An independent groups design was adopted to compare the TBI and control groups. No significant difference was found between the TBI and control participants' self-ratings of frequency of prospective memory failure, but ratings by significant others were significantly different. The TBI group demonstrated less self-awareness (i.e. underestimated the frequency of prospective memory failure compared to significant others) than the control group.

The effect of soft tissue deloading tape on thoracic spine pressure pain thresholds in asymptomatic subjects

The application of tape to deload soft tissue is used in the management of thoracic spine pain. A reported clinical feature of this treatment is reduced tenderness of the spine during postero-anterior mobilizations. A randomized, single blind, placebo controlled, repeated measures design study was employed to investigate the effects of deloading tape on pressure pain threshold measurements at the level of the T7 spinous process in an asymptomatic group of 24 subjects. Pressure pain thresholds were assessed prior to and following the application of deloading tape, placebo sham tape and no-tape control conditions. All subjects received all three conditions in a randomized order on three separate days. Differences between the pre- and post-measurements were used as indicators of change in a subject's pressure pain threshold. No significant change in pressure pain threshold measurements was found between conditions. In summary, this study demonstrated that deloading tape applied to the level of the T7 spinous process did not significantly change pressure pain threshold measurements in asymptomatic subjects, raising the possibility that any pain relieving effect may well be conditional upon pain being present. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity and specificity of pooled faecal culture and serology as flock-screening tests for detection of ovine paratuberculosis in Australia

The flock-level sensitivity of pooled faecal culture and serological testing using AGID for the detection of ovine Johne's disease-infected flocks were estimated using non-gold-standard methods. The two tests were compared in an extensive field trial in 296 flocks in New South Wales during 1998. In each flock, a sample of sheep was selected and tested for ovine Johne's disease using both the AGID and pooled faecal culture. The flock-specificity of pooled faecal culture also was estimated from results of surveillance and market-assurance testing in New South Wales. The overall flock-sensitivity of pooled faecal culture was 92% (95% CI: 82.4 and 97.4%) compared to 61% (50.5 and 70.9%) for serology (assuming that both tests were 100% specific). In low-prevalence flocks (estimated prevalence