Sequential updating via dynamic hierarchical models: A Bayesian approach to longitudinal data analysis

Most statistical analysis, theory and practice, is concerned with static models; models with a proposed set of parameters whose values are fixed across observational units. Static models implicitly assume that the quantified relationships remain the same across the design space of the data. While this is reasonable under many circumstances this can be a dangerous assumption when dealing with sequentially ordered data. The mere passage of time always brings fresh considerations and the interrelationships among parameters, or subsets of parameters, may need to be continually revised. ^ When data are gathered sequentially dynamic interim monitoring may be useful as new subject-specific parameters are introduced with each new observational unit. Sequential imputation via dynamic hierarchical models is an efficient strategy for handling missing data and analyzing longitudinal studies. Dynamic conditional independence models offers a flexible framework that exploits the Bayesian updating scheme for capturing the evolution of both the population and individual effects over time. While static models often describe aggregate information well they often do not reflect conflicts in the information at the individual level. Dynamic models prove advantageous over static models in capturing both individual and aggregate trends. Computations for such models can be carried out via the Gibbs sampler. An application using a small sample repeated measures normally distributed growth curve data is presented. ^

Is output performance all about the resources? A fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis of street-level bureaucrats in Switzerland

This article refines Lipsky’s (1980) assertion that lacking resources negatively affect output performance. It uses fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to analyse the nuanced interplay of contextual and individual determinants of the output performance of veterinary inspectors as street-level bureaucrats in Switzerland. Moving ‘beyond Lipsky’, the study builds on recent theoretical contributions and a systematic comparison across organizational contexts. Against a widespread assumption, output performance is not all about the resources. The impact of perceived available resources hinges on caseloads, which prove to be more decisive. These contextual factors interact with individual attitudes emerging from diverse public accountabilities. The results contextualize the often-emphasized importance of worker-client interaction. In a setting where clients cannot escape the interaction, street-level bureaucrats are not primarily held accountable by them. Studies of output performance should thus sensibly consider gaps between what is being demanded of and offered to street-level bureaucrats, and the latter’s multiple embeddedness.

Precision of fit of implant-supported screw-retained 10-unit computer-aided-designed and computer-aided-manufactured frameworks made from zirconium dioxide and titanium: an in vitro study

OBJECTIVE To analyze the precision of fit of implant-supported screw-retained computer-aided-designed and computer-aided-manufactured (CAD/CAM) zirconium dioxide (ZrO) frameworks. MATERIALS AND METHODS Computer-aided-designed and computer-aided-manufactured ZrO frameworks (NobelProcera) for a screw-retained 10-unit implant-supported reconstruction on six implants (FDI positions 15, 13, 11, 21, 23, 25) were fabricated using a laser (ZrO-L, N = 6) and a mechanical scanner (ZrO-M, N = 5) for digitizing the implant platform and the cuspid-supporting framework resin pattern. Laser-scanned CAD/CAM titanium (TIT-L, N = 6) and cast CoCrW-alloy frameworks (Cast, N = 5) fabricated on the same model and designed similar to the ZrO frameworks were the control. The one-screw test (implant 25 screw-retained) was applied to assess the vertical microgap between implant and framework platform with a scanning electron microscope. The mean microgap was calculated from approximal and buccal values. Statistical comparison was performed with non-parametric tests. RESULTS No statistically significant pairwise difference was observed between the relative effects of vertical microgap between ZrO-L (median 14 μm; 95% CI 10-26 μm), ZrO-M (18 μm; 12-27 μm) and TIT-L (15 μm; 6-18 μm), whereas the values of Cast (236 μm; 181-301 μm) were significantly higher (P < 0.001) than the three CAD/CAM groups. A monotonous trend of increasing values from implant 23 to 15 was observed in all groups (ZrO-L, ZrO-M and Cast P < 0.001, TIT-L P = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS Optical and tactile scanners with CAD/CAM technology allow for the fabrication of highly accurate long-span screw-retained ZrO implant-reconstructions. Titanium frameworks showed the most consistent precision. Fit of the cast alloy frameworks was clinically inacceptable.

Differences in coronary risk factors, procedural characteristics, mortality and stent thrombosis between two all-comers percutaneous coronary intervention registries from Europe and Japan: a patient-level data analysis of the Bern-Rotterdam and j-Cypher registries

Aims: The reported rate of stent thrombosis (ST) after drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation varies among registries. To investigate differences in baseline characteristics and clinical outcome in European and Japanese all-comers registries, we performed a pooled analysis of patient-level data. Methods and results: The j-Cypher registry (JC) is a multicentre observational study conducted in Japan, including 12,824 patients undergoing SES implantation. From the Bern-Rotterdam registry (BR) enrolled at two academic hospitals in Switzerland and the Netherlands, 3,823 patients with SES were included in the current analysis. Patients in BR were younger, more frequently smokers and presented more frequently with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (MI). Conversely, JC patients more frequently had diabetes and hypertension. At five years, the definite ST rate was significantly lower in JC than BR (JC 1.6% vs. BR 3.3%, p<0.001), while the unadjusted mortality tended to be lower in BR than in JC (BR 13.2% vs. JC 14.4%, log-rank p=0.052). After adjustment, the j-Cypher registry was associated with a significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.56, 95% CI: 0.49-0.64) as well as definite stent thrombosis (HR 0.46, 95% CI: 0.35-0.61). Conclusions: The baseline characteristics of the two large registries were different. After statistical adjustment, JC was associated with lower mortality and ST.

Thyroid antibody status, subclinical hypothyroidism, and the risk of coronary heart disease: an individual participant data analysis.

CONTEXT Subclinical hypothyroidism has been associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), particularly with thyrotropin levels of 10.0 mIU/L or greater. The measurement of thyroid antibodies helps predict the progression to overt hypothyroidism, but it is unclear whether thyroid autoimmunity independently affects CHD risk. OBJECTIVE The objective of the study was to compare the CHD risk of subclinical hypothyroidism with and without thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAbs). DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION A MEDLINE and EMBASE search from 1950 to 2011 was conducted for prospective cohorts, reporting baseline thyroid function, antibodies, and CHD outcomes. DATA EXTRACTION Individual data of 38 274 participants from six cohorts for CHD mortality followed up for 460 333 person-years and 33 394 participants from four cohorts for CHD events. DATA SYNTHESIS Among 38 274 adults (median age 55 y, 63% women), 1691 (4.4%) had subclinical hypothyroidism, of whom 775 (45.8%) had positive TPOAbs. During follow-up, 1436 participants died of CHD and 3285 had CHD events. Compared with euthyroid individuals, age- and gender-adjusted risks of CHD mortality in subclinical hypothyroidism were similar among individuals with and without TPOAbs [hazard ratio (HR) 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87-1.53 vs HR 1.26, CI 1.01-1.58, P for interaction = .62], as were risks of CHD events (HR 1.16, CI 0.87-1.56 vs HR 1.26, CI 1.02-1.56, P for interaction = .65). Risks of CHD mortality and events increased with higher thyrotropin, but within each stratum, risks did not differ by TPOAb status. CONCLUSIONS CHD risk associated with subclinical hypothyroidism did not differ by TPOAb status, suggesting that biomarkers of thyroid autoimmunity do not add independent prognostic information for CHD outcomes.

Introduction to Bayesian Data Analysis

A workshop providing an introduction to Bayesian data analysis and hypothesis testing using R, Jags and the BayesFactor package.

Afdeyu Research Substation: Hydrometeorological Data Analysis 1984-2007

This report presents a basic analyis of the data collected on agroclimatology, erosion, and soil and water conservation at Afdeyu Station in the central highlands of Eritrea between 1984 and 2007. Datasets and graphs include rainfall, air and soil surface temperatures, soil loss, surface runoff, river discharge, and land use including cropping patterns of the measured catchment.

A new Time-Of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (TOF-MS) for noble gas analysis

Noble gas analysis in early solar system materials, which can provide valuable information about early solar system processes and timescales, are very challenging because of extremely low noble gas concentrations (ppt). We therefore developed a new compact sized (33 cm length, 7.2cm diameter, 1.3 L internal volume) Time-of-Flight (TOF) noble gas mass spectrometer for high sensitivity. We call it as Edel Gas Time-of-flight (EGT) mass spectrometer. The instrument uses electron impact ionization coupled to an ion trap, which allows us to ionize and measure all noble gas isotopes. Using a reflectron set-up improves the mass resolution. In addition, the reflectron set-up also enables some extra focusing. The detection is via MCPs and the signals are processed either via ADC or TDC systems. The objective of this work is to understand the newly developed Time-Of-Flight (TOF) mass spectrometer for noble gas analysis in presolar grains of the meteorites. Chapter 1 briefly introduces the basic idea and importance of the instrument. The physics relevant to time-of-flight mass spectrometry technique is discussed in the Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 will present the oxidation technique of nanodiamonds of the presolar grains by using copper oxide. Chapter 4 will present the details about EGT data analysis software. Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 will explain the details about EGT design and operation. Finally, the performance results will be presented and discussed in the Chapter 7, and whole work is summarized in Chapter 8 and also outlook of the future work is given.

Report SCRP Monitoring and Data Analysis Training Project

Report on the project activities 2003.

Detection of Malnutrition in Patients Undergoing Maintenance Haemodialysis: A Quantitative Data Analysis on 12 Parameters

Background Protein-energy-malnutrition (PEM) is common in people with end stage kidney disease (ESKD) undergoing maintenance haemodialysis (MHD) and correlates strongly with mortality. To this day, there is no gold standard for detecting PEM in patients on MHD. Aim of Study The aim of this study was to evaluate if Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002), handgrip strength measurement, mid-upper arm muscle area (MUAMA), triceps skin fold measurement (TSF), serum albumin, normalised protein catabolic rate (nPCR), Kt/V and eKt/V, dry body weight, body mass index (BMI), age and time since start on MHD are relevant for assessing PEM in patients on MHD. Methods The predictive value of the selected parameters on mortality and mortality or weight loss of more than 5% was assessed. Quantitative data analysis of the 12 parameters in the same patients on MHD in autumn 2009 (n = 64) and spring 2011 (n = 40) with paired statistical analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. Results Paired data analysis showed significant reduction of dry body weight, BMI and nPCR. Kt/Vtot did not change, eKt/v and hand grip strength measurements were significantly higher in spring 2011. No changes were detected in TSF, serum albumin, NRS-2002 and MUAMA. Serum albumin was shown to be the only predictor of death and of the combined endpoint “death or weight loss of more than 5%”. Conclusion We now screen patients biannually for serum albumin, nPCR, Kt/V, handgrip measurement of the shunt-free arm, dry body weight, age and time since initiation of MHD.