Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under 21st-century climate change

Quantitative estimates of the range loss of mountain plants under climate change have so far mostly relied on static geographical projections of species' habitat shifts(1-3). Here, we use a hybrid model(4) that combines such projections with simulations of demography and seed dispersal to forecast the climate-driven spatio-temporal dynamics of 150 high-mountain plant species across the European Alps. This model predicts average range size reductions of 44-50% by the end of the twenty-first century, which is similar to projections from the most 'optimistic' static model (49%). However, the hybrid model also indicates that population dynamics will lag behind climatic trends and that an average of 40% of the range still occupied at the end of the twenty-first century will have become climatically unsuitable for the respective species, creating an extinction debt(5,6). Alarmingly, species endemic to the Alps seem to face the highest range losses. These results caution against optimistic conclusions from moderate range size reductions observed during the twenty-first century as they are likely to belie more severe longer-term effects of climate warming on mountain plants.

Climate Change Impacts on Iowa, 2010, January 1, 2011

Today, perhaps without their realization, Iowans are factoring climate change into their lives and activities. Current farming practices and flood mitigation efforts, for example, are reflecting warmer winters, longer growing seasons, warmer nights, higher dew-point temperatures, increased humidity, greater annual stream flows, and more frequent severe precipitation events (Fig. 1) than were prevalent during the past 50 years. Some of the effects of these changes (such as longer growing season) may be positive, while others (particularly the tendency for greater precipitation events that lead to flooding) are negative. Climate change embodies all of these results and many more in a complex manner. The Iowa legislature has been proactive in seeking advice about climate change and its impacts on our state. In 2007, Governor Culver and the Iowa General Assembly enacted Senate File 485 and House File 2571 to create the Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council (ICCAC). ICCAC members reported an emissions inventory and a forecast for Iowa’s greenhouse gases (GHGs), policy options for reducing Iowa’s GHG, and two scenarios charting GHG reductions of 50% and 90% by 2050 from a baseline of 2005. Following issuance of the final report in December 2008, the General Assembly enacted a new bill in 2009 (Sec. 27, Section 473.7, Code 2009 amended) that set in motion a review of climate change impacts and policies in Iowa. This report is the result of that 2009 bill. It continues the dialogue between Iowa’s stakeholders, scientific community, and the state legislature that was begun with these earlier reports.

Audit report on the Iowa Water Pollution Control Works Financing Program and the Iowa Drinking Water Facilities Financing Program, joint programs of the Iowa Finance Authority and the Iowa Department of Natural Resources for the year ended June 30, 2012

Audit report on the Iowa Water Pollution Control Works Financing Program and the Iowa Drinking Water Facilities Financing Program, joint programs of the Iowa Finance Authority and the Iowa Department of Natural Resources for the year ended June 30, 2012

Fossil resource depletion and climate change emissions: the role of physical constrictions

[spa] En lo que concierne al cambio climático, los pronósticos de cercanos picos de combustible fósiles parecen buenas noticias pues la mayoría de las emisiones proceden de la quema de combustibles fósiles. Sin embargo, esto podría resultar engañoso de confirmarse las enormes estimaciones de reservas de carbón pues puede divisarse un intercambio de combustible fósiles con baja concentración de carbono (petróleo y gas) por otros de mayor (carbón). Ciñéndonos a esta hipótesis desarrollamos escenarios donde tan pronto el petróleo y el gas natural alcanzan su cénit la extracción de carbón crece lo necesario para compensar el descenso de los primeros. Estimamos las emisiones que se deriva de tales supuestos y las comparamos con el peor escenario del IPCC. Si bien dicho escenario parece improbable concluimos que los picos de petróleo y gas no son suficientes para evitar peligrosas sendas de gases de efecto invernadero. Las concentraciones de CO2 halladas superan con creces las 450 ppm sin signos de remisión.

Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter?

Many studies have investigated the impacts that climate change could potentially have on the distribution of plant species, but few have attempted to constrain projections through plant dispersal limitations. Instead, most studies published so far have been using the simplification of considering dispersal as either unlimited or null. However, depending on a species' dispersal capacity, landscape fragmentation, and the rate of climatic change, these assumptions can lead to serious over- or underestimation of a species' future distribution. To quantify the discrepancies between unlimited, realistic, and no dispersal scenarios, we carried out projections of future distribution over the 21st century for 287 mountain plant species in a study area of the Western Swiss Alps. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (unlimited dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events) and under four climate change scenarios. Although simulations accounting for realistic dispersal limitations did significantly differ from those considering dispersal as unlimited or null in terms of projected future distribution, using the unlimited dispersal simplification nevertheless provided good approximations for species extinctions under more moderate climate change scenarios. Overall, simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our mountainous study area, results that were significantly closer to unlimited dispersal than to no dispersal. Finally, analyzing the temporal pattern of species extinctions over the entire 21st century showed that, due to the possibility of a large number of species shifting their distribution to higher elevation, important species extinctions for our study area might not occur before the 2080-2100 time periods.

Ecological-economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change

Substantial investment in climate change research has led to dire predictions of the impacts and risks to biodiversity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report(1) cites 28,586 studies demonstrating significant biological changes in terrestrial systems(2). Already high extinction rates, driven primarily by habitat loss, are predicted to increase under climate change(3-6). Yet there is little specific advice or precedent in the literature to guide climate adaptation investment for conserving biodiversity within realistic economic constraints(7). Here we present a systematic ecological and economic analysis of a climate adaptation problem in one of the world's most species-rich and threatened ecosystems: the South African fynbos. We discover a counterintuitive optimal investment strategy that switches twice between options as the available adaptation budget increases. We demonstrate that optimal investment is nonlinearly dependent on available resources, making the choice of how much to invest as important as determining where to invest and what actions to take. Our study emphasizes the importance of a sound analytical framework for prioritizing adaptation investments(4). Integrating ecological predictions in an economic decision framework will help support complex choices between adaptation options under severe uncertainty. Our prioritization method can be applied at any scale to minimize species loss and to evaluate the robustness of decisions to uncertainty about key assumptions.

Growth of and partitioning between shoot and storage root of carrot in a northern climate

Selostus: Porkkanan kasvu ja biomassan jakautuminen varastojuuren ja verson välillä pohjoisissa oloissa

Benthic macroinvertebrates assemblages and macrohabitat connectivity in Mediterranean-climate streams of northern California

Abstract. Drought leads to a loss of longitudinal and lateral hydrologic connectivity, which causes direct or indirect changes in stream ecosystem properties. Changes in macrohabitat availability from a rifflepool sequence to isolated pools are among the most conspicuous consequences of connectivity loss. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were compared among 3 distinct stream macrohabitats (riffles [R], pools connected to riffles [Pc], disconnected pools [Pd]) of 19 Mediterranean-climate sites in northern California to examine the influence of loss of habitat resulting from drought disturbance. At the time of sampling, 10 sites were perennial and included R and Pc macrohabitats, whereas 9 sites were intermittent and included only Pd macrohabitats. Taxa richness was more variable in Pd, and taxa richness was significantly lower in Pd than in Pc but not R. These results suggested a decline in richness between Pc and Pd that might be associated with loss of connectivity. Lower Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) richness relative to Odonata, Coleoptera, and Heteroptera (OCH) richness was observed for Pd than R and Pc macrohabitats. Family composition was more similar between R and Pc than between R or Pc and Pd macrohabitats. This similarity may be associated with greater connectivity between R and Pc macrohabitats. Correspondence analysis indicated that macroinvertebrate composition changed along a gradient from R to Pc and Pd that was related to a perennialintermittent gradient across sites. High variability among macroinvertebrate assemblages in Pd could have been related to variability in the duration of intermittency. In cluster analysis, macroinvertebrate assemblages were grouped by macrohabitat first and then by site, suggesting that the macrohabitat filter had a greater influence on macroinvertebrate assemblages than did local site characteristics. Few taxa were found exclusively in Pc, and this macrohabitat shared numerous taxa with R and Pd, indicating that Pc may act as a bridge between R and Pd during drought. Drought is regarded as a ramp disturbance, but our results suggest that the response of macroinvertebrate assemblages to the loss of hydrological connectivity among macrohabitats is gradual, at least in Mediterranean-climate streams where drying is gradual. However, the changes may be more dramatic in arid and semiarid streams or in Mediterranean-climate streams if drying is rapid.

Iowa Finance AuthorityPerformance Report, FY2004

Agency Performance Report

Iowa Finance Authority Performance Report, FY2005

Agency Performance Report

Iowa Finance Authority Performance Report, FY2006

Agency Performance Report

Iowa Finance Authority Performance Report, FY2007

Agency Performance Report