Terrestrial Radar Interferometric Measurement of Hillslope Deformation and Atmospheric Disturbances in the Illgraben Debris-Flow Catchment, Switzerland

We describe a method for rapid identification and precise quantification of slope deformation using a portable radar interferometer. A rockslide with creep-like behavior was identified in the rugged and inaccessible headwaters of the Illgraben debris-flow catchment, located in the Central Swiss Alps. The estimated volume of the moving rock mass was approximately 0.5 x 10(6) m(3) with a maximum daily (3-D) displacement rate of 3 mm. Fast scene acquisition in the order of 6 s/scene led to uniquely precise mapping of spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric phase delay. Observations led to a simple qualitative model for prediction of atmospheric disturbances using a simple model for solar radiation, which can be used for advanced campaign planning for short observation periods (hours to days).

A high-resolution map of direct and indirect connectivity of erosion risk areas to surface waters in Switzerland: A risk assessment tool for planning and policy-making

Off-site effects of soil erosion are becoming increasingly important, particularly the pollution of surface waters. In order to develop environmentally efficient and cost effective mitigation options it is essential to identify areas that bear both a high erosion risk and high connectivity to surface waters. This paper introduces a simple risk assessment tool that allows the delineation of potential critical source areas (CSA) of sediment input into surface waters concerning the agricultural areas of Switzerland. The basis are the erosion risk map with a 2 m resolution (ERM2) and the drainage network, which is extended by drained roads, farm tracks, and slope depressions. The probability of hydrological and sedimentological connectivity is assessed by combining soil erosion risk and extended drainage network with flow distance calculation. A GIS-environment with multiple-flow accumulation algorithms is used for routing runoff generation and flow pathways. The result is a high resolution connectivity map of the agricultural area of Switzerland (888,050 ha). Fifty-five percent of the computed agricultural area is potentially connected with surface waters, 45% is not connected. Surprisingly, the larger part of 34% (62% of the connected area) is indirectly connected with surface waters through drained roads, and only 21% are directly connected. The reason is the topographic complexity and patchiness of the landscape due to a dense road and drainage network. A total of 24% of the connected area and 13% of the computed agricultural area, respectively, are rated with a high connectivity probability. On these CSA an adapted land use is recommended, supported by vegetated buffer strips preventing sediment load. Even areas that are far away from open water bodies can be indirectly connected and need to be included in planning of mitigation measures. Thus, the connectivity map presented is an important decision-making tool for policy-makers and extension services. The map is published on the web and thus available for application.

Images of a groundwater flow system in Nicaragua

Conceptualization of groundwater flow systems is necessary for water resources planning. Geophysical, hydrochemical and isotopic characterization methods were used to investigate the groundwater flow system of a multi-layer fractured sedimentary aquifer along the coastline in Southwestern Nicaragua. A geologic survey was performed along the 46 km2 catchment. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) was applied along a 4.4 km transect parallel to the main river channel to identify fractures and determine aquifer geometry. Additionally, three cross sections in the lower catchment and two in hillslopes of the upper part of the catchment were surveyed using ERT. Stable water isotopes, chloride and silica were analyzed for springs, river, wells and piezometers samples during the dry and wet season of 2012. Indication of moisture recycling was found although the identification of the source areas needs further investigation. The upper-middle catchment area is formed by fractured shale/limestone on top of compact sandstone. The lower catchment area is comprised of an alluvial unit of about 15 m thickness overlaying a fractured shale unit. Two major groundwater flow systems were identified: one deep in the shale unit, recharged in the upper-middle catchment area; and one shallow, flowing in the alluvium unit and recharged locally in the lower catchment area. Recharged precipitation displaces older groundwater along the catchment, in a piston flow mechanism. Geophysical methods in combination with hydrochemical and isotopic tracers provide information over different scales and resolutions, which allow an integrated analysis of groundwater flow systems. This approach provides integrated surface and subsurface information where remoteness, accessibility, and costs prohibit installation of groundwater monitoring networks.

Airport Taxi Planning: Lagrangian Decomposition

The airport taxi planning (TP) module is a decision tool intended to guide airport surface management operations. TP is defined by a flow network optimization model that represents flight ground movements and improves aircraft taxiing routes and schedules during periods of aircraft congestion. TP is not intended to operate as a stand‐alone tool for airport operations management: on the contrary, it must be used in conjunction with existing departing and arriving traffic tools and overseen by the taxi planner of the airport, also known as the aircraft ground controller. TP must be flexible in order to accommodate changing inputs while maintaining consistent routes and schedules already delivered from past executions. Within this dynamic environment, the execution time of TP may not exceed a few minutes. Classic methods for solving binary multi‐commodity flow networks with side constraints are not efficient enough; therefore, a Lagrangian decomposition methodology has been adapted to solve it. We demonstrate TP Lagrangian decomposition using actual data from the Madrid‐Barajas Airport

The Strategic Planning of EU Military Operations - The Case of EUFOR TCHAD / RCA. IES WORKING PAPER 5/2008

On 28 January 2008 the European Union launched the military operation EUFOR in Chad and the Central African Republic. Its mandate was to contribute to the security of the civilian population, the numerous refugees from neighboring Darfur and the local presence of the United Nations. This paper describes and analyses the planning process of this operation at the political-strategic and military-strategic levels with the aim of understanding how the military instrument was intended to generate the desired political effects. The paper argues that, from a military perspective, the EUFOR operation is based on the concept of humanitarian deterrence: the threat of military force is used to discourage potential spoilers from targeting the civilian population. As with any military operation, the planning of EUFOR was plagued by various elements of friction. At least some of this friction seems to flow from the mismatch in expectations between the political-strategic and military-strategic levels. The various political and military-technical constraints within which the operation was planned resulted in an operational posture that is less decisive than what the political ambitions would have suggested.

Consequences of small sample 0-D data collection in the transportation planning process /

Mode of access: Internet.

Guidelines for designing travel surveys for statewide transportation planning /

Mode of access: Internet.

Intelligent execution monitoring and error analysis in planning involving processes

An intelligent agent, operating in an external world which cannot be fully described in its internal world model, must be able to monitor the success of a previously generated plan and to respond to any errors which may have occurred. The process of error analysis requires the ability to reason in an expert fashion about time and about processes occurring in the world. Reasoning about time is needed to deal with causality. Reasoning about processes is needed since the direct effects of a plan action can be completely specified when the plan is generated, but the indirect effects cannot. For example, the action `open tap' leads with certainty to `tap open', whereas whether there will be a fluid flow and how long it might last is more difficult to predict. The majority of existing planning systems cannot handle these kinds of reasoning, thus limiting their usefulness. This thesis argues that both kinds of reasoning require a complex internal representation of the world. The use of Qualitative Process Theory and an interval-based representation of time are proposed as a representation scheme for such a world model. The planning system which was constructed has been tested on a set of realistic planning scenarios. It is shown that even simple planning problems, such as making a cup of coffee, require extensive reasoning if they are to be carried out successfully. The final Chapter concludes that the planning system described does allow the correct solution of planning problems involving complex side effects, which planners up to now have been unable to solve.

Industrial new product planning:a study of the sources of new product ideas and the development of new product proposals in the UK computer industry

This thesis presents a study of the sources of new product ideas and the development of new product proposals in an organisation in the UK Computer Industry. The thesis extends the work of von Hippel by showing how the phenomenon which he describes as "the Customer Active Paradigm for new product idea generation" can be observed to operate in this Industry. Furthermore, this thesis contrasts his Customer Active Paradigm with the more usually encountered Manufacturer Active Paradigm. In a second area, the thesis draws a number of conclusions relating to methods of market research, confirming existing observations and demonstrating the suitability of flexible interview strategies in certain circumstances. The thesis goes on to demonstrate the importance of free information flow within the organisation, making it more likely that sought and unsought opportunities can be exploited. It is shown that formal information flows and documents are a necessary but not sufficient means of influencing the formation of the organisation's dominant ideas on new product areas. The findings also link the work of Tushman and Katz on the role of "Gatekeepers" with the work of von Hippel by showing that the role of gatekeeper is particularly appropriate and useful to an organisation changing from Customer Active to Manufacturer Active methods of idea generation. Finally, the thesis provides conclusions relating to the exploitation of specific new product opportunities facing the sponsoring organisation.

Hierarchical approach to project planning:the case of a petroleum pipeline construction

Projects exposed to an uncertain environment must be adapted to deal with the effective integration of various planning elements and the optimization of project parameters. Time, cost, and quality are the prime objectives of a project that need to be optimized to fulfill the owner's goal. In an uncertain environment, there exist many other conflicting objectives that may also need to be optimized. These objectives are characterized by varying degrees of conflict. Moreover, an uncertain environment also causes several changes in the project plan throughout its life, demanding that the project plan be totally flexible. Goal programming (GP), a multiple criteria decision making technique, offers a good solution for this project planning problem. There the planning problem is considered from the owner's perspective, which leads to classifying the project up to the activity level. GP is applied separately at each level, and the formulated models are integrated through information flow. The flexibility and adaptability of the models lies in the ease of updating the model parameters at the required level through changing priorities and/or constraints and transmitting the information to other levels. The hierarchical model automatically provides integration among various element of planning. The proposed methodology is applied in this paper to plan a petroleum pipeline construction project, and its effectiveness is demonstrated.

The impact of information technology on organizations: A study of enterprise resource planning system influences on job design and organizational culture

The primary purpose of this research is to study the linkage between perceived job design characteristics and information system environment characteristics before and after the replacement of a legacy information system with a new type of information system (referred to as an Enterprise Resource Planning or ERP system). A public state University implementing an academic version of an ERP system was selected for the study. Three survey instruments were used to examine the perception of the information system, the job characteristics, and the organizational culture before and after the system implementation. The research participants included two large departments resulting in a sample of 130 workers. Research questions were analyzed using multivariate procedures including factor analysis, path analysis, step-wise regression, and matched pair analysis. ^ Results indicated that the ERP system has introduced new elements into the working environment that has changed the perception of how the job design characteristics and organization culture dimensions are viewed by the workers. The understanding of how the perceived system characteristics align with an individual's perceived job design characteristics is supported by each of the system characteristics significantly correlated in the proposed direction. The stronger support of this relationship becomes visible in the causal flow of the effects seen in the path diagram and in the step-wise regression. The perceived job design characteristics aligning with dimensions of organizational culture are not as strong as the literature suggests. Although there are significant correlations between the job and culture variables, only one relationship can be seen in the causal flow. ^ This research has demonstrated that system characteristics of ERP do contribute to the perception of change in an organization and do support organizational culture behaviors and job characteristics. ^

Eulerian-Lagrangian two phase debris flow model

The main objective of this work is to develop a quasi three-dimensional numerical model to simulate stony debris flows, considering a continuum fluid phase, composed by water and fine sediments, and a non-continuum phase including large particles, such as pebbles and boulders. Large particles are treated in a Lagrangian frame of reference using the Discrete Element Method, the fluid phase is based on the Eulerian approach, using the Finite Element Method to solve the depth-averaged Navier-Stokes equations in two horizontal dimensions. The particle’s equations of motion are in three dimensions. The model simulates particle-particle collisions and wall-particle collisions, taking into account that particles are immersed in a fluid. Bingham and Cross rheological models are used for the continuum phase. Both formulations provide very stable results, even in the range of very low shear rates. Bingham formulation is better able to simulate the stopping stage of the fluid when applied shear stresses are low. Results of numerical simulations have been compared with data from laboratory experiments on a flume-fan prototype. Results show that the model is capable of simulating the motion of big particles moving in the fluid flow, handling dense particulate flows and avoiding overlap among particles. An application to simulate debris flow events that occurred in Northern Venezuela in 1999 shows that the model could replicate the main boulder accumulation areas that were surveyed by the USGS. Uniqueness of this research is the integration of mud flow and stony debris movement in a single modeling tool that can be used for planning and management of debris flow prone areas.

Improving Analytical Travel Time Estimation for Transportation Planning Models

This dissertation aimed to improve travel time estimation for the purpose of transportation planning by developing a travel time estimation method that incorporates the effects of signal timing plans, which were difficult to consider in planning models. For this purpose, an analytical model has been developed. The model parameters were calibrated based on data from CORSIM microscopic simulation, with signal timing plans optimized using the TRANSYT-7F software. Independent variables in the model are link length, free-flow speed, and traffic volumes from the competing turning movements. The developed model has three advantages compared to traditional link-based or node-based models. First, the model considers the influence of signal timing plans for a variety of traffic volume combinations without requiring signal timing information as input. Second, the model describes the non-uniform spatial distribution of delay along a link, this being able to estimate the impacts of queues at different upstream locations of an intersection and attribute delays to a subject link and upstream link. Third, the model shows promise of improving the accuracy of travel time prediction. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 13% for a set of field data from Minnesota Department of Transportation (MDOT); this is close to the MAPE of uniform delay in the HCM 2000 method (11%). The HCM is the industrial accepted analytical model in the existing literature, but it requires signal timing information as input for calculating delays. The developed model also outperforms the HCM 2000 method for a set of Miami-Dade County data that represent congested traffic conditions, with a MAPE of 29%, compared to 31% of the HCM 2000 method. The advantages of the proposed model make it feasible for application to a large network without the burden of signal timing input, while improving the accuracy of travel time estimation. An assignment model with the developed travel time estimation method has been implemented in a South Florida planning model, which improved assignment results.

Planning Buy-Sell Agreements In The Hospitality Industry

In the article - Planning Buy-Sell Agreements In The Hospitality Industry - by John M. Tarras, Assistant Professor, School of Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Management at Michigan State University, the author initially observes: “The vast majority of hospitality firms (restaurants, hotels, etc.) would be considered closely-held corporations. As such, they have unique planning problems compared to large, publicly-traded hospitality firms. One area of special concern to the closely-held hospitality firm is the planning and adoption of a buy-sell agreement.” The above thesis statement outlines the heart of the article; the buy-sell agreement in regard to smaller [closely held, as Tarras calls them] corporations. The theory is narrow and pro-active, spanning the gap between personal-to-corporate stock manipulations. “The primary purpose of a buy-sell agreement is to contribute to the orderly transfer of a shareholder's stock in a hospitality firm upon some future incident [typically retirement, withdrawal of a shareholder, disability, or death], as Tarras defines the concept. “The hospitality firm or the other shareholders would be committed to purchase the departing shareholder's stock at an agreed upon price and method, and to ensure that ample cash will be obtainable for such an impending sale. The buy-sell agreement provides a market for the shareholder or the shareholder's estate for the sale of otherwise illiquid stock,” the author further provides as canons of buy-sell agreements. In defining the buy-sell agreement with restrictive clauses, Tarras demonstrates, “…many closely-held hospitality firms desire to limit ownership to those individuals, either family or principal corporate employees, who are essential to the well-being of the firm.” Tarras says, another element of the buy-sell agreement is to furnish the departing shareholder with liquidity. “…there typically is some form of cash down payment with the remainder denoted by an interest-bearing promissory note [usually 5 to 15 years],” he informs. “The departing shareholders may require that the hospitality firm pledge the assets of the firm and that the remaining shareholders personally guarantee the promissory note.” “…the most frequent reason for establishing buy-sell agreements is for estate planning purposes,” Tarras says. There are tax advantages and liabilities for both the seller and buyer of stock via the buy-sell agreement, and the author enumerates many of these. One, big advantage of the buy-sell agreement is that it provides for the running of the company with a minimum of disruption through the stock-cash transition process, Tarras offers.

Eulerian-Lagrangian Two Phase Debris Flow Model

The main objective of this work is to develop a quasi three-dimensional numerical model to simulate stony debris flows, considering a continuum fluid phase, composed by water and fine sediments, and a non-continuum phase including large particles, such as pebbles and boulders. Large particles are treated in a Lagrangian frame of reference using the Discrete Element Method, the fluid phase is based on the Eulerian approach, using the Finite Element Method to solve the depth-averaged Navier–Stokes equations in two horizontal dimensions. The particle’s equations of motion are in three dimensions. The model simulates particle-particle collisions and wall-particle collisions, taking into account that particles are immersed in a fluid. Bingham and Cross rheological models are used for the continuum phase. Both formulations provide very stable results, even in the range of very low shear rates. Bingham formulation is better able to simulate the stopping stage of the fluid when applied shear stresses are low. Results of numerical simulations have been compared with data from laboratory experiments on a flume-fan prototype. Results show that the model is capable of simulating the motion of big particles moving in the fluid flow, handling dense particulate flows and avoiding overlap among particles. An application to simulate debris flow events that occurred in Northern Venezuela in 1999 shows that the model could replicate the main boulder accumulation areas that were surveyed by the USGS. Uniqueness of this research is the integration of mud flow and stony debris movement in a single modeling tool that can be used for planning and management of debris flow prone areas.