Periodic autoregressive moving average models for the analysis of streamflow [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Streamflow values show definite seasonal patterns in their month-to-month correlation structure. The structure also seems to vary as a function of the type of stream (coastal versus mountain or humid versus arid region). The standard autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model is incapable of reproducing this correlation structure. ... A periodic ARMA time series model is one in which an ARMA model is fitted to each month or season but the parameters of the model are constrained to be periodic according to a Fourier series. This constraint greatly reduces the number of parameters but still leaves the flexibility for matching the seasonally varying correlograms.

Spatial and temporal patterns of coral bleaching around Buck Island Reef National Monument, St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands

Since 2001, biannual fish and habitat monitoring has been conducted for the shallow (> 30 m), colonized pavement and gorgonian dominated Buck Island Reef National Monument (BIRNM) St. Croix, USVI and adjacent waters. during October, 2005, widespread coral bleaching was observed within the ∼50 square-kilometer study area that was preceded by 10 wks of higher than average water temperatures (28.9–30.1 °C). Random transects (100 square meters) were conducted on linear reefs, patch reefs, bedrock, pavement, and scattered coral/rock habitats during October 2005, and April and October 2006, and species specific bleaching patterns were documented. During October 2005 approximately 51% of live coral cover was bleached. Nineteen of 23 coral species within 16 genera and two hydrocoral species exhibited signs of bleaching. Coral cover for Montastraea annularis and species of the genus Agaricia were the most affected, while other species exhibited variability in their susceptibility to bleaching. Bleaching was evident at all depths (1.5–28 m), was negatively correlated with depth, and positively correlated with habitat complexity. Bleaching was less prevalent at all depths and habitat types upon subsequent monitoring during April (15%) and October (3%) 2006. Four species and one genus did not exhibit signs of bleaching throughout the study period (Dendrogyra cylindrus, Eusmilia fastigata, Mussa angulosa, Mycetophyllia aliciae, Scolymia spp.).