Conceptual models for designing information systems supporting the strategic analysis of technology environments

1 6 STRUCTURE OF THIS THESIS -Chapter I presents the motivations of this dissertation by illustrating two gaps in the current body of knowledge that are worth filling, describes the research problem addressed by this thesis and presents the research methodology used to achieve this goal. -Chapter 2 shows a review of the existing literature showing that environment analysis is a vital strategic task, that it shall be supported by adapted information systems, and that there is thus a need for developing a conceptual model of the environment that provides a reference framework for better integrating the various existing methods and a more formal definition of the various aspect to support the development of suitable tools. -Chapter 3 proposes a conceptual model that specifies the various enviromnental aspects that are relevant for strategic decision making, how they relate to each other, and ,defines them in a more formal way that is more suited for information systems development. -Chapter 4 is dedicated to the evaluation of the proposed model on the basis of its application to a concrete environment to evaluate its suitability to describe the current conditions and potential evolution of a real environment and get an idea of its usefulness. -Chapter 5 goes a step further by assembling a toolbox describing a set of methods that can be used to analyze the various environmental aspects put forward by the model and by providing more detailed specifications for a number of them to show how our model can be used to facilitate their implementation as software tools. -Chapter 6 describes a prototype of a strategic decision support tool that allow the analysis of some of the aspects of the environment that are not well supported by existing tools and namely to analyze the relationship between multiple actors and issues. The usefulness of this prototype is evaluated on the basis of its application to a concrete environment. -Chapter 7 finally concludes this thesis by making a summary of its various contributions and by proposing further interesting research directions.

The Road to Recovery: A New Approach to Tackling Scotland's Drug Problem

The Scottish National Drugs Strategy requires the 22 regional Drug Action Teams to prepare and submit to the Scottish Executive annual action plans for tackling drug misuse in their areas. These plans should address national and local priorities, including their contribution to the achievement of national targets. These comprise three parts: Part A provides an overview of the DAT structures and working; Part B provides detailed information on current local services and Part C reports plans for 2003/04.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Embodied Autonomy in Digital Ecosystems: From Bio-Inspired Agents to Cognitive Systems

This paper proposes to promote autonomy in digital ecosystems so that it provides agents with information to improve the behavior of the digital ecosystem in terms of stability. This work proposes that, in digital ecosystems, autonomous agents can provide fundamental services and information. The final goal is to run the ecosystem, generate novel conditions and let agents exploit them. A set of evaluation measures must be defined as well. We want to provide an outline of some global indicators, such as heterogeneity and diversity, and establish relationships between agent behavior and these global indicators to fully understand interactions between agents, and to understand the dependence and autonomy relations that emerge between the interacting agents. Individual variations, interaction dependencies, and environmental factors are determinants of autonomy that would be considered. The paper concludes with a discussion of situations when autonomy is a milestone

Principal components of functional connectivity: A new approach to study dynamic brain connectivity during rest.

Functional connectivity (FC) as measured by correlation between fMRI BOLD time courses of distinct brain regions has revealed meaningful organization of spontaneous fluctuations in the resting brain. However, an increasing amount of evidence points to non-stationarity of FC; i.e., FC dynamically changes over time reflecting additional and rich information about brain organization, but representing new challenges for analysis and interpretation. Here, we propose a data-driven approach based on principal component analysis (PCA) to reveal hidden patterns of coherent FC dynamics across multiple subjects. We demonstrate the feasibility and relevance of this new approach by examining the differences in dynamic FC between 13 healthy control subjects and 15 minimally disabled relapse-remitting multiple sclerosis patients. We estimated whole-brain dynamic FC of regionally-averaged BOLD activity using sliding time windows. We then used PCA to identify FC patterns, termed "eigenconnectivities", that reflect meaningful patterns in FC fluctuations. We then assessed the contributions of these patterns to the dynamic FC at any given time point and identified a network of connections centered on the default-mode network with altered contribution in patients. Our results complement traditional stationary analyses, and reveal novel insights into brain connectivity dynamics and their modulation in a neurodegenerative disease.

Aitchison Geometry for Probability and Likelihood as a new approach to mathematical statistics

The Aitchison vector space structure for the simplex is generalized to a Hilbert space structure A2(P) for distributions and likelihoods on arbitrary spaces. Centralnotations of statistics, such as Information or Likelihood, can be identified in the algebraical structure of A2(P) and their corresponding notions in compositional data analysis, such as Aitchison distance or centered log ratio transform.In this way very elaborated aspects of mathematical statistics can be understoodeasily in the light of a simple vector space structure and of compositional data analysis. E.g. combination of statistical information such as Bayesian updating,combination of likelihood and robust M-estimation functions are simple additions/perturbations in A2(Pprior). Weighting observations corresponds to a weightedaddition of the corresponding evidence.Likelihood based statistics for general exponential families turns out to have aparticularly easy interpretation in terms of A2(P). Regular exponential families formfinite dimensional linear subspaces of A2(P) and they correspond to finite dimensionalsubspaces formed by their posterior in the dual information space A2(Pprior).The Aitchison norm can identified with mean Fisher information. The closing constant itself is identified with a generalization of the cummulant function and shown to be Kullback Leiblers directed information. Fisher information is the local geometry of the manifold induced by the A2(P) derivative of the Kullback Leibler information and the space A2(P) can therefore be seen as the tangential geometry of statistical inference at the distribution P.The discussion of A2(P) valued random variables, such as estimation functionsor likelihoods, give a further interpretation of Fisher information as the expected squared norm of evidence and a scale free understanding of unbiased reasoning

The effects of poor financial information systems on the long term sustainability of local public services. Empirical evidence from the Catalan Municipalities

In this paper we describe the existence of financial illusion in public accountingand we comment on its effects for the future sustainability of local publicservices. We relate these features to the lack of incentives amongst publicmanagers for improving the financial reporting and thus management of publicassets. Financial illusion pays off for politicians and managers since it allowsfor larger public expenditure increases and managerial slack, these beingarguments in their utility functions. This preference is strengthen by the shorttime perspective of politically appointed public managers. Both factors runagainst public accountability. This hypothesis is tested for Spain by using anunique sample. We take data from around forty Catalan local authorities withpopulation above 20,000 for the financial years 1993-98. We build this databasis from the Catalan Auditing Office Reports in a way that it can be linkedto some other local social and economic variables in order to test ourassumptions. The results confirm that there is a statistical relationship between the financialillusion index (FI as constructed in the paper) and higher current expenditure.This reflects on important overruns and increases of the delay in payingsuppliers, as well as on a higher difficulties to face capital finance. Mechanismsfor FI creation have to do among other factors, with delays in paying suppliers(and thereafter higher future financial costs per unit of service), no adequateprovision for bad debts and lack of appropriate capital funding either forreposition or for new equipments. For this, it is crucial to monitor the way inwhich capital transfers are accounted in local public sheet balances. As a result,for most of the Municipalities we analyse, the funds for guaranteeing continuityand sustainability of public services provision are today at risk.Given managerial incentives at present in public institutions, we conclude thatpublic regulation recently enforced for assuring better information systems inlocal public management may not be enough to change the current state of affairs.

A dilution cost approach to financial intermediation and securities markets

This paper proposes a model of financial markets and corporate finance,with asymmetric information and no taxes, where equity issues, Bankdebt and Bond financing may all co-exist in equilibrium. The paperemphasizes the relationship Banking aspect of financial intermediation:firms turn to banks as a source of investment mainly because banks aregood at helping them through times of financial distress. The debtrestructuring service that banks may offer, however, is costly. Therefore,the firms which do not expect to be financially distressed prefer toobtain a cheaper market source of funding through bond or equity issues.This explains why bank lending and bond financing may co-exist inequilibrium. The reason why firms or banks also issue equity in our modelis simply to avoid bankruptcy. Banks have the additional motive that theyneed to satisfy minimum capital adequacy requeriments. Several types ofequilibria are possible, one of which has all the main characteristics ofa "credit crunch". This multiplicity implies that the channels of monetarypolicy may depend on the type of equilibrium that prevails, leadingsometimes to support a "credit view" and other times the classical "moneyview".

Management information systems: The balanced scorecard in Spanish public universities

Organisations are becoming increasingly aware of the need for management information systems, due largely to the changing environment and a continuous process of globalisation. All of this means that managers need to adapt the structures of their organisations to the changes and, therefore, to plan, control and manage better. The Spanish public university cannot avoid this changing (demographic, economic and social changes) and globalising (among them the convergence of European qualifications) environment, to which we must add the complex organisation structure, characterised by a high dispersion of authority for decision making in different collegiate and unipersonal organs. It seems obvious that these changes must have repercussions on the direction, organisation and management structures of those public higher education institutions, and it seems natural that, given this environment, the universities must adapt their present management systems to the demand by society for the quality and suitability of the services they provide.

SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC: A new approach to mathematical 3D forward simulation modelling for terrigenous and carbonate marine sedimentation

Most sedimentary modelling programs developed in recent years focus on either terrigenous or carbonate marine sedimentation. Nevertheless, only a few programs have attempted to consider mixed terrigenous-carbonate sedimentation, and most of these are two-dimensional, which is a major restriction since geological processes take place in 3D. This paper presents the basic concepts of a new 3D mathematical forward simulation model for clastic sediments, which was developed from SIMSAFADIM, a previous 3D carbonate sedimentation model. The new extended model, SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC, simulates processes of autochthonous marine carbonate production and accumulation, together with clastic transport and sedimentation in three dimensions of both carbonate and terrigenous sediments. Other models and modelling strategies may also provide realistic and efficient tools for prediction of stratigraphic architecture and facies distribution of sedimentary deposits. However, SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC becomes an innovative model that attempts to simulate different sediment types using a process-based approach, therefore being a useful tool for 3D prediction of stratigraphic architecture and facies distribution in sedimentary basins. This model is applied to the neogene Vallès-Penedès half-graben (western Mediterranean, NE Spain) to show the capacity of the program when applied to a realistic geologic situation involving interactions between terrigenous clastics and carbonate sediments.

Phase-field approach to spatial perturbations in normal Saffman-Taylor fingers

We make a numerical study of the effect that spatial perturbations have in normal Saffman-Taylor fingers driven at constant pressure gradients. We use a phase field model that allows for spatial variations in the Hele-Shaw cell. We find that, regardless of the specific way in which spatial perturbations are introduced, a lateral instability develops on the sides of the propagating Saffman-Taylor finger. Moreover, the instability exists regardless of the intensity of spatial perturbations in the cell as long as the perturbations are felt by the finger tip. If, as the finger propagates, the spatial perturbations felt by the tip change, the instability is nonperiodic. If, as the finger propagates, the spatial perturbations felt by the tip are persistent, the instability developed is periodic. In the later case, the instability is symmetrical or asymmetrical depending on the intensity of the perturbation.

Phenomenological approach to nonlinear Langevin equations

In this paper we address the problem of consistently constructing Langevin equations to describe fluctuations in nonlinear systems. Detailed balance severely restricts the choice of the random force, but we prove that this property, together with the macroscopic knowledge of the system, is not enough to determine all the properties of the random force. If the cause of the fluctuations is weakly coupled to the fluctuating variable, then the statistical properties of the random force can be completely specified. For variables odd under time reversal, microscopic reversibility and weak coupling impose symmetry relations on the variable-dependent Onsager coefficients. We then analyze the fluctuations in two cases: Brownian motion in position space and an asymmetric diode, for which the analysis based in the master equation approach is known. We find that, to the order of validity of the Langevin equation proposed here, the phenomenological theory is in agreement with the results predicted by more microscopic models

Insight into oversight : how information commissioners contribute to the achievement of access-to-information policy objectives

This thesis examines how oversight bodies, as part of an ATI policy, contribute to the achievement of the policy's objectives. The aim of the thesis is to see how oversight bodies and the work they do affects the implementation of their respective ATI policies and thereby contributes to the objectives of those policies using a comparative case study approach. The thesis investigates how federal/central government level information commissioners in four jurisdictions - Germany, India, Scotland, and Switzerland - enforce their respective ATI policies, which tasks they carry out in addition to their enforcement duties, the challenges they face in their work and the ways they overcome these. Qualitative data were gathered from primary and secondary documents as well as in 37 semi-structured interviews with staff of the commissioners' offices, administrative officials whose job entails complying with ATI, people who have made ATI requests and appealed to their respective oversight body, and external experts who have studied ATI implementation in their particular jurisdiction. The thesis finds that while the aspect of an oversight body's formal independence that has the greatest impact on its work is resource control and that although the powers granted by law set the framework for ensuring that the administration is properly complying with the policy, the commissioner's leadership style - a component of informal independence - has more influence than formal attributes of independence in setting out how resources are obtained and used as well as how staff set priorities and utilize the powers they are granted by law. The conclusion, therefore, is that an ATI oversight body's ability to contribute to the achievement of the policy's objectives is a function of three main factors: a. commissioner's leadership style; b. adequacy of resources and degree of control the organization has over them; c. powers and the exercise of discretion in using them. In effect, the thesis argues that it is difficult to pinpoint the value of the formal powers set out for the oversight body in the ATI law, and that their decisions on whether and how to use them are more important than the presumed strength of the powers. It also claims that the choices made by the commissioners and their staff regarding priorities and use of powers are determined to a large extent by the adequacy of resources and the degree of control the organization has over those resources. In turn, how the head of the organization leads and manages the oversight body is crucial to both the adequacy of the organization's resources and the decisions made about the use of powers. Together, these three factors have a significant impact on the body's effectiveness in contributing to ATI objectives.

An ultrastructural approach to analogies between fungal structures and needle fibre calcite

Needle fiber calcite (NFC) is an ubiquitous terrestrial secondary calcium carbonate mineral often associated with calcitic nanofibers. NFC's origin has been debated for a long time and a fungal origin is often proposed. Fungi are known to be involved in mineral weathering and production of metal oxalate, but little information exists regarding the genesis of other minerals, such as calcite. In this study, a comparison of similar ultrastructural characteristics of fungal hyphae and NFC has been performed to highlight analogies between both features. These analogies clearly demonstrate the probable close relationship between fungal filaments (hyphae and rhizomorphs) and NFC and its associated nanofibers.

SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC: A new approach to mathematical 3D forward simulation modelling for terrigenous and carbonate marine sedimentation

Most sedimentary modelling programs developed in recent years focus on either terrigenous or carbonate marine sedimentation. Nevertheless, only a few programs have attempted to consider mixed terrigenous-carbonate sedimentation, and most of these are two-dimensional, which is a major restriction since geological processes take place in 3D. This paper presents the basic concepts of a new 3D mathematical forward simulation model for clastic sediments, which was developed from SIMSAFADIM, a previous 3D carbonate sedimentation model. The new extended model, SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC, simulates processes of autochthonous marine carbonate production and accumulation, together with clastic transport and sedimentation in three dimensions of both carbonate and terrigenous sediments. Other models and modelling strategies may also provide realistic and efficient tools for prediction of stratigraphic architecture and facies distribution of sedimentary deposits. However, SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC becomes an innovative model that attempts to simulate different sediment types using a process-based approach, therefore being a useful tool for 3D prediction of stratigraphic architecture and facies distribution in sedimentary basins. This model is applied to the neogene Vallès-Penedès half-graben (western Mediterranean, NE Spain) to show the capacity of the program when applied to a realistic geologic situation involving interactions between terrigenous clastics and carbonate sediments.

Maximizing the Use of Roadway Weather Information Systems: Final Report, TR-404, 1998

This project was proposed as Phase I of a 2-phase program to evaluate the present use of weather information by Iowa Department of Transportation (IaDOT) personnel, recommend revised procedures, and then implement the resulting recommendations. Midway through Phase I (evaluation phase) the FORETELL project was funded. This project is a multi-state venture that engages the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Forecast Systems Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and proposes to supplant the current weather information-generation and distribution system with an advanced system based on state-of-the-art technologies. The focus of the present project was therefore refined to consider use of weather data by IaDOT personnel, and the training programs needed to more effectively use these data. Results of the survey revealed that two major areas - training of personnel on use of data from whatever source and more precise information of frost formation - are not addressed in the FORETELL project. These aspects have been the focus of the present project.