The Uniform World Model: A Methodology for Predicting the Health Impacts of Air Pollution

47 p.

Complexity of rupture propagation in large earthquakes in relation to tectonic environment

Complexity in the earthquake rupture process can result from many factors. This study investigates the origin of such complexity by examining several recent, large earthquakes in detail. In each case the local tectonic environment plays an important role in understanding the source of the complexity.

Several large shallow earthquakes (M_s > 7.0) along the Middle American Trench have similarities and differences between them that may lead to a better understanding of fracture and subduction processes. They are predominantly thrust events consistent with the known subduction of the Cocos plate beneath N. America. Two events occurring along this subduction zone close to triple junctions show considerable complexity. This may be attributable to a more heterogeneous stress environment in these regions and as such has implications for other subduction zone boundaries.

An event which looks complex but is actually rather simple is the 1978 Bermuda earthquake (M_s ~ 6). It is located predominantly in the mantle. Its mechanism is one of pure thrust faulting with a strike N 20°W and dip 42°NE. Its apparent complexity is caused by local crustal structure. This is an important event in terms of understanding and estimating seismic hazard on the eastern seaboard of N. America.

A study of several large strike-slip continental earthquakes identifies characteristics which are common to them and may be useful in determining what to expect from the next great earthquake on the San Andreas fault. The events are the 1976 Guatemala earthquake on the Motagua fault and two events on the Anatolian fault in Turkey (the 1967, Mudurnu Valley and 1976, E. Turkey events). An attempt to model the complex P-waveforms of these events results in good synthetic fits for the Guatemala and Mudurnu Valley events. However, the E. Turkey event proves to be too complex as it may have associated thrust or normal faulting. Several individual sources occurring at intervals of between 5 and 20 seconds characterize the Guatemala and Mudurnu Valley events. The maximum size of an individual source appears to be bounded at about 5 x 10²⁶ dyne-cm. A detailed source study including directivity is performed on the Guatemala event. The source time history of the Mudurnu Valley event illustrates its significance in modeling strong ground motion in the near field. The complex source time series of the 1967 event produces amplitudes greater by a factor of 2.5 than a uniform model scaled to the same size for a station 20 km from the fault.

Three large and important earthquakes demonstrate an important type of complexity --- multiple-fault complexity. The first, the 1976 Philippine earthquake, an oblique thrust event, represents the first seismological evidence for a northeast dipping subduction zone beneath the island of Mindanao. A large event, following the mainshock by 12 hours, occurred outside the aftershock area and apparently resulted from motion on a subsidiary fault since the event had a strike-slip mechanism.

An aftershock of the great 1960 Chilean earthquake on June 6, 1960, proved to be an interesting discovery. It appears to be a large strike-slip event at the main rupture's southern boundary. It most likely occurred on the landward extension of the Chile Rise transform fault, in the subducting plate. The results for this event suggest that a small event triggered a series of slow events; the duration of the whole sequence being longer than 1 hour. This is indeed a "slow earthquake".

Perhaps one of the most complex of events is the recent Tangshan, China event. It began as a large strike-slip event. Within several seconds of the mainshock it may have triggered thrust faulting to the south of the epicenter. There is no doubt, however, that it triggered a large oblique normal event to the northeast, 15 hours after the mainshock. This event certainly contributed to the great loss of life-sustained as a result of the Tangshan earthquake sequence.

What has been learned from these studies has been applied to predict what one might expect from the next great earthquake on the San Andreas. The expectation from this study is that such an event would be a large complex event, not unlike, but perhaps larger than, the Guatemala or Mudurnu Valley events. That is to say, it will most likely consist of a series of individual events in sequence. It is also quite possible that the event could trigger associated faulting on neighboring fault systems such as those occurring in the Transverse Ranges. This has important bearing on the earthquake hazard estimation for the region.

O sistema internacional pós-crise de 2008 e as relações China- Estados Unidos: uma análise em três frentes

As relações sino-americanas passaram a desempenhar um papel ordenador fundamental na condução dos assuntos internacionais neste século XXI, ao ponto de alguns analistas criarem o termo G-2. A crise financeira de 2008, por representar um golpe profundo nos países desenvolvidos e nos direcionamentos de valores do estágio atual de desenvolvimento do sistema, levou a relação China-Estados Unidos a um outro patamar. Ao passo que os norte-americanos tiveram de se preocupar em resolver as turbulências causadas na economia doméstica, o país asiático passou a desempenhar um papel crucial no processo de recuperação da economia global. O presente trabalho tem o objetivo, então, de analisar de que forma a crise de 2008, também chamada de crise do subprime, impactou os ordenamentos centrais do Sistema Internacional neste período de recuperação e como as relações sino-americanas podem ser usadas para uma melhor compreensão deste fenômeno. Na busca por traçar respostas mais sólidas, a pesquisa delineia-se em três frentes principais de análise: as relações diretas entre China e Estados Unidos; as relações dos dois países com um terceiro ator, a saber, a África; e os posicionamentos adotados por ambas as partes nas instituições multilaterais. Para tal, primeiro buscou-se aliar análises qualitativas e quantitativas, baseadas em instrumentais matemáticos e também na Ciência Política, História e Economia Política Internacional, para alcançar os resultados definidos nos objetivos da pesquisa. A dissertação é dividida em cinco capítulos, onde os três primeiros tratam de introduzir o assunto estudado e as principais vertentes teóricas utilizadas ao longo do trabalho. Os últimos envolvem a aplicação prática dos conceitos interdisciplinares escolhidos como aliados do trabalho empírico e a apresentação dos resultados finais. Em linhas gerais, concluiu-se que a crise acentuou os aspectos de interdependência entre China e Estados Unidos em todas as frentes estudadas. Avaliando as relações sino-americanas e os rumos do sistema internacional pós-crise em três facetas, concluímos também que tal exercício analítico ofereceu recursos mais palpáveis no fornecimento das respostas procuradas pela dissertação.

Meso-scale transboundary units for the management of coral reefs in the South China Sea area

Local communities and local government units are recognized as the primary stakeholders and participants in the management of coral reef resources and the primary beneficiaries of small-scale fishing activities in the nearshore areas of the coastal zone. The issues relating to the management of the coastal zone are multi-faceted and some issues are largely intertwined with national policy and development goals. Thus, national governments have jurisdiction over these nearshore coastal resources to harmonize policies, monitor resource use and provide incentives for sustainable use. However, the natural boundaries of these reef resources, the processes that support reef ecosystems, and the local or national affiliation of the people who benefit from them may transcend the boundaries of the local and national management units. Therefore, efforts to arrest the decline in fish catch and loss of biodiversity for reefs require management interventions and assessment activities to be carried out at varying scales. In Southeast Asia, some aspects of reef and reef resources management — particularly in deciding the allocation of catch among competing fisheries, development of sustainable harvest strategies, use of broodstock for restocking or stock enhancement programs, protection of nursery and spawning areas, designation of systems of marine protected areas, and the identification of representative, adequate and comprehensive areas for biodiversity conservation in the region — may require the definition of larger management units. At the regional level, multi-country initiatives will need to define units for the transboundary management of resources. The use of large marine ecosystems (LMEs) to identify and manage fisheries resources may be a starting point; however, given the relatively sedentary nature of coral reef-dwelling and reef-associated organisms compared with other pelagic and demersal species, meso-scale transboundary units within the LMEs have to be defined. This paper provides suggestions for transboundary management units for coral reef and reef-associated resources in Southeast Asia based on information from genetic structures of model organisms in the region. In addition, specific reef areas are identified, which may be important beyond their national boundaries, as potential sources of recruits.

Status and conservation of Reeves shad resources in China

An endangered fish species in China, Reeves shad (Tenualosa reversii), is finding hope of restoration and conservation in aquaculture and induced breeding efforts spearheaded by the Yangtze River Fisheries Management Commission. The history and sensitive traits of the Reeves shad are described featuring the species' life history, population dynamics and management of the Reeves shad resources.

Development, use and management of the Zhoushan fishing ground, China

The Zhoushan fishing area contains the Zhoushan archipelagos, whose population is nearly 1 million, including over 300,000 fishermen. A detailed account is given of the environment and its resources; there are more than 300 species of fish, over 60 species of shrimp, more than 10 species of crab and more than 50 species of algae in the area. The history of fishery development in the area is described, outlining motorization, technology, and education. Various regulations and management activities, implemented in the 1980s, are highlighted.

Paleoenvironmental records from the Quelccaya ice cap, Peru and preliminary results from the Dunde ice cap, China [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The 1000 year records of particulate deposition (soluble and insoluble), oxygen isotopic ratios, and net accumulation from the Quelccaya ice cap are presented. The net accumulation record from Quelccaya is shown to serve as a reasonable proxy for the water levels in Lake Titicaca. ... The ice core record from the Dunde ice cap offers the potential to reconstruct a very detailed history of environmental conditions on the Tibetan Plateau for the last 3000 years.

The ADH1B Arg47His polymorphism in East Asian populations and expansion of rice domestication in history

Background: The emergence of agriculture about 10,000 years ago marks a dramatic change in human evolutionary history. The diet shift in agriculture societies might have a great impact on the genetic makeup of Neolithic human populations. The regionally restricted enrichment of the class I alcohol dehydrogenase sequence polymorphism (ADH1BArg47His) in southern China and the adjacent areas suggests Darwinian positive selection on this genetic locus during Neolithic time though the driving force is yet to be disclosed. Results: We studied a total of 38 populations (2,275 individuals) including Han Chinese, Tibetan and other ethnic populations across China. The geographic distribution of the ADH1B*47His allele in these populations indicates a clear east-to-west cline, and it is dominant in south-eastern populations but rare in Tibetan populations. The molecular dating suggests that the emergence of the ADH1B*47His allele occurred about 10,000 similar to 7,000 years ago. Conclusion: We present genetic evidence of selection on the ADH1BArg47His polymorphism caused by the emergence and expansion of rice domestication in East Asia. The geographic distribution of the ADH1B*47His allele in East Asia is consistent with the unearthed culture relic sites of rice domestication in China. The estimated origin time of ADH1B*47His allele in those populations coincides with the time of origin and expansion of Neolithic agriculture in southern China.

Pitfalls in the analysis of ancient human mtDNA

The retrieval of DNA from ancient human specimens is not always successful owing to DNA deterioration and contamination although it is vital to provide new insights into the genetic structure of ancient people and to reconstruct the past history. Normally, only short DNA fragments can be retrieved from the ancient specimens. How to identify the authenticity of DNA obtained and to uncover the information it contained are difficult. We employed the ancient mtDNAs reported from Central Asia (including Xinjiang, China) as an example to discern potentially extraneous DNA contamination based on the updated mtDNA phylogeny derived from mtDNA control region, coding region, as well as complete sequence information. Our results demonstrated that many mtDNAs reported are more or less problematic. Starting from a reliable mtDNA phylogeney and combining the available modern data into analysis, one can ascertain the authenticity of the ancient DNA, distinguish the potential errors in a data set, and efficiently decipher the meager information it harbored. The reappraisal of the mtDNAs with the age of more than 2000 years from Central Asia gave support to the suggestion of extensively (pre)historical gene admixture in this region.

Mitochondrial DNA variation in cattle of South China: origin and introgression

Ten restriction endonucleases were used to investigate the mitochondrial DNA restriction fragment length polymorphism (mtDNA RFLP) of 11 native cattle breeds and one cultivated cattle breed in South China. Twenty-three restriction morphs were detected, which can be sorted into five haplotypes, A phylogenetic tree of the haplotypes was constructed by using the 'upgma' method. Our study showed that haplotype I and II are identical to the zebu (Bos indicus) and taurine (Bos taurus) haplotypes, respectively. Zebu and taurine were the two major origins of cattle populations in South China, and the zebu probably had more influence on the native cattle population than taurine did. Haplotype III is identical to haplotype I of yak (Bos grunniens), which was only detected in the Diqing cattle breed. Haplotype IV was detected for the first time. This haplotype, found only in Dehong cattle, might be from an independent domestication event, probably from another Bos indicus population. Divergence of haplotypes I and IV occurred about 268,000-535 000 years ago, much earlier than the 10,000-year history of cattle husbandry. Our results also suggest a secondary introgression of mtDNA from yak to Diqing cattle.

Evolutionary history of the mtDNA 9-bp deletion in Chinese populations and its relevance to the peopling of east and southeast Asia

In total, 1218 Chinese from twelve ethnic groups and nine Han geographic groups were screened for the mtDNA 9-bp deletion motif. The frequency of the 9-bp deletion in all samples was 14.7% but ranged from 0% to 32% in the various ethnic groups. Three individuals had a triplication of the 9-bp segment. Phylogenetic and demographic analyses of the mtDNA hypervariable segment 1 (HVS1) sequences suggest that the 9-bp deletion occurred more than once in China. The majority of the Chinese deletion:haplotypes (about 90%) have a common origin as a mutational event following an initial expansion of modem humans in eastern Asia. Other deletion haplotypes and the three haplotypes with a 9-bp triplication may have arisen independently in the Chinese, presumably by replication error. HVS1 haplotype analysis suggests two possible migration routes of the 9-bp deletion in east and southeast Asia. Both migrations originated in China with one route leading to the Pacific Islands via Taiwan, the other to southeast Asia and possibly the Nicobar Islands. Along both routes of peopling, a decrease in HVS1 diversity of the mtDNA haplotypes is observed. The "Polynesian motif (16217T/C, 16247A/G, and 16261C/T)" and the 16140T/C, 16266C/A, or C/G polymorphisms appear specific to each migration route.

Mitochondrial DNA variation, effective female population size and population history of the endangered Chinese sturgeon, Acipenser sinensis

The anadromous Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis), mainly endemic to the Yangtze River in China, is an endangered fish species. The natural population has declined since the Gezhouba Dam blocked its migratory route to the spawning grounds in 1981. In the near future, the completion of the Three Gorges Dam, the world's largest hydroelectric project, may further impact this species by altering the water flow of the Yangtze River. Little is currently known about the population genetic structure of the Chinese sturgeon. In this study, DNA sequence data were determined from the control region (D-loop) of the mitochondrial genome of adult sturgeons (n = 106) that were collected between 1995-2000. The molecular data were used to investigate genetic variation, effective female population size and population history of the Chinese sturgeon in the Yangtze River. Our results indicate that the reduction in abundance did not change genetic variation of the Chinese sturgeon, and that the population underwent an expansion in the past. AMOVA analysis indicated that 98.7% of the genetic variability occurred within each year's spawning populations, the year of collection had little influence on the diversity of annual temporary samples. The relative large effective female population size (N-ef) indicates that good potential exists for the recovery of this species in the future. Strikingly, the ratio of N-ef to the census female population size (N-f) is unusually high (0.77-0.93). This may be the result of a current bottleneck in the population of the Chinese sturgeon that is likely caused by human intervention.

Genetic diversity and population history of golden monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana)

Golden monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), namely the snub-nosed monkey, is a well-known endangered primate, which distributes only in the central part of mainland China. As an effort to understand the current genetic status as well as population history of this species, we collected a sample of 32 individuals from four different regions, which cover the major habitat of this species. Forty-four allozyme loci were surveyed in our study by allozyme electrophoresis, none of which was found to be polymorphic. The void of polymorphism compared with that of other nonhuman primates is surprising particularly considering that the current population size is many times larger than that of some other endangered species. Since many independent loci are surveyed in this Study, the most plausible explanation for our observation is that the population has experienced a recent bottleneck. We used a coalescent approach to explore various scenarios of population bottleneck and concluded that the most recent bottleneck could have happened within the last 15,000 years. Moreover, the proposed simulation approach could be useful to researchers who need to analyze the non- or low-polymorphism data.

Genome-wide SNP and haplotype analyses reveal a rich history underlying dog domestication

Advances in genome technology have facilitated a new understanding of the historical and genetic processes crucial to rapid phenotypic evolution under domestication(1,2). To understand the process of dog diversification better, we conducted an extensive genome-wide survey of more than 48,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms in dogs and their wild progenitor, the grey wolf. Here we show that dog breeds share a higher proportion of multi-locus haplotypes unique to grey wolves from the Middle East, indicating that they are a dominant source of genetic diversity for dogs rather than wolves from east Asia, as suggested by mitochondrial DNA sequence data(3). Furthermore, we find a surprising correspondence between genetic and phenotypic/functional breed groupings but there are exceptions that suggest phenotypic diversification depended in part on the repeated crossing of individuals with novel phenotypes. Our results show that Middle Eastern wolves were a critical source of genome diversity, although interbreeding with local wolf populations clearly occurred elsewhere in the early history of specific lineages. More recently, the evolution of modern dog breeds seems to have been an iterative process that drew on a limited genetic toolkit to create remarkable phenotypic diversity.