Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus : methodological challenges and research needs

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

Comparative susceptibility of mosquito populations in North Queensland, Australia to oral infection with dengue virus

Dengue is the most prevalent arthropod-borne virus, with at least 40% of the world’s population at risk of infection each year. In Australia, dengue is not endemic, but viremic travelers trigger outbreaks involving hundreds of cases. We compared the susceptibility of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes from two geographically isolated populations with two strains of dengue virus serotype 2. We found, interestingly, that mosquitoes from a city with no history of dengue were more susceptible to virus than mosquitoes from an outbreak-prone region, particularly with respect to one dengue strain. These findings suggest recent evolution of population-based differences in vector competence or different historical origins. Future genomic comparisons of these populations could reveal the genetic basis of vector competence and the relative role of selection and stochastic processes in shaping their differences. Lastly, we show the novel finding of a correlation between midgut dengue titer and titer in tissues colonized after dissemination.

Limited dengue virus replication in field-collected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia

Introduction Dengue is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in the world. The causative agent, dengue virus (DENV), is primarily transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, a species that has proved difficult to control using conventional methods. The discovery that A. aegypti transinfected with the wMel strain of Wolbachia showed limited DENV replication led to trial field releases of these mosquitoes in Cairns, Australia as a biocontrol strategy for the virus. Methodology/Principal Findings Field collected wMel mosquitoes that were challenged with three DENV serotypes displayed limited rates of body infection, viral replication and dissemination to the head compared to uninfected controls. Rates of dengue infection, replication and dissemination in field wMel mosquitoes were similar to those observed in the original transinfected wMel line that had been maintained in the laboratory. We found that wMel was distributed in similar body tissues in field mosquitoes as in laboratory ones, but, at seven days following blood-feeding, wMel densities increased to a greater extent in field mosquitoes. Conclusions/Significance Our results indicate that virus-blocking is likely to persist in Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes after their release and establishment in wild populations, suggesting that Wolbachia biocontrol may be a successful strategy for reducing dengue transmission in the field.

IODP Expedition 339 in the Gulf of Cadiz and off West Iberia : decoding the environmental significance of the Mediterranean outflow water and its global influence

IODP Expedition 339 drilled five sites in the Gulf of Cadiz and two off the west Iberian margin (November 2011 to January 2012), and recovered 5.5 km of sediment cores with an average recovery of 86.4%. The Gulf of Cadiz was targeted for drilling as a key location for the investigation of Mediterranean outflow water (MOW) through the Gibraltar Gateway and its influence on global circulation and climate. It is also a prime area for understanding the effects of tectonic activity on evolution of the Gibraltar Gateway and on margin sedimentation. We penetrated into the Miocene at two different sites and established a strong signal of MOW in the sedimentary record of the Gulf of Cadiz, following the opening of the Gibraltar Gateway. Preliminary results show the initiation of contourite deposition at 4.2–4.5 Ma, although subsequent research will establish whether this dates the onset of MOW. The Pliocene succession, penetrated at four sites, shows low bottom current activity linked with a weak MOW. Significant widespread unconformities, present in all sites but with hiatuses of variable duration, are interpreted as a signal of intensified MOW, coupled with flow confinement. The Quaternary succession shows a much more pronounced phase of contourite drift development, with two periods of MOW intensification separated by a widespread unconformity. Following this, the final phase of drift evolution established the contourite depositional system (CDS) architecture we see today. There is a significant climate control on this evolution of MOW and bottom-current activity. However, from the closure of the Atlantic–Mediterranean gateways in Spain and Morocco just over 6 Ma and the opening of the Gibraltar Gateway at 5.3 Ma, there has been an even stronger tectonic control on margin development, downslope sediment transport and contourite drift evolution. The Gulf of Cadiz is the world's premier contourite laboratory and thus presents an ideal testing ground for the contourite paradigm. Further study of these contourites will allow us to resolve outstanding issues related to depositional processes, drift budgets, and recognition of fossil contourites in the ancient record on shore. The expedition also verified an enormous quantity and extensive distribution of contourite sands that are clean and well sorted. These represent a relatively untapped and important exploration target for potential oil and gas reservoirs.

Epidemiological and molecular features of dengue virus type-1 in New Caledonia, South Pacific, 2001–2013

Background The epidemiology of dengue in the South Pacific has been characterized by transmission of a single dominant serotype for 3–5 years, with subsequent replacement by another serotype. From 2001 to 2008 only DENV-1 was reported in the Pacific. In 2008, DENV-4 emerged and quickly displaced DENV-1 in the Pacific, except in New Caledonia (NC) where DENV-1 and DENV-4 co-circulated in 2008–2009. During 2012–2013, another DENV-1 outbreak occurred in NC, the third DENV-1 outbreak in a decade. Given that dengue is a serotype-specific immunizing infection, the recurrent outbreaks of a single serotype within a 10-year period was unexpected. Findings This study aimed to inform this phenomenon by examining the phylogenetic characteristics of the DENV-1 viruses in NC and other Pacific islands between 2001 and 2013. As a result, we have demonstrated that NC experienced introductions of viruses from both the Pacific (genotype IV) and South-east Asia (genotype I). Moreover, whereas genotype IV and I were co-circulating at the beginning of 2012, we observed that from the second half of 2012, i.e. during the major DENV-1 outbreak, all analyzed viruses were genotype I suggesting that a genotype switch occurred. Conclusions Repeated outbreaks of the same dengue serotype, as observed in NC, is uncommon in the Pacific islands. Why the earlier DENV-1 outbreaks did not induce sufficient herd immunity is unclear, and likely multifactorial, but the robust vector control program may have played a role by limiting transmission and thus maintaining a large susceptible pool in the population. Keywords: Dengue; Phylogeny; Genotype; Epidemics; New Caledonia

Epidemiological patterns of Ross River virus disease in Queensland, Australia, 2001-2011

Ross River virus (RRV) infection is a debilitating disease which has a significant impact on population health, economic productivity and tourism in Australia. This study examined epidemiological patterns of the RRV disease in Queensland, Australia between January 2001 and December 2011 at a statistical local area level. Spatial-temporal analyses were used to identify the patterns of the disease distribution over time stratified by age, sex and space. The results show that the mean annual incidence was 54 per 100,000 people, with a male: female ratio of 1:1.1. Two space-time clusters were identified: the areas adjacent to Townsville, on the eastern coast of Queensland; and the south east areas. Thus, although public health intervention should be considered across all areas in which RRV occurs, it should specifically focus on these high risk regions, particularly during the summer and autumn to reduce the social and economic impacts of RRV.

Geographic co-distribution of influenza virus subtypes H7N9 and H5N1 in humans, China

Human infection with a novel low pathogenicity influenza A(H7N9) virus in eastern China has recently raised global public health concerns (1). The geographic sources of infection have yet to be fully clarified, and confirmed human cases from 1 province have not been linked to those from other provinces. While some studies have identified epidemiologic characteristics of subtype H7N9 cases and clinical differences between these cases and cases of highly pathogenic influenza A(H5N1), another avian influenza affecting parts of China (2–4), the spatial epidemiology of human infection with influenza subtypes H7N9 and H5N1 in China has yet to be elucidated. To test the hypothesis of co-distribution of high-risk clusters of both types of infection, we used all available data on human cases in mainland China and investigated the geospatial epidemiologic features...

Nucleic acid hybridizations as radioactive tool for rapid detection of banana bunchy top virus

Banana bunchy top disease (BBTD) caused by banana bunchy top virus (BBTV) was radioactively detected by nucleic acid hybridization techniques. Results showed that, 32P-labelled insert of pBT338 was hybridized with nucleic acid extracts from BBTV-infected plants from Egypt and Australia but not with those from CMV-infected plants from Egypt. Results revealed that BBTV was greatly detected in midrib, roots, meristem, corm, leaves and pseudostem respectively. BBTV was also detected in symptomless young plants prepared from diseased plant materials grown under tissue culture conditions but was not present in those performed from healthy plant materials. The sensitivity of dot blot and Southern blot hybridizations for the detection of BBTV was also performed for the detection of BBTV.

Late Pleistocene stratigraphy of IODP Site U1396 and compiled chronology offshore of south and south west Montserrat, Lesser Antilles

Marine sediments around volcanic islands contain an archive of volcaniclastic deposits, which can be used to reconstruct the volcanic history of an area. Such records hold many advantages over often incomplete terrestrial datasets. This includes the potential for precise and continuous dating of intervening sediment packages, which allow a correlatable and temporally-constrained stratigraphic framework to be constructed across multiple marine sediment cores. Here, we discuss a marine record of eruptive and mass-wasting events spanning ~250 ka offshore of Montserrat, using new data from IODP Expedition 340, as well as previously collected cores. By using a combination of high-resolution oxygen isotope stratigraphy, AMS radiocarbon dating, biostratigraphy of foraminifera and calcareous nannofossils and clast componentry, we identify five major events at Soufriere Hills volcano since 250 ka. Lateral correlation of these events across sediment cores collected offshore of the south and south west of Montserrat, have improved our understanding of the timing, extent and associations between events in this area. Correlations reveal that powerful and potentially erosive density-currents travelled at least 33 km offshore, and demonstrate that marine deposits, produced by eruption-fed and mass-wasting events on volcanic islands, are heterogeneous in their spatial distribution. Thus, multiple drilling/coring sites are needed to reconstruct the full chronostratigraphy of volcanic islands. This multidisciplinary study will be vital to interpreting the chaotic records of submarine landslides at other sites drilled during Expedition 340 and provides a framework that can be applied to the stratigraphic analysis of sediments surrounding other volcanic islands.

Three-dimensional analysis of budding sites and released virus suggests a revised model for HIV-1 morphogenesis

Current models of HIV-1 morphogenesis hold that newly synthesized viral Gag polyproteins traffic to and assemble at the cell membrane into spherical protein shells. The resulting late-budding structure is thought to be released by the cellular ESCRT machinery severing the membrane tether connecting it to the producer cell. Using electron tomography and scanning transmission electron microscopy, we find that virions have a morphology and composition distinct from late-budding sites. Gag is arranged as a continuous but incomplete sphere in the released virion. In contrast, late-budding sites lacking functional ESCRT exhibited a nearly closed Gag sphere. The results lead us to propose that budding is initiated by Gag assembly, but is completed in an ESCRT-dependent manner before the Gag sphere is complete. This suggests that ESCRT functions early in HIV-1 release-akin to its role in vesicle formation-and is not restricted to severing the thin membrane tether.

Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Herpes simplex 2 risk among women in a polygynous setting in rural West Africa

OBJECTIVES: To determine risk factors for herpes simplex 2 (HSV2) infection in women in a polygynous rural Gambian population. METHODS: Data from women who participated in a cross-sectional survey of reproductive health were matched to their own and, for women who had been or were married (ever-married), their spouses' data collected in a cross-sectional survey of fertility interests, including information on marital histories. RESULTS: Data were available on 150 never-married and 525 ever-married women. HSV2 prevalence was 16% amongst never-married women and 36% amongst ever-married women. For ever-married women, their own personal characteristics (age, ethnicity and genital cutting status) and events from their husbands' marriage history were important determinants of HSV2 infection. Women whose husbands married for the first time over age 35 were at greater risk than women whose husbands married by age 24 [odds ratio (OR) 2.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-6.10]. Women whose husband reported interest in a new marriage were more likely to be HSV2 positive (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.18-3.09). Women whose husbands were currently monogamous but had had previous marriages (OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.30-5.88) and women in currently polygynous marriages (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.66-5.01) were three times as likely to be HSV2 positive as women who were their husband's only wife ever. CONCLUSION: Much transmission of HSV2 in this setting occurs within marriage where opportunity for personal protection is limited. High levels of transmission within marriage may undermine the impact of sexual behaviour change programmes aiming to reduce HSV2 and HIV incidence and complicate their evaluation.

Construction of volcanic records from marine sediment cores : a review and case study (Montserrat, West Indies)

Detailed knowledge of the past history of an active volcano is crucial for the prediction of the timing, frequency and style of future eruptions, and for the identification of potentially at-risk areas. Subaerial volcanic stratigraphies are often incomplete, due to a lack of exposure, or burial and erosion from subsequent eruptions. However, many volcanic eruptions produce widely-dispersed explosive products that are frequently deposited as tephra layers in the sea. Cores of marine sediment therefore have the potential to provide more complete volcanic stratigraphies, at least for explosive eruptions. Nevertheless, problems such as bioturbation and dispersal by currents affect the preservation and subsequent detection of marine tephra deposits. Consequently, cryptotephras, in which tephra grains are not sufficiently concentrated to form layers that are visible to the naked eye, may be the only record of many explosive eruptions. Additionally, thin, reworked deposits of volcanic clasts transported by floods and landslides, or during pyroclastic density currents may be incorrectly interpreted as tephra fallout layers, leading to the construction of inaccurate records of volcanism. This work uses samples from the volcanic island of Montserrat as a case study to test different techniques for generating volcanic eruption records from marine sediment cores, with a particular relevance to cores sampled in relatively proximal settings (i.e. tens of kilometres from the volcanic source) where volcaniclastic material may form a pervasive component of the sedimentary sequence. Visible volcaniclastic deposits identified by sedimentological logging were used to test the effectiveness of potential alternative volcaniclastic-deposit detection techniques, including point counting of grain types (component analysis), glass or mineral chemistry, colour spectrophotometry, grain size measurements, XRF core scanning, magnetic susceptibility and X-radiography. This study demonstrates that a set of time-efficient, non-destructive and high-spatial-resolution analyses (e.g. XRF core-scanning and magnetic susceptibility) can be used effectively to detect potential cryptotephra horizons in marine sediment cores. Once these horizons have been sampled, microscope image analysis of volcaniclastic grains can be used successfully to discriminate between tephra fallout deposits and other volcaniclastic deposits, by using specific criteria related to clast morphology and sorting. Standard practice should be employed when analysing marine sediment cores to accurately identify both visible tephra and cryptotephra deposits, and to distinguish fallout deposits from other volcaniclastic deposits.

Spatial analysis of risk factors for transmission of the Barmah forest virus in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia but few data are available on the risk factors. We assessed the impact of spatial climatic, socioeconomic and ecological factors on the transmission of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia, using spatial regression. All our analyses indicate that spatial lag models provide a superior fit to the data compared to spatial error and ordinary least square models. The residuals of the spatial lag models were found to be uncorrelated, indicating that the models adequately account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Our results revealed that minimum temperature, distance from coast and low tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease in coastal areas, whereas minimum temperature and high tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease (all P-value.