Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

Acute and usual drinking among emergency trauma patients: a study on alcohol consumption and injury patterns.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between usual and acute alcohol consumption among injured patients and, when combined, how they covary with other injury attributes. METHODS: Data from a randomised sample of 486 injured patients interviewed in an emergency department (Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland) were analysed using the chi(2) test for independence and cluster analysis. RESULTS: Acute alcohol consumption (24.7%) was associated with usual drinking and particularly with high volumes of consumption. Six injury clusters were identified. Over-representations of acute consumption were found in a cluster typical of injuries sustained through interpersonal violence and in another formed by miscellaneous circumstances. A third cluster, typical of sports injuries, was linked to a group of frequent heavy episodic drinkers (without acute consumption). CONCLUSIONS: Among injured patients, acute alcohol consumption is common and associated with usual drinking. Acute and/or usual consumption form part of some, but not all, injury clusters.

A novel tool to analyze MRI recurrence patterns in glioblastoma.

At least 10% of glioblastoma relapses occur at distant and even contralateral locations. This disseminated growth limits surgical intervention and contributes to neurological morbidity. Preclinical data pointed toward a role for temozolomide (TMZ) in reducing radiotherapy-induced glioma cell invasiveness. Our objective was to develop and validate a new analysis tool of MRI data to examine the clinical recurrence pattern of glioblastomas. MRIcro software was used to map the location and extent of initial preoperative and recurrent tumors on MRI of 63 patients in the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) 26981/22981/National Cancer Institute of Canada (NCIC) CE.3 study into the same stereotaxic space. This allowed us to examine changes of site and distance between the initial and the recurrent tumor on the group level. Thirty of the 63 patients were treated using radiotherapy, while the other patients completed a radiotherapy-plus-TMZ treatment. Baseline characteristics (median age, KPS) and outcome data (progression-free survival, overall survival) of the patients included in this analysis resemble those of the general study cohort. The patient groups did not differ in the promoter methylation status of methyl guanine methyltransferase (MGMT). Overall frequency of distant recurrences was 20%. Analysis of recurrence patterns revealed no difference between the groups in the size of the recurrent tumor or in the differential effect on the distance of the recurrences from the preoperative tumor location. The data show the feasibility of groupwise recurrence pattern analysis. An effect of TMZ treatment on the recurrence pattern in the EORTC 26981/22981/NCIC CE.3 study could not be demonstrated.

Confirmation of functional zones within the human subthalamic nucleus: patterns of connectivity and sub-parcellation using diffusion weighted imaging.

The subthalamic nucleus (STN) is a small, glutamatergic nucleus situated in the diencephalon. A critical component of normal motor function, it has become a key target for deep brain stimulation in the treatment of Parkinson's disease. Animal studies have demonstrated the existence of three functional sub-zones but these have never been shown conclusively in humans. In this work, a data driven method with diffusion weighted imaging demonstrated that three distinct clusters exist within the human STN based on brain connectivity profiles. The STN was successfully sub-parcellated into these regions, demonstrating good correspondence with that described in the animal literature. The local connectivity of each sub-region supported the hypothesis of bilateral limbic, associative and motor regions occupying the anterior, mid and posterior portions of the nucleus respectively. This study is the first to achieve in-vivo, non-invasive anatomical parcellation of the human STN into three anatomical zones within normal diagnostic scan times, which has important future implications for deep brain stimulation surgery.

A Rural Community in a Brazilian Western Amazonian Region: Some Demographic and Epidemiological Patterns

Some demographic and epidemiological patterns of the rural population of Monte Negro, locality situated in the State of Rondônia (Brazil), Western Amazonia, are described based on a sample of 924 randomly selected individuals, approximately 10% of the whole population. The main features of this sample are (1) the illiteracy rates in the parental generation were 23% for fathers and 20% for mothers. Among children, this figure dropped to 6%; (2) housing in Monte Negro is characterized by being constructed with wood (92%), and also a floor (75%). Nevertheless, only 32% of these houses had electric energy; (3) the mean ages for the parental generation were 41.9 for males and 36.3 for females. These values for the offspring generation were 12.2 and 10.5, respectively; (4) the sex-ratio of the offspring generation was 1.32;(5) the bioassay of kinship was estimated as .033 for this long range migrant population; (6) the prevalence of some macrophage dependent infectious disease was conspicuously high; (7) the reported number of malarial episodes among males and females was statistically different, suggesting that malaria may be, in part, a "professional" disease; (8) the prevalence of serum-positive reactions against B-hepatitis is distressing. It has a strong age dependence and reaches 74% among adult males. Conversely, signs of active infection (AgHbs) rises to 16% among children.

Triatoma rubrovaria (Blanchard, 1843) (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) I: isoenzymatic and chromatic patterns of five populations from the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Triatoma rubrovaria has become the most frequently captured triatomine species since the control of T. infestans in the State of Rio Grande do Sul (RS), Brazil. In order to evaluate the genetic variability of this species, field collections were performed in four municipalities where it has been reported and distant from 75 to 322 km. Specimens were analyzed by color pattern and isoenzymes. Nine enzymatic loci were interpreted from nine enzymatic systems. The Santiago population was isolated from the others with chromatic monomorphism and diagnostic alleles at Idh and Pgm loci. The study shows the existence of, at least, two distinct populations of T. rubrovaria in RS with different phenotypic and genetic pattern.

Patterns of infection with the nematodes Syphacia obvelata and Aspiculuris tetraptera in conventionally maintained laboratory mice

Data on the frequency, distribution and mean intensity of the helminth fauna recovered from outbred and inbred mice conventionally maintained in Brazilian animal houses, are reported. The oxyurid nematodes Syphacia obvelata and Aspiculuris tetraptera presented overall frequencies of 91.5% and 8.5%, respectively. The frequency of S. obvelata in animals of three groups out of the four investigated ranged from 9% to 74% and A. tetraptera from 17% to 83%, since animals of one of the groups were negative for helminths. Infections due to a single species were observed in 62% of the animals, compared to 16% related to associations. The frequency of single infections in each group varied from 58.6% to 100% whereas associations varied from 24.1% to 41.4%. The analysis of specific mean intensities showed that S. obvelata was represented by 13.35 to 66.58 specimens/host and A. tetraptera by 5.85 to 16.75 specimens/host.

Adolescent drinking patterns across countries: associations with alcohol policies.

Early consumption of full servings of alcohol and early experience of drunkenness have been linked with alcohol-related harmful effects in adolescence, as well as adult health and social problems. On the basis of secondary analysis of county-level prevalence data, the present study explored the current pattern of drinking and drunkenness among 15- and 16-year-old adolescents in 40 European and North American countries. Data from the 2006 Health Behavior in School Children survey and the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and other Drugs were used. The potential role of alcohol control and policy measures in explaining variance in drinking patterns across countries was also examined. Policy measures and data on adult consumption patterns were taken from the WHO Global Information System on Alcohol and Health, Eurostat and the indicator of alcohol control policy strength developed by Brand DA, Saisana M, Rynn LA et al. [(2007) Comparative analysis of alcohol control policies in 30 countries. PLoS Med 4:e151.]. We found that a non-significant trend existed whereby higher prices and stronger alcohol controls were associated with a lower proportion of weekly drinking but a higher proportion of drunkenness. It is important that future research explores the causal relationships between alcohol policy measures and alcohol consumption patterns to determine whether strict policies do in fact have any beneficial effect on drinking patterns, or rather, lead to rebellion and an increased prevalence of binge drinking.

The patterns of tungiasis in Araruama township, state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

This paper describes patterns of infestation with Tunga penetrans (L., 1758) within the poor community of Araruama municipality, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, assessed by the number of persons and domestic animals parasitized. The overall prevalence of infestation was 49.2% (211 parasitized hosts) of the 429 examined. Humans (p < 0.01) and dogs (p < 0.01) were the most important hosts with 62.6% and 35.6% respectively. Dogs were considered as the potential infestation source to humans. Considering sex and age groups, both measures showed a significant difference (p < 0.01): female (62.2% infested of 143 examined) and male (43.9% infested of 98 examined). All age classes were found infested with significant difference (G = 42.5; p < 0.01) and most of the infestation occurred in children in the 0-9-year old category (27.3%). In contrast and based on mean of chigoe burden per person, the parasitic intensity was significantly higher on male than on female in all age categories, except for the 50+ (H = 27.1; p < 0.01) and decreasing with the increase of age (chi2 = 69.7, A = -124.6, p < 0.01). Growing urbanization, improved housing and sewage systems, use of appropriate footwear, examination of the feet principally in young children, antitetanus prophylaxis and reduction of stray dogs population are the major prophylactic methods recommended.

SLÃÅN: Smoking Patterns in Ireland: Implications for policy and services

SLÃÅN: Smoking Patterns in Ireland: Implications for policy and services Click here to download PDF 1.1mb

SLÃÅN: Alcohol use in Ireland - A profile of drinking patterns and alcohol-related harm

SLÃÅN: Alcohol use in Ireland – A profile of drinking patterns and alcohol-related harm Click here to download PDF 824kb

Triatoma rubrovaria (Blanchard, 1843) (Hemiptera-Reduviidae-Triatominae) III: patterns of feeding, defecation and resistance to starvation

Data from the Chagas Disease Control Program indicate a growing domiciliary and peridomiciliary invasion of Triatoma rubrovaria in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, where it has become the most frequent triatomine species captured there since the control of T. infestans. Bionomic characteristics that could influence the vectorial capacity of T. rubrovaria as vector of Trypanosoma cruzi were evaluated: patterns of (i) feeding, (ii) defecation, and (iii) resistance to starvation, using insects fed on mice. Fifty three percent of the females showed a defecation pattern conducive to chagasic transmission, defecating either on or near the bite site. The averages of the resistance to starvation varied from 48.1 to 179 days, for the first and fifth nymphal stages, respectively. Our study shows that with respect to the patterns of feeding, defecation and resistance to fasting, T. rubrovaria presented similar rates to the ones observed for other effective vector species, such as T. infestans. Thus, based on our studies we conclude that T. rubrovaria has biological characteristics that can positively influence its capacity to become infected and transmit T. cruzi, and also to keep residual populations after chemical control interventions.

A comprehensive characterization of genome-wide copy number aberrations in colorectal cancer reveals novel oncogenes and patterns of alterations.

To develop a comprehensive overview of copy number aberrations (CNAs) in stage-II/III colorectal cancer (CRC), we characterized 302 tumors from the PETACC-3 clinical trial. Microsatellite-stable (MSS) samples (n = 269) had 66 minimal common CNA regions, with frequent gains on 20 q (72.5%), 7 (41.8%), 8 q (33.1%) and 13 q (51.0%) and losses on 18 (58.6%), 4 q (26%) and 21 q (21.6%). MSS tumors have significantly more CNAs than microsatellite-instable (MSI) tumors: within the MSI tumors a novel deletion of the tumor suppressor WWOX at 16 q23.1 was identified (p<0.01). Focal aberrations identified by the GISTIC method confirmed amplifications of oncogenes including EGFR, ERBB2, CCND1, MET, and MYC, and deletions of tumor suppressors including TP53, APC, and SMAD4, and gene expression was highly concordant with copy number aberration for these genes. Novel amplicons included putative oncogenes such as WNK1 and HNF4A, which also showed high concordance between copy number and expression. Survival analysis associated a specific patient segment featured by chromosome 20 q gains to an improved overall survival, which might be due to higher expression of genes such as EEF1B2 and PTK6. The CNA clustering also grouped tumors characterized by a poor prognosis BRAF-mutant-like signature derived from mRNA data from this cohort. We further revealed non-random correlation between CNAs among unlinked loci, including positive correlation between 20 q gain and 8 q gain, and 20 q gain and chromosome 18 loss, consistent with co-selection of these CNAs. These results reinforce the non-random nature of somatic CNAs in stage-II/III CRC and highlight loci and genes that may play an important role in driving the development and outcome of this disease.