THERE GOES THE ELECTORAL NEIGHBORHOOD: LOCAL NETWORKS, ATTRIBUTION OF RESPONSIBILITY, AND THE (UN) FAIRNESS OF ELECTIONS

During the last two decades there have been but a handful of recorded cases of electoral fraud in Latin America. However, survey research consistently shows that often citizens do not trust the integrity of the electoral process. This dissertation addresses the puzzle by explaining the mismatch between how elections are conducted and how the process is perceived. My theoretical contribution provides a double-folded argument. First, voters’ trust in their community members (“the local experience”) impacts their level of confidence in the electoral process. Since voters often find their peers working at polling stations, negative opinions about them translate into negative opinions about the election. Second, perceptions of unfairness of the system (“the global effect”) negatively impact the way people perceive the transparency of the electoral process. When the political system fails to account for social injustice, citizens lose faith in the mechanism designed to elect representatives -and ultimately a set of policies. The fact that certain groups are systematically disregarded by the system triggers the notion that the electoral process is flawed. This is motivated by either egotropic or sociotropic considerations. To test these hypotheses, I employ a survey conducted in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala during May/June 2014, which includes a population-based experiment. I show that Voters who trust their peers consistently have higher confidence in the electoral process. Whereas respondents who were primed about social unfairness (treatment) expressed less confidence in the quality of the election. Finally, I find that the local experience is predominant over the global effect. The treatment has a statistically significant effect only for respondents who trust their community. Attribution of responsibility for voters who are skeptics of their peers is clear and simple, leaving no room for a more diffuse mechanism, the unfairness of the political system. Finally, now I extend analysis to the Latin America region. Using data from LAPOP that comprises four waves of surveys in 22 countries, I confirm the influence of the “local experience” and the “global effect” as determinants of the level of confidence in the electoral process.

One Person, Many Votes: Divided Majority and Information Aggregation

In elections, majority divisions pave the way to focal manipulations and coordination failures, which can lead to the victory of the wrong candidate. This paper shows how this flaw can be addressed if voter preferences over candidates are sensitive to information. We consider two potential sources of divisions: majority voters may have similar preferences but opposite information about the candidates, or opposite preferences. We show that when information is the source of majority divisions, Approval Voting features a unique equilibrium with full information and coordination equivalence. That is, it produces the same outcome as if both information and coordination problems could be resolved. Other electoral systems, such as Plurality and Two-Round elections, do not satisfy this equivalence. The second source of division is opposite preferences. Whenever the fraction of voters with such preferences is not too large, Approval Voting still satisfies full information and coordination equivalence.

Essays in Applied and Labor Economics

This thesis consists of three chapters. First and second chapter include original research papers with the focus of health behavior and refugee migration. In the context of a high-income developing country, Turkey, I provide new insights for the established policy discussions in the literature. Then, third chapter reviews the literature and perspectives on the determinants of attitude formation towards migration policy and migrants. This chapter extends the discussion in Chapter 2 and aims at understanding the reasons of recent global trends in anti-migration attitudes. In Chapter 1, I investigate the effects of education on the early investments of mothers in their children aged between 0-5. Exploiting a compulsory schooling reform, I document the causal effects of education on young mothers' health investments during pregnancy and postnatal period. Results suggest that there are positive effects on the use of health care services, while no effects on breast- feeding or vaccination take-ups. These results can be put into context through newly implemented Health Transformation Program in the country. I show that educated mothers use new services more and empowerment effects of the education have a role in the service use. This study gives important policy lessons to improve mothers' health care use and early child conditions in developing countries. In Chapter 2, I investigate the effects of refugee inflow on the voting behavior of natives. I use a novel data provided by a telecommunication company, focus on pre and post refugee inflow elections and investigate the vote share of the party announced "open-door" policy. Analysis suggests that although refugees and natives are culturally closer than the Western country contexts, small negative effects documented are likely be driven by non-economic reasons. These findings bring a new perspective to understand why anti-immigrant sentiments are easy to use and manipulate.

Populism as a battlefield Populist actors and their representation on social and legacy media during the european parliament elections 2019 in Finland, Italy and the Netherlands

The objective of the present research is to describe and explain populist actors and populism as a concept and their representation on social and legacy media during the 2019 EU elections in Finland, Italy and The Netherlands. This research tackles the topic of European populism in the context of political communication and its relation to both the legacy and digital media within the hybrid media system. Departing from the consideration that populism and populist rhetoric are challenging concepts to define, I suggest that they should be addressed and analyzed through the usage of a combination of methods and theoretical perspectives, namely Communication Studies, Corpus Linguistics, Political theory, Rhetoric and Corpus-Assisted Discourse Studies. This thesis considers data of different provenance. On the one hand, for the Legacy media part, newspapers articles were collected in the three countries under study from the 1st until the 31st of May 2019. Each country’s legacy system is represented by three different quality papers and the articles were collected according to a selection of keywords (European Union Elections and Populism in each of the three languages). On the other hand, the Digital media data takes into consideration Twitter tweets collected during the same timeframe based on particular country-specific hashtags and tweets by identified populist actors. In order to meet the objective of this study, three research questions are posed and the analysis leading to the results are exhaustively presented and further discussed. The results of this research provide valuable and novel insights on how populism as a theme and a concept is being portrayed in the context of the European elections both in legacy and digital media and political communication in general.

Essays in political and gender economics

In the first chapter, “Political power and the influence of minorities: theory and evidence from Italy”, I analyze the relationship between minority and majority in politics, and how it can influence policy outcomes. I first present a theoretical model describing the possible consequences of an increase in a minority’s political power and show how it can increase difficulties in reaching a compromise on policy outcomes between parties. Furthermore, I empirically test these implications by exploiting the introduction in 2012 of a gender quota in Italian local elections: the increase in female politicians had heterogeneous effects on the level of funding for daycare, based on its differential effects on the share of women councillors. The second chapter, “Marriage patterns and the gender gap in labor force participation: evidence from Italy”, presents evidence highlighting a new possible determinant of the large gender gap in the Italian labor force: endogamy intensity. I argue that endogamy helps preserve social norms stigmatizing working women and reduces the probability of divorce, which disincentivizes women’s participation in the labor force. Endogamy is proxied by the degree of concentration of its surnames’ distribution, and I provide evidence that a more intense custom of endogamy contributed to enlarging gender participation gaps across Italian municipalities in 2001. The third chapter, “Information and quality of politicians: is transparency helping voters?”, studies how voting choices are affected by giving voters more personal information on candidates. I exploit the introduction of the “Spazzacorrotti” law in Italy in 2019, which imposed candidates at local elections to publish their CVs and criminal records before elections. I find no effects on elected candidates’ age, gender, educational level, or ideology. Moreover, I present anecdotal evidence that candidates with a criminal record received fewer votes on average, but only in the case of local media exposing it.

THE IMPORTANCE OF DISAGREEING: CONTRARIANS AND EXTREMISM IN THE CODA MODEL

In this paper, we study the effects of introducing contrarians in a model of Opinion Dynamics where the agents have internal continuous opinions, but exchange information only about a binary choice that is a function of their continuous opinion, the CODA model. We observe that the hung election scenario that arises when contrarians are introduced in discrete opinion models still happens. However, it is weaker and it should not be expected in every election. Finally, we also show that the introduction of contrarians make the tendency towards extremism of the original model weaker, indicating that the existence of agents that prefer to disagree might be an important aspect and help society to diminish extremist opinions.

Communism and Public Opinion in Queensland, 1939-1951 : An Explanation of Queensland's Vote in the 1951 Anti-Communist Referendum

The starting point of this thesis was a desire to explain the rapid demise in the popularity which the Communist Party enjoyed in Queensland during the second world war. Wartime Queensland gave the Australian Communist Party its highest state vote and six years later Queensland again gave the Communist Party its highest state vote - this time however, to ban the Party. From this I was led into exploring the changing policies, beliefs and strategies of the Party, as well as the many sub-groups on its periphery, and the shifts in public response to these. In 1939 Townsville elected Australia's first Communist alderman. Five years later, Bowen elected not only Australia's first but also the British Empire's first, Communist state government member. Of the five electorates the Australian Communist Party contested in the 1944 Queensland State elections, in none did the Party's candidate receive less than twenty per-cent of the formal vote. Not only was the Party seemingly enjoying considerable popular support but this was occurring in a State which, but for the Depression years (May 1929 - June 1932) had elected a Labor State Government at every state election since 1915. In the September 1951 Constitution Alteration Referendum, 'Powers To Deal With Communists and Communism', Queensland regist¬ered the nation's highest "Yes" majority - 55.76% of the valid vote. Only two other states registered a majority in favour of the referendum's proposals, Western Australia and Tasmania. As this research was undertaken it became evident that while various trends exhibited at the time, anti-Communism, the work of the Industrial Groups, Labor opportunism, local area feelings, ideological shifts of the Party, tactics of Communist-led unions, etc., were present throughout the entire period, they were best seen when divided into three chronological phases of the Party's history and popularity. The first period covers the consolidation of the Party's post-Depression popularity during the war years as it benefited from the Soviet Union's colossal contribution to the Allied war efforts, and this support continued for some six months or so after the war. Throughout the period Communist strength within the trade union movement greatly increased as did total Party membership. The second period was marked by a rapid series of events starting in March 1946, with Winston Churchill's "Official Opening" of the Cold War by his sweeping attack on Communism and Russia, at Fulton. Several days later the first of a series of long and bitter strikes in Communist-led unions occurred, as the Party mobil¬ized for what it believed would be a series of attacks on the working class from a ruling class, defending a capitalist system on the verge of an economic collapse. It was a period when the Party believed this ruling class was using Labor reformism as a last desperate 'carrot' to get workers to accept their lot within a capitalist economic framework. Out of the Meat Strike emerged the Industrial Groups, who waged not only a determined war against Communist trade union leadership but also encouraged the A.W.U.-influenced State Labor apparatus to even greater anti-Communist antagonisms. The Communist Party's increasing militancy and Labor's resistance to it, ended finally in the collapse of the Chifley Labor government. Characteristically the third period opens with the Communist Party making an another about-face, desperately trying to form an alliance with the Labor Party and curbing its former adventurist industrial policy, as it prepared for Menzies' direct assault. The Communist Party's activities were greatly reduced, a function of both a declining member-ship and, furthermore, a membership reluctant to confront an increasingly hostile society. In examining the changing policies, beliefs and strategies of the Party and the shifts in public response to these, I have tried to distinguish between general trends occurring within Australia and the national party, and trends peculiar to Queensland and the Queensland branch of the Party, The Communist Party suffered a decline in support and membership right across Australia throughout this period as a result of the national policies of the Party, and the changing nature of world politics. There were particular features of this decline that were peculiar to Queensland. I have, however, singled out three features of particular importance throughout the period for a short but more specifically detailed analysis, than would be possible in a purely chronological study: i.e. the Party's structure, the Party's ideological subservience to Moscow, and the general effect upon it of the Cold War.

Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities

This paper uses a new panel of more than 2,000 Brazilian municipalities over 13 years to analyze the influence of public expenditures on the probability of mayors` reelection. We examine Brazilian municipal elections from 1988 to 2000 using a logit fixed-effects model. The results suggest that mayors who spend more during their terms of office increase the probability of their own reelection or of a successor of the same political party. In particular, higher capital spending over the years preceding elections and current expenditures in election years are beneficial to Brazilian incumbent mayors.

Political Parties and Governors as Determinants of Legislative Behavior in Brazil`s Chamber of Deputies, 1988-2006

This article examines the relative importance of regional and national forces in shaping the behavior of Brazilian legislators at the national level. A widely held view is that national legislators respond to state pressures in making decisions, rather than pressures from the national government. Governors not only can influence national debates but also can determine outcomes by exerting control over their states` legislative delegations. This article examines a dataset of all roll-call votes in the Chamber of Deputies between 1989 and 2006 to isolate and evaluate the impact of local pressures on legislative voting. Spanning the terms of five presidents and five different congresses, the data show that the local influence is weaker than the national on the voting decisions of individual legislators and the voting cohesion of state delegations. Alternative institutional resources allow the central government to counteract the centrifugal pressures of federalism and other institutional influences.

Two-step tuberculin skin test and booster phenomenon prevalence among Brazilian medical students

SETTING: Five medical schools in three cities in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, with different tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prevalence of the booster phenomenon and its associated factors in a voting universally BCG-vaccinated TB-exposed population. DESIGN: A two-step tuberculin skin test (TST) was performed among undergraduate medical students. Boosting was defined as an induration >= 10 mm in the second TST (TST2), with an increase of at least 6 mm over the first TST (TST1). The association of boosting with independent variables was evaluated using multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Of the 764 participants (mean age 21.9 +/- 2.7 years), 672 (87.9%) had a BCG scar. The overall booster SUMMARY phenomenon prevalence was 8.4% (95%CI 6.5-10.6). Boosting was associated with TST1 reactions of 1-9 mm (aOR 2.5, 95%CI 1.04-5.9) and with BCG vaccination, mostly after infancy, i.e., after age two years (aOR 9.1, 95%,CI 1.2-70.7). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of the booster phenomenon was high. A two-step TST in young BCG-vaccinated populations, especially in those with TST1 reactions of 1-9 mm, can avoid misdiagnosis as a false conversion and potentially reduce unnecessary treatment for latent TB infection.

Public choice of species for the ark: Phylogenetic similarity and preferred wildlife species for survival

Humans play a role in deciding the fate of species in the current extinction wave. Because of the previous Similarity Principle, physical attractiveness and likeability, it has been argued that public choice favours the survival of species that satisfy these criteria at the expense of other species. This paper empirically tests this argument by considering a hypothetical ‘Ark’ situation. Surveys of 204 members of the Australian public inquired whether they are in favour of the survival of each of 24 native mammal, bird and reptile species (prior to and after information provision about each species). The species were ranked by percentage of ‘yes’ votes received. Species composition by taxon in various fractions of the ranking was determined. If the previous Similarity Principle holds, mammals should rank highly and dominate the top fractions of animals saved in the hierarchical list. We find that although mammals would be over-represented in the ‘Ark’, birds and reptiles are unlikely to be excluded when social choice is based on numbers ‘voting’ for the survival of each species. Support for the previous Similarity Principle is apparent particularly after information provision. Public policy implications of this are noted and recommendations are given.

'Localizing the national' - The rediscovery and reshaping of local campaigning in Australia

Pippa Norris provides a schematic account of the evolution of campaigning through premodern, modern and postmodern stages. In particular she points to an emerging postmodern phase of electioneering characterized by a renewed emphasis upon direct forms of engagement which resonate with an earlier period in which campaigns were locally fought and largely dependent upon the canvassing efforts of party workers and volunteers. Norris's analysis offers a useful prism with which to view recent developments in electioneering in Australia. In the past several elections the rival Labor and Liberal parties have attempted to achieve a synergy between their centrally conducted and constituency-level campaigns by ensuring that their national campaigns are locally relevant and address local concerns. Their efforts to 'localize the national' meld the use of sophisticated software with elements of a traditional 'meet and greet' politics and suggest that local campaigning may now have a new shape and importance.

Política, eleições e corrupção económica…

Os partidos e candidatos que terão os melhores resultados nas próximas eleições legislativas a realizar em Portugal – que, com elevado grau de probabilidade, serão antecipadas – serão aqueles que melhor consigam convencer os votantes em geral de que a retribuição, prevenção e restauração dos crimes e ilícitos de corrupção, e da criminalidade económica e social em geral, terão um tratamento desta vez eficaz em concreto; Abstract: The parties and candidates who have the best results in the upcoming legislative elections in Portugal - which, with high probability, will be early - will be those who best can convince the general voting that the compensation, prevention and restoration of crimes and illegal corruption, and economic and social crime in general, receive treatment this time effective in concrete.