Risky business: social media metrics and political risk analysis

A quantificação do risco país – e do risco político em particular – levanta várias dificuldades às empresas, instituições, e investidores. Como os indicadores econômicos são atualizados com muito menos freqüência do que o Facebook, compreender, e mais precisamente, medir – o que está ocorrendo no terreno em tempo real pode constituir um desafio para os analistas de risco político. No entanto, com a crescente disponibilidade de “big data” de ferramentas sociais como o Twitter, agora é o momento oportuno para examinar os tipos de métricas das ferramentas sociais que estão disponíveis e as limitações da sua aplicação para a análise de risco país, especialmente durante episódios de violência política. Utilizando o método qualitativo de pesquisa bibliográfica, este estudo identifica a paisagem atual de dados disponíveis a partir do Twitter, analisa os métodos atuais e potenciais de análise, e discute a sua possível aplicação no campo da análise de risco político. Depois de uma revisão completa do campo até hoje, e tendo em conta os avanços tecnológicos esperados a curto e médio prazo, este estudo conclui que, apesar de obstáculos como o custo de armazenamento de informação, as limitações da análise em tempo real, e o potencial para a manipulação de dados, os benefícios potenciais da aplicação de métricas de ferramentas sociais para o campo da análise de risco político, particularmente para os modelos qualitativos-estruturados e quantitativos, claramente superam os desafios.

EULAR/PRINTO/PRES criteria for Henoch-Schonlein purpura, childhood polyarteritis nodosa, childhood Wegener granulomatosis and childhood Takayasu arteritis: Ankara 2008. Part I: Overall methodology and clinical characterisation

Objectives To report methodology and overall clinical, laboratory and radiographic characteristics for Henoch-Schonlein purpura (HSP), childhood polyarteritis nodosa (c-PAN), c-Wegener granulomatosis (c-WG) and c-Takayasu arteritis (c-TA) classification criteria.Methods The preliminary Vienna 2005 consensus conference, which proposed preliminary criteria for paediatric vasculitides, was followed by a EULAR/PRINTO/PRES-supported validation project divided into three main steps. Step 1: retrospective/prospective web-data collection for HSP, c-PAN, c-WG and c-TA, with age at diagnosis <= 18 years. Step 2: blinded classification by consensus panel of a subgroup of 280 cases (128 difficult cases, 152 randomly selected) enabling expert diagnostic verification. Step 3: Ankara 2008 Consensus Conference and statistical evaluation (sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve, kappa-agreement) using as 'gold standard' the final consensus classification or original treating physician diagnosis.Results A total of 1183/1398 (85%) samples collected were available for analysis: 827 HSP, 150 c-PAN, 60 c-WG, 87 c-TA and 59 c-other. Prevalence, signs/symptoms, laboratory, biopsy and imaging reports were consistent with the clinical picture of the four c-vasculitides. A representative subgroup of 280 patients was blinded to the treating physician diagnosis and classified by a consensus panel, with kappa-agreement of 0.96 for HSP (95% CI 0.84 to 1), 0.88 for c-WG (95% CI 0.76 to 0.99), 0.84 for c-TA (95% CI 0.73 to 0.96) and 0.73 for c-PAN (95% CI 0.62 to 0.84), with an overall. of 0.79 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.84).Conclusion EULAR/PRINTO/PRES propose validated classification criteria for HSP, c-PAN, c-WG and c-TA, with substantial/almost perfect agreement with the final consensus classification or original treating physician diagnosis.

Hypoxia Enhances the Angiogenic Potential of Human Dental Pulp Cells

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Thyroid State and Tolerance of Mammalian Myocardium to Hypoxia

Thyroid hormone is known to affect myocardial glycogen stores and thereby possibly limit anaerobic performance of mammalian cardiac muscle. Thyroid hormone administration (3,5,T-triiodo-L-thyroxine, 300 mu g/kg/day, sc) for 10 days decreased left ventricle (LV) glycogen concentration relative to euthyroid animals (2.78 +/- 0.46 vs. 4.28 +/- 0.29 mg/g of LV (mean +/- SEM)) while increasing the percent of V(1) myosin isozyi-ne, contractile activity and cardiac mass. In contrast, thyroidectomy increased myocardial glycogen stores (8.50 +/- 0.56 mg/g of LV) and shifted the myosin isozyme toward V(3), prolonged contractile activity and decreased LV mass. Thyroxine administration for 3, 7 and 10 days to thyroidectomized animals progressively decreased contractile duration and increased LV mass. Thyroxine administration for 3 or 7 days to thyroidectomized rats did not reduce glycogen stores (7.75 +/- 1.02 and 9.62 +/- 1.16 mg/g of LV, respectively), whereas myocardial glycogen declined to 3.30 +/- 0.58 mg/g of LV after 10 days of treatment. During hypoxia, cardiac muscle from thyroidectomized rats maintained greater active force and developed less contracture relative to euthyroid and, to a greater extent, than hyperthyroid rats. Removal of glucose from the bath decreased anaerobic performance and impaired recovery; however, myocardium from thyroidectomized rats remained more tolerant to hypoxia than the euthyroid group. Overall, the intrinsic LV glycogen content was positively correlated to anaerobic performance. These data demonstrate that the thyroid state profoundly affects myocardial growth, contractility and anaerobic performance of rat myocardium. Although energy demand may affect function during hypoxia, anaerobic substrate reserve (cardiac glycogen concentration) appears to be the primary factor determining tolerance to hypoxic stress. J. Exp. Zool. 311A:399-407, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Congenital deformity of the paw in a captive tiger: case report

Background: The aim of this report was to describe the clinical signs, diagnostic approach, treatment and outcome in the case of a tiger with a deformity of the paw.Case presentation: A 1.5-year-old tiger (Panthera tigris) was presented with lameness of the left thoracic limb. A deformity involving the first and second metacarpal bones, and a soft tissue separation between the second and third metacarpal bones of the left front paw were observed. The second digit constantly struck the ground during locomotion. Based on the physical and radiographic evaluations, a diagnosis of ectrodactyly was made. A soft tissue reconstruction of the cleft with excision of both the second digit and distal portion of the second metacarpal bone was performed. Marked improvement of the locomotion was observed after surgical treatment, although the tiger showed a low degree of lameness probably associated with the discrepancy in length between the thoracic limbs.Conclusion: This report shows a rare deformity in an exotic feline that it is compatible to ectrodactyly. Reconstructive surgery of the cleft resulted in significant improvement of limb function.