Quantitative risk assessment of groundwater quality utilizing GIS technology and coupled groundwater models

The thesis presents a two-dimensional Risk Assessment Method (RAM) where the assessment of risk to the groundwater resources incorporates both the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The approach emphasizes the need for a greater dependency on the potential pollution sources, rather than the traditional approach where assessment is based mainly on the intrinsic geo-hydrologic parameters. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby random pollution events were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring events or a priori potential probability distribution. Integrated mathematical models then simulate contaminant concentrations at the predefined monitoring points within the aquifer. The spatial and temporal distributions of the concentrations were calculated from repeated realisations, and the number of times when a user defined concentration magnitude was exceeded is quantified as a risk. The method was setup by integrating MODFLOW-2000, MT3DMS and a FORTRAN coded risk model, and automated, using a DOS batch processing file. GIS software was employed in producing the input files and for the presentation of the results. The functionalities of the method, as well as its sensitivities to the model grid sizes, contaminant loading rates, length of stress periods, and the historical frequencies of occurrence of pollution events were evaluated using hypothetical scenarios and a case study. Chloride-related pollution sources were compiled and used as indicative potential contaminant sources for the case study. At any active model cell, if a random generated number is less than the probability of pollution occurrence, then the risk model will generate synthetic contaminant source term as an input into the transport model. The results of the applications of the method are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatial maps. Varying the model grid sizes indicates no significant effects on the simulated groundwater head. The simulated frequency of daily occurrence of pollution incidents is also independent of the model dimensions. However, the simulated total contaminant mass generated within the aquifer, and the associated volumetric numerical error appear to increase with the increasing grid sizes. Also, the migration of contaminant plume advances faster with the coarse grid sizes as compared to the finer grid sizes. The number of daily contaminant source terms generated and consequently the total mass of contaminant within the aquifer increases in a non linear proportion to the increasing frequency of occurrence of pollution events. The risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated, and quantitatively presented as risk maps. This capability to combine the risk to a groundwater feature from numerous potential sources of pollution proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary risk and vulnerability methods.

An expert system for the development of a health and safety policy/risk assessment in the plastics industry

Health and safety policies may be regarded as the cornerstone for positive prevention of occupational accidents and diseases. The Health and Safety at Work, etc Act 1974 makes it a legal duty for employers to prepare and revise a written statement of a general policy with respect to the health and safety at work of employees as well as the organisation and arrangements for carrying out that policy. Despite their importance and the legal equipment to prepare them, health and safety policies have been found, in a large number of plastics processing companies (particularly small companies), to be poorly prepared, inadequately implemented and monitored. An important cause of these inadequacies is the lack of necessary health and safety knowledge and expertise to prepare, implement and monitor policies. One possible way of remedying this problem is to investigate the feasibility of using computers to develop expert system programs to simulate the health and safety (HS) experts' task of preparing the policies and assisting companies implement and monitor them. Such programs use artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to solve this sort of problems which are heuristic in nature and require symbolic reasoning. Expert systems have been used successfully in a variety of fields such as medicine and engineering. An important phase in the feasibility of development of such systems is the engineering of knowledge which consists of identifying the knowledge required, eliciting, structuring and representing it in an appropriate computer programming language.

Risk assessment applied to comsumer products with reference to CE marking machines for use at work

New Approach’ Directives now govern the health and safety of most products whether destined for workplace or domestic use. These Directives have been enacted into UK law by various specific legislation principally relating to work equipment, machinery and consumer products. This research investigates whether the risk assessment approach used to ensure the safety of machinery may be applied to consumer products. Crucially, consumer products are subject to the Consumer Protection Act (CPA) 1987, where there is no direct reference to “assessing risk”. This contrasts with the law governing the safety of products used in the workplace, where risk assessment underpins the approach. New Approach Directives are supported by European harmonised standards, and in the case of machinery, further supported by the risk assessment standard, EN 1050. The system regulating consumer product safety is discussed, its key elements identified and a graphical model produced. This model incorporates such matters as conformity assessment, the system of regulation, near miss and accident reporting. A key finding of the research is that New Approach Directives have a common feature of specifying essential performance requirements that provide a hazard prompt-list that can form the basis for a risk assessment (the hazard identification stage). Drawing upon 272 prosecution cases, and with thirty examples examined in detail, this research provides evidence that despite the high degree of regulation, unsafe consumer products still find their way onto the market. The research presents a number of risk assessment tools to help Trading Standards Officers (TSOs) prioritise their work at the initial inspection stage when dealing with subsequent enforcement action.

Substances hazardous to health:the nature of the expertise associated with competent risk assessment

This research investigated expertise in hazardous substance risk assessment (HSRA). Competent pro-active risk assessment is needed to prevent occupational ill-health caused by hazardous substance exposure occurring in the future. In recent years there has been a strong demand for HSRA expertise and a shortage of expert practitioners. The discipline of Occupational Hygiene was identified as the key repository of knowledge and skills for HSRA and one objective of this research was to develop a method to elicit this expertise from experienced occupational hygienists. In the study of generic expertise, many methods of knowledge elicitation (KE) have been investigated, since this has been relevant to the development of 'expert systems' (thinking computers). Here, knowledge needed to be elicited from human experts, and this stage was often a bottleneck in system development, since experts could not explain the basis of their expertise. At an intermediate stage, information collected was used to structure a basic model of hazardous substance risk assessment activity (HSRA Model B) and this formed the basis of tape transcript analysis in the main study with derivation of a 'classification' and a 'performance matrix'. The study aimed to elicit the expertise of occupational hygienists and compare their performance with other health and safety professionals (occupational health physicians, occupational health nurses, health and safety practitioners and trainee health and safety inspectors), as evaluated using the matrix. As a group, the hygienists performed best in the exercise, and this group were particularly good at process elicitation and at recommending specific control measures, although the other groups also performed well in selected aspects of the matrix and the work provided useful findings and insights. From the research, two models of HSRA have been derived, an HSRA aid, together with a novel videotape KE technique and interesting research findings. The implications of this are discussed with respect to future training of HS professionals and wider application of the videotape KE method.

Risk management in enterprise resource planning implementation:a new risk assessment framework

Enterprise resource planning (ERP) projects are risky. But if they are implemented appropriately, they can provide competitive advantage to organisations. Therefore, ERP implementation has become one of the most critical aspects of today's information management research. The main purpose of this article is to describe a new ERP risk assessment framework (RAF) that can be used to increase the success of ERP implementation. In this article, through a case study based in a leading UK-based energy service provider, we demonstrate the new RAF, which has been shown to help identify and mitigate risks in ERP implementation. In contrast to other research, this RAF identifies risks hierarchically in external engagement, programme management, work stream and work package levels across technical, schedule, operational, business and organisational categories. This not only helped to develop responses to mitigate risks but also facilitates on-going risk control.

Situation-specific cognitive behavioural self-therapy for erroneously suspected allergy or intolerance to a food:a short self-assessment tool

The recall of personal experiences relevant to a claim of food allergy or food intolerance is assessed by a psychologically validated tool for evidence that the suspected food could have caused the adverse symptom suffered. The tool looks at recall from memory of a particular episode or episodes when food was followed by symptoms resulting in self-diagnosis of food allergy or intolerance compared to merely theoretical knowledge that such symptoms could arise after eating the food. If there is detailed recall of events that point to the food as a potential cause of the symptom and the symptom is sufficiently serious, the tool user is recommended to seek testing at an allergy clinic or by the appropriate specialist for a non-allergic sensitivity. If what is recalled does not support the logical possibility of a causal connection between eating that food and occurrence of the symptom, then the user of the tool is pointed to other potential sources of the problem. The user is also recommended to investigate remedies other than avoidance of the food that had been blamed.