Problems in estimating the response functions of natural climatic recording systems [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): High-resolution proxy records of climate, such as varves, ice cores, and tree-rings, provide the opportunity for reconstructing climate on a year-by-year basis. In order to do so it is necessary to approximate the complex nonlinear response function of the natural recording system using linear statistical models. Three problems with this approach were discussed, and possible solutions were suggested. Examples were given from a reconstruction of Santa Barbara precipitation based on tree-ring records from Santa Barbara County.

Fisheries databases for assessing habitat functions of Cape Romain NWR

The US Fish and Wildlife Service Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (CRNWR) and the Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research (CCEHBR) at Charleston are interested in assessing the status of our coastal resources in light of increased coastal development and recreational use. Through an Interagency Agreement (FWS #1448-40181-00-H-001), an ecological characterization was undertaken to describe the status of and potential impacts to resources at CRNWR. This report describes historic fisheries-independent or non-commercial data relevant to CRNWR that can be used to evaluate the role of the Refuge as habitat for nearshore and offshore fish species. The purpose of this document is two-fold, first to give resource managers an understanding of fisheries data that have been collected over the years and, second, to illustrate how these data can be applied to address specific management issues. This report provides an overview of historic fisheries data collected along the southeast coast, as well as basic summaries of that data relevant to CRNWR, indicating how these data can be used to address specific questions of interest to Refuge managers and biologists.

Modeling red sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus franciscanus) growth using six growth functions

The growth of red sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus franciscanus) was modeled by using tag-recapture data from northern California. Red sea urchins (n=211) ranging in test diameter from 7 to 131 mm were examined for changes in size over one year. We used the function Jt+1 = Jt + f(Jt) to model growth, in which Jt is the jaw size (mm) at tagging, and Jt+1 is the jaw size one year later. The function f(Jt), represents one of six deterministic models: logistic dose response, Gaussian, Tanaka, Ricker, Richards, and von Bertalanffy with 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, and 2 minimization parameters, respectively. We found that three measures of goodness of fi t ranked the models similarly, in the order given. The results from these six models indicate that red sea urchins are slow growing animals (mean of 7.2 ±1.3 years to enter the fishery). We show that poor model selection or data from a limited range of urchin sizes (or both) produces erroneous growth parameter estimates and years-to-fishery estimates. Individual variation in growth dominated spatial variation at shallow and deep sites (F=0.246, n=199, P=0.62). We summarize the six models using a composite growth curve of jaw size, J, as a function of time, t: J = A(B – e–Ct) + Dt, in which each model is distinguished by the constants A, B, C, and D. We suggest that this composite model has the flexibility of the other six models and could be broadly applied. Given the robustness of our results regarding the number of years to enter the fishery, this information could be incorporated into future fishery management plans for red sea urchins in northern California.