878 resultados para Uncertainty in generation
Resumo:
Prebreakdown currents in a coaxial cylindrical geometry in nitrogen have been measured with and without a crossed magnetic field. The range of parameters used in the investigation are 2.6 ÿ p ÿ 14.5 torr, 50 ÿ (E/p) ÿ 420 V cm-1 torr-1, and 43.0 ÿ H/p ÿ 1185 Oe torr-1 (p is the pressure, E is the electric field, and H is the magnetic field). The initial photoelectric current is obtained by allowing photons produced in an auxiliary glow discharge to strike the cathode. Ions and electrons produced in the auxiliary discharge are prevented from reaching the main gap by suitable shielding. By modifying the Rice equation for back diffusion, the measured ionization current multiplication without a crossed magnetic field is compared with the multiplication predicted by the Townsend growth equation for nonuniform electric fields. It is observed that over the range of 50 Ã�¿ (E/P)max Ã�¿ 250 [(E/P)max is the value of E/p at the central electrode of the coaxial system] measured and calculated multiplication of current agree with each other. With a crossed magnetic field the prebreakdown currents have been measured and compared with the theoretically calculated currents using the equivalent pressure concept. Agreement between the calculated and measured currents is not satisfactory, and this has been attributed more to the uncertainty in the collision frequency data available than nonuniformity of the electric field. Sparking potentials have been measured with and without a crossed magnetic field.
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The GasBench II peripheral along with MAT 253 combination provides a more sensitive platform for the determination of water isotope ratios. Here, we examined the role of adsorbed moisture within the gas chromatography (GC) column of the GasBench II on measurement uncertainties. The uncertainty in O-18/O-16 ratio measurements is determined by several factors, including the presence of water in the GC. The contamination of GC with water originating from samples as water vapour over a longer timeframe is a critical factor in determining the reproducibility of O-18/O-16 ratios in water samples. The shift in isotope ratios observed in the experiment under dry and wet conditions correlates strongly with the retention time of analyte CO2, indicating the effect of accumulated moisture. Two possible methods to circumvent or minimise the effect of adsorbed water on isotope ratios are presented here. The proposed methodology includes either the regular baking of the GC column at a higher temperature (120 degrees C) after analysis of a batch of 32 sample entries or conducting the experiment at a low GC column temperature (22.5 degrees C). The effects of water contamination on long-term reproducibility of reference water, with and without baking protocol, have been described.
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This paper presents a study of the wave propagation responses in composite structures in an uncertain environment. Here, the main aim of the work is to quantify the effect of uncertainty in the wave propagation responses at high frequencies. The material properties are considered uncertain and the analysis is performed using Neumann expansion blended with Monte Carlo simulation under the environment of spectral finite element method. The material randomness is included in the conventional wave propagation analysis by different distributions (namely, the normal and the Weibul distribution) and their effect on wave propagation in a composite beam is analyzed. The numerical results presented investigates the effect of material uncertainties on different parameters, namely, wavenumber and group speed, which are relevant in the wave propagation analysis. The effect of the parameters, such as fiber orientation, lay-up sequence, number of layers, and the layer thickness on the uncertain responses due to dynamic impulse load, is thoroughly analyzed. Significant changes are observed in the high frequency responses with the variation in the above parameters, even for a small coefficient of variation. High frequency impact loads are applied and a number of interesting results are presented, which brings out the true effects of uncertainty in the high frequency responses. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4003945]
Resumo:
Genetic alterations like point mutations, insertions, deletions, inversions and translocations are frequently found in cancers. Chromosomal translocations are one of the most common genomic aberrations associated with nearly all types of cancers especially leukemia and lymphoma. Recent studies have shown the role of non-B DNA structures in generation of translocations. In the present study, using various bioinformatic tools, we show the propensity of formation of different types of altered DNA structures near translocation breakpoint regions. In particular, we find close association between occurrence of G-quadruplex forming motifs and fragile regions in almost 70% of genes involved in rearrangements in lymphoid cancers. However, such an analysis did not provide any evidence for the occurrence of G-quadruplexes at the close vicinity of translocation breakpoint regions in nonlymphoid cancers. Overall, this study will help in the identification of novel non-B DNA targets that may be responsible for generation of chromosomal translocations in cancer. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Aerosol forcing remains a dominant uncertainty in climate studies. The impact of aerosol direct radiative forcing on Indian monsoon is extremely complex and is strongly dependent on the model, aerosol distribution and characteristics specified in the model, modelling strategy employed as well as on spatial and temporal scales. The present study investigates (i) the aerosol direct radiative forcing impact on mean Indian summer monsoon when a combination of quasi-realistic mean annual cycles of scattering and absorbing aerosols derived from an aerosol transport model constrained with satellite observed Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is prescribed, (ii) the dominant feedback mechanism behind the simulated impact of all-aerosol direct radiative forcing on monsoon and (iii) the relative impacts of absorbing and scattering aerosols on mean Indian summer monsoon. We have used CAM3, an atmospheric GCM (AGCM) that has a comprehensive treatment of the aerosol-radiation interaction. This AGCM has been used to perform climate simulations with three different representations of aerosol direct radiative forcing due to the total, scattering aerosols and black carbon aerosols. We have also conducted experiments without any aerosol forcing. Aerosol direct impact due to scattering aerosols causes significant reduction in summer monsoon precipitation over India with a tendency for southward shift of Tropical Convergence Zones (TCZs) over the Indian region. Aerosol forcing reduces surface solar absorption over the primary rainbelt region of India and reduces the surface and lower tropospheric temperatures. Concurrent warming of the lower atmosphere over the warm oceanic region in the south reduces the land-ocean temperature contrast and weakens the monsoon overturning circulation and the advection of moisture into the landmass. This increases atmospheric convective stability, and decreases convection, clouds, precipitation and associated latent heat release. Our analysis reveals a defining negative moisture-advection feedback that acts as an internal damping mechanism spinning down the regional hydrological cycle and leading to significant circulation changes in response to external radiative forcing perturbations. When total aerosol loading (both absorbing and scattering aerosols) is prescribed, dust and black carbon aerosols are found to cause significant atmospheric heating over the monsoon region but the aerosol-induced weakening of meridional lower tropospheric temperature gradient (leading to weaker summer monsoon rainfall) more than offsets the increase in summer-time rainfall resulting from the atmospheric heating effect of absorbing aerosols, leading to a net decrease of summer monsoon rainfall. Further, we have carried out climate simulations with globally constant AODs and also with the constant AODs over the extended Indian region replaced by realistic AODs. Regional aerosol radiative forcing perturbations over the Indian region is found to have impact not only over the region of loading but over remote tropical regions as well. This warrants the need to prescribe realistic aerosol properties in strategic regions such as India in order to accurately assess the aerosol impact.
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Water is the most important medium through which climate change influences human life. Rising temperatures together with regional changes in precipitation patterns are some of the impacts of climate change that have implications on water availability, frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, soil moisture, water quality, water supply and water demands for irrigation and hydropower generation. In this article we provide an introduction to the emerging field of hydrologic impacts of climate change with a focus on water availability, water quality and irrigation demands. Climate change estimates on regional or local spatial scales are burdened with a considerable amount of uncertainty, stemming from various sources such as climate models, downscaling and hydrological models used in the impact assessments and uncertainty in the downscaling relationships. The present article summarizes the recent advances on uncertainty modeling and regional impacts of climate change for the Mahanadi and Tunga-Bhadra Rivers in India.
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We consider the problem of Probably Ap-proximate Correct (PAC) learning of a bi-nary classifier from noisy labeled exam-ples acquired from multiple annotators(each characterized by a respective clas-sification noise rate). First, we consider the complete information scenario, where the learner knows the noise rates of all the annotators. For this scenario, we derive sample complexity bound for the Mini-mum Disagreement Algorithm (MDA) on the number of labeled examples to be ob-tained from each annotator. Next, we consider the incomplete information sce-nario, where each annotator is strategic and holds the respective noise rate as a private information. For this scenario, we design a cost optimal procurement auc-tion mechanism along the lines of Myer-son’s optimal auction design framework in a non-trivial manner. This mechanism satisfies incentive compatibility property,thereby facilitating the learner to elicit true noise rates of all the annotators.
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Mycobacteria are an important group of pathogenic bacteria. We generated a series of DNA repair deficient strains of Mycobacterium smegmatis, a model organism, to understand the importance of various DNA repair proteins (UvrB, Ung, UdgB, MutY and Fpg) in survival of the pathogenic strains. Here, we compared tolerance of the M. smegmatis strains to genotoxic stress (ROS and RNI) under aerobic, hypoxic and recovery conditions of growth by monitoring their survival. We show an increased susceptibility of mycobacteria to genotoxic stress under hypoxia. UvrB deficiency led to high susceptibility of M. smegmatis to the DNA damaging agents. Ung was second in importance in strains with single deficiencies. Interestingly, we observed that while deficiency of UdgB had only a minor impact on the strain's susceptibility, its combination with Ung deficiency resulted in severe consequences on the strain's survival under genotoxic stress suggesting a strong interdependence of different DNA repair pathways in safeguarding genomic integrity. Our observations reinforce the possibility of targeting DNA repair processes in mycobacteria for therapeutic intervention during active growth and latency phase of the pathogen. High susceptibility of the UvrB, or the Ung/UdgB deficient strains to genotoxic stress may be exploited in generation of attenuated strains of mycobacteria. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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We propose a simulation-based algorithm for computing the optimal pricing policy for a product under uncertain demand dynamics. We consider a parameterized stochastic differential equation (SDE) model for the uncertain demand dynamics of the product over the planning horizon. In particular, we consider a dynamic model that is an extension of the Bass model. The performance of our algorithm is compared to that of a myopic pricing policy and is shown to give better results. Two significant advantages with our algorithm are as follows: (a) it does not require information on the system model parameters if the SDE system state is known via either a simulation device or real data, and (b) as it works efficiently even for high-dimensional parameters, it uses the efficient smoothed functional gradient estimator.
Resumo:
Composite materials are very useful in structural engineering particularly in weight sensitive applications. Two different test models of the same structure made from composite materials can display very different dynamic behavior due to large uncertainties associated with composite material properties. Also, composite structures can suffer from pre-existing imperfections like delaminations, voids or cracks during fabrication. In this paper, we show that modeling and material uncertainties in composite structures can cause considerable problein in damage assessment. A recently developed C-0 shear deformable locking free refined composite plate element is employed in the numerical simulations to alleviate modeling uncertainty. A qualitative estimate of the impact of modeling uncertainty on the damage detection problem is made. A robust Fuzzy Logic System (FLS) with sliding window defuzzifier is used for delamination damage detection in composite plate type structures. The FLS is designed using variations in modal frequencies due to randomness in material properties. Probabilistic analysis is performed using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) on a composite plate finite element model. It is demonstrated that the FLS shows excellent robustness in delamination detection at very high levels of randomness in input data. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The cod stock in the Western Baltic Sea is assessed to be overfished regarding the definitions of the UN World Summit on Sustainable Development at Johannesburg in 2002. Thus, the European Fisheries Council enforced a multi-annual management plan in 2007. Our medium term simulations over the future 10 years assume similar stock productivity as compared with the past four decades and indicate that the goals of the management plan can be achieved through TAC and consistent effort regulations. Taking account of the uncertainty in the recruitment patterns, the target average fishing mortality of age groups 3 – 6 years of F = 0.6 per year as defined in the management plan is indicated to exceed sustainable levels consistent with high long term yields and low risk of depletion. The stipulated constraint of the annual TAC variations of ±15% will dominate future fisheries management and implies a high recovery potential of the stock through continued reductions in fishing mortality. The scientific assessment of sustainable levels of exploitation and consideration in the plan is strongly advised, taking account of uncertainties attributed to environmental and biological effects. We recommend our study to be complemented with economic impact assessments including effects on by-catch species, which have been disregarded in this study. It is further demonstrated, that the goals of the management plan can alternatively be achieved by mesh size adaptations. An alternative technical option of mesh size increases to realize the required reductions in fishing mortality provides avoidance of discards of undersized fish after a few years by means of improved selectivity, another important element of the Common Fisheries Policy. However, it is emphasized that technical regulations since 1990 failed to affect the by-catch and discards of juvenile cod. In any way, the meaningful implementation of the multiannual management plan through stringent control and enforcement appears critical.