Passive urban ventilation by combined buoyancy-driven slope flow and wall flow: Parametric CFD studies on idealized city models

This paper reports the results of a parametric CFD study on idealized city models to investigate the potential of slope flow in ventilating a city located in a mountainous region when the background synoptic wind is absent. Examples of such a city include Tokyo in Japan, Los Angeles and Phoenix in the US, and Hong Kong. Two types of buoyancy-driven flow are considered, i.e., slope flow from the mountain slope (katabatic wind at night and anabatic wind in the daytime), and wall flow due to heated/cooled urban surfaces. The combined buoyancy-driven flow system can serve the purpose of dispersing the accumulated urban air pollutants when the background wind is weak or absent. The microscopic picture of ventilation performance within the urban structures was evaluated in terms of air change rate (ACH) and age of air. The simulation results reveal that the slope flow plays an important role in ventilating the urban area, especially in calm conditions. Katabatic flow at night is conducive to mitigating the nocturnal urban heat island. In the present parametric study, the mountain slope angle and mountain height are assumed to be constant, and the changing variables are heating/cooling intensity and building height. For a typical mountain of 500 m inclined at an angle of 20° to the horizontal level, the interactive structure is very much dependent on the ratio of heating/cooling intensity as well as building height. When the building is lower than 60 m, the slope wind dominates. When the building is as high as 100 m, the contribution from the urban wall flow cannot be ignored. It is found that katabatic wind can be very beneficial to the thermal environment as well as air quality at the pedestrian level. The air change rate for the pedestrian volume can be as high as 300 ACH.

‘NSC 68 and the Soviet Threat: A New Perspective on Western Threat Perception and Policy Making’

It has been argued that the US strategy paper NSC 68 of 1950 which ushered in the great Cold War rearmament process first in the US and then in NATO was a vast overreaction. This paper argues, by contrast, that given the intelligence about the Soviet Union's and its satellites' military buildup and the role of China in that period, this was a reasonable strategy to embrace.

Aerosol forcing in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations by HadGEM2-ES and the role of ammonium nitrate

The latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM2-ES, includes Earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols. It has been run for the period 1860–2100 in support of the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Anthropogenic aerosol emissions peak between 1980 and 2020, resulting in a present-day all-sky top of the atmosphere aerosol forcing of −1.6 and −1.4 W m−2 with and without ammonium nitrate aerosols, respectively, for the sum of direct and first indirect aerosol forcings. Aerosol forcing becomes significantly weaker in the 21st century, being weaker than −0.5 W m−2 in 2100 without nitrate. However, nitrate aerosols become the dominant species in Europe and Asia and decelerate the decrease in global mean aerosol forcing. Considering nitrate aerosols makes aerosol radiative forcing 2–4 times stronger by 2100 depending on the representative concentration pathway, although this impact is lessened when changes in the oxidation properties of the atmosphere are accounted for. Anthropogenic aerosol residence times increase in the future in spite of increased precipitation, as cloud cover and aerosol-cloud interactions decrease in tropical and midlatitude regions. Deposition of fossil fuel black carbon onto snow and ice surfaces peaks during the 20th century in the Arctic and Europe but keeps increasing in the Himalayas until the middle of the 21st century. Results presented here confirm the importance of aerosols in influencing the Earth's climate, albeit with a reduced impact in the future, and suggest that nitrate aerosols will partially replace sulphate aerosols to become an important anthropogenic species in the remainder of the 21st century.

Real estate markets and the macroeconomy: a dynamic coherence framework

This paper analyzes the dynamic interactions between real estate markets, in the US and the UK and their macroeconomic environments. We apply a new approach based on a dynamic coherence function (DCF) to study these interactions bringing together different real estate markets (the securitized market, the commercial market and the residential market). The results suggest that there is a common trend that drives the different real estate markets in the UK and the US, particularly in the long run, since they have a similar shape of the DCF. We also find that, in the US, wealth and housing expenditure channels are very conductive during real estate crises. However, in the UK, only the wealth effect is significant as a transmission channel during real estate market downturns. In addition, real estate markets in the UK and the US react differently to institutional shocks. This brings some insights on the conduct of monetary policy in order to avoid disturbances in real estate markets.

Human microbiota in health and disease

Each human body plays host to a microbial population which is both numerically vast (at around 1014 microbial cells) and phenomenally diverse (over 1,000 species). The majority of the microbial species in the gut have not been cultured but the application of culture-independent approaches for high throughput diversity and functionality analysis has allowed characterisation of the diverse microbial phylotypes present in health and disease. Studies in monozygotic twins, showing that these retain highly similar microbiota decades after birth and initial colonisation, are strongly indicative that diversity of the microbiome is host-specific and affected by the genotype. Microbial diversity in the human body is reflected in both richness and evenness. Diversity increases steeply from birth reaching its highest point in early adulthood, before declining in older age. However, in healthy subjects there appears to be a core of microbial phylotypes which remains relatively stable over time. Studies of individuals from diverse geopraphies suggest that clusters of intestinal bacterial groups tend to occur together, constituting ‘enterotypes’. So variation in intestinal microbiota is stratified rather than continuous and there may be a limited number of host/microbial states which respond differently to environmental influences. Exploration of enterotypes and functional groups may provide biomarkers for disease and insights into the potential for new treatments based on manipulation of the microbiome. In health, the microbiota interact with host defences and exist in harmonious homeostasis which can then be disturbed by invading organisms or when ‘carpet bombing’ by antibiotics occurs. In a portion of individuals with infections, the disease will resolve itself without the need for antibiotics and microbial homeostasis with the host’s defences is restored. The administration of probiotics (live microorganisms which when administered in adequate amounts confer a health benefit on the host) represents an artificial way to enhance or stimulate these natural processes. The study of innate mechanisms of antimicrobial defence on the skin, including the production of numerous antimicrobial peptides (AMPs), has shown an important role for skin commensal organisms. These organisms may produce AMPs, and also amplify the innate immune responses to pathogens by activating signalling pathways and processing host produced AMPs. Research continues into how to enhance and manipulate the role of commensal organisms on the skin. The challenges of skin infection (including diseases caused by multiply resistant organisms) and infestations remain considerable. The potential to re-colonise the skin to replace or reduce pathogens, and exploring the relationship between microbiota elsewhere and skin diseases are among a growing list of research targets. Lactobacillus species are among the best known ‘beneficial’ bacterial members of the human microbiota. Of the approximately 120 species known, about 15 are known to occur in the human vagina. These organisms have multiple properties, including the production of lactic acid, hydrogen peroxide and bacteriocins, which render the vagina inhospitable to potential pathogens. Depletion of the of the normal Lactobacillus population and overgrowth of vaginal anaerobes, accompanied by the loss of normal vaginal acidity can lead to bacterial vaginosis – the commonest cause of abnormal vaginal discharge in women. Some vaginal anaerobes are associated with the formation of vaginal biofilms which serve to act as a reservoir of organisms which persists after standard antibiotic therapy of bacterial vaginosis and may help to account for the characteristically high relapse rate in the condition. Administration of Lactobacillus species both vaginally and orally have shown beneficial effects in the treatment of bacterial vaginosis and such treatments have an excellent overall safety record. Candida albicans is a frequent coloniser of human skin and mucosal membranes, and is a normal part of the microbiota in the mouth, gut and vagina. Nevertheless Candida albicans is the most common fungal pathogen worldwide and is a leading cause of serious and often fatal nosocomial infections. What turns this organism from a commensal to a pathogen is a combination of increasing virulence in the organism and predisposing host factors that compromise immunity. There has been considerable research into the use of probiotic Lactobacillus spp. in vaginal candidiasis. Studies in reconstituted human epithelium and monolayer cell cultures have shown that L. rhamnosus GG can protect mucosa from damage caused by Candida albicans, and enhance the immune responses of mucosal surfaces. Such findings offer the promise that the use of such probiotic bacteria could provide new options for antifungal therapy. Studies of changes of the human intestinal microbiota in health and disease are complicated by its size and diversity. The Alimentary Pharmabiotic Centre in Cork (Republic of Ireland) has the mission to ‘mine microbes for mankind’ and its work illustrates the potential benefits of understanding the gut microbiota. Work undertaken at the centre includes: mapping changes in the microbiota with age; studies of the interaction between the microbiota and the gut; potential interactions between the gut microbiota and the central nervous system; the potential for probiotics to act as anti-infectives including through the production of bacteriocins; and the characterisation of interactions between gut microbiota and bile acids which have important roles as signalling molecules and in immunity. The important disease entity where the role of the gut microbiota appears to be central is the Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS). IBS patients show evidence of immune activation, impaired gut barrier function and abnormal gut microbiota. Studies with probiotics have shown that these organisms can exert anti-inflammatory effects in inflammatory bowel disease and may strengthen the gut barrier in IBS of the diarrhoea-predominant type. Formal randomised trials of probiotics in IBS show mixed results with limited benefit for some but not all. Studies confirm that administered probiotics can survive and temporarily colonise the gut. They can also stimulate the numbers of other lactic acid bacilli in the gut, and reduce the numbers of pathogens. However consuming live organisms is not the only way to influence gut microbiota. Dietary prebiotics are selectively fermented ingredients that can change the composition and/or activity of the gastrointestinal microbiota in beneficial ways. Dietary components that reach the colon, and are available to influence the microbiota include poorly digestible carbohydrates, such as non-starch polysaccharides, resistant starch, non-digestible oligosaccharides (NDOs) and polyphenols. Mixtures of probiotic and prebiotic ingredients that can selectively stimulate growth or activity of health promoting bacteria have been termed ‘synbiotics’. All of these approaches can influence gut microbial ecology, mainly to increase bifidobacteria and lactobacilli, but metagenomic approaches may reveal wider effects. Characterising how these changes produce physiological benefits may enable broader use of these tactics in health and disease in the future. The current status of probiotic products commercially available worldwide is less than ideal. Prevalent problems include misidentification of ingredient organisms and poor viability of probiotic microorganisms leading to inadequate shelf life. On occasions these problems mean that some commercially available products cannot be considered to meet the definition of a probiotic product. Given the potential benefits of manipulating the human microbiota for beneficial effects, there is a clear need for improved regulation of probiotics. The potential importance of the human microbiota cannot be overstated. ‘We feed our microbes, they talk to us and we benefit. We just have to understand and then exploit this.’ (Willem de Vos).

Best practice in the training, appointment and remuneration of members of dispute boards for large infrastructure projects

This paper reports part of a qualitative study into evolving practice in the implementation of the Dispute Adjudication Board (DAB) construction dispute resolution technique, a variant of the Dispute Review Board (DRB) concept used in the US and Canada. Data was collected through a focus group interview of 20 highly experienced dispute resolution practitioners from engineering and the law. The group was assembled from members of FIDIC-NET with direct experience of project DABs. The part reported here concerns practice and procedure for establishing DABs. The main findings are that: constitution of the DABs is often delayed because of either project owners' ignorance of the DAB process or deterrence by the cost of the DABs; such owners also tend to insist on appointing DAB members from local engineers and lawyers without sufficient understanding of the DAB process; rates of remuneration of DAB members vary widely; the training provision for DAB membership and advocacy skills is inadequate; the process of selecting candidates for DAB membership and negotiating the tripartite agreement between each member and the contractual parties needs to be navigated with great care to avoid raising ethical problems. The research contribution is threefold. First, it highlights the importance of realistic fees for DAB members within a standard framework in achieving timely establishment of a board that works well as a team. Second, it illustrates the use of qualitative focus group interview to study the impact of new contract terms from multiple stakeholder perspectives. Finally, it identifies areas where further research is needed.

Threshold autoregressive and Markov switching models: an application to commercial real estate

Although financial theory rests heavily upon the assumption that asset returns are normally distributed, value indices of commercial real estate display significant departures from normality. In this paper, we apply and compare the properties of two recently proposed regime switching models for value indices of commercial real estate in the US and the UK, both of which relax the assumption that observations are drawn from a single distribution with constant mean and variance. Statistical tests of the models' specification indicate that the Markov switching model is better able to capture the non-stationary features of the data than the threshold autoregressive model, although both represent superior descriptions of the data than the models that allow for only one state. Our results have several implications for theoretical models and empirical research in finance.

Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months characterized by multiple cyclones over Western Europe (February 1990, January 1993, December 1999, and January 2007). The evolution of the eddy driven jet stream, Rossby wave-breaking, and upstream/downstream cyclone development are investigated to infer the role of the large-scale flow and to determine if clustered cyclones are related to each other. Results suggest that optimal conditions for the occurrence of cyclone clusters are provided by a recurrent extension of an intensified eddy driven jet toward Western Europe lasting at least 1 week. Multiple Rossby wave-breaking occurrences on both the poleward and equatorward flanks of the jet contribute to the development of these anomalous large-scale conditions. The analysis of the daily weather charts reveals that upstream cyclone development (secondary cyclogenesis, where new cyclones are generated on the trailing fronts of mature cyclones) is strongly related to cyclone clustering, with multiple cyclones developing on a single jet streak. The present analysis permits a deeper understanding of the physical reasons leading to the occurrence of cyclone families over the North Atlantic, enabling a better estimation of the associated cumulative risk over Europe.

Preferred response of the East Asian summer monsoon to local and non-local anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions

In this study, the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art climate model (HadGEM2-ES) that includes earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols considering aerosol direct, indirect, and semi-direct effects, has been used to investigate the impacts of local and non-local emissions of anthropogenic sulphur dioxide on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The study focuses on the fast responses (including land surface feedbacks, but without sea surface temperature feedbacks) to sudden changes in emissions from Asia and Europe. The initial responses, over days 1–40, to Asian and European emissions show large differences. The response to Asian emissions involves a direct impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, with immediate consequences for the shortwave energy budget through aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions. These changes lead to cooling of East Asia and a weakening of the EASM. In contrast, European emissions have no significant impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, but they induce mid-tropospheric cooling and drying over the European sector. Subsequently, however, this cold and dry anomaly is advected into Asia, where it induces atmospheric and surface feedbacks over Asia and the Western North Pacific (WNP), which also weaken the EASM. In spite of very different perturbations to the local aerosol burden in response to Asian and European sulphur dioxide emissions, the large scale pattern of changes in land–sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation and local precipitation over East Asia from days 40 onward exhibits similar structures, indicating a preferred response, and suggesting that emissions from both regions likely contributed to the observed weakening of the EASM. Cooling and drying of the troposphere over Asia, together with warming and moistening over the WNP, reduces the land–sea thermal contrast between the Asian continent and surrounding oceans. This leads to high sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Asia and low SLP anomalies over the WNP, associated with a weakened EASM. In response to emissions from both regions warming and moistening over the WNP plays an important role and determines the time scale of the response.

Eventive and stative passives and copula selection in Canadian and American heritage speaker Spanish

Spanish captures the difference between eventive and stative passives via an obligatory choice between two copula; verbal passives take the copula ser and adjectival passives take the copula estar. In this study, we compare and contrast US and Canadian heritage speakers of Spanish on their knowledge of this difference in relation to copula choice in Spanish. The backgrounds of the target groups differ significantly from each other in that only one of them, the Canadian group, has grown up in a societal multilingual environment. We discuss the results as being supportive of two non-mutually exclusive explanation factors: (a) French facilitates (bootstraps) the acquisition of eventive and stative passives and/or (b) the US/Canadian HS differences (e.g. status of bilingualism and the languages at stake) is a reflection of the uniqueness of the language contact situations and the effects this has on the input HSS receive.

The drivers of corporate climate change strategies and public policy: a new resource-based view perspective

Effective public policy to mitigate climate change footprints should build on data-driven analysis of firm-level strategies. This article’s conceptual approach augments the resource-based view (RBV) of the firm and identifies investments in four firm-level resource domains (Governance, Information management, Systems, and Technology [GISTe]) to develop capabilities in climate change impact mitigation. The authors denote the resulting framework as the GISTe model, which frames their analysis and public policy recommendations. This research uses the 2008 Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) database, with high-quality information on firm-level climate change strategies for 552 companies from North America and Europe. In contrast to the widely accepted myth that European firms are performing better than North American ones, the authors find a different result. Many firms, whether European or North American, do not just “talk” about climate change impact mitigation, but actually do “walk the talk.” European firms appear to be better than their North American counterparts in “walk I,” denoting attention to governance, information management, and systems. But when it comes down to “walk II,” meaning actual Technology-related investments, North American firms’ performance is equal or superior to that of the European companies. The authors formulate public policy recommendations to accelerate firm-level, sector-level, and cluster-level implementation of climate change strategies.

Glacial lake drainage in Patagonia (13-8 kyr) and response of the adjacent Pacific Ocean

Large freshwater lakes formed in North America and Europe during deglaciation following the Last Glacial Maximum. Rapid drainage of these lakes into the Oceans resulted in abrupt perturbations in climate, including the Younger Dryas and 8.2 kyr cooling events. In the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere major glacial lakes also formed and drained during deglaciation but little is known about the magnitude, organization and timing of these drainage events and their e ect on regional climate. We use 16 new single-grain optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates to de ne three stages of rapid glacial lake drainage in the Lago General Carrera/Lago Buenos Aires and Lago Cohrane/ Pueyrredón basins of Patagonia and provide the rst assessment of the e ects of lake drainage on the Paci c Ocean. Lake drainage occurred between 13 and 8 kyr ago and was initially gradual eastward into the Atlantic, then subsequently reorganized westward into the Paci c as new drainage routes opened up during Patagonian Ice Sheet deglaciation. Coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments using HadCM3 with an imposed freshwater surface “hosing” to simulate glacial lake drainage suggest that a negative salinity anomaly was advected south around Cape Horn, resulting in brief but signi cant impacts on coastal ocean vertical mixing and regional climate.

QoS evaluation of bandwidth schedulersin IPTV networks offered SRD fluidvideo traffic: a simulation study

IPTV is now offered by several operators in Europe, US and Asia using broadcast video over private IP networks that are isolated from Internet. IPTV services rely ontransmission of live (real-time) video and/or stored video. Video on Demand (VoD)and Time-shifted TV are implemented by IP unicast and Broadcast TV (BTV) and Near video on demand are implemented by IP multicast. IPTV services require QoS guarantees and can tolerate no more than 10-6 packet loss probability, 200 ms delay, and 50 ms jitter. Low delay is essential for satisfactory trick mode performance(pause, resume,fast forward) for VoD, and fast channel change time for BTV. Internet Traffic Engineering (TE) is defined in RFC 3272 and involves both capacity management and traffic management. Capacity management includes capacityplanning, routing control, and resource management. Traffic management includes (1)nodal traffic control functions such as traffic conditioning, queue management, scheduling, and (2) other functions that regulate traffic flow through the network orthat arbitrate access to network resources. An IPTV network architecture includes multiple networks (core network, metronetwork, access network and home network) that connects devices (super head-end, video hub office, video serving office, home gateway, set-top box). Each IP router in the core and metro networks implements some queueing and packet scheduling mechanism at the output link controller. Popular schedulers in IP networks include Priority Queueing (PQ), Class-Based Weighted Fair Queueing (CBWFQ), and Low Latency Queueing (LLQ) which combines PQ and CBWFQ.The thesis analyzes several Packet Scheduling algorithms that can optimize the tradeoff between system capacity and end user performance for the traffic classes. Before in the simulator FIFO,PQ,GPS queueing methods were implemented inside. This thesis aims to implement the LLQ scheduler inside the simulator and to evaluate the performance of these packet schedulers. The simulator is provided by ErnstNordström and Simulator was built in Visual C++ 2008 environmentand tested and analyzed in MatLab 7.0 under windows VISTA.

'In Charge of the Truffula Seeds' : On Children's Literature, Rationality and Children's Voices in Philosophy

In this paper I investigate how philosophy can speak for children and how children can have a voice in philosophy and speak for philosophy. I argue that we should understand children as responsible rational individuals who are involved in their own philosophical inquiries and who can be involved in our own philosophical investigations-not because of their rational abilities, but because we acknowledge them as conversational partners, acknowledge their reasons as reasons, and speak for them as well as let them speak for us and our rational community. In order to argue this I turn, first, to Gareth Matthews' philosophy of childhood and suggest a reconstruction of some of his concepts in line with the philosophy of Stanley Cavell. Second, in order to examine more closely our conceptions of rationality and our pictures of children, I consider the children's books, The Lorax and Where is My Sister? and Henrik Ibsen's play, The Wild Duck.