Evolutionary model trees for handling continuous classes in machine learning

Model trees are a particular case of decision trees employed to solve regression problems. They have the advantage of presenting an interpretable output, helping the end-user to get more confidence in the prediction and providing the basis for the end-user to have new insight about the data, confirming or rejecting hypotheses previously formed. Moreover, model trees present an acceptable level of predictive performance in comparison to most techniques used for solving regression problems. Since generating the optimal model tree is an NP-Complete problem, traditional model tree induction algorithms make use of a greedy top-down divide-and-conquer strategy, which may not converge to the global optimal solution. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm based on the use of the evolutionary algorithms paradigm as an alternate heuristic to generate model trees in order to improve the convergence to globally near-optimal solutions. We call our new approach evolutionary model tree induction (E-Motion). We test its predictive performance using public UCI data sets, and we compare the results to traditional greedy regression/model trees induction algorithms, as well as to other evolutionary approaches. Results show that our method presents a good trade-off between predictive performance and model comprehensibility, which may be crucial in many machine learning applications. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Review about mites (Acari) of rubber trees (Hevea spp., Euphorbiaceae) in Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Water fluoridation in 40 Brazilian cities: 7 year analysis.

Fluoride levels in the public water supplies of 40 Brazilian cities were analyzed and classified on the basis of risk/benefit balance. Samples were collected monthly over a seven-year period from three sites for each water supply source. The samples were analyzed in duplicate in the laboratory of the Center for Research in Public Health - UNESP using an ion analyzer coupled to a fluoride-specific electrode. A total of 19,533 samples were analyzed, of which 18,847 were artificially fluoridated and 686 were not artificially fluoridated. In samples from cities performing water fluoridation, 51.57% (n=9,720) had fluoride levels in the range of 0.55 to 0.84 mg F/L; 30.53% (n=5,754) were below 0.55 mg F/L and 17.90% (n=3,373) were above 0.84 mg F/L (maximum concentration=6.96 mg F/L). Most of the cities performing fluoridation that had a majority of samples with fluoride levels above the recommended parameter had deep wells and more than one source of water supply. There was some variability in the fluoride levels of samples from the same site and between collection sites in the same city. The majority of samples from cities performing fluoridation had fluoride levels within the range that provides the best combination of risks and benefits, minimizing the risk of dental fluorosis while preventing dental caries. The conduction of studies about water distribution systems is suggested in cities with high natural fluoride concentrations in order to optimize the use of natural fluoride for fluoridation costs and avoid the risk of dental fluorosis.

Frequency of reported European ancestry among multiple sclerosis patients from four cities in the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil

Recent reports on the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) have described discrepancies between the rates in cities in the northeastern and southeastern regions of Brazil, representing a north-south gradient. European immigrants settled in southeastern and southern Brazil at the beginning of the twentieth century. In this study, we report the frequency of European ancestors among Brazilian MS patients in four cities in the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil. Methods: A total of 652 consecutive patients with confirmed MS diagnoses seen at four centers in Belo Horizonte, Ribeirão Preto, Londrina and Santos were asked about the origin of their ancestors, going back three generations. Results: 287 (44%) reported Italian ancestry, 211 (32%) reported that all ancestors were born in Brazil, 49 (7.5%) had Portuguese ancestry and 70 (10%) had Spanish ancestry. The patients in Belo Horizonte and Londrina reported higher proportions of Italian ancestry than the proportions estimated for the populations of their respective States. Conclusion: Brazil has a north-south gradient of 0.91/100,000 per degree of latitude, which is higher than the gradient for Latin America. Since the largest immigrant group that settled in southern and southeastern Brazil was from Italy, it is possible that Italian immigration was one of the factors that have contributed toward increasing the prevalence of MS in these regions. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using phenology to assess urban heat islands in tropical and temperate regions

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Water use of Juniperus virginiana trees encroached into mesic prairies in Oklahoma, USA

Juniperus virginiana (eastern redcedar) is encroaching into mesic prairies of the southern Great Plains, USA, and is altering the hydrologic cycle. We used the thermal dissipation technique to quantify daily water use of J. virginiana into a mesic prairie by measuring 19 trees of different sizes from different density stands located in north-central Oklahoma during 2011. We took the additional step to calibrate our measurements by comparing thermal dissipation technique estimates to volumetric water use for a subset of trees. Except for days with maximum air temperature below -3 degrees C, J. virginiana trees used water year round, reached a peak in late May, and exhibited reduced water use in summer when soil water availability was low. Overall daily average water use was 24 l (+/- 21.81 s.d.) per tree. Trees in low density stands used more water than trees with similar diameters from denser stands. However, there was no difference in water use between trees in different density stands when expressed on a canopy area basis. Approximately 50% of variation in water use that remained after accounting for the factors site, tree, and day was explained using a physiologically-based model that included daily potential evapotranspiration, maximum vapour pressure deficit, maximum temperature, solar radiation, and soil water storage between 0 and 10 cm. Our model suggested that a J. virginiana woodland with a closed canopy is capable of transpiring almost all precipitation reaching the soil in years with normal precipitation, indicating the potential for encroachment to reduce water yield for streamflow and groundwater recharge. Copyright (C) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A comparative analysis of caries and fluorosis among cities with and without public water supply fluoridation in São Paulo State, Brazil

Purpose: This population-based, cross-sectional study aimed to record the DMFT index for 12 year-old children with dental caries and fluorosis levels in cities with and without public water supply fluoridation. Methods: From the 101 municipalities belonging to the Health Regional Department XV (DRSXV-SJRP) of the São Paulo state in the Southeast region of Brazil, 85 cities were selected after exclusion of those with incomplete data and less than ten years of fluoridation treatment in 2004. The criteria adopted for the assessment of dental caries and fluorosis levels were based on the guidelines published in the WHO Manual 4th edition. The data were analyzed using Fisher’s exact tests at a significance level of 5%. Results: The prevalence of caries in 12 year-old children had no significant association with fluoridated water, and was considered “moderate” and “high” in cities without fluoridation and “low” and “moderate” in cities with fluoridation. A significant association was found between water fluoridation and fluorosis (P=0.001), but not between water fluoridation and the DMFT index (P=0.119). Conclusion: The prevalence of fluorosis was related to water fluoridation in this study. However, fluorosis was also observed in non-fluoridated cities, which may result from fluoride intake through other sources.

Parasitoids (Braconidae) associated with Anastrepha (Tephritidae) in host fruits on the Southern coast of Bahia, Brazil

Among the organisms acting in the natural biological control of tephritids, members of the family Braconidae are the most active form of natural parasite, and in Neotropical regions, members of Opiinae are the main control agents of Anastrepha. The objective of this work was to discover the percentage of parasitism and the species of braconid associated with fruit trees growing in cities on the southern coast of Bahia. During the period of August, 2005 to March, 2008, hosts fruits of fruit flies from several plant species were collected and from the fruits the following species of Anastrepha were obtained: A. fraterculus, A. obliqua, A. bahiensis, A. serpentina, A. sororcula and A. zenildae. Of the total of 838 specimens of braconids, 21.36% were of the species Utetes anastrephae (Viereck), obtained from yellow mombin, carambola, guava, mango and pitanga; 4.42% were of the species Asobara anastrephae (Muesebeck) obtained from the fruits of the yellow mombin, carambola and guava, and only one example of Opius bellus Gahan (0.12%) that came from a guava sample. The species Doryctobracon areolatus (Szepligeti) (74.10%) was predominant and emerged from puparia from all the host fruits collected, probably due to the greater efficiency of this species in locating tephritid larvae. The mean percentage of parasitism by Anastrepha spp. was 4.45%.

SEASONAL INCREMENT IN TRUNK DIAMETER OF Eucalyptus grandis TREES APPLYING DENDROMETER BANDS

The present work aimed to evaluate the seasonal increment in diameter of Eucalyptus grandis trees for 24 months and its relationship with the climatic variables and fertilization with nitrogen and with sewer mud. The trees were planted in the spacing of 3 x 2 m and fertilized with nitrogen (planting, 6, 12, 18 months) and sewer mud (planting and 8 months). 20 trees were selected by treatment according witch the distribution of basal area and installed dendrometer bands at a 1.3 meter. The results showed a clear effect of the climatic variables on the seasonal increment in diameter of trees, being observed a delay period (lag) of 28 days for the answer of the trees in relation to the climatic variables. Regading to the fertilization effect, it was observed that the increment of trunk diameter was higher in the eucalypt trees with organic in relation to mineral fertilization with nitrogen.

Root niche separation can explain avoidance of seasonal drought stress and vulnerability of overstory trees to extended drought in a mature Amazonian forest

Large areas of Amazonian evergreen forest experience seasonal droughts extending for three or more months, yet show maximum rates of photosynthesis and evapotranspiration during dry intervals. This apparent resilience is belied by disproportionate mortality of the large trees in manipulations that reduce wet season rainfall, occurring after 2-3 years of treatment. The goal of this study is to characterize the mechanisms that produce these contrasting ecosystem responses. A mechanistic model is developed based on the ecohydrological framework of TIN (Triangulated Irregular Network)-based Real Time Integrated Basin Simulator + Vegetation Generator for Interactive Evolution (tRIBS+VEGGIE). The model is used to test the roles of deep roots and soil capillary flux to provide water to the forest during the dry season. Also examined is the importance of "root niche separation," in which roots of overstory trees extend to depth, where during the dry season they use water stored from wet season precipitation, while roots of understory trees are concentrated in shallow layers that access dry season precipitation directly. Observational data from the Tapajo's National Forest, Brazil, were used as meteorological forcing and provided comprehensive observational constraints on the model. Results strongly suggest that deep roots with root niche separation adaptations explain both the observed resilience during seasonal drought and the vulnerability of canopy-dominant trees to extended deficits of wet season rainfall. These mechanisms appear to provide an adaptive strategy that enhances productivity of the largest trees in the face of their disproportionate heat loads and water demand in the dry season. A sensitivity analysis exploring how wet season rainfall affects the stability of the rainforest system is presented. Citation: Ivanov, V. Y., L. R. Hutyra, S. C. Wofsy, J. W. Munger, S. R. Saleska, R. C. de Oliveira Jr., and P. B. de Camargo (2012), Root niche separation can explain avoidance of seasonal drought stress and vulnerability of overstory trees to extended drought in a mature Amazonian forest, Water Resour. Res., 48, W12507, doi:10.1029/2012WR011972.

Retention of canopy trees as biological legacies for balancing woody biomass production and biodiversity in managed aspen forests of the Great Lakes Region

Green-tree retention under the conceptual framework of ecological forestry has the potential to provide both biomass feedstock for industry and maintain quality wildlife habitat. I examined the effects of retained canopy trees as biological legacies (“legacy trees”) in aspen (Populus spp.) forests on above-ground live woody biomass, understory plant floristic quality, and bird diversity. Additionally, I evaluated habitat quality for a high conservation priority species, the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera). I selected 27 aspen-dominated forest stands in northern Wisconsin with nine stands in each of three legacy tree retention treatments (conifer retention, hardwood retention, and clearcuts or no retention) across a chronosequence (4-36 years post-harvest). Conifer retention stands had greater legacy tree and all tree species biomass but lower regenerating tree biomass than clearcuts. Coniferous but not hardwood legacy trees appeared to suppress regenerating tree biomass. I evaluated the floristic quality of the understory plant assemblage by estimating the mean coefficient of conservatism (C). Mean C was lower in young stands than in middle-age or old stands; there was a marginally significant (p=0.058) interaction effect between legacy tree retention treatment and stand age. Late-seral plant species were positively associated with stand age and legacy tree diameter or age revealing an important relationship between legacy tree retention and stand development. Bird species richness was greatest in stands with hardwood retention particularly early in stand development. Six conservation priority bird species were indicators of legacy tree retention or clearcuts. Retention of legacy trees in aspen stands provided higher quality nest habitat for the Golden-winged Warbler than clearcuts based on high pairing success and nesting activity. Retention of hardwoods, particularly northern red oak (Quercus rubra), yielded the most consistent positive effects in this study with the highest bird species richness and the highest quality habitat for the Golden-winged Warbler. This treatment maintained stand biomass comparable to clearcuts and did not suppress regenerating tree biomass. In conclusion, legacy tree retention can enhance even-aged management techniques to produce a win-win scenario for the conservation of declining bird species and late-seral understory plants and for production of woody biomass feedstock from naturally regenerating aspen forests.

Hypoglycin A concentrations in seeds of Acer pseudoplatanus trees growing on atypical myopathy-affected and control pastures.

BACKGROUND Hypoglycin A, found in seeds of Acer negundo, appears to cause seasonal pasture myopathy (SPM) in North America and is implicated in atypical myopathy (AM) in Europe. Acer negundo is uncommon in Europe. Thus, the potential source of hypoglycin A in Europe is unknown. HYPOTHESIS AND OBJECTIVES We hypothesized that seeds of Acer pseudoplatanus were the source of hypoglycin A in Europe. Our objective was to determine the concentration of hypoglycin A in seeds of A. pseudoplatanus trees located in pastures where previous cases of AM had occurred. ANIMALS None. METHODS University of Berne records were searched to retrospectively identify 6 farms with 10 AM cases and 11 suspected AM deaths between 2007 and 2011. During October 2012, A. pseudoplatanus seeds were collected from 2 to 6 trees per pasture on 6 AM farms (7 pastures) from trees in or close to 2 pastures on 2 control farms where AM had not been previously reported. Hypoglycin A in seeds was analyzed by GC-MS. RESULTS Acer pseudoplatanus trees were identified on all AM pastures. Hypoglycin A was detected in all A. pseudoplatanus seeds in highly variable concentrations ranging from 0.04 to 2.81 μg/mg (mean 0.69) on AM farms and 0.10 to 9.12 μg/mg (mean 1.59) on control farms. CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE Preventing horses from grazing pastures containing A. pseudoplatanus seeds during late fall and early spring might be the best means to prevent AM.

Litter nutrients and retranslocation in a central African rain forest dominated by ectomycorrhizal trees

In the strongly seasonal, but annually very wet, parts of the tropics, low-water availability in the short dry season leads to a semi-deciduous forest, one which is also highly susceptible to nutrient loss from leaching in the long wet season. Patterns in litterfall were compared between forest with low (LEM) and high (HEM) abundances of ectomycorrhizal trees in Korup National Park, Cameroon, over 26 months in 1990–92. Leaf litter was sorted into 26 abundant species which included six ectomycorrhizal species, and of these three were the large grove-forming trees Microberlinia bisulcata, Tetraberlinia bifoliolata and Tetraberlinia moreliana. Larger-tree species shed their leaves with pronounced peaks in the dry season, whereas other species had either weaker dependence, showed several peaks per year, or were wet-season shedders. Although total annual litterfall differed little between forest types, in the HEM forest (dominated by M. bisulcata) the dry-season peak was more pronounced and earlier than that in the LEMforest. Species differed greatly in their mean leaf litterfall nutrient concentrations, with an approx. twofold range for nitrogen and phosphorus, and 2.5–3.5-fold for potassium, magnesium and calcium. In the dry season, LEM and HEM litter showed similar declines in P and N concentration, and increases in K and Mg; some species, especially M. bisculcata, showed strong dry-wet season differences. The concentration of P (but not N) was higher in the leaf litter of ectomycorrhizal than nonectomycorrhizal species. Retranslocation of N and P was lower among the ectomycorrhizal than nonectomycorrhizal species by approx. twofold. It is suggested that, within ectomycorrhizal groves on this soil low in P, a fast decomposition rate with minimal loss of mineralized P is possible due to the relatively high litter P not limiting the cycle at this stage, combined with an efficient recapture of released P by the surface organic layer of ectomycorrhizas and fine roots. This points to a feedback between two essential controlling steps (retranslocation and mineralization) in a tropical rain forest ecosystem dominated by ectomycorrhizal trees.

Benthic and substrate cover data derived from photo-transect surveys in Heron Reef

Underwater georeferenced photo-transect survey was conducted on September 23 - 27, 2007 at different sections of the reef flat, reef crest and reef slope in Heron Reef. For this survey a snorkeler or diver swam over the bottom while taking photos of the benthos at a set height using a standard digital camera and towing a surface float GPS which was logging its track every five seconds. A standard digital compact camera was placed in an underwater housing and fitted with a 16 mm lens which provided a 1.0 m x 1.0 m footprint, at 0.5 m height above the benthos. Horizontal distance between photos was estimated by three fin kicks of the survey diver/snorkeler, which corresponded to a surface distance of approximately 2.0 - 4.0 m. The GPS was placed in a dry-bag and logged its position as it floated at the surface while being towed by the photographer. A total of 3,586 benthic photos were taken. A floating GPS setup connected to the swimmer/diver by a line enabled recording of coordinates of each benthic. Approximation of coordinates of each benthic photo was done based on the photo timestamp and GPS coordinate time stamp, using GPS Photo Link Software (www.geospatialexperts.com). Coordinates of each photo were interpolated by finding the gps coordinates that were logged at a set time before and after the photo was captured. Benthic or substrate cover data was derived from each photo by randomly placing 24 points over each image using the Coral Point Count excel program (Kohler and Gill, 2006). Each point was then assigned to 1 out of 80 cover types, which represented the benthic feature beneath it. Benthic cover composition summary of each photo scores was generated automatically using CPCE program. The resulting benthic cover data of each photo was linked to gps coordinates, saved as an ArcMap point shapefile, and projected to Universal Transverse Mercator WGS84 Zone 56 South.