A balance of questions: what can we ask of climate change economics?

The standard approach to the economics of climate change, which has its best known implementation in Nordhaus's DICE and RICE models (well described in Nordhaus's 2008 book, A Question of Balance) is not well equipped to deal with the possibility of catastrophe, since we are unable to evaluate a risk averse representative agent's expected utility when there is any signi cant probability of zero consumption. Whilst other authors attempt to develop new tools with which to address these problems, the simple solution proposed in this paper is to ask a question that the currently available tools of climate change economics are capable of answering. Rather than having agents optimally choosing a path (that differs from the recommendations of climate scientists) within models which cannot capture the essential features of the problem, I argue that economic models should be used to determine the savings and investment paths which implement climate targets that have been suggested in the physical science literature.

The Impacts of Temporary and Anticipated Tourism Spending.

Part of the local economic impact of a major sporting event comes from the associated temporary tourism expenditures. Typically demand-driven Input-Output (IO) methods are used to quantify the impacts of such expenditures. However, IO modelling has specific weaknesses when measuring temporary tourism impacts; particular problems lie in its treatment of factor supplies and its lack of dynamics. Recent work argues that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis is more appropriate and this has been widely applied. Neglected in this literature however is an understanding of the role that behavioural characteristics and factor supply assumptions play in determining the economic impact of tourist expenditures, particularly where expenditures are temporary (i.e. of limited duration) and anticipated (i.e. known in advance). This paper uses a CGE model for Scotland in which agents can have myopic- or forward-looking behaviours and shows how these alternative specifications affect the timing and scale of the economic impacts from anticipated and temporary tourism expenditure. The tourism shock analysed is of a scale expected for the Commonwealth Games to be held in Glasgow in 2014. The model shows how “pre-shock” and “legacy” effects – impacts before and after the shock – arise and their quantitative importance. Using the forward-looking model the paper calculates the optimal degree of pre-announcement.

The Commons and anti-commons problems in the tourism economy

Countries specialised in tourism tend to face two problems with contradictory effects: the commons and the anti-commons, which lead to tourism over- and under-production, respectively. This paper develops a two-period model to analyse the joint effects of both problems on a small and remote tourism economy. Congestion and the complementariness between foreign transport and local tourism services are key features in this type of markets. As a result, direct selling and the presence of foreign tour-operators emerge as possible market arrangements with different implications in terms of welfare and public intervention. Four main results are obtained. First, in the direct selling situation the optimal policy depends on the relative importance of the problems. Second, the existence of tour-operators always leads to tourism over-production. Third, the presence of a single tour-operator does not solve the congestion problem. Lastly, the switch from several tour-operators to a single one is welfare reducing.

A critical analysis of dimensions and curve fitting practice in economics

When dealing with sustainability we are concerned with the biophysical as well as the monetary aspects of economic and ecological interactions. This multidimensional approach requires that special attention is given to dimensional issues in relation to curve fitting practice in economics. Unfortunately, many empirical and theoretical studies in economics, as well as in ecological economics, apply dimensional numbers in exponential or logarithmic functions. We show that it is an analytical error to put a dimensional unit x into exponential functions ( a x ) and logarithmic functions ( x a log ). Secondly, we investigate the conditions of data sets under which a particular logarithmic specification is superior to the usual regression specification. This analysis shows that logarithmic specification superiority in terms of least square norm is heavily dependent on the available data set. The last section deals with economists’ “curve fitting fetishism”. We propose that a distinction be made between curve fitting over past observations and the development of a theoretical or empirical law capable of maintaining its fitting power for any future observations. Finally we conclude this paper with several epistemological issues in relation to dimensions and curve fitting practice in economics

Deliberative ecological economics: emergence and research issues

We discuss the recent emergence of "deliberative ecological economics", a field that highlights the potential of deliberation for improving environmental governance. We locate the emergence of this literature in the long concern in ecological economics over the policy implications of limited views of human action and its encounter with deliberative democracy scholarship and the model of communicative rationality as an alternative to utilitarianism. Considering criticisms over methods used and the focus of research in deliberative decision-making, we put forward a research agenda for deliberative ecological economics. Given the promising potential of deliberative processes for improving the effectiveness and legitimacy of environmental decision-making, work in this area could help advance both theory and practice in environmental governance.

Anàlisi dels fluxos d'aigua, energia i mobilitat a cinc nuclis turístics de Menorca

Menorca és una illa del Mediterrani occidental i una important destinació turística. El turisme estival és un pilar de l’economia de l’illa i té implicacions en tots els aspectes d’aquesta. Una bona part dels turistes es concentren en nuclis turístics costaners dedicats a una única activitat (l’allotjament de turistes). En aquest projecte s’estudien els consums i els potencials de captació d’aigua i energia de cinc nuclis turístics menorquins i alguns dels seus establiments turístics i se n’avalua el potencial d’autosuficiència. També es fa un estudi de mobilitat dels turistes, a partir del qual es quantifica el cost energètic de la mobilitat i les emissions de CO2 que se’n deriven. Les eines utilitzades han estat enquestes i Sistemes d’Informació Geogràfica. Els resultats mostren que el consum hídric per persona és molt variable (de 98 a 466 litres diaris). El consum elèctric per persona és més homogeni que el d’aigua (entre 5 i 10 kWh·persona-1·dia-1 a nivell de nucli turístic) i presenta valors superiors en allotjaments del tipus hotel que del tipus apartaments. Els trajectes d’anada i tornada a l’illa amb avió o vaixell representen més del 80% del cost energètic total de les vacances a Menorca (aprox. 1 MWh per estada) i de les emissions de CO2 associades. Els turistes espanyols recorren un 180% més de distància en desplaçaments a l’interior de l’illa que els d’altres nacionalitats. L’aprofitament d’aigües pluvials podria cobrir menys del 25% de les necessitats hídriques de la majoria d’allotjaments turístics i entre el 28 i el 36% de les necessitats hídriques totals dels nuclis turístics, mantenint-se els nivells actuals de consum. La captació d’energia solar fotovoltaica in situ podria arribar a suplir entre el 50 i el 90% del consum d’energia elèctrica en els nuclis turístics i fins al 100% del mateix en alguns allotjaments turístics.

Reconsideration of dimensions and curve fitting practice in economics ellaborating on Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology

This paper is to examine the proper use of dimensions and curve fitting practices elaborating on Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology in relation to the three main concerns of his epistemological orientation. Section 2 introduces two critical issues in relation to dimensions and curve fitting practices in economics in view of Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology. Section 3 deals with the logarithmic function (ln z) and shows that z must be a dimensionless pure number, otherwise it is nonsensical. Several unfortunate examples of this analytical error are presented including macroeconomic data analysis conducted by a representative figure in this field. Section 4 deals with the standard Cobb-Douglas function. It is shown that the operational meaning cannot be obtained for capital or labor within the Cobb-Douglas function. Section 4 also deals with economists "curve fitting fetishism". Section 5 concludes thispaper with several epistemological issues in relation to dimensions and curve fitting practices in economics.

A Health Economics Model. The cost benefits of the Physical Activity Strategy for Northern Ireland - a summary of key findings

This summary report follows on from the publication of the Northern Ireland physical activity strategy in 1996 and the subsequent publication of the strategy action plan in 1998. Within this strategy action plan a recommendation was made for the health sector, that research should be carried out to evaluate and compare the cost of investing in physical activity programmes against the cost of treating preventable illness. To help in the development of this key area, the Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety's Economics Branch agreed to develop a model that would seek to establish the extent of avoidable deaths from physical inactivity and, as a consequence, the avoidable economic and healthcare costs for Northern Ireland.

Acute schistosomiasis outbreak in the metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais: alert about the risk of unnoticed transmission increased by growing rural tourism

The present article describes the occurrence of 17 cases of acute schistosomiasis in the metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. All individuals affected took a bath in a swimming pool of a holiday resort that was provided with water from a nearby brook. The apparently clean water and the absence of snails in the pool gave the wrong impression that there was no risk for infection. During a malacological survey at the site snails of the species Biomphalaria glabrata were found and tested positive for Schistosoma mansoni. All the patients live in the middle-class area of Barreiro, metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte and have medium grade school education. The difficulties in establishing the right diagnosis is expressed by the search for medical attention in 17 different medical facilities, the wide range of laboratory test and the inadequate treatment administration. A lack of knowledge about the disease was found in all groups studied. The booming rural tourism in endemic areas is identified as a probable risk factor for infection, especially for individuals of the non-immune middle and upper class parts of the society in urban centers. Special attention is given to a multidisciplinary approach to the complex issue of disease control and prevention.

Understanding the Economics of Investments in the Social Determinants of Health

Briefing 9 - Understanding the economics of investments in the social determinants of health This document, commissioned by Public Health England, and written by the UCL Institute of Health Equity, examines how to use measures of economic investment to improve and increase local investment in the social determinants of health. The paper provides information to support decision-making on actions to address the social determinants of health and the development of business cases for investment. It supplements the evidence reviews in this series, which include information on the economic impacts of actions on health inequalities, and should help the reader to be an intelligent customer and commissioner of economic analyses and to understand their limitations. The paper covers: - The rationale for understanding, measuring and taking into account the economic impact of decisions and interventions that impact on the social determinants of health.- The benefits and limitations of various ‘economic measures of impact’ – commonly used terms which can be confusing, sometimes leading to misinterpretation of which measure of economic impact is appropriate for what purpose.- What is currently known about the economic impact of intervening in the social determinants of health.- Good practice and further resources which will support better decisions. The briefing is available to download above. This document is part of a series. An overview document which provides an introduction to this and other documents in the series, and links to the other topic areas, is available on the ‘Local Action on health inequalities’ project page. A video of Michael Marmot introducing the work is also available on our videos page.

Rural tourism as risk factor for the transmission of schistosomiasis in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Recently, the booming rural tourism in endemic areas of the state of Minas Gerais was identified as a contributing factor in the dissemination of the infection with Schistosoma mansoni. This article presents data from six holiday resorts in a rural district approximately 100 km distant from Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil, where a possibly new and until now unperceived way of transmission was observed. The infection takes place in swimming pools and little ponds, which are offered to tourists and the local population for fishing and leisure activities. The health authorities of the district reported cases of schistosomiasis among the local population after visiting these sites. As individuals of the non-immune middle class parts of the society of big urban centers also frequent these resorts, infection of these persons cannot be excluded. A malacological survey revealed the presence of molluscs of the species Biomphalaria glabrata and Biomphalaria straminea at the resorts. The snails (B. glabrata) of one resort tested positive for S. mansoni. In order to resolve this complex problem a multidisciplinary approach including health education, sanitation measures, assistance to the local health services, and evolvement of the local political authorities, the local community, the tourism association, and the owners of the leisure resorts is necessary. This evidence emphasizes the urgent need for a participative strategic plan to develop the local tourism in an organized and well-administered way. Only so this important source of income for the region can be ensured on the long term without disseminating the disease and putting the health of the visitors at risk.