Statistical modelling and power analysis for detecting trends in total suspended sediment loads

The export of sediments from coastal catchments can have detrimental impacts on estuaries and near shore reef ecosystems such as the Great Barrier Reef. Catchment management approaches aimed at reducing sediment loads require monitoring to evaluate their effectiveness in reducing loads over time. However, load estimation is not a trivial task due to the complex behaviour of constituents in natural streams, the variability of water flows and often a limited amount of data. Regression is commonly used for load estimation and provides a fundamental tool for trend estimation by standardising the other time specific covariates such as flow. This study investigates whether load estimates and resultant power to detect trends can be enhanced by (i) modelling the error structure so that temporal correlation can be better quantified, (ii) making use of predictive variables, and (iii) by identifying an efficient and feasible sampling strategy that may be used to reduce sampling error. To achieve this, we propose a new regression model that includes an innovative compounding errors model structure and uses two additional predictive variables (average discounted flow and turbidity). By combining this modelling approach with a new, regularly optimised, sampling strategy, which adds uniformity to the event sampling strategy, the predictive power was increased to 90%. Using the enhanced regression model proposed here, it was possible to detect a trend of 20% over 20 years. This result is in stark contrast to previous conclusions presented in the literature. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Total body potassium in cystic fibrosis

To further evaluate the nature of malnutrition, define at-risk groups, and confirm the efficacy of nutritional supplementation on body composition in cystic fibrosis (CF), we have conducted longitudinal and cross-sectional studies of total body potassium (TBK) in 161 unselected CF subjects aged 1 month to 17 years. TBK was determined by measurement of40K in a whole body counter, reflecting body cell mass (BCM), the vital work-performing and growing cellular component of the body. Compared with normal TBK data for age and sex from pooled measurements of 1,629 healthy children aged 1 week to 17 years, CF infants (n = 12) diagnosed by newborn screening were depleted in TBK at diagnosis and showed catch-up with therapy by 1 year; CF children aged 2-17 years (n = 140) showed a tendency for inadequate accretion of TBK (and thus BCM) with increasing age, although the normal correlation between TBK and weight and height was maintained in the majority suggesting a pattern of nutritional stunting of growth; and malnourished CF children (n = 9) showed significant catchup in TBK with long-term nutritional rehabilitation (85-98% of TBK predicted for weight and height). These studies suggest that potentially serious, but possibly correctable deficits, in the growth of the body cell mass as measured by TBK occur commonly in CF. These deficits may be established very early in life and if not corrected lead to progressive nutritional growth retardation with increasing age. © 1989 Raven Press, Ltd., New York.

Recruitment and loss of juvenile stages of Helicoverpa spp. (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on contaminant plants in chickpea crops

The hypothesis that contaminant plants growing amongst chickpea serve as Helicoverpa sinks by diverting oviposition pressure away from the main crop was tested under field conditions. Gain (recruitment) and loss (presumed mortality) of juvenile stages of Helicoverpa spp. on contaminant faba bean and wheat plants growing in chickpea plots were quantified on a daily basis over a 12-d period. The possibility of posteclosion movement of larvae from the contaminants to the surrounding chickpea crop was examined. Estimated total loss of the census population varied from 80 to 84% across plots and rows. The loss of brown eggs (40–47%) contributed most to the overall loss estimate, followed by loss of white eggs (27–35%) and larvae (6–9%). The cumulative number of individuals entering the white and brown egg and larval stages over the census period ranged from 15 to 58, 10–48 and 1–6 per m row, respectively. The corresponding estimates of mean stage-specific loss, expressed as a percentage of individuals entering the stage, ranged from 52 to 57% for white eggs, 87–108% for brown eggs and 71–87% for first-instar larvae. Mean larval density on chickpea plants in close proximity to the contaminant plants did not exceed the baseline larval density on chickpea further away from the contaminants across rows and plots. The results support the hypothesis that contaminant plants in chickpea plots serve as Helicoverpa sinks by diverting egg pressure from the main crop and elevating mortality of juvenile stages. Deliberate contamination of chickpea crops with other plant species merits further investigation as a cultural pest management strategy for Helicoverpa spp.

Cross-protection study of the nine serovars of Haemophilus paragallinarum in the Kume haemagglutinin scheme

The cross-protection and haemagglutination-inhibition antibodies present in chickens vaccinated with one of the nine currently recognized Kume haemagglutinin serovars of Haemophilus paragallinarum were investigated. The results confirmed the widely accepted dogma that serogroups A, B, and C represent three distinct immunovars. Within Kume serogroup A, there was generally good cross-protection among all four serovars. However, within Kume serogroup C, there was evidence of a reduced level of cross protection between some of the four serovars. The haemagglutination-inhibition antibody levels generally showed the same trend as with the cross-protection results. This study suggests that some apparent field failures of infectious coryza vaccines may be due to a lack of cross-protection between the vaccine strains and the field strains. Our results will help guide the selection of strains for inclusion in infectious coryza vaccines.

Quantitative assessment of total and Gram-positive aerobic bacteria in fresh and ambient-temperature-stored sub-tropical marine fish

The current study was undertaken to enumerate Gram-positive bacteria in fresh sub-tropical marine fish and determine the effect of ambient storage (25°C) on the Gram-positive bacterial count. Total and Gram-positive bacteria were enumerated in the muscles, gills and gut of fresh and stored Pseudocaranx dentex, Pagrus auratus and Mugil cephalus on tryptone soya agar (TSA) and TSA with 0.25% phenylethyl alcohol (PEA), respectively. Initial studies indicated that PEA significantly reduced total aerobic bacterial count (TABC) whereas control Gram-positive bacteria were not affected by 0.25% PEA. TABC significantly increased in all fish body parts, whereas Gram-positive aerobic bacterial count (GABC) significantly increased only in the muscles and gills during ambient storage for 15 h. The TABC of the fish species increased from 4.00, 6.13 and 4.58 log cfu g-1, respectively in the muscles, gills, and gut to 6.31, 7.31 and 7.23 log cfu g-1 by the end of storage. GABC increased from 2.00, 3.52 and 2.20 log cfu g-1 to 4.70, 5.85 and 3.36 log cfu g-1. Within each species, TABC were significantly higher in the gills compared to that of muscles and gut; however, no significant differences were found in GABC between muscles and gills. This study demonstrated the potential importance of Gram-positive bacteria in sub-tropical marine fish and their spoilage.

An avidin-biotin microELISA for rapid measurement of total and allergen-specific human IgE

his paper describes an improved microtiter solid-phase enzyme immunoassay for the determination of total and allergen-specific human IgE. This assay technique is unique in its use of the avidin-biotin interaction to increase sensitivity. The avidin-biotin microtiter enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay (AB-microELISA) was performed in polyvinyl chloride microtiter plates using biotinylated anti-IgE and horseradish peroxidase (HRP)-avidin conjugate. This AB-microELISA technique enabled the quantitation of human serum IgE in the range of 0.1–5 ng/ml (10–500 pg/test) in less than 3 h. Total serum IgE, whether measured by the AB-microELISA or the paper radioimmunosorbant test (PRIST) was similar (correlation coefficient, r = 0.92). Further, the presence or absence of positive skin tests to 7 specific allergens determined in serum donors generally agreed with the presence or absence of allergen-specific IgE in their sera as measured by the AB-microELISA. The quantity of short ragweed allergen-specific IgE as determined by the AB-microELISA agreed with values obtained by the radioimmunosorbant test (RAST) (correlation coefficient, r = 0.89). No significant interference by ragweed-specific IgG (blocking antibody) was observed in the quantitation of allergen-specific IgE. The AB-microELISA is not only rapid and inexpensive, but also more sensitive than other published ELISA procedures and comparable to solid-phase radioimmunoassays in the quantitation of total and allergen-specific IgE.

Achievements in forest tree improvement in Australia and New Zealand 6: Genetic improvement and conservation of Araucaria cunninghamii in Queensland

Araucaria cunninghamii (hoop pine) typically occurs as an emergent tree over subtropical and tropical rainforests, in a discontinuous distribution that extends from West Irian Jaya at about 0°30'S, through the highlands of Indonesian New Guinea and Papua New Guinea, along the east coast of Australia from 11°39'S in Queensland to 30°35'S in northern New South Wales. Plantations established in Queensland since the 1920s now total about 44000 ha, and constitute the primary source for the continuing supply of hoop pine quality timber and pulpwood, with a sustainable harvest exceeding 440 000 m3 y-1. Establishment of these managed plantations allowed logging of all native forests of Araucaria species (hoop pine and bunya pine, A. bidwillii) on state-owned lands to cease in the late 1980s, and the preservation of large areas of araucarian forest types within a system of state-owned and managed reserves. The successful plantation program with this species has been strongly supported by genetic improvement activities since the late 1940s - through knowledge of provenance variation and reproductive biology, the provision of reliable sources of improved seed, and the capture of substantial genetic gains in traits of economic importance (for example growth, stem straightness, internode length and spiral grain). As such, hoop pine is one of the few tropical tree species that, for more than half a century, has been the subject of continuous genetic improvement. The history of commercialisation and genetic improvement of hoop pine provides an excellent example of the dual economic and conservation benefits that may be obtained in tropical tree species through the integration of gene conservation and genetic improvement with commercial plantation development. This paper outlines the natural distribution and reproductive biology of hoop pine, describes the major achievements of the genetic improvement program in Queensland over the past 50+ y, summarises current understanding of the genetic variation and control of key selection traits, and outlines the means by which genetic diversity in the species is being conserved.

Borate protection of softwood from Coptotermes acinaciformis (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) damage: Variation in protection thresholds explained

Laboratory and field data reported in the literature are confusing with regard to “adequate” protection thresholds for borate timber preservatives. The confusion is compounded by differences in termite species, timber species and test methodology. Laboratory data indicate a borate retention of 0.5% mass/mass (m/m) boric acid equivalent (BAE) would cause >90% termite mortality and restrict mass loss in test specimens to ≤5%. Field data generally suggest that borate retentions appreciably >0.5% m/m BAE are required. We report two field experiments with varying amounts of untreated feeder material in which Coptotermes acinaciformis (Froggatt) (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) responses to borate-treated radiata (Monterey) pine, Pinus radiata D. Don, were measured. The apparently conflicting results between laboratory and field data are explained by the presence or absence of untreated feeder material in the test environment. In the absence of untreated feeder material, wood containing 0.5% BAE provided adequate protection from Coptotermes sp., whereas in the presence of untreated feeder material, increased retentions were required. Furthermore, the retentions required increased with increased amounts of susceptible material present. Some termites, Nasutitermes sp. and Mastotermes darwiniensis Froggatt, for example, are borate-tolerant and borate timber preservatives are not a viable management option with these species. The lack of uniform standards for termite test methodology and assessment criteria for efficacy across the world is recognized as a difficulty with research into the performance of timber preservatives with termites. The many variables in laboratory and field assays make “prescriptive” standards difficult to recommend. The use of “performance” standards to define efficacy criteria (“adequate” protection) is discussed.

Influence of food supplementation on the fitness of two biological control agents: a predatory nabid bug and a bollworm pupal parasitoid

Many arthropod predators and parasitoids exhibit either stage-specific or lifetime omnivory, in that they include extra-floral nectar, floral nectar, honeydew or pollen in their immature and/or adult diet. Access to these plant-derived foods can enhance pest suppression by increasing both the individual fitness and local density of natural enemies. Commercial products such as Amino-Feed®, Envirofeast®, and Pred-Feed® can be applied to crops to act as artificial-plant-derived foods. In laboratory and glasshouse experiments we examined the influence of carbohydrate and protein rich Amino-Feed UV® or Amino-Feed, respectively, on the fitness of a predatory nabid bug Nabis kinbergii Reuter (Hemiptera: Nabidae) and bollworm pupal parasitoid Ichneumon promissorius (Erichson) (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae). Under the chosen conditions, the provision of either wet or dry residues of Amino-Feed UV had no discernable effect on immediate or longer-term survival and immature development times of N. kinbergii. In contrast, the provision of honey, Amino-Feed plus extrafloral nectar, and extrafloral nectar alone had a marked effect on the longevity of I. promissorius, indicating that they were limited by at least carbohydrates as an energy source, but probably not protein. Compared with a water only diet, the provision of Amino-Feed plus extrafloral nectar increased the longevity of males and females of I. promissorius by 3.0- and 2.4-fold, respectively. Not only did female parasitoids live longer when provided food, but the total number of eggs laid and timing of deposition was affected by diet under the chosen conditions. Notably, females in the water and honey treatments deposited greater numbers of eggs earlier in the trial, but this trend was unable to be sustained over their lifetime. Egg numbers in these treatments subsequently fell below the levels achieved by females in the Amino-Feed plus extrafloral nectar and cotton extrafloral nectar only treatments. Furthermore, there were times when the inclusion of the Amino-Feed was beneficial compared with cotton extrafloral nectar only. Artificial food supplements and plant-derived foods are worthy of further investigation because they have potential to improve the ecosystem service of biological pest control in targeted agroecosystems by providing natural enemies with an alternative source of nutrition, particularly during periods of prey/host scarcity.

Quantitative assessment of total phenol contents of European oak (Quercus petraea and Quercus robur) by diffuse reflectance NIR spectroscopy on solid wood surfaces

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) combined with multivariate analysis techniques was applied to assess phenol content of European oak. NIRS data were firstly collected directly from solid heartwood surfaces: in doing so, the spectra were recorded separately from the longitudinal radial and the transverse section surfaces by diffuse reflectance. The spectral data were then pretreated by several pre-processing procedures, such as multiplicative scatter correction, first derivative, second derivative and standard normal variate. The tannin contents of sawmill collected from the longitudinal radial and transverse section surfaces were determined by quantitative extraction with water/methanol (1:4, by vol). Then, total phenol contents in tannin extracts were measured by the Folin-Ciocalteu method. The NIR data were correlated against the Folin-Ciocalteu results. Calibration models built with partial least squares regression displayed strong correlation - as expressed by high determination correlation coefficient (r2) and high ratio of performance to deviation (RPD) - between measured and predicted total phenols content, and weak calibration and prediction errors (RMSEC, RMSEP). The best calibration was provided with second derivative spectra (r2 value of 0.93 for the longitudinal radial plane and of 0.91 for the transverse section plane). This study illustrates that the NIRS technique when used in conjunction with multivariate analysis could provide reliable, quick and non-destructive assessment of European oak heartwood extractives.

NIR model development and robustness in prediction of melon fruit total soluble solids

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) can be used for the on-line, non-invasive assessment of fruit for eating quality attributes such as total soluble solids (TSS). The robustness of multivariate calibration models, based on NIRS in a partial transmittance optical geometry, for the assessment of TSS of intact rockmelons (Cucumis melo) was assessed. The mesocarp TSS was highest around the fruit equator and increased towards the seed cavity. Inner mesocarp TSS levels decreased towards both the proximal and distal ends of the fruit, but more so towards the proximal end. The equatorial region of the fruit was chosen as representative of the fruit for near infrared assessment of TSS. The spectral window for model development was optimised at 695-1045 nm, and the data pre-treatment procedure was optimised to second-derivative absorbance without scatter correction. The 'global' modified partial least squares (MPLS) regression modelling procedure of WINISI (ver. 1.04) was found to be superior with respect to root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) and bias for model predictions of TSS across seasons, compared with the 'local' MPLS regression procedure. Updating of the model with samples selected randomly from the independent validation population demonstrated improvement in both RMSEP and bias with addition of approximately 15 samples.

Parallel processor scheduling for minimizing total weighted tardiness using ant colony optimization

In the modern business environment, meeting due dates and avoiding delay penalties are very important goals that can be accomplished by minimizing total weighted tardiness. We consider a scheduling problem in a system of parallel processors with the objective of minimizing total weighted tardiness. Our aim in the present work is to develop an efficient algorithm for solving the parallel processor problem as compared to the available heuristics in the literature and we propose the ant colony optimization approach for this problem. An extensive experimentation is conducted to evaluate the performance of the ACO approach on different problem sizes with the varied tardiness factors. Our experimentation shows that the proposed ant colony optimization algorithm is giving promising results compared to the best of the available heuristics.