Assessing the sources and magnitude of diurnal nitrate variability in the San Joaquin River (California) with an in-situ optical nitrate sensor and dual nitrate isotopes

We investigated diurnal nitrate (NO3-) concentration variability in the San Joaquin River using an in situ optical NO3- sensor and discrete sampling during a 5-day summer period characterized by high algal productivity. Dual NO3- isotopes (delta N-15(NO3) and delta O-18(NO3)) and dissolved oxygen isotopes (delta O-18(DO)) were measured over 2 days to assess NO3- sources and biogeochemical controls over diurnal time-scales. Concerted temporal patterns of dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations and delta O-18(DO) were consistent with photosynthesis, respiration and atmospheric O-2 exchange, providing evidence of diurnal biological processes independent of river discharge. Surface water NO3- concentrations varied by up to 22% over a single diurnal cycle and up to 31% over the 5-day study, but did not reveal concerted diurnal patterns at a frequency comparable to DO concentrations. The decoupling of delta N-15(NO3) and delta O-18(NO3) isotopes suggests that algal assimilation and denitrification are not major processes controlling diurnal NO3- variability in the San Joaquin River during the study. The lack of a clear explanation for NO3- variability likely reflects a combination of riverine biological processes and time-varying physical transport of NO3- from upstream agricultural drains to the mainstem San Joaquin River. The application of an in situ optical NO3- sensor along with discrete samples provides a view into the fine temporal structure of hydrochemical data and may allow for greater accuracy in pollution assessment.

Stratospheric temperature trends: impact of ozone variability and the QBO

In most climate simulations used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 fourth assessment report, stratospheric processes are only poorly represented. For example, climatological or simple specifications of time-varying ozone concentrations are imposed and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric zonal wind is absent. Here we investigate the impact of an improved stratospheric representation using two sets of perturbed simulations with the Hadley Centre coupled ocean atmosphere model HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the 1979–2003 period. In the first set of simulations, the usual zonal mean ozone climatology with superimposed trends is replaced with a time series of observed zonal mean ozone distributions that includes interannual variability associated with the solar cycle, QBO and volcanic eruptions. In addition to this, the second set of perturbed simulations includes a scheme in which the stratospheric zonal wind in the tropics is relaxed to appropriate zonal mean values obtained from the ERA-40 re-analysis, thus forcing a QBO. Both of these changes are applied strictly to the stratosphere only. The improved ozone field results in an improved simulation of the stepwise temperature transitions observed in the lower stratosphere in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions. The contribution of the solar cycle signal in the ozone field to this improved representation of the stepwise cooling is discussed. The improved ozone field and also the QBO result in an improved simulation of observed trends, both globally and at tropical latitudes. The Eulerian upwelling in the lower stratosphere in the equatorial region is enhanced by the improved ozone field and is affected by the QBO relaxation, yet neither induces a significant change in the upwelling trend.

Conservation of open solar magnetic flux and the floor in the heliospheric magnetic field

The near-Earth heliospheric magnetic field intensity, |B|, exhibits a strong solar cycle variation, but returns to the same ``floor'' value each solar minimum. The current minimum, however, has seen |B| drop below previous minima, bringing in to question the existence of a floor, or at the very least requiring a re-assessment of its value. In this study we assume heliospheric flux consists of a constant open flux component and a time-varying contribution from CMEs. In this scenario, the true floor is |B| with zero CME contribution. Using observed CME rates over the solar cycle, we estimate the ``no-CME'' |B| floor at ~4.0 +/- 0.3 nT, lower than previous floor estimates and below |B| observed this solar minimum. We speculate that the drop in |B| observed this minimum may be due to a persistently lower CME rate than the previous minimum, though there are large uncertainties in the supporting observational data.

Reconciling the electron counterstreaming and dropout occurrence rates with the heliospheric flux budget

Counterstreaming electrons (CSEs) are treated as signatures of closed magnetic flux, i.e., loops connected to the Sun at both ends. However, CSEs at 1 AU likely fade as the apex of a closed loop passes beyond some distance R, owing to scattering of the sunward beam along its continually increasing path length. The remaining antisunward beam at 1 AU would then give a false signature of open flux. Subsequent opening of a loop at the Sun by interchange reconnection with an open field line would produce an electron dropout (ED) at 1 AU, as if two open field lines were reconnecting to completely disconnect from the Sun. Thus EDs can be signatures of interchange reconnection as well as the commonly attributed disconnection. We incorporate CSE fadeout into a model that matches time-varying closed flux from interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) to the solar cycle variation in heliospheric flux. Using the observed occurrence rate of CSEs at solar maximum, the model estimates R ∼ 8–10 AU. Hence we demonstrate that EDs should be much rarer than CSEs at 1 AU, as EDs can only be detected when the juncture points of reconnected field lines lie sunward of the detector, whereas CSEs continue to be detected in the legs of all loops that have expanded beyond the detector, out to R. We also demonstrate that if closed flux added to the heliosphere by ICMEs is instead balanced by disconnection elsewhere, then ED occurrence at 1 AU would still be rare, contrary to earlier expectations.

Coronal mass ejections and magnetic flux buildup in the heliosphere

To test for magnetic flux buildup in the heliosphere from coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we simulate heliospheric flux as a constant background open flux with a time-varying interplanetary CME (ICME) contribution. As flux carried by ejecta can only contribute to the heliospheric flux budget while it remains closed, the ICME flux opening rate is an important factor. Two separate forms for the ICME flux opening rate are considered: (1) constant and (2) exponentially decaying with time. Coronagraph observations are used to determine the CME occurrence rates, while in situ observations are used to estimate the magnetic flux content of a typical ICME. Both static equilibrium and dynamic simulations, using the constant and exponential ICME flux opening models, require flux opening timescales of ∼50 days in order to match the observed doubling in the magnetic field intensity at 1 AU over the solar cycle. Such timescales are equivalent to a change in the ICME closed flux of only ∼7–12% between 1 and 5 AU, consistent with CSE signatures; no flux buildup results. The dynamic simulation yields a solar cycle flux variation with high variability that matches the overall variability of the observed magnetic field intensity remarkably well, including the double peak forming the Gnevyshev gap.

Modeling the variability of single-cell lag times for Listeria innocua populations after sublethal and lethal heat treatments

Optical density measurements were used to estimate the effect of heat treatments on the single-cell lag times of Listeria innocua fitted to a shifted gamma distribution. The single-cell lag time was subdivided into repair time ( the shift of the distribution assumed to be uniform for all cells) and adjustment time (varying randomly from cell to cell). After heat treatments in which all of the cells recovered (sublethal), the repair time and the mean and the variance of the single-cell adjustment time increased with the severity of the treatment. When the heat treatments resulted in a loss of viability (lethal), the repair time of the survivors increased with the decimal reduction of the cell numbers independently of the temperature, while the mean and variance of the single-cell adjustment times remained the same irrespective of the heat treatment. Based on these observations and modeling of the effect of time and temperature of the heat treatment, we propose that the severity of a heat treatment can be characterized by the repair time of the cells whether the heat treatment is lethal or not, an extension of the F value concept for sublethal heat treatments. In addition, the repair time could be interpreted as the extent or degree of injury with a multiple-hit lethality model. Another implication of these results is that the distribution of the time for cells to reach unacceptable numbers in food is not affected by the time-temperature combination resulting in a given decimal reduction.

Modelling the uptake and growth kinetics of Penicillium glabrum in a tannic acid-containing solid-state fermentation for tannase production

A mathematical growth model for the batch solid-state fermentation process for fungal tannase production was developed and tested experimentally. The unstructured model describes the uptake and growth kinetics of Penicillium glabrum in an impregnated polyurethane foam substrate system. In general, good agreement between the experimental data and model simulations was obtained. Biomass, tannase and spore production are described by logistic kinetics with a time delay between biomass production and tannase and spore formation. Possible induction mechanisms for the latter are proposed. Hydrolysis of tannic acid, the main carbon source in the substrate system, is reasonably well described with Michaelis-Menten kinetics with time-varying enzyme concentration but a more complex reaction mechanism is suspected. The metabolism of gallic acid, a tannase-hydrolysis product of tannic acid, was shown to be growth limiting during the main growth phase. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Models for evolving networks: with applications in telecommunication and online activities

Driven by a range of modern applications that includes telecommunications, e-business and on-line social interaction, recent ideas in complex networks can be extended to the case of time-varying connectivity. Here we propose a general frame- work for modelling and simulating such dynamic networks, and we explain how the long time behaviour may reveal important information about the mechanisms underlying the evolution.

Genetic least squares for system identification

The recursive least-squares algorithm with a forgetting factor has been extensively applied and studied for the on-line parameter estimation of linear dynamic systems. This paper explores the use of genetic algorithms to improve the performance of the recursive least-squares algorithm in the parameter estimation of time-varying systems. Simulation results show that the hybrid recursive algorithm (GARLS), combining recursive least-squares with genetic algorithms, can achieve better results than the standard recursive least-squares algorithm using only a forgetting factor.

Weighted input predictive controller

A discrete-time algorithm is presented which is based on a predictive control scheme in the form of dynamic matrix control. A set of control inputs are calculated and made available at each time instant, the actual input applied being a weighted summation of the inputs within the set. The algorithm is directly applicable in a self-tuning format and is therefore suitable for slowly time-varying systems in a noisy environment.

Applying the extended Kalman filter to systems described by nonlinear differential-algebraic equations

This paper describes a method for the state estimation of nonlinear systems described by a class of differential-algebraic equation models using the extended Kalman filter. The method involves the use of a time-varying linearisation of a semi-explicit index one differential-algebraic equation. The estimation technique consists of a simplified extended Kalman filter that is integrated with the differential-algebraic equation model. The paper describes a simulation study using a model of a batch chemical reactor. It also reports a study based on experimental data obtained from a mixing process, where the model of the system is solved using the sequential modular method and the estimation involves a bank of extended Kalman filters.

Autoregressive conditional kurtosis

This article proposes a new model for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity and kurtosis. Via a time-varying degrees of freedom parameter, the conditional variance and conditional kurtosis are permitted to evolve separately. The model uses only the standard Student’s t-density and consequently can be estimated simply using maximum likelihood. The method is applied to a set of four daily financial asset return series comprising U.S. and U.K. stocks and bonds, and significant evidence in favor of the presence of autoregressive conditional kurtosis is observed. Various extensions to the basic model are proposed, and we show that the response of kurtosis to good and bad news is not significantly asymmetric.

The cyclical behaviour of sector and regional diversification benefits: 1987-2002

This paper investigates the time series behaviour of the relative benefits of sector and regional diversification strategies, using the notion of cross-sectional dispersion introduced by Solnik and Roulet (2000). Using monthly data over the period 1987:1 to 2002:12, four sector and four regional classifications are examined in the UK. The results indicate that sector and regional dispersion indices are highly time varying and so dwarf any lower frequency cyclical components that may be present. Nonetheless, periods of high dispersion are closely followed by periods of low dispersion, suggestive of cyclical behaviour of sector and regional diversification benefits. Then, using the HP-filter we isolated the cyclical component of the various dispersion indices and found that the sector dispersion indices are generally above the regional dispersion indices. This implies that a sector diversification strategy is likely to offer greater risk reduction benefits than a regional diversification approach. Nonetheless, we find that in some periods, certain regional diversification strategies are of equal or greater benefit than certain sector approaches. The results also appear to be quite sensitive to the classifications of sectors and regions. Hence, the appropriate definition of sectors and regions can have important implications for sector and regional diversification strategies.

An ocean modelling and assimilation guide to using GOCE geoid products

We review the procedures and challenges that must be considered when using geoid data derived from the Gravity and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) mission in order to constrain the circulation and water mass representation in an ocean 5 general circulation model. It covers the combination of the geoid information with timemean sea level information derived from satellite altimeter data, to construct a mean dynamic topography (MDT), and considers how this complements the time-varying sea level anomaly, also available from the satellite altimeter. We particularly consider the compatibility of these different fields in their spatial scale content, their temporal rep10 resentation, and in their error covariances. These considerations are very important when the resulting data are to be used to estimate ocean circulation and its corresponding errors. We describe the further steps needed for assimilating the resulting dynamic topography information into an ocean circulation model using three different operational fore15 casting and data assimilation systems. We look at methods used for assimilating altimeter anomaly data in the absence of a suitable geoid, and then discuss different approaches which have been tried for assimilating the additional geoid information. We review the problems that have been encountered and the lessons learned in order the help future users. Finally we present some results from the use of GRACE geoid in20 formation in the operational oceanography community and discuss the future potential gains that may be obtained from a new GOCE geoid.

Sustained monitoring of the Southern Ocean at Drake Passage: past achievements and future priorities

Drake Passage is the narrowest constriction of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) in the Southern Ocean, with implications for global ocean circulation and climate. We review the long-term sustained monitoring programmes that have been conducted at Drake Passage, dating back to the early part of the twentieth century. Attention is drawn to numerous breakthroughs that have been made from these programmes, including (a) the first determinations of the complex ACC structure and early quantifications of its transport; (b) realization that the ACC transport is remarkably steady over interannual and longer periods, and a growing understanding of the processes responsible for this; (c) recognition of the role of coupled climate modes in dictating the horizontal transport, and the role of anthropogenic processes in this; (d) understanding of mechanisms driving changes in both the upper and lower limbs of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, and their impacts. It is argued that monitoring of this passage remains a high priority for oceanographic and climate research, but that strategic improvements could be made concerning how this is conducted. In particular, long-term programmes should concentrate on delivering quantifications of key variables of direct relevance to large-scale environmental issues: in this context, the time-varying overturning circulation is, if anything, even more compelling a target than the ACC flow. Further, there is a need for better international resource-sharing, and improved spatio-temporal coordination of the measurements. If achieved, the improvements in understanding of important climatic issues deriving from Drake Passage monitoring can be sustained into the future.