Análisis de la actividad neuronal y cerebral mediante técnicas de redes complejas

El cerebro humano es probablemente uno de los sistemas más complejos a los que nos enfrentamos en la actualidad, si bien es también uno de los más fascinantes. Sin embargo, la compresión de cómo el cerebro organiza su actividad para llevar a cabo tareas complejas es un problema plagado de restos y obstáculos. En sus inicios la neuroimagen y la electrofisiología tenían como objetivo la identificación de regiones asociadas a activaciones relacionadas con tareas especificas, o con patrones locales que variaban en el tiempo dada cierta actividad. Sin embargo, actualmente existe un consenso acerca de que la actividad cerebral tiene un carácter temporal multiescala y espacialmente extendido, lo que lleva a considerar el cerebro como una gran red de áreas cerebrales coordinadas, cuyas conexiones funcionales son continuamente creadas y destruidas. Hasta hace poco, el énfasis de los estudios de la actividad cerebral funcional se han centrado en la identidad de los nodos particulares que forman estas redes, y en la caracterización de métricas de conectividad entre ellos: la hipótesis subyacente es que cada nodo, que es una representación mas bien aproximada de una región cerebral dada, ofrece a una única contribución al total de la red. Por tanto, la neuroimagen funcional integra los dos ingredientes básicos de la neuropsicología: la localización de la función cognitiva en módulos cerebrales especializados y el rol de las fibras de conexión en la integración de dichos módulos. Sin embargo, recientemente, la estructura y la función cerebral han empezado a ser investigadas mediante la Ciencia de la Redes, una interpretación mecánico-estadística de una antigua rama de las matemáticas: La teoría de grafos. La Ciencia de las Redes permite dotar a las redes funcionales de una gran cantidad de propiedades cuantitativas (robustez, centralidad, eficiencia, ...), y así enriquecer el conjunto de elementos que describen objetivamente la estructura y la función cerebral a disposición de los neurocientíficos. La conexión entre la Ciencia de las Redes y la Neurociencia ha aportado nuevos puntos de vista en la comprensión de la intrincada anatomía del cerebro, y de cómo las patrones de actividad cerebral se pueden sincronizar para generar las denominadas redes funcionales cerebrales, el principal objeto de estudio de esta Tesis Doctoral. Dentro de este contexto, la complejidad emerge como el puente entre las propiedades topológicas y dinámicas de los sistemas biológicos y, específicamente, en la relación entre la organización y la dinámica de las redes funcionales cerebrales. Esta Tesis Doctoral es, en términos generales, un estudio de cómo la actividad cerebral puede ser entendida como el resultado de una red de un sistema dinámico íntimamente relacionado con los procesos que ocurren en el cerebro. Con este fin, he realizado cinco estudios que tienen en cuenta ambos aspectos de dichas redes funcionales: el topológico y el dinámico. De esta manera, la Tesis está dividida en tres grandes partes: Introducción, Resultados y Discusión. En la primera parte, que comprende los Capítulos 1, 2 y 3, se hace un resumen de los conceptos más importantes de la Ciencia de las Redes relacionados al análisis de imágenes cerebrales. Concretamente, el Capitulo 1 está dedicado a introducir al lector en el mundo de la complejidad, en especial, a la complejidad topológica y dinámica de sistemas acoplados en red. El Capítulo 2 tiene como objetivo desarrollar los fundamentos biológicos, estructurales y funcionales del cerebro, cuando éste es interpretado como una red compleja. En el Capítulo 3, se resumen los objetivos esenciales y tareas que serán desarrolladas a lo largo de la segunda parte de la Tesis. La segunda parte es el núcleo de la Tesis, ya que contiene los resultados obtenidos a lo largo de los últimos cuatro años. Esta parte está dividida en cinco Capítulos, que contienen una versión detallada de las publicaciones llevadas a cabo durante esta Tesis. El Capítulo 4 está relacionado con la topología de las redes funcionales y, específicamente, con la detección y cuantificación de los nodos mas importantes: aquellos denominados “hubs” de la red. En el Capítulo 5 se muestra como las redes funcionales cerebrales pueden ser vistas no como una única red, sino más bien como una red-de-redes donde sus componentes tienen que coexistir en una situación de balance funcional. De esta forma, se investiga cómo los hemisferios cerebrales compiten para adquirir centralidad en la red-de-redes, y cómo esta interacción se mantiene (o no) cuando se introducen fallos deliberadamente en la red funcional. El Capítulo 6 va un paso mas allá al considerar las redes funcionales como sistemas vivos. En este Capítulo se muestra cómo al analizar la evolución de la topología de las redes, en vez de tratarlas como si estas fueran un sistema estático, podemos caracterizar mejor su estructura. Este hecho es especialmente relevante cuando se quiere tratar de encontrar diferencias entre grupos que desempeñan una tarea de memoria, en la que las redes funcionales tienen fuertes fluctuaciones. En el Capítulo 7 defino cómo crear redes parenclíticas a partir de bases de datos de actividad cerebral. Este nuevo tipo de redes, recientemente introducido para estudiar las anormalidades entre grupos de control y grupos anómalos, no ha sido implementado nunca en datos cerebrales y, en este Capítulo explico cómo hacerlo cuando se quiere evaluar la consistencia de la dinámica cerebral. Para concluir esta parte de la Tesis, el Capítulo 8 se centra en la relación entre las propiedades topológicas de los nodos dentro de una red y sus características dinámicas. Como mostraré más adelante, existe una relación entre ellas que revela que la posición de un nodo dentro una red está íntimamente correlacionada con sus propiedades dinámicas. Finalmente, la última parte de esta Tesis Doctoral está compuesta únicamente por el Capítulo 9, el cual contiene las conclusiones y perspectivas futuras que pueden surgir de los trabajos expuestos. En vista de todo lo anterior, espero que esta Tesis aporte una perspectiva complementaria sobre uno de los más extraordinarios sistemas complejos frente a los que nos encontramos: El cerebro humano. ABSTRACT The human brain is probably one of the most complex systems we are facing, thus being a timely and fascinating object of study. Characterizing how the brain organizes its activity to carry out complex tasks is highly non-trivial. While early neuroimaging and electrophysiological studies typically aimed at identifying patches of task-specific activations or local time-varying patterns of activity, there has now been consensus that task-related brain activity has a temporally multiscale, spatially extended character, as networks of coordinated brain areas are continuously formed and destroyed. Up until recently, though, the emphasis of functional brain activity studies has been on the identity of the particular nodes forming these networks, and on the characterization of connectivity metrics between them, the underlying covert hypothesis being that each node, constituting a coarse-grained representation of a given brain region, provides a unique contribution to the whole. Thus, functional neuroimaging initially integrated the two basic ingredients of early neuropsychology: localization of cognitive function into specialized brain modules and the role of connection fibres in the integration of various modules. Lately, brain structure and function have started being investigated using Network Science, a statistical mechanics understanding of an old branch of pure mathematics: graph theory. Network Science allows endowing networks with a great number of quantitative properties, thus vastly enriching the set of objective descriptors of brain structure and function at neuroscientists’ disposal. The link between Network Science and Neuroscience has shed light about how the entangled anatomy of the brain is, and how cortical activations may synchronize to generate the so-called functional brain networks, the principal object under study along this PhD Thesis. Within this context, complexity appears to be the bridge between the topological and dynamical properties of biological systems and, more specifically, the interplay between the organization and dynamics of functional brain networks. This PhD Thesis is, in general terms, a study of how cortical activations can be understood as the output of a network of dynamical systems that are intimately related with the processes occurring in the brain. In order to do that, I performed five studies that encompass both the topological and the dynamical aspects of such functional brain networks. In this way, the Thesis is divided into three major parts: Introduction, Results and Discussion. In the first part, comprising Chapters 1, 2 and 3, I make an overview of the main concepts of Network Science related to the analysis of brain imaging. More specifically, Chapter 1 is devoted to introducing the reader to the world of complexity, specially to the topological and dynamical complexity of networked systems. Chapter 2 aims to develop the biological, topological and functional fundamentals of the brain when it is seen as a complex network. Next, Chapter 3 summarizes the main objectives and tasks that will be developed along the forthcoming Chapters. The second part of the Thesis is, in turn, its core, since it contains the results obtained along these last four years. This part is divided into five Chapters, containing a detailed version of the publications carried out during the Thesis. Chapter 4 is related to the topology of functional networks and, more specifically, to the detection and quantification of the leading nodes of the network: the hubs. In Chapter 5 I will show that functional brain networks can be viewed not as a single network, but as a network-of-networks, where its components have to co-exist in a trade-off situation. In this way, I investigate how the brain hemispheres compete for acquiring the centrality of the network-of-networks and how this interplay is maintained (or not) when failures are introduced in the functional network. Chapter 6 goes one step beyond by considering functional networks as living systems. In this Chapter I show how analyzing the evolution of the network topology instead of treating it as a static system allows to better characterize functional networks. This fact is especially relevant when trying to find differences between groups performing certain memory tasks, where functional networks have strong fluctuations. In Chapter 7 I define how to create parenclitic networks from brain imaging datasets. This new kind of networks, recently introduced to study abnormalities between control and anomalous groups, have not been implemented with brain datasets and I explain in this Chapter how to do it when evaluating the consistency of brain dynamics. To conclude with this part of the Thesis, Chapter 8 is devoted to the interplay between the topological properties of the nodes within a network and their dynamical features. As I will show, there is an interplay between them which reveals that the position of a node in a network is intimately related with its dynamical properties. Finally, the last part of this PhD Thesis is composed only by Chapter 9, which contains the conclusions and future perspectives that may arise from the exposed results. In view of all, I hope that reading this Thesis will give a complementary perspective of one of the most extraordinary complex systems: The human brain.

A multi-scale analysis of transforming agricultural markets in the context of globalization: implications for natural resources, food prices and rural poverty in Latin America

Vivimos una época en la que el mundo se transforma aceleradamente. La globalización está siguiendo un curso imparable, la población mundial así como la población urbana siguen creciendo, y en los países emergentes los ingresos promedios aumentan, resultando en un cambio también acelerado de las dietas y hábitos alimentarios. En conjunto esos factores están causando un aumento fundamental de la demanda de alimentos. Junto con la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, estos procesos han provocado un crecimiento del comercio internacional de alimentos durante la última década. Dado que muchos países de América Latina están dotados de abundancia de recursos naturales, estas tendencias han producido un crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de bienes primarios desde América Latina al resto del mundo. En sólo 30 años la participación en el mercado agrícola de América Latina casi se ha duplicado, desde 10% en 1980 a 18% en 2010. Este aumento del comercio agrícola ha dado lugar a un debate sobre una serie de cuestiones cruciales relacionadas con los impactos del comercio en la seguridad alimentaria mundial, en el medio ambiente o en la reducción de la pobreza rural en países en desarrollo. Esta tesis aplica un marco integrado para analizar varios impactos relacionados con la transformación de los mercados agrícolas y los mercados rurales debidos a la globalización y, en particular, al progresivo aumento del comercio internacional. En concreto, la tesis aborda los siguientes temas: En primer lugar, la producción mundial de alimentos tendrá que aumentar considerablemente para poder satisfacer la demanda de una población mundial de 9000 millones personas en 2050, lo cual plantea grandes desafíos sobre los sistemas de la producción de alimentos. Alcanzar este logro, sin comprometer la integridad del medio ambiente en regiones exportadoras, es un reto aún mayor. En este contexto, la tesis analiza los efectos de la liberalización del comercio mundial, considerando distintas tecnologías de producción agraria, sobre unos indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en diferentes regiones del mundo y sobre distintos indicadores ambientales, teniendo en cuenta escalas diferentes en América Latina y el Caribe. La tesis utiliza el modelo “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)” – un modelo dinámico de equilibrio parcial del sector agrícola a escala global – para modelar la apertura de los mercados agrícolas así como diferentes escenarios de la producción hasta el año 2050. Los resultados del modelo están vinculados a modelos biofísicos para poder evaluar los cambios en la huella hídrica y la calidad del agua, así como para cuantificar los impactos del cambio en el uso del suelo sobre la biodiversidad y los stocks de carbono en 2050. Los resultados indican que la apertura de los mercados agrícolas es muy importante para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a nivel mundial, sin embargo, produce también presiones ambientales indeseables en algunas regiones de América Latina. Contrastando dos escenarios que consideran distintas modos de producción, la expansión de la tierra agrícola frente a un escenario de la producción más intensiva, se demuestra que las mejoras de productividad son generalmente superiores a la expansión de las tierras agrícolas, desde un punto de vista económico e ambiental. En cambio, los escenarios de intensificación sostenible no sólo hacen posible una mayor producción de alimentos, sino que también generan menos impactos medioambientales que los otros escenarios futuros en todas sus dimensiones: biodiversidad, carbono, emisiones de nitratos y uso del agua. El análisis muestra que hay un “trade-off” entre el objetivo de alcanzar la sostenibilidad ambiental y el objetivo de la seguridad alimentaria, independiente del manejo agrícola en el futuro. En segundo lugar, a la luz de la reciente crisis de los precios de alimentos en los años 2007/08, la tesis analiza los impactos de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas en la transmisión de precios de los alimentos en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú. Para identificar las posibles relaciones de cointegración entre los índices de precios al consumidor de alimentos y los índices de precios de agrarios internacionales, sujetos a diferentes grados de apertura de mercados agrícolas en los seis países de América Latina, se utiliza un modelo simple de corrección de error (single equation error correction). Los resultados indican que la integración global de los mercados agrícolas ha dado lugar a diferentes tasas de transmisión de precios en los países investigados. Sobre todo en el corto plazo, las tasas de transmisión dependen del grado de apertura comercial, mientras que en el largo plazo las tasas de transmisión son elevadas, pero en gran medida independientes del régimen de comercio. Por lo tanto, durante un período de shocks de precios mundiales una mayor apertura del comercio trae consigo más inestabilidad de los precios domésticos a corto plazo y la resultante persistencia en el largo plazo. Sin embargo, estos resultados no verifican necesariamente la utilidad de las políticas comerciales, aplicadas frecuentemente por los gobiernos para amortiguar los shocks de precios. Primero, porque existe un riesgo considerable de volatilidad de los precios debido a cambios bruscos de la oferta nacional si se promueve la autosuficiencia en el país; y segundo, la política de proteccionismo asume el riesgo de excluir el país de participar en las cadenas de suministro de alto valor del sector agrícola, y por lo tanto esa política podría obstaculizar el desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, es indispensable establecer políticas efectivas para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares a los aumentos repentinos de precios de alimentos, lo cual requiere una planificación gubernamental precisa con el presupuesto requerido disponible. En tercer lugar, la globalización afecta a la estructura de una economía y, por medios distintos, la distribución de los ingreso en un país. Perú sirve como ejemplo para investigar más profundamente las cuestiones relacionadas con los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en zonas rurales. Perú, que es un país que está cada vez más integrado en los mercados mundiales, consiguió importantes descensos en la pobreza extrema en sus zonas rurales, pero a la vez adolece de alta incidencia de pobreza moderada y de desigualdad de los ingresos en zonas rural al menos durante el periodo comprendido entre 2004 y 2012. Esta parte de la tesis tiene como objetivo identificar las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de estas dinámicas en el Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de microsimulación basado en modelos de generación de ingresos aplicado a nivel los hogares rurales. Los resultados indican que la fuerza principal detrás de la reducción de la pobreza ha sido el crecimiento económico general de la economía, debido a las condiciones macroeconómicas favorables durante el periodo de estudio. Estos efectos de crecimiento beneficiaron a casi todos los sectores rurales, y dieron lugar a la disminución de la pobreza rural extrema, especialmente entre los agricultores de papas y de maíz. En parte, estos agricultores probablemente se beneficiaron de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, que es lo que podría haber provocado un aumento de los precios al productor en tiempos de altos precios mundiales de los alimentos. Sin embargo, los resultados también sugieren que para una gran parte de la población más pobre existían barreras de entrada a la hora de poder participar en el empleo asalariado fuera de la agricultura o en la producción de cultivos de alto valor. Esto podría explicarse por la falta de acceso a unos activos importantes: por ejemplo, el nivel de educación de los pobres era apenas mejor en 2012 que en 2004; y también las dotaciones de tierra y de mano de obra, sobre todo de los productores pobres de maíz y patata, disminuyeron entre 2004 y 2012. Esto lleva a la conclusión de que aún hay margen para aplicar políticas para facilitar el acceso a estos activos, que podría contribuir a la erradicación de la pobreza rural. La tesis concluye que el comercio agrícola puede ser un importante medio para abastecer una población mundial creciente y más rica con una cantidad suficiente de calorías. Para evitar adversos efectos ambientales e impactos negativos para los consumidores y de los productores pobres, el enfoque debe centrarse en las mejoras de la productividad agrícola, teniendo en cuenta los límites ambientales y ser socialmente inclusivo. En este sentido, será indispensable seguir desarrollando soluciones tecnológicas que garanticen prácticas de producción agrícola minimizando el uso de recursos naturales. Además, para los pequeños pobres agricultores será fundamental eliminar las barreras de entrada a los mercados de exportación que podría tener efectos indirectos favorables a través de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías alcanzables a través de mercados internacionales. ABSTRACT The world is in a state of rapid transition. Ongoing globalization, population growth, rising living standards and increasing urbanization, accompanied by changing dietary patterns throughout the world, are increasing the demand for food. Together with more open trade regimes, this has triggered growing international agricultural trade during the last decade. For many Latin American countries, which are gifted with relative natural resource abundance, these trends have fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010. These market developments have given rise to a debate around a number of crucial issues related to the role of agricultural trade for global food security, for the environment or for poverty reduction in developing countries. This thesis uses an integrated framework to analyze a broad array of possible impacts related to transforming agricultural and rural markets in light of globalization, and in particular of increasing trade activity. Specifically, the following issues are approached: First, global food production will have to rise substantially by the year 2050 to meet effective demand of a nine billion people world population which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity in exporting regions is an even greater challenge. In this context, the thesis explores the effects of future global trade liberalization on food security indicators in different world regions and on a variety of environmental indicators at different scales in Latin America and the Caribbean, in due consideration of different future agricultural production practices. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) –a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)– is applied to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050. Model results are linked to biophysical models, used to assess changes in water footprints and water quality, as well as impacts on biodiversity and carbon stocks from land use change by 2050. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Most promising for achieving food security and environmental goals, in equal measure, is the sustainable intensification scenario. However, the analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. Second, in light of the recent food price crisis of 2007/08, the thesis looks at the impacts of increasing agricultural market integration on food price transmission from global to domestic markets in six Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. To identify possible cointegrating relationships between the domestic food consumer price indices and world food price levels, subject to different degrees of agricultural market integration in the six Latin American countries, a single equation error correction model is used. Results suggest that global agricultural market integration has led to different levels of price path-through in the studied countries. Especially in the short-run, transmission rates depend on the degree of trade openness, while in the long-run transmission rates are high, but largely independent of the country-specific trade regime. Hence, under world price shocks more trade openness brings with it more price instability in the short-term and the resulting persistence in the long-term. However, these findings do not necessarily verify the usefulness of trade policies, often applied by governments to buffer such price shocks. First, because there is a considerable risk of price volatility due to domestic supply shocks if self-sufficiency is promoted. Second, protectionism bears the risk of excluding a country from participating in beneficial high-value agricultural supply chains, thereby hampering economic development. Nevertheless, to reduce households’ vulnerability to sudden and large increases of food prices, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. Third, globalization affects the structure of an economy and, by different means, the distribution of income in a country. Peru serves as an example to dive deeper into questions related to changes in the income distribution in rural areas. Peru, a country being increasingly integrated into global food markets, experienced large drops in extreme rural poverty, but persistently high rates of moderate rural poverty and rural income inequality between 2004 and 2012. The thesis aims at disentangling the driving forces behind these dynamics by using a microsimulation model based on rural household income generation models. Results provide evidence that the main force behind poverty reduction was overall economic growth of the economy due to generally favorable macroeconomic market conditions. These growth effects benefited almost all rural sectors, and led to declines in extreme rural poverty, especially among potato and maize farmers. In part, these farmers probably benefited from policy changes towards more open trade regimes and the resulting higher producer prices in times of elevated global food price levels. However, the results also suggest that entry barriers existed for the poorer part of the population to participate in well-paid wage-employment outside of agriculture or in high-value crop production. This could be explained by a lack of sufficient access to important rural assets. For example, poor people’s educational attainment was hardly better in 2012 than in 2004. Also land and labor endowments, especially of (poor) maize and potato growers, rather decreased than increased over time. This leads to the conclusion that there is still scope for policy action to facilitate access to these assets, which could contribute to the eradication of rural poverty. The thesis concludes that agricultural trade can be one important means to provide a growing and richer world population with sufficient amounts of calories. To avoid adverse environmental effects and negative impacts for poor food consumers and producers, the focus should lie on agricultural productivity improvements, considering environmental limits and be socially inclusive. In this sense, it will be crucial to further develop technological solutions that guarantee resource-sparing agricultural production practices, and to remove entry barriers for small poor farmers to export markets which might allow for technological spill-over effects from high-value global agricultural supply chains.

Synergies and trade-offs between renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation - a cross-national multifactor analysis

Peer reviewed

Global change synergies and trade-offs between renewable energy and biodiversity

Funded by Kone Foundation ERC-StG. Grant Number: 260393 Academy of Finland Centre of Excellence Programme 2012–2017

Multineuronal codes in retinal signaling.

The visual world is presented to the brain through patterns of action potentials in the population of optic nerve fibers. Single-neuron recordings show that each retinal ganglion cell has a spatially restricted receptive field, a limited integration time, and a characteristic spectral sensitivity. Collectively, these response properties define the visual message conveyed by that neuron's action potentials. Since the size of the optic nerve is strictly constrained, one expects the retina to generate a highly efficient representation of the visual scene. By contrast, the receptive fields of nearby ganglion cells often overlap, suggesting great redundancy among the retinal output signals. Recent multineuron recordings may help resolve this paradox. They reveal concerted firing patterns among ganglion cells, in which small groups of nearby neurons fire synchronously with delays of only a few milliseconds. As there are many more such firing patterns than ganglion cells, such a distributed code might allow the retina to compress a large number of distinct visual messages into a small number of optic nerve fibers. This paper will review the evidence for a distributed coding scheme in the retinal output. The performance limits of such codes are analyzed with simple examples, illustrating that they allow a powerful trade-off between spatial and temporal resolution.

Adaptive plasticity in hatching age: a response to predation risk trade-offs.

The life histories of many animals are characterized by niche shifts, the timing of which can strongly affect fitness. In the tree frog Agalychnis callidryas, which has arboreal eggs, there is a trade-off between predation risks before and after hatching. When eggs are attacked by snakes, tadpoles escape by hatching rapidly and falling into the water below. Eggs not attacked by snakes hatch later, when newly emerged tadpoles are less vulnerable to aquatic predators. Plasticity in hatching allows embryos to use immediate, local information on risk of mortality to make instantaneous behavioral decisions about hatching and the accompanying shift from arboreal to aquatic habitats.

Estrutura espacial urbana e mobilidade: o caso da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo

A metrópole de São Paulo é a maior e mais importante aglomeração urbana do Brasil e está entre as dez maiores áreas urbanas do mundo. No entanto, a forma como acessibilidade espacial ocorre gera um fardo para a população e para a atividade econômica. Este trabalho pretende contribuir para a discussão de como melhorar a acessibilidade na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo estudando as características e impactos de estruturas espaciais urbana, analisando criticamente a estrutura espacial da metrópole e proporcionando sugestões de melhorias a fim de proporcionar uma mobilidade mais sustentável. Os procedimentos metodológicos incluem uma revisão bibliográfica sobre o tema e uma caracterização da estrutura espacial da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, considerando a alocação de população, alocação de empregos e os padrões de deslocamento para os modais individual, coletivo e não motorizado. Apresentamos um relato da evolução recente, com dados das pesquisas de origem e destino realizadas pelo Metrô em 1997 e 2007 e da pesquisa de mobilidade de 2012. Também realizamos uma caracterização mais aprofundada com os dados da pesquisa de 2007. As cidades se desenvolvem com base no trade-off entre proximidade e mobilidade: a fim de maximizar as possibilidades de interação, as pessoas e as empresas tendem a se localizar onde o deslocamento necessário para executar essas interações requer menos custos financeiros, perda de tempo e desconforto. Esse processo molda a alocação espacial de atividades, que define parcialmente os hábitos de transporte. A estrutura espacial urbana pode ser caracterizada por sua escala (padrões compacto ou disperso), arranjo de densidades (padrão disperso ou clusterizado) e arranjo de atividade (padrão monocêntrico ou policêntrico). Estruturas espaciais com padrão mais compacto apresentam menores distâncias de viagem, reduzindo o impacto ambiental das viagens e viabilizando o transporte não motorizado e coletivo, e levam a um uso mais eficiente da terra, menor custo de infraestrutura e maior equidade no acesso ao transporte. Já estruturas clusterizadas policêntricas são associadas com maior facilidade de acesso à terra. Existe um debate sobre a capacidade de estruturas policêntricas resultarem em uma aproximação generalizada de empregos e residências. A Região Metropolitana de São Paulo apresenta um padrão monocêntrico na escala metropolitana, com fortes movimentos pendulares da periferia para o centro expandido da iii capital. Durante o período de análise, foi observada uma realocação da população para áreas mais centrais da cidade e uma centralização dos empregos ainda mais forte, resultando no agravamento dos movimentos pendulares. Existe uma clara divisão modal por renda: as classes mais altas utilizam majoritariamente automóveis, enquanto as classes mais baixas utilizam majoritariamente transporte coletivo e não motorizado. Para o futuro, o novo plano diretor tem o mérito de caminhar na direção do desenvolvimento urbano orientado pelo transporte sustentável, porém os níveis de densidade máxima permitidos ainda são parecidos com o do plano anterior e a largura dos eixos de adensamento é restrita. Acreditamos ser vantajoso um aumento do adensamento em áreas próximas dos empregos; geração de polos de adensamento em áreas mais afastadas dos empregos, mas próximas das infraestruturas de transporte coletivo de alta velocidade, e desencorajamento do adensamento em áreas com baixa acessibilidade. Também é necessária uma gestão integrada dos transportes, provendo infraestrutura para viagens não motorizadas e viagens intermodais, e uma gestão dos impactos negativos do adensamento.

Essays in dynamic optimal taxation: working experience, unemployment scarring and poverty

This thesis investigates the design of optimal tax systems in dynamic environments. The first essay characterizes the optimal tax system where wages depend on stochastic shocks and work experience. In addition to redistributive and efficiency motives, the taxation of inexperienced workers depends on a second-best requirement that encourages work experience, a social insurance motive and incentive effects. Calibrations using U.S. data yield higher expected optimal marginal income tax rates for experienced workers for most of the inexperienced workers. They confirm that the average marginal income tax rate increases (decreases) with age when shocks and work experience are substitutes (complements). Finally, more variability in experienced workers' earnings prospects leads to increasing tax rates since income taxation acts as a social insurance mechanism. In the second essay, the properties of an optimal tax system are investigated in a dynamic private information economy where labor market frictions create unemployment that destroys workers' human capital. A two-skill type model is considered where wages and employment are endogenous. I find that the optimal tax system distorts the first-period wages of all workers below their efficient levels which leads to more employment. The standard no-distortion-at-the-top result no longer holds due to the combination of private information and the destruction of human capital. I show this result analytically under the Maximin social welfare function and confirm it numerically for a general social welfare function. I also investigate the use of a training program and job creation subsidies. The final essay analyzes the optimal linear tax system when there is a population of individuals whose perceptions of savings are linked to their disposable income and their family background through family cultural transmission. Aside from the standard equity/efficiency trade-off, taxes account for the endogeneity of perceptions through two channels. First, taxing labor decreases income, which decreases the perception of savings through time. Second, taxation on savings corrects for the misperceptions of workers and thus savings and labor decisions. Numerical simulations confirm that behavioral issues push labor income taxes upward to finance saving subsidies. Government transfers to individuals are also decreased to finance those same subsidies.

Learning from the Nordic welfare model: what and how? EU Centre Singapore Working Paper No. 16, September 2013

This paper posits that the Nordic countries were able to ensure good standards of equality for its citizens, while at the same time maintaining decent levels of economic growth. This can be attributed to the Nordic countries’ more holistic approach towards social spending and their focus on uplifting the skill levels of its workforce. Thus, the notion that there must be a trade-off between economic performance and a more aggressive welfare regime should be examined more thoroughly. The debate for policy makers should perhaps be framed with regard to where the balance should be between growth and equity rather than a trade-off. Firstly, the paper will elaborate on what exactly the “Nordic model” is, based on a broad literature review. Next, the paper will unpack the key characteristics of the Nordic model and analyse if indeed expansive welfare provided through state support erodes work ethic and impact the economic competitiveness of countries. Next, the paper will provide an explanation for how the balance between economic and social objectives is maintained, in some of the Nordic countries. Lastly, the paper discusses whether the same balance can be achieved in Singapore.

Dynamic, convex, and robust optimization with Bayesian learning for response-guided dosing

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

On Managing Stochastic Decentralized Projects

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Towards Accurate and Efficient Description of Excited States

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The genetic covariance among clinal environments after adaptation to an environmental gradient in Drosophila serrata

We examined the genetic basis of clinal adaptation by determining the evolutionary response of life-history traits to laboratory natural selection along a gradient of thermal stress in Drosophila serrata. A gradient of heat stress was created by exposing larvae to a heat stress of 36degrees for 4 hr for 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 days of larval development, with the remainder of development taking place at 25degrees. Replicated lines were exposed to each level of this stress every second generation for 30 generations. At the end of selection, we conducted a complete reciprocal transfer experiment where all populations were raised in all environments, to estimate the realized additive genetic covariance matrix among clinal environments in three life-history traits. Visualization of the genetic covariance functions of the life-history traits revealed that the genetic correlation between environments generally declined as environments became more different and even became negative between the most different environments in some cases. One exception to this general pattern was a life-history trait representing the classic trade-off between development time and body size, which responded to selection in a similar genetic fashion across all environments. Adaptation to clinal environments may involve a number of distinct genetic effects along the length of the cline, the complexity of which may not be fully revealed by focusing primarily on populations at the ends of the cline.

Constraints on muscular performance: trade-offs between power output and fatigue resistance

An important functional and evolutionary constraint on the physical performance of vertebrates is believed to be the trade-off between speed and endurance capacity. However, despite the pervasiveness of physiological arguments, most studies have found no evidence of the trade-off when tested at the whole-animal level. We investigated the existence of this trade-off at the whole-muscle level, the presumed site of this physiological conflict, by examining inter-individual variation in both maximum power output and fatigue resistance for mouse extensor digitorum longus (EDL) muscle using the work-loop technique. We found negative correlations between several measures of in vitro maximum power output and force production with fatigue resistance for individual mouse EDL muscles, indicating functional trade-offs between these performance parameters. We suggest that this trade-off detected at the whole-muscle level has imposed an important constraint on the evolution of vertebrate physical performance.

Changes in morphology and physiology of an East Mediterranean sponge in different habitats

The sponge Tetilla sp. (Tetractinomorpha: Tetillidae) is a common species in the eastern Mediterranean. This sponge inhabits four different habitat types differing in wave impact and irradiance levels. Two of these habitats (a shallow cave and deep water) are characterized by relatively calm water, whereas the other two (shallow exposed site and tide pools) are in turbulent water with high energy flow. The present study examined the influence of physical (depth, illumination and water motion) and biotic factors on morphology, skeletal plasticity and reproductive traits among the four spatially separated populations. Sponges from tidal pools had significantly larger body volume than sponges from deep water and from shallow caves (ANOVA: tidal-deep P< 0.0001; tidal-shallow caves P< 0.05). Sponges from exposed habitats were significantly larger than deep-water sponges (ANOVA: P=0.01). In addition, individuals from tide pools and from the exposed habitat had a significantly higher proportion of structural silica than sponges from the calmer deep water and from the cave sites. Oxea spicules in sponges from the calm habitats were significantly shorter than in those from the tidal pools and the exposed habitats. The percentage of spicules out of a sponge's dry weight in individuals transplanted from deep (calm) to shallow (turbulent) water significantly increased by 21.9&PLUSMN; 12.9%. The new spicule percentage did not differ significantly from that of sponges originally from shallow water. Oocyte diameter differed significantly between habitats. The maximal size of mature eggs was found in deep-water sponges in June (97&PLUSMN; 5 μ m). In the shallow habitats, a smaller maximal oocyte diameter was found in the cave, in May (56.5&PLUSMN; 3 μ m). Furthermore, oocyte density in shallow-water sponges was highest in May and decreased in June (with 88.2&PLUSMN; 9 and 19.3&PLUSMN; 9 oocytes mm(-2), respectively). At the same time (June), oocyte density of deep-water sponges had just reached its maximum (155&PLUSMN; 33.7 oocytes mm(-2)). The difference in oocyte size and density between deep- and shallow-water individuals indicates an earlier gamete release in the shallow sponge population. The results suggest that plasticity in skeletal design of this sponge indicates a trade off between spicule production and investment in reproduction.