Epistemic marking in Ika (Arwako)

The paper describes epistemic marking in Ika (Arwako-Chibchan, Colombia) and proposes an analysis in terms of a typologically unusual pattern called conjunct/disjunct, which has been attested for a small number of Asian and South American languages. Canonically, conjunct occurs with first person subjects in statements and with second person in questions, as opposed to any other combination of subject and sentence-type, which is disjunct. The pattern found in Ika both conforms to expectations and, at the same time, contributes to a more nuanced analysis of the functional motivations of the conjunct/disjunct pattern. In Ika, conjunct marking encodes the speaker's direct access to an event that involves either (or both) of the speech participants. In addition, conjunct/disjunct marking interacts predictably with a second set of epistemic markers that encode asymmetries in the epistemic authority of the speaker and the addressee. The analysis builds on first-hand data but remains tentative, awaiting further investigation.

The role of 'perspective' in epistemic marking

The paper focuses on inter-personal aspects of the context in the analysis of evidential and related epistemic marking systems. While evidentiality is defined by its capacity to qualify the speaker's indexical point of view in terms of information source, it is argued that other aspects of the context are important to analyze evidentiality both conceptually and grammatically. These distinct, analytical components concern the illocutionary status of a given marker and its scope properties. The importance of the hearer's point of view in pragmatics and semantics is well attested and constitutes a convincing argument for an increased emphasis on the perspective of the hearer/addressee in analyses of epistemic marking, such as evidentiality. The paper discusses available accounts of evidentials that attend to the perspective of the addressee and also introduces lesser-known epistemic marking systems that share a functional space with evidentiality.

Territory and party:explaining public policy variation in the German Länder

This paper discusses in way in which partisan influence upon public policy, and wider historical, political and institutional pressures, can operate on a regional level and can lead to divergent policies existing within a nation-state. It offers an empirical discussion of two policy areas (education and childcare) at the regional Level (the level of the Länder) in Germany, confirming that both the partisan composition of regional government, and also wider institutional and historical pressures, exert a clear influence upon policy, lead to sharply variations in policy within the nation state. Two conclusions can be drawn: that the region cab be an important unit of analysis in Political Science and Public Policy, and that scholars of policy change may find the regional level fertile ground in analysing wider political phenomena.

Charting new territory for organizational ethnography:insights from a team-based video ethnography of reinsurance trading in Lloyd’s of London

An increasing interest in “bringing actors back in” and gaining a nuanced understanding of their actions and interactions across a variety of strands in the management literature, has recently helped ethnography to unknown prominence in the field of organizational studies. Yet, calls remain that ethnography should “play a much more central role in the organization and management studies repertoire than it currently does” (Watson, 2011: 202). Ironically, those organizational realities that ethnographers are called to examine have at the same time become less and less amenable to ethnographic study. In this paper, we respond to these calls for innovative ethnographic methods in two ways. First, we report on the practices and ethnographic experiences of conducting a year-long team-based video ethnography of reinsurance trading in Lloyd’s of London. Second, drawing on these experiences, we propose an initial framework for systematizing new approaches to organizational ethnography and visualizing the ways in which they are ‘expanding’ ethnography as it was traditionally practiced.

Candidate knowledge? Exploring epistemic claims in scientific writing:a corpus-driven approach

In this article I argue that the study of the linguistic aspects of epistemology has become unhelpfully focused on the corpus-based study of hedging and that a corpus-driven approach can help to improve upon this. Through focusing on a corpus of texts from one discourse community (that of genetics) and identifying frequent tri-lexical clusters containing highly frequent lexical items identified as keywords, I undertake an inductive analysis identifying patterns of epistemic significance. Several of these patterns are shown to be hedging devices and the whole corpus frequencies of the most salient of these, candidate and putative, are then compared to the whole corpus frequencies for comparable wordforms and clusters of epistemic significance. Finally I interviewed a ‘friendly geneticist’ in order to check my interpretation of some of the terms used and to get an expert interpretation of the overall findings. In summary I argue that the highly unexpected patterns of hedging found in genetics demonstrate the value of adopting a corpus-driven approach and constitute an advance in our current understanding of how to approach the relationship between language and epistemology.

Átmenettan és közgazdaságtan. Módszertani tanulságok egy részterület műveléséből (Transitology and economics. Methodological lessons to be drawn from work in a partial territory)

Az akadémiai székfoglaló előadás a teljesség igénye nélkül arra a kérdésre keresi a választ, hogy a posztkommunista átalakulás tanulmányozása milyen hasznosítható tanulságokkal szolgált a közgazdasági elmélet művelőinek szélesebb köre számára. Megállapítja, hogy - a világ közgazdaságtanában folyó megújulással párhuzamosan - a módszertani pluralizmus, ezen belül a történeti, az intézményi és az összehasonlító gazdaságtani közelítés visszahelyezése jogaiba, valamint az egyoldalúan csak a matematikai formalizálást előtérbe állító megoldások visszaszorulása figyelhető meg. _____ This inaugural lecture delivered on receiving membership of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences seeks, without attempting completeness, to examine what useful lessons could be drawn from study of the post-communist transformation for practitioners in wider fields of economics. It establishes that methodological pluralism, including the rights of historical, institutional and comparative economic approaches, is being relegated by the renewal taking place in world economics. This can be seen to be constricting the approaches that place mathematical formalism to the fore.

Regional climate change impacts on wild animals' living territory in Central Europe

In this paper the projected future impact of climate change has been analyzed for the quality of living conditions of the European terrestrial vertebrates (amphibians, reptiles, birds, mammals) in the Carpathian Basin. According to the climate scenarios, warmer and drier climatic conditions are likely to occur in the Carpathian Basin by end of this century. Simultaneous analysis of climate parameters, climate simulations and animal range datasets enables us to evaluate the vulnerability of different European species to regional warming and climate change. The spatial climate analogy technique is used to analyze the estimated rapid change of the wild animals’ habitats and their northward migration. For the reference climate data of Debrecen is considered, and three spatial analogue regions are compared. The results suggest that generally a significant decline in habitats is very likely for most of the analyzed animal groups by the end of the 21st century. The largest rate of decline is estimated for birds. However, living conditions for reptiles may improve in the future due to the warmer and drier climatic conditions, which are favourable for these species.

A new epistemic model

Meier (2012) gave a "mathematical logic foundation" of the purely measurable universal type space (Heifetz and Samet, 1998). The mathematical logic foundation, however, discloses an inconsistency in the type space literature: a finitary language is used for the belief hierarchies and an infinitary language is used for the beliefs. In this paper we propose an epistemic model to fix the inconsistency above. We show that in this new model the universal knowledgebelief space exists, is complete and encompasses all belief hierarchies. Moreover, by examples we demonstrate that in this model the players can agree to disagree Aumann (1976)'s result does not hold, and Aumann and Brandenburger (1995)'s conditions are not sufficient for Nash equilibrium. However, we show that if we substitute selfevidence (Osborne and Rubinstein, 1994) for common knowledge, then we get at that both Aumann (1976)'s and Aumann and Brandenburger (1995)'s results hold.

Determinants of confidence and their effect on epistemic judgments: Implications for auditor calibration bias

Auditor decisions regarding the causes of accounting misstatements can have an audit effectiveness and efficiency. Specifically, overconfidence in one's decision can lead to an ineffective audit, whereas underconfidence in one's decision can lead to an inefficient audit. This dissertation explored the implications of providing various types of information cues to decision-makers regarding an Analytical Procedure task and investigated the relationship between different types of evidence cues (confirming, disconfirming, redundant or non-redundant) and the reduction in calibration bias. Information was collected using a laboratory experiment, from 45 accounting students participants. Research questions were analyzed using a 2 x 2 x 2 between-subject and within-subject analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). ^ Results indicated that presenting subjects with information cues dissimilar to the choice they made is an effective intervention in reducing the common overconfidence found in decision-making. In addition, other information characteristics, specifically non-redundant information can help in reducing a decision-maker's overconfidence/calibration bias for difficulty (compared to easy) decision-tasks. ^

An epistemic event -based correlation scheme for pervasive network management

Computer networks produce tremendous amounts of event-based data that can be collected and managed to support an increasing number of new classes of pervasive applications. Examples of such applications are network monitoring and crisis management. Although the problem of distributed event-based management has been addressed in the non-pervasive settings such as the Internet, the domain of pervasive networks has its own characteristics that make these results non-applicable. Many of these applications are based on time-series data that possess the form of time-ordered series of events. Such applications also embody the need to handle large volumes of unexpected events, often modified on-the-fly, containing conflicting information, and dealing with rapidly changing contexts while producing results with low-latency. Correlating events across contextual dimensions holds the key to expanding the capabilities and improving the performance of these applications. This dissertation addresses this critical challenge. It establishes an effective scheme for complex-event semantic correlation. The scheme examines epistemic uncertainty in computer networks by fusing event synchronization concepts with belief theory. Because of the distributed nature of the event detection, time-delays are considered. Events are no longer instantaneous, but duration is associated with them. Existing algorithms for synchronizing time are split into two classes, one of which is asserted to provide a faster means for converging time and hence better suited for pervasive network management. Besides the temporal dimension, the scheme considers imprecision and uncertainty when an event is detected. A belief value is therefore associated with the semantics and the detection of composite events. This belief value is generated by a consensus among participating entities in a computer network. The scheme taps into in-network processing capabilities of pervasive computer networks and can withstand missing or conflicting information gathered from multiple participating entities. Thus, this dissertation advances knowledge in the field of network management by facilitating the full utilization of characteristics offered by pervasive, distributed and wireless technologies in contemporary and future computer networks.

Paragenesis, geochemistry and metallogeny of the Dublin Gulch intrusion-related Au deposit, Yukon Territory, Canada

This study concerns the Dublin Gulch intrusion-related gold system, Yukon Territory, Canada. Located 85 km, north northwest of the town of Mayo, YT, the property hosts a 3.3 M oz Au deposit associated with a mid-Cretaceous pluton. A detailed, 8 stage, hydrothermal paragenesis has been constructed for the deposit. At least two discrete fluids are responsible for sulfide mineralization at Dublin Gulch. The latter of the two hydrothermal fluids is responsible for the majority of Au endowment on the property. Geochemical signatures of mineralization support this finding, displaying distinct populations of arsenopyrite compositions and sulfur isotopes for each fluid. Lead isotopes from sulfosalts associated with the second fluid suggest hydrothermal scavenging from country rocks. Geochronology and petrogenetic studies show that a short lived intrusive event c. 93-94 Ma took place at Dublin Gulch and that the main Au mineralising fluid may be linked to a yet unseen intrusion at depth.

Skepticism and epistemic closure : two Bayesian accounts

Peer reviewed

Skepticism and epistemic closure : two Bayesian accounts

Peer reviewed