Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.

Co-evolution between sociality and dispersal: The role of synergistic cooperative benefits.

Explaining the evolution of sociality is challenging because social individuals face disadvantages that must be balanced by intrinsic benefits of living in a group. One potential route towards the evolution of sociality may emerge from the avoidance of dispersal, which can be risky in some environments. Although early studies found that local competition may cancel the benefits of cooperation in viscous populations, subsequent studies have identified conditions, such as the presence of kin recognition or specific demographic conditions, under which altruism will still spread. Most of these studies assume that the costs of cooperating outweigh the direct benefits (strong altruism). In nature, however, many organisms gain synergistic benefits from group living, which may counterbalance even costly altruistic behaviours. Here, we use an individual based model to investigate how dispersal and social behaviour co-evolve when social behaviours result in synergistic benefits that counterbalance the relative cost of altruism to a greater extent than assumed in previous models. When the cost of cooperation is high, selection for sociality responds strongly to the cost of dispersal. In particular, cooperation can begin to spread in a population when higher cooperation levels become correlated with lower dispersal tendencies within individuals. In contrast, less costly social behaviours are less sensitive to the cost of dispersal. In line with previous studies, we find that mechanisms of global population control also affect this relationship: when whole patches (groups) go extinct each generation, selection favours a relatively high dispersal propensity, and social behaviours evolve only when they are not very costly. If random individuals within groups experience mortality each generation to maintain a global carrying capacity, on the other hand, social behaviours spread and dispersal is reduced, even when the latter is not costly.

Factors associated with beliefs about adherence to non-pharmacological treatment of patients with heart failure

This study aimed at assessing beliefs about the benefits and barriers to adherence to daily self-monitoring of weight/edema in patients with heart failure, and the influence of demographic and clinical variables on those beliefs. 105 patients were interviewed. The mean of the subscales Benefits and Barriers were 20.2 (± 5.7) and 30.1 (±7.1), respectively. Patients perceived that adherence to daily self-monitoring of weight/edema could keep them healthy, improve their quality of life and decrease the chances of readmission. Approximately half of patients (46.7%) reported forgetting this measure. Those who controlled weight once a month were more likely to have barriers to adherence (OR= 6.6; IC 95% 1.9-13.8; p=0.01), showing this measure to be the main factor related to perceived barriers. Education in health can contribute with the development of strategies aimed at lowering barriers and increasing benefits of this control.

Study of Iowa's Current Road Use Tax Funds (RUTF) and Future Road Maintenance and Construction Needs, 2006

The 81st General Assembly of the Iowa Legislature, in Section 85 of House File 868, required the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) to conduct a study of current Road Use Tax Fund (RUTF)revenues, and projected roadway construction and maintenance needs.

Study of Iowa’s Current Road Use Tax Funds (RUTF) and Future Road Maintenance and Construction Needs, 2006

The 81st General Assembly of the Iowa legislature, in Section 85 of House File 868, required the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) to conduct a study of current Road Use Tax Fund (RUTF) revenues, and projected roadway construction and maintenance needs. With input from Iowa’s cities, counties and other interested groups, the Iowa DOT completed this report for submittal to the legislature.

Study of Iowa’s Current Road Use Tax Funds (RUTF) and Future Road Maintenance and Construction Needs, 2006

The 81st General Assembly of the Iowa legislature, in Section 85 of House File 868, required the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) to conduct a study of current Road Use Tax Fund (RUTF) revenues, and projected roadway construction and maintenance needs.

State of Iowa Public Drinking Water Program 1996 Annual Compliance Report, December 1997

This report contains information about Iowa's public drinking water program for the calendar year 1996. Included in the report are descriptions of Iowa's systems, monitoring and reporting requirements of the systems, and violations incurred during the year. This report meets the federal Safe Drinking Water Act's requirement of an annual report on violations of national primary drinking water regulations by public water supply systems in Iowa.

State of Iowa Public Drinking Water Program 1997 Annual Compliance Report, June 1998

This report contains information about Iowa's public drinking water program for the calendar year 1997. Included in the report are descriptions of Iowa's systems, monitoring and reporting requirements of the systems, and violations incurred during the year. This report meets the federal Safe Drinking Water Act's requirement of an annual report on violations of national primary drinking water regulations by public water supply systems in Iowa.

State of Iowa Public Drinking Water Program 1998 Annual Compliance Report, June 1999

This report contains information about Iowa's public drinking water program for the calendar year 1998. Included in the report are descriptions of Iowa's systems, monitoring and reporting requirements of the systems, and violations incurred during the year. This report meets the federal Safe Drinking Water Act's requirement of an annual report on violations of national primary drinking water regulations by public water supply systems in Iowa.

State of Iowa Public Drinking Water Program 1999 Annual Compliance Report, June 2000

This report contains information about Iowa's public drinking water program for the calendar year 1999. Included in the report are descriptions of Iowa's systems, monitoring and reporting requirements of the systems, and violations incurred during the year. This report meets the federal Safe Drinking Water Act's requirement of an annual report on violations of national primary drinking water regulations by public water supply systems in Iowa.

State of Iowa Public Drinking Water Program 2000 Annual Compliance Report, June 2001

This report contains information about Iowa's public drinking water program for the calendar year 2000. Included in the report are descriptions of Iowa's systems, monitoring and reporting requirements of the systems, and violations incurred during the year. This report meets the federal Safe Drinking Water Act's requirement of an annual report on violations of national primary drinking water regulations by public water supply systems in Iowa.

State of Iowa Public Drinking Water Program 2001 Annual Compliance Report, September 2002

This report contains information about Iowa's public drinking water program for the calendar year 2001. Included in the report are descriptions of Iowa's systems, monitoring and reporting requirements of the systems, and violations incurred during the year. This report meets the federal Safe Drinking Water Act's requirement of an annual report on violations of national primary drinking water regulations by public water supply systems in Iowa.

State of Iowa Public Drinking Water Program 2002 Annual Compliance Report, December 2003

This report contains information about Iowa's public drinking water program for the calendar year 2002. Included in the report are descriptions of Iowa's systems, monitoring and reporting requirements of the systems, and violations incurred during the year. This report meets the federal Safe Drinking Water Act's requirement of an annual report on violations of national primary drinking water regulations by public water supply systems in Iowa.