Real options and multinational investments : an empirical study of risk, performance and organisational awareness

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT This thesis is a cross-disciplinary study of the empirical impact of real options theory in the fields of decision sciences and performance management. Borrowing from the economics, strategy and operations research literature, the research examines the risk and performance implications of real options in firms’ strategic investments and multinational operations. An emphasis is placed on the flexibility potential and competitive advantage of multinational corporations to explore the extent to which real options analysis can be classified as best practice in management research. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques the evidence suggests that, if real options are explored and exploited appropriately, real options management can result in superior performance for multinational companies. The qualitative findings give an overview of the practical advantages and disadvantages of real options and the statistical results reveal that firms which have developed a high awareness of their real options are, as predicted by the theory, able to reduce their downside risk and increase profits through flexibility, organisational slack and multinationality. Although real options awareness does not systematically guarantee higher returns from operations, supplementary findings indicate that firms with evidence of significant investments in the acquisition of real options knowledge tend to outperform competitors which are unaware of their real options. There are three contributions of this research. First, it extends the real options and capacity planning literature to path-dependent contingent-claims analysis to underline the benefits of average type options in capacity allocation. Second, it is thought to be the first to explicitly examine the performance effects of real options on a sample of firms which have developed partial capabilities in real options analysis suggesting that real options diffusion can be key to value creation. Third, it builds a new decision-aiding framework to facilitate the use of real options in projects appraisal and strategic planning.

Fundamental mechanisms affecting service performance of electroplated plastics

Ten grades of ABS and four grades of polypropylene have been plated with various copper + nickel + chromium coatings and subjected to a variety of tests. In corrosion studies the pre-electroplating sequence and plastics type have been shown to influence performance. One ABS pre-electroplating sequence was consistently associated with better corrosion performance; two factors were responsible for this, namely the more severe nature of the etch and the relatively more noble electroless nickel. Statistical analysis has indicated that order of severity of the corrosion tests was static-mobile-CASS, the latter being the least severe. In mechanical tests two properties of ABS and polypropJylene, ductility and impact strength, have been shown to be adversely affected when electrodeposited layers were applied. The cause of this is due to a complex of factors, the most important of which is the notch sensitivity of the plastics. Peel adhesion has been studied on flat panels and also on ones which had a ridge and a valley moulded into one face. High adhesion peaks occurred on the flat face at regions associated with the ridge and valley. The local moulding conditions induced by the features were responsible for this phenonemon. In the main programme the thermal cycling test was shown to be more likely than the peel adhesion test to give an indication of the service performance of electroplated plastics.

The influence of the socio-educational reading environment in an Arab University upon English reading performance

Research into FL/EFL macro-reading (the effect of the broader context of reading) has been little explored in spite of its importance in the FL/EFL reading programmes. This study was designed to build on previous work by explaining in more depth the influence of the socio-educational reading environment in an Arab university (Al-Fateh University in Tripoli, Libya) - as reported by students, upon these students' reading ability in English and Arabic (particularly the former). Certain aspects of the lecturers' reading habits and attitudes and classroom operation were also investigated. Written cloze tests in English and Arabic and self-administered questionnaires were given to 125 preliminary-year undergraduates in three faculties of Al-Fateh University on the basis of their use of English as a medium of instruction (one representing the Arts' stream and two representing the Science stream). Twenty two lecturers were interviewed and observed by an inventory technique along with twenty other preliminary-year students. Factor analysis and standard multiple regression technique were among the statistical methods used to analyse the main data. The findings demonstrate a significant relationship between reading ability in English and the reading individual and environmental variables - as defined in the study. A combination of common and different series of such predictors were found accountable for the variation (43% for the first year English specialist; 48% for the combined Medicine student sample) in the English reading tests. Also found was a significant, though not very large, relationship between reading ability in Arabic and the reading environment. Non-statistical but objective analyses, based on the present data, also revealed an overall association between English reading performance and an important number of reading environmental variables - where many `poor' users of the reading environment (particularly the academic one) obtained low scores in the English cloze tests. Accepting the limitations of a single study, it is nevertheless clear that the reading environment at the University is in need of improvement and that students' use of it also requires better guidance and training in how to use it effectively. Suggestions are made for appropriate educational changes.

Numerical and statistical analysis of long-haul undersea optical communication systems

Firstly, we numerically model a practical 20 Gb/s undersea configuration employing the Return-to-Zero Differential Phase Shift Keying data format. The modelling is completed using the Split-Step Fourier Method to solve the Generalised Nonlinear Schrdinger Equation. We optimise the dispersion map and per-channel launch power of these channels and investigate how the choice of pre/post compensation can influence the performance. After obtaining these optimal configurations, we investigate the Bit Error Rate estimation of these systems and we see that estimation based on Gaussian electrical current systems is appropriate for systems of this type, indicating quasi-linear behaviour. The introduction of narrower pulses due to the deployment of quasi-linear transmission decreases the tolerance to chromatic dispersion and intra-channel nonlinearity. We used tools from Mathematical Statistics to study the behaviour of these channels in order to develop new methods to estimate Bit Error Rate. In the final section, we consider the estimation of Eye Closure Penalty, a popular measure of signal distortion. Using a numerical example and assuming the symmetry of eye closure, we see that we can simply estimate Eye Closure Penalty using Gaussian statistics. We also see that the statistics of the logical ones dominates the statistics of the logical ones dominates the statistics of signal distortion in the case of Return-to-Zero On-Off Keying configurations.

Composite CDMA—a statistical mechanics analysis

Code division multiple access (CDMA) in which the spreading code assignment to users contains a random element has recently become a cornerstone of CDMA research. The random element in the construction is particularly attractive as it provides robustness and flexibility in utilizing multiaccess channels, whilst not making significant sacrifices in terms of transmission power. Random codes are generated from some ensemble; here we consider the possibility of combining two standard paradigms, sparsely and densely spread codes, in a single composite code ensemble. The composite code analysis includes a replica symmetric calculation of performance in the large system limit, and investigation of finite systems through a composite belief propagation algorithm. A variety of codes are examined with a focus on the high multi-access interference regime. We demonstrate scenarios both in the large size limit and for finite systems in which the composite code has typical performance exceeding those of sparse and dense codes at equivalent signal to noise ratio.

Typical performance of generalised vector channels

We introduce a general matrix formulation for multiuser channels and analyse the special cases of Multiple-Input Multiple-Output channels, channels with interference and relay arrays under LDPC coding using methods developed for the statistical mechanics of disordered systems. We use the replica method to provide results for the typical overlaps of the original and recovered messages and discuss their implications. The results obtained are consistent with belief propagation and density evolution results but also complement them giving additional insights into the information dynamics of these channels with unexpected effects in some cases.

The link between HR practices, psychological contract fulfillment, and organizational performance:the case of the Greek services sector

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of human resource (HR) practices on organizational performance through the mediating role of psychological contract (expressed by the influence of employer on employee promises fulfillment through employee attitudes). The study is based on a national sample of 78 organizations from the public and private services sector in Greece, including education, health, and banking, and on data obtained from 348 employees. The statistical method employed is structural equation modeling, via LISREL and bootstrapping estimation. The findings of the study suggest that employee incentives, performance appraisal, and employee promotion are three major HR practices that must be extensively employed. Furthermore, the study suggests that the organization must primarily keep its promises about a pleasant and safe working environment, respectful treatment, and feedback for performance, in order for employees to largely keep their own promises about showing loyalty to the organization, maintaining high levels of attendance, and upholding company reputation. Additionally, the study argues that the employee attitudes of motivation, satisfaction, and commitment constitute the nested epicenter mediating construct in both the HR practices–performance and employer–employee promise fulfillment relationships, resulting in superior organizational performance. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Managing performance of organisational units with PIMsoft:a new DEA software

DEA literature continues apace but software has lagged behind. This session uses suitably selected data to present newly developed software which includes many of the most recent DEA models. The software enables the user to address a variety of issues not frequently found in existing DEA software such as: -Assessments under a variety of possible assumptions of returns to scale including NIRS and NDRS; -Scale elasticity computations; -Numerous Input/Output variables and truly unlimited number of assessment units (DMUs) -Panel data analysis -Analysis of categorical data (multiple categories) -Malmquist Index and its decompositions -Computations of Supper efficiency -Automated removal of super-efficient outliers under user-specified criteria; -Graphical presentation of results -Integrated statistical tests

Quality management and performance:a comparison between the UK and Turkey

Purpose: The aim of this article is to detail the correlation between quality management, specifically its tools and critical success factors, and performance in terms of primary operational and secondary organisational performances. Design/methodology/approach: Survey data from the UK and Turkey were analysed using exploratory factor analyses, structural equation modelling and regression analysis. Findings: The results show that quality management has a significant and positive impact on both primary and secondary performances; that Turkish and UK attitudes to quality management are similar; and that quality management is widely practised in manufacturing and service industries but has more statistical emphasis in the manufacturing sector. The main challenge for making quality management practice more effective lies in an appropriate balanced use of the different sorts of the tools and critical success factors. Originality/value: This study takes a novel approach by: (i) exploring the relationship between primary operational and secondary organisational performances, (ii) using service and manufacturing data and (iii) making a cross-country comparison between the UK (a developed economy) and Turkey (a developing economy). Limitations: Detailed contrast provided between only two countries. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Semi-supervised learning of statistical models for natural language understanding

Natural language understanding is to specify a computational model that maps sentences to their semantic mean representation. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to train the statistical models without using expensive fully annotated data. In particular, the input of our framework is a set of sentences labeled with abstract semantic annotations. These annotations encode the underlying embedded semantic structural relations without explicit word/semantic tag alignment. The proposed framework can automatically induce derivation rules that map sentences to their semantic meaning representations. The learning framework is applied on two statistical models, the conditional random fields (CRFs) and the hidden Markov support vector machines (HM-SVMs). Our experimental results on the DARPA communicator data show that both CRFs and HM-SVMs outperform the baseline approach, previously proposed hidden vector state (HVS) model which is also trained on abstract semantic annotations. In addition, the proposed framework shows superior performance than two other baseline approaches, a hybrid framework combining HVS and HM-SVMs and discriminative training of HVS, with a relative error reduction rate of about 25% and 15% being achieved in F-measure.

Typical performance of regular low-density parity-check codes over general symmetric channels

Typical performance of low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes over a general binary-input output-symmetric memoryless channel is investigated using methods of statistical mechanics. Relationship between the free energy in statistical-mechanics approach and the mutual information used in the information-theory literature is established within a general framework; Gallager and MacKay-Neal codes are studied as specific examples of LDPC codes. It is shown that basic properties of these codes known for particular channels, including their potential to saturate Shannon's bound, hold for general symmetric channels. The binary-input additive-white-Gaussian-noise channel and the binary-input Laplace channel are considered as specific channel models.

Strategic supplier performance evaluation:a case-based action research of a UK manufacturing organisation

The main aim of this research is to demonstrate strategic supplier performance evaluation of a UK-based manufacturing organisation using an integrated analytical framework. Developing long term relationship with strategic suppliers is common in today's industry. However, monitoring suppliers' performance all through the contractual period is important in order to ensure overall supply chain performance. Therefore, client organisations need to measure suppliers' performance dynamically and inform them on improvement measures. Although there are many studies introducing innovative supplier performance evaluation frameworks and empirical researches on identifying criteria for supplier evaluation, little has been reported on detailed application of strategic supplier performance evaluation and its implication on overall performance of organisation. Additionally, majority of the prior studies emphasise on lagging factors (quality, delivery schedule and value/cost) for supplier selection and evaluation. This research proposes both leading (organisational practices, risk management, environmental and social practices) and lagging factors for supplier evaluation and demonstrates a systematic method for identifying those factors with the involvement of relevant stakeholders and process mapping. The contribution of this article is a real-life case-based action research utilising an integrated analytical model that combines quality function deployment and the analytic hierarchy process method for suppliers' performance evaluation. The effectiveness of the method has been demonstrated through number of validations (e.g. focus group, business results, and statistical analysis). Additionally, the study reveals that enhanced supplier performance results positive impact on operational and business performance of client organisation.

Model and performance of a no-reference quality assessment metric for video streaming

Video streaming via Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) networks has become a popular and highly demanded service, but its quality assessment in both objective and subjective terms has not been properly addressed. In this paper, based on statistical analysis a full analytic model of a no-reference objective metric, namely pause intensity (PI), for video quality assessment is presented. The model characterizes the video playout buffer behavior in connection with the network performance (throughput) and the video playout rate. This allows for instant quality measurement and control without requiring a reference video. PI specifically addresses the need for assessing the quality issue in terms of the continuity in the playout of TCP streaming videos, which cannot be properly measured by other objective metrics such as peak signal-to-noise-ratio, structural similarity, and buffer underrun or pause frequency. The performance of the analytical model is rigidly verified by simulation results and subjective tests using a range of video clips. It is demonstrated that PI is closely correlated with viewers' opinion scores regardless of the vastly different composition of individual elements, such as pause duration and pause frequency which jointly constitute this new quality metric. It is also shown that the correlation performance of PI is consistent and content independent. © 2013 IEEE.

An empirical investigation on firm-level performance of cross border mergers and acquisitions

This empirical study investigates the performance of cross border M&A. The first stage is to identify the determinants of making cross border M&A complete. One focus here is to extend the existing empirical evidence in the field of cross border M&A and exploit the likelihood of M&A from a different perspective. Given the determinants of cross border M&A completions, the second stage is to investigate the effects of cross border M&A on post-acquisition firm performance for both targets and acquirers. The thesis exploits a hitherto unused data base, which consists of those firms that are rumoured to be undertaking M&A, and then follow the deal to completion or abandonment. This approach highlights a number of limitations to the previous literature, which relies on statistical methodology to identify potential but non-existent mergers. This thesis changes some conventional understanding for M&A activity. Cross border M&A activity is underpinned by various motives such as synergy, management discipline, and acquisition of complementary resources. Traditionally, it is believed that these motives will boost the international M&A activity and improve firm performance after takeovers. However, this thesis shows that such factors based on these motives as acquirer’s profitability and liquidity and target’s intangible resource actually deter the completion of cross border M&A in the period of 2002-2011. The overall finding suggests that the cross border M&A is the efficiency-seeking activity rather than the resource-seeking activity. Furthermore, compared with firms in takeover rumours, the completion of M&A lowers firm performance. More specifically, the difficulties in transfer of competitive advantages and integration of strategic assets lead to low firm performance in terms of productivity. Besides, firms cannot realise the synergistic effect and managerial disciplinary effect once a cross border M&A is completed, which suggests a low post-acquisition profitability level.

Content and drivers of performance management in agency-type organizations of the hungarian public administration

The improving performance of public administration and the reform of public financing system have been on agenda in Hungary for many years, in accordance with the international trends. However, governments have not expected and supported creating of a performance-oriented public administration in a comprehensive and explicit way. Nevertheless, there are bottom-up initiatives at organizational level, which target performance-oriented organizational function. The research focuses on organizations of central public administration where the successful application of performance management methods is most likely based on the international literature. These are the so called agency-type organizations, which are in Hungary called autonomous state-administration organizations independent of the Government (e.g. Hungarian Competition Authority), government bureaus (e.g. Hungarian Central Statistical Office), and central offices subordinated to the government (either the cabinet or a ministry) (e.g. Hungarian Meteorological Service). The studied agencies are legally independent organizations with managerial autonomy based on public law. The purpose of this study is to get an overview on organizational level performance management tools applied by Hungarian agencies, and to reveal the reasons and drivers of the application of these tools. The empirical research is based on a mixed methods approach which combines both quantitative methods and qualitative procedures. The first – quantitative – phase of the author’s research was content analysis of homepages of the studied organizations. As a results she got information about all agencies and their practice related to some performance management tools. The second – qualitative – phase was based on semi-structured face-to-face interviews with some senior managers of agencies. The author selected the interviewees based on the results of the first phase, the relatively strong performance orientation was an important selection criteria.